Michigan

Six Months To Presidential And Congressional Elections

It is precisely six months to the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2024, and polls indicate an extremely tight race for both the White House and control of both houses of Congress.

However, the fact that Donald Trump is unleashing lunatic statements and authoritarian threats daily, and is mired in a courtroom four days a week, are negatives that are affecting independent voters and undecided voters.

And abortion rights is seen as a definite loser for Trump and Republicans, as the vast majority of those polled, and particularly among women, clearly want women to control their own bodies and destinies.

The issue of the Israel-Hamas War, while creating problems for Joe Biden in Michigan, in particular, seems likely to calm down, as Muslims and Arabs voting for Donald Trump would not promote a different policy, as Trump has a record of working to persecute Muslims and support Israel.

The economy, and particularly inflation, is an issue, but one must remember that Trump did promote the largest tax cut and increase of the national debt for any one term President, and the economy was in free fall due to his inability to deal with the COVID 19 pandemic adequately.

The fight for control of both houses of Congress will be a bitter one, with the likelihood that both houses will have very small margins of the majority, with the House of Representatives likely to go Democratic, but the US Senate likely, at this point, to swing Republican.

So federal judge appointments and more environmental executive orders are crucial for the Democrats and Joe Biden to accomplish in the next six months.

And constantly reminding Americans of the danger to American Democracy cannot be emphasized enough.

Wisconsin And Michigan: Republican Party Beginnings And Ultimate Battleground In 2024 Presidential Election!

The Republican Party was founded in 1854, in the upper Midwest, with its founding on March 20 in Ripon, Wisconsin, and its first party convention held in Jackson, Michigan on July 6.

It was a reform oriented party, opposed to the expansion of slavery, and would dominate in the United States over the next seven decades until the rise of the Democratic Party, Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal in the midst of the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Interestingly, the Republican National Convention in July will be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, so in a sense a return to the roots of the party of 170 years of history.

However, the Republican Party of history basically can be seen as dead, gone, unlikely to be revived in a form reminiscent of the party’s history, as Donald Trump and his MAGA followers have totally destroyed the roots and the base of the historical Republican Party!

This is the ulimate battleground in the Presidential Election of 2024, as whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins the upper Midwest ultimately will determine who is elected to the Oval Office!

Two Crucial Democratic Issues That Can Be Used Against Donald Trump And Republicans—Abortion And Safety Net!

With the Presidential Election 2024 campaign now in full swing, Democrats and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris need to put great emphasis on many issues, but two stick out in particular.

The right of women to control their own bodies and reproductive lives has been prevented by Donald Trump and his right wing appointments to the Supreme Court. But that battle already has seen several states reject abortion limitations:

Vermont
Ohio
Kentucky
Michigan
Kansas
Montana
California

And this abortion rights struggle is a massive commitment that must be fought in state after state!

Also, the issue of protection of the social safety net,specifically Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, has been a constant battle for decades, as Republicans have continued to attempt to cut funding and take away these wonderful programs started by Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal in the 1930s, and Lyndon B. Johnson and the Great Society in the 1960s!

“Battleground” States Should Be Expanded By Democrats!

With an expected very close race for the Presidency between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and with three independent or third party challengers being an additional threat to take away votes from the major party candidates, it is urgent that the list of “battleground” states be expanded by Democrats!

The usual belief is that the following states are the “battlegrounds”:

Pennsylvania (19)
Michigan (15)
Wisconsin (10)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Nevada (6)

Total 77 Electoral Votes

But in addition, the following states need to be considered potentials for extra attention financially and through campaign appearances by Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and numerous Democratic supporters in public office:

New Hampshire (4)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (16)
Florida (30)
Minnesota (10)
New Mexico (5)

Total 78 Electoral Votes

Additionally, the Second District of Maine which has gone Republican in the past (2016 and 2020) should be focused on, as well as retaining the Second District of Nebraska, which has gone Democratic two times in the past (2008 and 2020), with both states allowing divided electoral votes for President.

So a total of 12 states and one Congressional District in Nebraska and Maine should be focused on to insure a Democratic victory in November!

So out of 538 Electoral Votes total, 157 are in play!

Presidential Election Of 2024 Likely To Hinge On Six States!

It is very clear that American politics has reached the stage where it can be quite certain that the Presidential Election of 2024 will hinge on six states, where both major party Presidential candidates will spend most of their time and effort on winning just those six states that are likely to be in play!

The Republican nominee, almost certainly Donald Trump, will have the clearcut edge in states with 235 electoral votes, and Democratic President Joe Biden will have the advantage in states with 226 electoral votes.

So 77 electoral votes in six states will decide who wins the White House!

Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada

The nation is so bitterly divided that now it all comes down to these six states, unless there turns out to be a suprise.

And in future elections, other states could be in play, depending on voting patterns of new and younger voters!

It used to be that more states were in play, but in the past generation, parties have tended to gain dominance in many states!

If Trump Is Convicted, Estimate That Seven Percent Of His Supporters Would Abandon Him, Enough To Elect Joe Biden!

As the primary season begins, indications are that IF Donald Trump is convicted on any of the 91 counts against him over four trials, that it would insure that Trump would be unable to win the Presidency.

An estimate is that at least SEVEN percent of Trump supporters now would abandon him if he was convicted, and facing prison time.

That seven percent may sound as not much, but it is believed it would be the margin of victory for President Joe Biden in key battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all states that Biden won in 2020, before the criminal actions of Donald Trump!

One must recall that Donald Trump has never won the popular vote, and could ill afford to lose seven percent of his support upon a conviction, which seems certain on at least some of the counts against him, as the evidence in the four cases coming up in future months is very strong!

And the belief is that third party or independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, and even a No Labels candidate for the White House would, when push came to shove, do very poorly, reminding us of the Presidential Election of 1948, when two known political leaders, Strom Thurmond and Henry A. Wallace, both expected to undermine Harry Truman against Republican Thomas E. Dewey, both flopped dramatically!

Donald Trump Bragging About Ending Abortion Rights Will Cause His And Republicans’ Downfall!

Donald Trump undermined his own candidacy when he went on Fox News Channel at the same time that his rivals, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, were debating on CNN.

Trump bragged about ending Roe V Wade, abortion rights, which had existed for a half century, and that reality has already hurt Republicans in seven states—Ohio, California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Vermont, and Kansas, with all but California and Vermont being Republican or contestable states in the Presidential Election of 2024.

The following states are having battles over putting abortion access on the ballot, with abortion rights advocates hoping they will have enough signatures to insure it is on the ballot with the Presidential and Congressional Elections coming up in November 2024.

Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Maryland
Missouri
Nebraska
Nevada
New York
Pennsylvania
South Dakota
Washington

Some of the above states already still allow abortion access, but want to put it on the ballot to insure the future right.

The majority of women, racial minorities, educated people, and young voters will have success in restoring the rights of women over their own bodies, as there is no concern about the lives of prengant women who are endangered by their medical conditions while pregnant.

This is causing the deaths of women, and some surviving, but no longer able to have children due to dictatorial state governments interfering with the right to choose their reproductive lives!

Abortion Rights And Attack On ObamaCare By Trump Helps Democrats

Donald Trump bragging about the end of abortion rights, and his renewed attack on the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) are two issues that seem likely to insure that the Democrats and Joe Biden will have issues that will resonate with voters in the Presidential Election Of 2024.

About 40 million people benefit from ObamaCare and Medicaid expansion coverage available due to the Affordable Care Act.

Abortion being legal and available has been supported in Kansas, Vermont, Montana, Michigan, Kentucky, California and Ohio since the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs V. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, and has galvanized those who believe in women’s rights and civil rights.

Abortion Rights Score A Big Victory In 2023 Elections!

Abortion Rights won the day yesterday in the 2023 elections!

Ohio voters by 14 points agreed to put abortion rights into the state Constitution.

Virginia voters gave Democrats control of both houses of the state legislature, a blow to Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who was promoting abortion restrictions to be put into state law.

Kentucky reelected Democratic Governor Andy Beshear who promoted abortion rights, which already had been supported earlier by citizen vote in 2022.

So now, 8 states have rejected the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe V Wade, including

Kansas in August 2022

Vermont, Montana, Michigan, Kentucky, California in November 2022

Kentucky again yesterday, along with Ohio and Virginia

Religious people have a right to their views, but NOT to impose it on the entire population, and to dictate the reproductive lives of American women!

One Year To Presidential Election Of 2024, And Joe Biden Looks In Bad Shape!

With one year to the Presidential Election Of 2024, President Joe Biden looks in bad shape, based on a New York Times-Siena College poll.

According to the poll, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in five of six swing state—4 points in Pennsylvania; 5 points in Michigan and Arizona; 6 points in Georgia; 10 points in Nevada; and with Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 2 points.

These statistics are stunning and worrisome, but one must realize that the history of polling shows one year out is no judgment of what will occur on Election Day.

One year ahead, there were no predictions that Harry Truman would win a full term in 1948; or that John F. Kennedy would win in 1960; or Richard Nixon would win in 1968; or Jimmy Carter (an unknown) would win in 1976; or Ronald Reagan would win in 1980; or Bill Clinton would win in 1992; or George W. Bush would win in 2000; or that Barack Obama would win in 2008; or that Donald Trump would win in 2016.

Also, one must realize that never has a President lost reelection to an opponent he had first defeated since Benjamin Harrison lost reelection to Grover Cleveland in 1892.

And with Donald Trump likely to be convicted on some of the 91 charges over four indictments in the next year, to believe that he will be able to defeat the man who defeated him, for the first time in 132 years, is to be living in an era of delusion.

Assuming that the economy will continue to do better, and with international crises a major factor, the President in office is, historically, highly likely to win reelection, particularly against someone who represents chaos, corruption, and incompetence, and as a threat to the American democratic system and to international stability!

But it is also clear that the message and the efforts to reelect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and insure a Democratic controlled House of Representatives and Senate must move full scale ahead, as there is no time for any sense of relaxation about the future of the nation and the world at large!