“Battleground States”

“Battleground” States Should Be Expanded By Democrats!

With an expected very close race for the Presidency between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and with three independent or third party challengers being an additional threat to take away votes from the major party candidates, it is urgent that the list of “battleground” states be expanded by Democrats!

The usual belief is that the following states are the “battlegrounds”:

Pennsylvania (19)
Michigan (15)
Wisconsin (10)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Nevada (6)

Total 77 Electoral Votes

But in addition, the following states need to be considered potentials for extra attention financially and through campaign appearances by Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and numerous Democratic supporters in public office:

New Hampshire (4)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (16)
Florida (30)
Minnesota (10)
New Mexico (5)

Total 78 Electoral Votes

Additionally, the Second District of Maine which has gone Republican in the past (2016 and 2020) should be focused on, as well as retaining the Second District of Nebraska, which has gone Democratic two times in the past (2008 and 2020), with both states allowing divided electoral votes for President.

So a total of 12 states and one Congressional District in Nebraska and Maine should be focused on to insure a Democratic victory in November!

So out of 538 Electoral Votes total, 157 are in play!

If Trump Is Convicted, Estimate That Seven Percent Of His Supporters Would Abandon Him, Enough To Elect Joe Biden!

As the primary season begins, indications are that IF Donald Trump is convicted on any of the 91 counts against him over four trials, that it would insure that Trump would be unable to win the Presidency.

An estimate is that at least SEVEN percent of Trump supporters now would abandon him if he was convicted, and facing prison time.

That seven percent may sound as not much, but it is believed it would be the margin of victory for President Joe Biden in key battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all states that Biden won in 2020, before the criminal actions of Donald Trump!

One must recall that Donald Trump has never won the popular vote, and could ill afford to lose seven percent of his support upon a conviction, which seems certain on at least some of the counts against him, as the evidence in the four cases coming up in future months is very strong!

And the belief is that third party or independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, and even a No Labels candidate for the White House would, when push came to shove, do very poorly, reminding us of the Presidential Election of 1948, when two known political leaders, Strom Thurmond and Henry A. Wallace, both expected to undermine Harry Truman against Republican Thomas E. Dewey, both flopped dramatically!

Barack Obama And Joe Biden Reach Their Rhetorical Best, As Presidential Campaign Winds Down

Former President Barack Obama has kept his rhetoric down for much of the four years of his successor, but now, with only a week to go to the Presidential Election of 2020, he has utilized his great rhetorical gifts with a blistering, incisive, and at times, ridiculing, attack on Donald Trump, well deserved.

It is a pleasure to see Obama come out in full support and defense of his Vice President, Joe Biden, in such a dramatic and brilliant manner. Obama mocked Trump for saying that the leaders of Russia, China, and North Korea wanted him to win, and Trump’s complaint about Sixty Minutes correspondent Lesley Stahl, stating that if Trump cannot handle Sixty Minutes, how can he handle real crises such as the COVID 19 Pandemic, which Trump refuses to take responsibility for, and now has said cannot be dealt with, other than by a future vaccine.

At the same time, Joe Biden is fired up, and is at his best rhetorically, as well, as he campaigns vigorously in the battleground states. And his visit to Warm Springs, Georgia, the vacation home of Franklin D. Roosevelt, reminds us of a time nine decades ago when we faced a situation thought to be the greatest since the Civil War, but now surpassed by the challenge of not just a Second Great Depression, but also the worst health crisis since the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-1920.

Donald Trump continues to sink in the polls, and soon, the American people will make a clear cut decision to remove this tyrant from office and hold him accountable for his multiple crimes!

“The Progressive Professor”: Accurate Projections On Presidential Electoral Vote!

This author is proud to announce that he was 100 percent accurate in his projection on the Electoral College battle for the Presidency!

The prediction was that Barack Obama would win 332 electoral votes to 206 for Mitt Romney, with Obama winning eight of the nine “swing” or “battleground” states, all but North Carolina, and that was, precisely, what happened! Florida was the last state, finally, to finish its vote count and confirm that the Sunshine State was won by Obama.

Also, the Senate prediction was for 54 Democrats and Independents, and the final total is, instead, one more–a total of 55.

And the prediction for the House of Representatives was for a 15 seat gain for the Democrats, but it seems to be only seven for sure, and possibly up to eleven seats, ultimately!

Let’s just say that this author is quite happy in the results, and proud of his predictions being so much on target!

512 Paths To White House For Barack Obama; 76 Paths To White House For Mitt Romney

The New York Times and Nate Silver today list 512 Paths to the White House for Barack Obama, and 76 Paths to the White House for Mitt Romney in graph form, using different combinations of “swing” or “battleground” states to demonstrate the various paths.

Leave it to Nate SIlver, the most brilliant political statistician in America, who continues to say that Obama has an 85 percent chance of winning a second term, while Romney has a 15 percent chance of winning the White House.

Ultimately, in about 36-48 hours, we should know whether Nate Silver remains the “genius”, or is indeed a “paper tiger”!

Bet on Nate Silver would be this author’s advice!

Final Projection On Presidential Race: Obama-Biden 332 Electoral Votes, Romney-Ryan 206 Electoral Votes

This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.

Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.

The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!

So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.

Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.

It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.

Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.

Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.

This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.

Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!

Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!

Growing Possibility Of Libertarian Gary Johnson Having Impact On Presidential Election Of 2012

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s Presidential candidate, is showing some strength in polls that indicates he could be the “spoiler” in the 2012 Presidential Election, similar to what Ralph Nader was in the Presidential Election of 2000.

The effect, if Johnson gained a few percent of the vote in “battleground” or “swing” states, would be most likely to hurt Mitt Romney, the Republican Presidential nominee, rather than Democrat Barack Obama, since it seems more likely that libertarian support would come from elements in the GOP.

So the thought is that Johnson could affect the vote in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada, and help, indirectly, President Obama to win those states, although right now, Obama has the edge in Virginia, Florida, and Nevada, and is slightly ahead in Colorado, while behind in North Carolina.

If Johnson can win 3-5 percent of the vote, he could go down in history as notable enough to be recorded as having affected the election, just as Ralph Nader in 2000.

The Romney-Ryan Ticket As Seen By African Americans, Hispanics-Latinos And Women: Worst Since Polling Began!

The Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan Presidential ticket is in deep trouble, as polls demonstrate the unbelievable gap that they face gaining support among African Americans, Hispanics-Latinos, and women.

In one poll, Barack Obama leads Romney 94-0 among African Americans! Did you see that, ZERO for Romney, a stunning figure!

In one poll, Barack Obama leads Romney 63-28 among Hispanics-Latinos, a 35 point gap!

And among women, Barack Obama, in a recent poll, leads 54-39 percent, a 15 point gap!!

With absolutely ZERO support among African Americans, 35 points behind among Hispanics-Latinos, and 15 points behind among women, the Romney-Ryan ticket is on the road to total disaster, as they are also behind among labor voters, Jews, young people, moderates, Independents, and also behind Obama in all “swing” or battleground states except North Carolina, and almost even in Colorado.

Although they will win more states in the “heartland”, and therefore more electoral votes than Barry Goldwater did in 1964, they are on the way to a worst defeat than any GOP loser—Gerald Ford, George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole or John McCain–since a half century ago!

Medicare Will Decide The Election: IF Obama Wins Florida AND New Hampshire Of “Battleground” States, He Wins The Presidency!

Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet The Press just demonstrated how close Barack Obama is to a victory for the White House.

Showing an electoral vote map with 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp and 191 in Mitt Romney’s camp, Todd demonstrates that there are NINE true “battleground” or “swing” states, and if Obama wins Florida and New Hampshire, he has the second term he wants in the White House! And the issue of Medicare, brought to central focus by Paul Ryan and his budget plans on that program, will be the center of the victory of Obama for the Presidency!

Even if Romney wins the other seven contestable states—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada—he would lose the Electoral College 270-268, due to Florida’s 29 electoral votes and New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes!

But, to assume that Obama would really lose all seven of those states is also delusional, as it is certain that he will win some, and probably, most of them!

This author has been saying this for a long time, and has found some readers of this blog, conservative and Republican friends and associates, and people on Fox News Channel and talk radio, act as if only the public opinion polls, which often show a close race in many states and nationally, should be paid attention to, but that is NOT the case!

The election is decided by the Electoral College, NOT the popular vote nationally,and do not forget that George W. Bush LOST the popular vote in 2000, but was declared the winner of the Electoral College! The same happened to Benjamin Harrison, Rutherford Hayes, and John Quincy Adams in the past!

But to conclude that, somehow, Barack Obama will lose the national popular vote, with the Republican alienation of Hispanics-Latinos, African Americans, women, young voters, the middle class, senior citizens, gays and lesbians, the poor, labor, educators, consumer advocates, environmentalists, and secular voters—in each case, the majority, not all of any group, of course—indicates that those believing what they do are indeed delusional, and cannot be helped by ordinary medical intervention!

The Battle For The Jewish Vote In The Presidential Election Of 2012: The Role Of The Republican Jewish Coalition

The Jewish vote may be a small percentage of all votes cast in national elections, but it is well known that the Jewish community votes in higher percentages than any other group in American society, and the concentration of the Jewish population in certain states can have a great impact on the electoral college, as for example, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, all swing or battleground states.

So the battle for the Jewish vote is intense, with the Republican Jewish Coalition trying to increase the percentage of the Jewish population willing to vote Republican, which was unsuccessful in 2008, when 78 percent of the Jewish vote went to Barack Obama.

Latest indications are that 64 percent of the Jewish vote presently is in the Obama camp, down 14 points, but still two thirds of all Jews. So the Republican Jewish Coalition is hard at work trying to convince even more Jews of the following ideas:

1, Obama is not sufficiently pro Israel, and cannot be trusted to support Israel, due to the well known tension that exists at times between the Obama Administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

2. Obama refuses to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, because of concerns about the Middle East balance.

3. Obama has not visited Israel as President in his first term, although he did as a candidate in 2008.

The reality is that the Republican Jewish Coalition has distorted reality dramatically, so how can one answer these three accusations?

1. Obama has backed Israel in the United Nations, has supported lots of extra aid and military support to Israel, has spoken up in defense of Israel in every way possible. And Israeli Defense Minister and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and President Shimon Peres have issued lavish praise on Obama as a great friend of Israel, as good as any other American President from Harry Truman through George W. Bush, and both Israeli leaders went out of their way to issue these statements of support.

2. It is true that no move has been made to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, but NO President from Lyndon B. Johnson through George W. Bush has been willing to do so, because of sensitivity about peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and this includes Republican Presidents Richard Nixon,. Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, a total of FIVE Republican Presidents, as compared to FOUR Democratic Presidents, including Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Obama!

3. It is true that Obama has not visited Israel in his first term, but NO President, Democratic nor Republican, has done so in their first term, and of course, Ford, Carter, and Bush I only served one term or less as President.

So the accusations of the Republican Jewish coalition are distorted, untrue, purely propaganda, and it will not succeed in bringing larger than about a third of the Jewish vote to Mitt Romney!