Census Of 2010

Puerto Rican Migration To Florida In Two Months 200,000, Double Original Estimate: A Harbinger Of Florida Turning “Blue” In Future Presidential Elections

Ronald 6 Comments

The effects of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico will change future Presidential elections, with the Democratic Party winning the state in future contests for the White House.

Puerto Rico is losing a substantial portion of its citizenry due to the slow and inadequate response on the island to this natural disaster by the Trump Administration.

Some Puerto Ricans, all of whom are citizens of the US, and can register to vote immediately, have migrated to New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, but the vast majority, more than 200,00, double the original estimate, have moved to Florida, preferring warm weather.

Most have settled in Central Florida, in the Orlando and Tampa areas, with the Puerto Rican population having multiplied since the 2010 Census, while a lesser number have moved to South Florida.

As long as these citizens register and vote, the largest number will vote Democratic, and in close races for the White House, that can make a difference, and it could also, over time, affect state elections for Governor and other executive offices, as well as the state legislature.

When Florida becomes reliably “Blue”, it will add 29 electoral votes in the 2020 Presidential election, and more than that once reapportionment of seats based on the 2020 Census, and in time for the 2024 and 2028 Presidential elections.

And when the Hispanic vote of any part of Latin America becomes larger and reliably Democratic, except for Cuban Americans then Georgia, Arizona, and eventually Texas will be “Blue”, and the Republicans are doomed on the Presidential level.

Only by voter suppression and discrimination will the GOP have a chance to win, and one can be sure they will use every imaginable tactic to prevent Hispanic voting, so Democrats have to work incessantly to insure that Hispanics are not denied the right to vote, including law suits to stop this disgraceful tactic of the party that, more than ever, represents the Tea Party mentality.

Final Projection On Presidential Race: Obama-Biden 332 Electoral Votes, Romney-Ryan 206 Electoral Votes

Ronald 6 Comments

This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.

Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.

The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!

So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.

Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.

It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.

Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.

Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.

This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.

Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!

Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!

“Swing” States Down To Eight, Narrowing Romney Chances Of Winning Presidency!

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The Mitt Romney Presidential campaign has decided to buy advertising time on television in only eight states, narrowing the chance that the former Massachusetts Governor can win the Presidency.

Eliminated as places of opportunity are Michigan, the birthplace and childhood of Romney, and the state that his father was Governor in the 1960s; Wisconsin, the birthplace and home of his running mate, Paul Ryan; and Pennsylvania, despite the well known white male battleground of western Pennsylvania, often thought to be an Achilles Heel for Barack Obama!

So what are the states still in play?

New Hampshire–4 electoral votes
Virginia–13 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Colorado–9 electoral votes
Nevada–6 electoral votes

The total electoral votes in play are 100, while Obama leads with 247 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney has 191 electoral votes from 23 states. Remember that the winner of the election must have 270 electoral votes.

So, with the updated realities that even Romney’s advertising campaign reflects, Obama wins If

he wins Florida (29 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Virginia (31 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and North Carolina (33 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Iowa or Nevada (24 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Colorado (27 electoral votes)
he wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Colorado (24 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Iowa and Nevada (27 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Iowa and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire (26 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia, Colorado, and either Iowa or Nevada (28 electoral votes)

So these are ELEVEN scenarios where Barack Obama has the advantage–needing only between one and four states of the eight “swing” states to win the Presidency in the Electoral College!

The unemployment rate is lower than the national average in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa, while higher in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

So if one were to assume that the four states that have the lower unemployment rate than the national average go to Obama, he wins 41 electoral votes, for a grand total of 288 electoral votes.

Of course, there are five states, that are considered “red” or Republican states, that actually are in play, although expected to go to Romney. These are Indiana (11 electoral votes), which went to Obama in 2008; Missouri (10 electoral votes), which was won by John McCain in 2008 by only about 4,000 votes; Montana (3 electoral votes), which is becoming more Democratic; Arizona (11 electoral votes), which is moving toward Democratic over time with the growing Hispanic vote, and the controversial immigration law under Governor Jan Brewer; and Georgia (16 electoral votes), which is gaining a large Hispanic population, which means it will likely trend Democratic over the next few election cycles. Were all of these to go Democratic in a close vote situation, Obama could, theoretically, win 51 more electoral votes!

So, IF Obama were to win all of the eight “swing states” now in play, based on Romney’s decision as to what states to spend money on advertising, he would go from what seems clearly 247 electoral votes to 347 electoral votes–meaning he would have won all of the states he won in 2008, except for Indiana!

This is 18 electoral votes fewer than in 2008, when Obama won 365 electoral votes–due to the theoretical loss of Indiana (11 electoral votes), plus the fact that the states he won lost a total of 7 electoral votes due to reapportionment of seats in Congress, based on the 2010 Census.

But IF Obama were to win the “red” states that could be in play, listed above, a total of five states with 51 electoral votes, his highest theoretical total of electoral votes would reach 398 electoral votes, meaning Romney would win only 140 electoral votes, with Obama winning 32 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney winning 18 states!

The ultimate point of this discussion is to make it clear that the odds of Obama being re-elected are very high, despite the supposedly tight popular vote on a national level, which really proves nothing, as the polls on popular vote in the eight “swing” states demonstrate that Obama is ahead in all of them, except in North Carolina and Colorado, so to bet against Obama would be a losing bet, best thought about before being placed, as the odds of losing large amounts of money is extremely a likely occurrence!

Asian Population Growth More Rapid Than Hispanic Population Growth: US Census Of 2010

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The US Census Bureau had released further information regarding the 2010 Census, and it shows that people of Asian heritage have grown even faster in percentage than those of Hispanic or Latino origin.

Asian population growth is nearly 46 percent, while Hispanic and Latino population has increased by 43 percent.

The number of Hispanics and Latinos number about 50.5 million, while the number of Asians is about 17.3 million. The number of African Americans has grown slower, but is at about 39 million.

About 16 percent of the nation is now Hispanic or Latino, while 13 percent is African American, and 6 percent is Asian, making for 35 percent of the nation non white.

The largest Asian groups are in order Chinese, Filipinos, Asian Indian, Vietnamese, Korean, and Japanese. Small numbers are from Thailand and Pakistan.

Asian is defined as people from the Far East, Southeast Asia, or the Indian subcontinent, but not including those from Southwest Asia or the Middle East.

Regionally, the number of Asians in the Western states was about 46 percent of the total, followed by 22 percent in the South, almost 20 percent in the Northeast, and 12 percent in the Midwest.

What is perfectly clear is that the estimate that the majority of Americans by the mid 2040s will be non white is becoming more likely every year!

So one day, we are likely to have a President or Presidents who are Hispanic or Latino, and also Asian, making the experience with our first African American President, Barack Obama, an excellent “learning curve” for those who imagine that the white population will continue to dominate.

Ladies and Gentlemen, face the facts and face the future, and do not see the future with trepidation, but rather with pride!

Women In American Political Offices By Election: 1917-Present

Ronald 1 Comment

On this 4th of July, it is a good time to recount how women have fared in American electoral politics.

As of today, 17 women are serving as US Senators, with a total of 39 women historically who have served in the upper chamber since 1922.

A total of 72 women are now serving in the US House of Representatives, with 229 women having served since 1917 in the chamber.

Presently, six women are serving as Governors of their states, with 35 having served in that capacity since 1925, and a maximum of nine women at the same time.

Two states, Iowa and Mississippi, have seen women only rise to a top position as Lieutenant Governor, rather than Governor, Senator or Congresswoman.

We have come a long way since 87-94 years ago when the first women reached elected office, but with 83 percent of office holders in Congress still male, and 88 percent of the Governors still males, and with women being a majority of the population (51 to 49) in the 2010 Census, it is certainly time for more women to run for public office, and to be involved in the governing of our nation in the future!

The Extreme Radicalism And Looniness Of Michele Bachmann: A Real Threat To America’s Future!

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Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann gained a lot of attention by her performance in the Republican New Hampshire debate last Monday.

Many people are starting to notice her, and many social conservatives are ecstatic about her, and think she might have a shot at the GOP Presidential nomination.

Before we go any further along the road to President Michele Bachmann, let’s look at her record of statements and actions!

1. She said in 2004 that the LION KING was promoting gay propaganda. She is extremely anti gay, despite the fact of having gay relatives.
2. She claimed that many jobs would be created if the minimum wage was abolished, something that clearly is preposterous.
3. She asserted that “intelligent design” was supported by Nobel Prize winning scientists, a total falsehood.
4. She stated that carbon dioxide is not a dangerous gas, while it is well known that in large amounts, it is causing climate change.
5. She accused Democrats in Congress of being anti American and called for an investigation of their backgrounds, a new McCarthyism.
6. She advocated that her constituents refuse to fill out the 2010 Census, until she realized that if that was done in her Congressional district, she would lose her seat, as her constituents would not be counted as part of the population.
7. She has stated the belief that talk show host Glenn Beck could solve the issue of the national debt.

Is anything else necessary to say about Michele Bachmann?

She is crazy, loony, against anything that would improve the lives of the middle class or poor people, an ally of the corporations and the religious right, a mean spirited bigot whose attractive looks belie the truth: She would be a total disaster for America’s future!

Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich: “Carpetbagger” In Washington State?

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With reapportionment of seats about to take place in the House Of Representatives, based on the census figures, some states are gaining seats, while others are losing seats.

The Sun Belt is gaining seats, as they have done every decade since the 1950s, while the Frost Belt Northeast and Midwestern states, specifically the large ones, are losing seats.

This leads to some House members being gerrymandered into races against fellow members of the House of the same party, leaving the reality that some will be pushed out of their positions either by primary elections, or by reality setting in that they cannot compete in a primary or election in the new district and have a good chance of victory.

Such a circumstance is now faced by Cleveland Congressman Dennis Kucinich, one of the most liberal and most controversial Democrats in Congress.

Kucinich, who was Mayor of Cleveland, acquiring the name “Dennis the Menace”; member of the Cleveland City Council later; and then has been a Congressman from Cleveland for eight terms, is faced with elimination unless he chooses to move somewhere else in another state which is gaining seats.

Kucinich, a national figure because of having competed for the Presidency in 2004 and 2008, was recently in the Seattle area of Washington State, which will gain a seat, trying to measure whether it was a good fit for a Congressional race, with Seattle being a progressive stronghold.

While it is required that a member of the House of Representatives must have a residence in the district he or she represents, in the year of reapportionment, the member can move into the district AFTER he or she has been elected, as often, even for members who keep their congressional seat, the boundaries have changed because of reapportionment, so new housing arrangements must be made, but it can be AFTER being elected to the new district seat.

The question is whether it is proper for Kucinich to do what he plans to do, and the answer is yes!

Why is that? Well, Washington State does not have a residency requirement in the state for someone to run for public office, much like New York State, which has had three non residents or “Carpetbaggers” run for and win a Senate seat–Robert Kennedy in 1964, James Buckley in 1970, and Hillary Clinton in 2000.

While there is no recent case of a “Carpetbagger” Congressman, it is not illegal or a first time situation, and what it all comes down to is that this is based on democracy! What the people of that particular new Congressional district in Seattle want, they are entitled to get. If the case can be made by a native Washingtonian that he or she should be elected over a well known Congressman from Cleveland, Ohio, it will rule the day!

The word “Carpetbagger”, originating as a derogatory term in the Reconstruction South, should not be looked at in such a manner, as even most of the so called “Carpetbaggers” in the Southern states, who were Congressmen, Senators, or Governors, actually performed well in office, and the term is therefore just political propaganda to be ignored as a myth of American history!

Census Revelations: Upper New England And West Virginia Replace Florida As Oldest Population

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The 2010 Census reveals that Upper New England and West Virginia have replaced Florida as the oldest population states.

Maine is now the oldest state in average age, followed by Vermont, West Virginia and New Hampshire.

What this also reveals is that these four states, all of which are among the most “Anglo white” states, have aged due to lack of reproduction by whites in the general population nationally. This is connected to the reality the country at large is becoming less Anglo and white as a whole, with the reproduction rate of minorities much higher, along with the immigration of people of Hispanic and Latino heritage seeing a dramatic increase.

America is becoming more diverse every year, and by 2040-2050, the Anglo white population will be less than a majority.

All this affects the Republican Party in a detrimental way, and if they continue their present policy stands, they will be “dinosaurs” in thirty years, as the Democrats will have the edge in most states, although maybe not in these states that are less diverse!

The Census Figures And The Republican Party: Not What It Seems!

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When the census figures came out a week ago, Republicans were rejoicing as the Sunbelt gained seats in the House of Representatives and in the Electoral College vote for President, but the true tale is that the growth of population does NOT favor the GOP long term, particularly if the Republicans do not adjust to the reality of immigration.

It is true that Texas and Florida gained four and two seats in the House of Representatives, along with one seat for Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South Carolina, Utah and Washington State.

But much of the growth in population was Hispanic or Latino, and with the GOP promoting a hard line on immigration, and preventing passage of the DREAM Act for immigrant children, there is a likelihood that Hispanics will NOT vote Republican in these states, and as the voting population grows in these areas, the Democrats have a very good chance of gaining power in many of the Sunbelt states over the next decade.

Additionally, the demographics shows the suburbs of major cities, which used to be reliably Republican, no longer are. The astounding statistic is that John McCain, who had more of an open mind on immigration when he ran for the Presidency in 2008, managed to lose all of the suburban counties surrounding New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit and Boston, as well as the majority of suburban counties surrounding St. Louis and Cleveland. Additionally, except for Orange Country, McCain lost all suburban counties in southern California, and won Orange County by the smallest margin of any Republican in modern times!

Women have been historically Democratic, and independents have moved in that direction, except in 2010, which is likely a blip on the map, not a trend. And even rich people and counties are more than ever moving toward the Democrats, and contributing more to the Democrats.

Not all rich people vote their pocketbook, but also vote on social issues, and the reality is that the number of “have nots” will always outnumber the “haves”, so for the GOP to work against the interests of the struggling middle class, as well as the poor, is counter productive in the long run.

So while the GOP might control redistricting in many significant states and have Governors of their party in control, trying to project a long term Republican advantage electorally is far from guaranteed!

The Census And Reapportionment: Will The Republicans Self Destruct Their Theoretical Advantage By Their Anti Immigration Stand?

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The census figures for 2010 that came out two days ago indicate, theoretically, that the Republican Party should benefit, as most of the states that gained House seats are considered “red states”.

Specifically, Texas gained four seats, Florida two seats, Georgia one seat, South Carolina one seat, Arizona one seat and Utah one seat, along with Nevada gaining one seat and Washington State also gaining one seat.

Notice that these states have very high immigration rates, especially Hispanic–particularly Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada, and the facts show that the vast majority of new population in these states is due to immigration growth, whether legal or illegal.

So while the GOP can be expected to gain seats in the House of Representatives, as well as the state legislatures for the short term, it is also reality that if they continue to alienate Latino voters who are legal with their anti immigration stand, the bulk of the new population that can vote will be more likely to vote Democratic, which is the normal tradition anyway for Latinos, except for Cubans in Florida.

So even with short term gains by the Republicans, they could indeed “shoot themselves in the foot” politically long term, and rue the day they decided to take a hard nosed stand against immigration, both legal and illegal, particularly in dealing with the children of illegals, who should not be blamed for what their parents did, and therefore deny them the right to become citizens via military service or college education, leaving them in limbo in the only country they remember!

The apparent refusal of the Republicans to consider the DREAM Act will likely reverberate, and benefit the Democrats, and a party that only appeals to whites is doomed in the long run, as the population of the country will be majority non white by 2040 and after!

So this will be a growing factor in American politics as the years of this new decade go by!