As a result of the “Blue Tsunami” that occurred on Election Day 2026, the Democratic Party has major advantages in the upcoming Presidential Electlon of 2028.
We start off with the 19 states and DC won by Kamala Harris in 2024, a total of 226 electoral votes. These states in New England, the Northeast, the Midwest, the Southwest, and the Pacific Coast and Hawaii, are certain to remain Democratic, as they are the stronghold of the Democratic Party in many past elections. One electoral vote in Maine, which allows division of their electoral votes, was lost in 2024, but the total as it was that year was 226 electoral votes.
Then, a large group of states (11) that were Republican in 2024, have switched massively to the Democrats.
Texas is the big “catch”, having moved away dramatically from Republicans, and electing Democrats to all state executive positions including the Governorship, along with a Democratic Senator and a number of Democratic House members being elected to the Congress.
So the odds are that if Texas follows the trend they are now on, their 40 electoral votes would add to the 226 from 2024, making the total 266, just four electoral votes from winning the Presidency, with or without the majority of the popular vote.
Add just one of the states who switched from Republican to Democrat outside of Texas, and it would be enough to gain 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win, meaning a total of 21 states, because of Texas being added to the Democratic states.
This includes the following ten additional states:
Pennsylvania 19 electoral votes
Ohio 17 electoral votes
North Carolina 16 electoral votes
Georgia 16 electoral votes
Michigan 15 electoral votes
Arizona 11 electoral votes
Wisconsin 10 electoral votes
Nevada 6 electoral votes
Iowa 6 electoral votes
Kansas 6 electoral votes
These ten states all elected Democrats for Governor, with Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Iowa, and Kansas, all switching from Republican state control as a result of the midterm election.
If Texas goes Democratic with its 40 electoral votes, then at the least, either Iowa, Kansas, or Nevada, all with 6 electoral votes, would be enough to reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes.
If Texas goes back to the Republicans, only a minimum of 44 electoral votes need to be won by the Democrats, which means if Pennsylvania (19), Ohio (17), and North Carolina or Georgia (both 16) went to the Democrats, that would be enough to gain 270 electoral votes, and the Presidency.
And the other six states listed, if they combined, they would reach exactly the number of 54, 10 more than needed, so one could leave out Wisconsin in theory, to win 270 electoral votes.
If all 10 states above AND Texas went to the Democrats in 2028, which is certainly possible, the grand total of the electoral vote, with a total of 30 states and DC, would be 388 electoral votes, with Republicans winning 20 states and 150 electoral votes.
So at this time, two years ahead of the Presidential Election of 2028, one could conclude that the Democrats have a 90 percent chance of electing the next President of the United States.