Suburban Voters

Nikki Haley Vote Percentage After Leaving Presidential Race A Danger Sign For Donald Trump!

Nikki Haley dropped out of the Presidential campaign two months ago, having only won DC and Vermont, but gaining often one third of the primary vote in the states she lost to Donald Trump.

Since then, amazingly, she has racked up 13-25 percent of the vote in later Republican primaries despite having withdrawn from the race, and in some suburban counties in these states even higher at times.

She did this in crucial states, including Indiana, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.

And Donald Trump has made no moves to appeal to Haley or her supporters, while Joe Biden is making every effort to appeal to Haley supporters to “cross the aisle”.

This is an encouraging sign for Democrats.

New Polling Shows Hillary Clinton Strength Stronger Than Barack Obama In 2012: Danger Sign For Republican Presidential Hopes In 2016!

Despite recent criticism of Hillary Clinton on her emails and on her Clinton Foundation raising of funds from nations that abuse women, and her image of being too close to Wall Street, and too “Hawkish” in foreign policy, a new polling indicates that she is very strong, and way ahead of any of her Republican Presidential opponents for 2016.

The polls shows that Hillary Clinton does well among basic Democratic constituencies who supported Barack Obama twice, but also does BETTER among other constituencies which were not as strong for President Barack Obama, as she is demonstrating she is at this point of the Presidential campaign.

Clinton does much better among the following:

Suburban voters
Working Class Whites

These are crucial voting groups, with the first two groups particularly a lot stronger for Hillary than Barack Obama, while women supported Obama, but not as strong as Hillary does.

And then, there is the group that is unique to Hillary Clinton in their emotional support: the so called “Clintonites”, those totally loyal and fanatical to everything Clinton, who love and adore her husband Bill Clinton, see no wrong in anything the Clintons say or do, and who feel that Hillary Clinton was robbed, denied, what she was entitled to in 2008—the White House!

With this strength among these groups, it now seems, at least for the time being, that Hillary Clinton, despite faults and shortcomings, is on a steam roller that will not be able to be stopped by any Republican nominee for the White House!

It also shows the likelihood that Hillary Clinton could win more states and electoral votes than Barack Obama did in 2012, with a declining white population participation, and a growing minority population participation, estimated to be a 70-30 split in 2016, as compared to 72-28 in the 2012 Presidential campaign.

The Census Figures And The Republican Party: Not What It Seems!

When the census figures came out a week ago, Republicans were rejoicing as the Sunbelt gained seats in the House of Representatives and in the Electoral College vote for President, but the true tale is that the growth of population does NOT favor the GOP long term, particularly if the Republicans do not adjust to the reality of immigration.

It is true that Texas and Florida gained four and two seats in the House of Representatives, along with one seat for Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South Carolina, Utah and Washington State.

But much of the growth in population was Hispanic or Latino, and with the GOP promoting a hard line on immigration, and preventing passage of the DREAM Act for immigrant children, there is a likelihood that Hispanics will NOT vote Republican in these states, and as the voting population grows in these areas, the Democrats have a very good chance of gaining power in many of the Sunbelt states over the next decade.

Additionally, the demographics shows the suburbs of major cities, which used to be reliably Republican, no longer are. The astounding statistic is that John McCain, who had more of an open mind on immigration when he ran for the Presidency in 2008, managed to lose all of the suburban counties surrounding New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit and Boston, as well as the majority of suburban counties surrounding St. Louis and Cleveland. Additionally, except for Orange Country, McCain lost all suburban counties in southern California, and won Orange County by the smallest margin of any Republican in modern times!

Women have been historically Democratic, and independents have moved in that direction, except in 2010, which is likely a blip on the map, not a trend. And even rich people and counties are more than ever moving toward the Democrats, and contributing more to the Democrats.

Not all rich people vote their pocketbook, but also vote on social issues, and the reality is that the number of “have nots” will always outnumber the “haves”, so for the GOP to work against the interests of the struggling middle class, as well as the poor, is counter productive in the long run.

So while the GOP might control redistricting in many significant states and have Governors of their party in control, trying to project a long term Republican advantage electorally is far from guaranteed!