Day: November 4, 2012

What Demographic Groups Will Vote For Barack Obama And Joe Biden? And Who For Mitt Romney And Paul Ryan?

It is clear that this Presidential Election of 2012 will see clear-cut splits in the population, unseen in modern history.

The following groups will clearly vote a majority (fifty percent plus one) for Barack Obama and Joe Biden:

Men–More Educated
Women-More Educated, Single
African Americans
Asian Americans
Native Americans
Young People under 34
Middle Aged People 35-54
Jews–Less Religious
Catholics–Less Religious
Secular Voters
Gays and Lesbians
Veterans–Young and Middle Age
College Graduates
Urban Residents
Suburban Voters
Civil Libertarians
Northeast and New England
Midwest Except Indiana and Missouri
Mountain States Of Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico
Pacific Coast and Hawaii

Who will clearly vote in a majority for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan?

Whites–less educated, rural, men and women
Men–less educated and particularly from South
Women–less educated, married, more religious, rural
Wealthy–top two percent
Corporate World
Senior Citizens Who Are White and Christian
Voters 55-64 Who Are White and Christian
Religious Voters, Christian and Jewish
Cuban Americans
Rural Voters
Those With Less Than A Four Year College Degree
Southern States, except Florida and Virginia
Great Plains States
Portions of Midwest and Mountain States, and Alaska
White Working Class in South and Midwest
Tea Party Movement supporters
Conspiracy Theory Believers
“Racial Problem” Voters
High School Graduates or Dropouts

This represents the greatest divisiveness of our nation in probably the past hundred and forty years, and does not bode well for future cooperation in dealing with national problems, both domestic and foreign. Conflict, rather than consensus, is a very disturbing trend in our society!

Final Projection On Presidential Race: Obama-Biden 332 Electoral Votes, Romney-Ryan 206 Electoral Votes

This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.

Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.

The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!

So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.

Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.

It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.

Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.

Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.

This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.

Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!

Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!

Mitt Romney Shows His True Character, With His Campaign Criticizing New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

Mitt Romney’s campaign is rapidly imploding, and Romney’s spokesman is now criticizing New Jersey Governor Chris Christie for praising President Barack Obama for his quick response to Hurricane Sandy, including touring the area of devastation with Christie.

Rupert Murdoch and other conservatives are already laying the base for blaming Romney’s defeat on Christie, and Romney aides are claiming that Christie is annoyed that he was bypassed for Vice President.

This whole event just demonstrates further how Romney is not fit to be our President, since he does not give a damn for the “47 percent”, and for the Northeast, since he knows he will not be gaining their electoral support on Tuesday. The fact that Christie is doing what he needs to do for his state does not seem to cross Romney’s selfish, mean spirited personality, but it is clear that he is not the proper person to lead us into the future!

Final House Of Representatives Division: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats—A 15 Seat Gain By Democrats

This author’s prediction on the House of Representatives elections is much more difficult, since trying to follow the race in 435 Congressional districts is overwhelming.

But it seems clear that the Republican Party will keep control, as with the gain of the Governorship and state legislative control in many states in 2010, the Republicans had the edge in reapportionment of district lines in the House.

Having said that, the discontent with the Tea Party Movement control of the GOP growing, it seems likely that the Democrats will gain seats, about 15, and make the next House competition in 2014 give them the opportunity for takeover.

Needing a minimum of 25 seats this time, the Democrats will gain, maybe, 60 percent of that, with 15, putting them within reach to gain control with a 10 seat gain two years from now.

The real battle for now will be whether Speaker John Boehner stays, or Eric Cantor mounts a “coup”, and whether Nancy Pelosi remains Minority Leader, or loses it to Minority Whip Steny Hoyer!

Final US Senate Projections: Democrats Gain One Seat, Should Have A Margin Of 54-46

This author has stated in the past couple of weeks that the US Senate would stay Democratic, and that seems more certain now than ever.

With any gain by Mitt Romney in polls stopped by Hurricane Sandy and the working of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with President Barack Obama, it seems likely that the Democrats will win what was predicted before, a one seat gain. In some states, the popularity of the Democratic Senate candidate might actually carry Obama over the top, rather than the other way around.

So here are my final projections:

The Republicans have ten seats up for election, and will keep six–but lose in Arizona, with Democrat Richard Carmona defeating Republican Jeff Flake; in Indiana, with Democrat Joe Donnelly defeating Republican Richard Mourdock; in Maine, with Independent Angus King defeating his two opponents in the major parties; and in Massachusetts, where Democrat Elizabeth Warren will defeat Scott Brown.

The Democrats have 23 seats up for reelection, and should keep eleven without any trouble, leaving 12 up for play, and are likely to win five others that are in contention—Bill Nelson in Florida; Debbie Stebanow in Michigan; Claire McCaskill in Missouri; Jon Tester in Montana; and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

That leaves seven seats which will definitely have a new Senator–and Virginia should see Democrat Tim Kaine defeat Republican George Allen; Democrat Chris Murphy win over Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut; Democrat Tammy Baldwin defeat Republican Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin; and Democrat Mazie Hirono defeat Republican Linda Lingle in Hawaii.

However, three other Democratic seats will probably be lost, regrettably—including Democrat Bob Kerrey losing to Republican Deb Fischer, a Tea Party favorite in Nebraska; Democrat Martin Heinrich losing to Republican Heather Wilson in New Mexico; and Democrat Heidi Heitkamp losing to Republican Rick Berg in North Dakota.

So this all adds up to four seats taken from the Republicans, but three seats taken from the Democrats, so that adds up to a Senate of:

54 Democrats (including Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine)
46 Republicans

So therefore a ONE SEAT gain by the Democrats!

American Jews, Israel And Barack Obama: Why Two Thirds Of Jews Will Support Obama Over Mitt Romney

With two days to go until the election, the Republican Jewish Coalition has been actively trying to convince American Jews that Barack Obama is not supportive of Israel, and that they should support Mitt Romney for President.

Will the RJC succeed? To some extent, yes, in the sense that while 78 percent of American Jews backed Barack Obama in 2008, the number will be down to about 60-63 percent in 2012.

There are those Jews who are extremely wealthy and do not wish to pay more taxes, such as the group which met in Boca Raton, at the infamous gathering where Romney talked about the “47 percent”. Those who are corporate, Wall Street, and banking related will wish to have the government abandon any regulations, so they can go about their merry way abusing their industries, as they did in 2008. and earlier, without any care for the damage they were doing to the American economy!

Those who are highly religious will use it as a means to promote prejudice, based on the belief that Obama is a secret Muslim, and of course, being black, is not a plus to highly religious people, whether Jewish or Christian, a sad commentary on what the meaning of religion is all about!

Those who look at Israel as the number one issue will wish to allow Benjamin Netanyahu to influence American policy, even though if any other foreign leader ever attempted to interfere as Netanyahu has, they would be infuriated by such boldness of a foreign leader!

But American Jews, while caring about Israel, will not allow Netanyahu, or religiosity, or counting their money, to be the key factors in their voting. So yes, the percentage will be down, but Jews who do not allow any of the above to influence them will remember that Obama and his party are the party of the New Deal and Great Society reforms, which Romney and the Republicans wish to destroy!

They will know that it was REPUBLICAN Presidents who made life much more difficult for Israel, including Dwight D. Eisenhower, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, even though the RJC conveniently manipulates the truth about that

They will know that Defense Minister Ehud Barak (a former Prime Minister); Shimon Peres (Israel’s President); Haaretz (the oldest Israeli daily newspaper); Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel; and most prominent American Jewish leaders have all endorsed Obama, or said that he has been the best friend of Israel of all American Presidents.

They will know that most American Presidents either never visited Israel, or not in their first term, despite the lies of the RJC.

They will know that Obama has supplied Israel with the IRONDOME missile defense system, and more than $3.1 billion in security spending beyond that, and has defended Israel consistently in international organizations, including the United Nations.

They know that George W. Bush also talked about the 1967 borders as a beginning point for negotiations, the same thing that Barack Obama said.

They know the Jewish tradition of being activists in civil rights; of supporting women’s rights; of being big promoters of labor unions; of being involved in promoting education and the environment on a regular basis; and advocates of aid to the disabled; and of always being against the negativism of the Republican Party on domestic matters, always resisting Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid and every other social, economic and political reform the Democrats have promoted over the past century.

They know that the party of the people is NOT the Republicans, but the Democrats, and they are not about to abandon the party that has done so much good, particularly when we could see the alternative of the most right wing threat in American history since Barry Goldwater in 1964!

American Jews are OVERWHELMINGLY oriented toward reform, progress, change, compassion for those who are discriminated against and less fortunate, and they are intelligent and wise enough not to vote for the party of Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and right wing evangelicals who wish to take away our civil liberties and civil rights!

So close to two thirds of American Jews will repudiate the RJC, and support their President, Barack Obama!

Nate Silver Convincing That Barack Obama Will Be Reelected President On Tuesday

Nate Silver, the most legitimate prognosticator on the American political scene, who writes for the NY TIMES, has upped the ante on the reelection of Barack Obama to the White House with his declaration that the odds for Obama have been raised to 85 percent, based on 19 of 22 polls in the “swing states” in the past few days, showing him ahead.

Silver has always put Obama in the lead, but now, after Hurricane Sandy, his odds of winning have gone up.

So despite the Gallup and Rasmussen polls that show a near deadlock, Silver claims that Mitt Romney winning is a real gamble, and would not be worth a bet, unless one is prepared to lose a large amount of money!

We all know about the Gallup polls of 1948, which were totally wrong, but this is NOT 1948, and the thought is that the Gallup and Rasmussen polls are wrong, and that Nate Silver and the polls that show Obama winning are correct.

This author has always believed that Obama would win, based on his record, and the multiple faults and weaknesses of Mitt Romney and his campaign.

In about 60 hours, we shall know!