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One Year To Presidential Election Of 2024, And Joe Biden Looks In Bad Shape!

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With one year to the Presidential Election Of 2024, President Joe Biden looks in bad shape, based on a New York Times-Siena College poll.

According to the poll, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in five of six swing state—4 points in Pennsylvania; 5 points in Michigan and Arizona; 6 points in Georgia; 10 points in Nevada; and with Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 2 points.

These statistics are stunning and worrisome, but one must realize that the history of polling shows one year out is no judgment of what will occur on Election Day.

One year ahead, there were no predictions that Harry Truman would win a full term in 1948; or that John F. Kennedy would win in 1960; or Richard Nixon would win in 1968; or Jimmy Carter (an unknown) would win in 1976; or Ronald Reagan would win in 1980; or Bill Clinton would win in 1992; or George W. Bush would win in 2000; or that Barack Obama would win in 2008; or that Donald Trump would win in 2016.

Also, one must realize that never has a President lost reelection to an opponent he had first defeated since Benjamin Harrison lost reelection to Grover Cleveland in 1892.

And with Donald Trump likely to be convicted on some of the 91 charges over four indictments in the next year, to believe that he will be able to defeat the man who defeated him, for the first time in 132 years, is to be living in an era of delusion.

Assuming that the economy will continue to do better, and with international crises a major factor, the President in office is, historically, highly likely to win reelection, particularly against someone who represents chaos, corruption, and incompetence, and as a threat to the American democratic system and to international stability!

But it is also clear that the message and the efforts to reelect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and insure a Democratic controlled House of Representatives and Senate must move full scale ahead, as there is no time for any sense of relaxation about the future of the nation and the world at large!

Seven States 2020 Presidential Election Results And Trump Challenge Now Under Further Investigation!

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Donald Trump is facing further investigation and likely indictments, and the federal prosecutor Jack Smith has now had all election supervisors testify in the 7 states that the Trump campaign made the center of their challenges to the Presidential Election of 2020!

These seven states are:

Arizona
Nevada
New Mexico
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Georgia

All of these states are certain to be the center of attention in the upcoming Presidential Election of 2024.

Only Nevada and New Mexico went to the Democrats in both elections, while the other five went from supporting Donald Trump and the Republican Party in 2016 to support of Joe Biden in 2020.

So investigation of the pressures brought upon these seven states, and particularly the five which switched from 2016 to 2020, is crucial in the prosecution of Trump, and the center of attention for 2024!

Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia (WANG)–The States Likely To Decide The Presidential Election Of 2024!

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Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center For Politics has come out with an estimate of what is likely to occur in the Presidential Election of 2024.

Sabato projects that the Democrats are ahead in states that add up to 260 electoral votes, ten short of the number needed to win the Presidency.

The Republicans are said to be ahead in states that add up to 235 electoral votes.

Democratic leaning states that are not solid include Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

Republican leaning states that are not solid include Texas, Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska.

So according to the Sabato estimate, there are only FOUR states that are truly “Toss-Ups”—Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia or the “WANG’ states, with a total of 43 electoral votes combined.

If everything as estimated occurred, Georgia with 16 electoral votes would be enough for the Democrats to win, while Arizona with 11 electoral votes, or Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes separately would also be enough for the Democrats to win, and with Nevada only having 6 electoral votes, so not enough to win.

Of course, this does not include the possibility of the two states which allow splitting of electoral votes–Maine and Nebraska–having a district vote for the opposition in that state’s popular vote count.

In 2008, Nebraska went for John McCain but gave one electoral vote to Barack Obama in the Second Congressional District; and in 2016, Maine went for Hillary Clinton, but gave one electoral vote to Donald Trump in the Second Congressional District.

Factors Favoring Democrats In 2024 Presidential Election

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The Democratic Party has several advantages going into the Presidential Election campaign of 2024.

Among them are:

Women in large percentages are outraged by the Supreme Court ending legal abortion protections on the federal level, and the actions by Republican state legislatures to prevent abortion rights further should favor Democrats in 2024, state and national levels.

African Americans are likely to continue to support Democrats with the new attack on “Diversity, Equity and Inclusion”, including the words and actions of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but also the broad attack on civil rights by Republicans at all levels.

Young people, particularly those of Generation Z, born from 1997 onward, are strongly moving toward the Democrats.

College educated people are becoming more strongly Democratic across the nation.

Gays, lesbians, and transgender Americans clearly see the Republican attack on their basic civil rights as a dire threat.

Suburban voters have become more Democratic in recent elections, and are likely to continue in that vein.

Religion has declined rapidly, which also helps promote Democrats.

Supreme Court decisions have been highly unpopular, and helped to shift many voters toward Democrats.

The continuing danger of Donald Trump has motivated many voters to turn to the Democrats.

Joe Biden’s two and a half year record, arguably the best in domestic affairs since Lyndon B. Johnson, boosts his candidacy, including the economy which has been better under Biden than any earlier President at this point, and with the one problem, inflation, rapidly declining, but with unemployment at a more than 50 year low.

The biggest problem is the uncertainty of the Hispanic-Latino vote, particularly among Cuban Americans, and those from Nicaragua, and Venezuela heritage, but even among Mexican Americans who have become more skeptical about Democrats.

Also, elderly Americans are less Democratic than they have traditionally been, and the Trump support is about one third of the electorate.

The less educated whites are declining rapidly, but are still strong supporters of Republicans, because of racist tendencies.

So the election will be highly contestable, and some experts say the election will come down to four states—Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Wisconsin!

The Ultimate Primary Battle: Trump Vs DeSantis, Florida Presidential Primary, Tuesday March 19, 2024!

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The nation is one year away from the ultimate primary battle–the struggle to win the Florida Republican Presidential Primary between two Floridians: former President Donald Trump and Florida second term Governor Ron DeSantis.

While the possibility exists that Trump, if indicted, might be forced out of the race, and that DeSantis might flop in earlier primaries and caucuses before Tuesday March 19, 2024, at this point, it seems highly likely that the battle between the two Floridians will occur, and may decide who is the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024!

And a third candidate, one of a large group, could surprise, and emerge and be the frontrunner in the race.

With both Trump and DeSantis being unwilling to back Ukraine against Russia, a Republican who backs the importance of sustaining Ukraine and the NATO alliance, could suddenly emerge.

It is important to keep in mind that NEVER at this point of a Presidential campaign, has anyone who went to become President, been seen as the likely winner in the past century, so suprises could occur!

March 19, 2024 will be a very big day, as Arizona, Illinois, Ohio and Virginia will also be voting in primaries!

The Ten Greatest Political Villains Of 2022! And An Addendum!

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Yesterday, I published a post on the ten greatest Political Heroes of 2022.

So now, it is time to indicate who I believe are the ten greatest Political Villains of 2022!

In no special order, I would list the following:

Republican House Minority Leader, possibly Speaker of the House (hopefully not), Kevin McCarthy of California, who time again and again showed he had no spine, being a supplicant to Donald Trump, and demonstrating no principle or ethics in his crazed desire to be Speaker, two heartbeats away from the Presidency. The thought of him being that close in the line of succession is horrifying, not that there are very good alternatives!

Election Denier, and symbol with clenched fist, Republican Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri, who promoted sedition and treason! He faces reelection in 2024 and should be soundly defeated!

Election Denier and most obnoxious Senator (with other competitors), Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who this author and blogger thought in 2016 was the most dangerous Republican running for President, even more than Donald Trump! He faces reelection in 2024 and should be soundly defeated!

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a man who once had some intelligence, but after Arizona Senator John McCain died, has become a total Donald Trump sycophant!

Republican Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, a very unstable and unpricipled excuse for a human being, who, somehow, was able to defeat one of the best US Senators of modern times, Russ Feingold, in 2010 and 2016, and then a very talented Lieutenant Governor, African American Mandela Barnes in 2022. Johnson is one of the worst figures in Senate history!

Republican Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio, an obnoxious and unprincipled man who, sadly, is likely to become House Judiciary Committee Chairman in the 118th Congress in 2023!

Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott, who won his third term as Governor in 2022, despite his horrendous policies and lack of compassion, and is likely to pursue a Presidential candidacy for 2024!

Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, who won a vast reelection victory in 2022, and is seen as the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024, despite his intolerant and authoritarian bent, and his high level of arrogance and cockiness, on a multitude of issues. These include the COVID 19 Pandemic; Gay and Transgender Rights; Racial and Religious Minorities; interference in the teaching of History and Literature, and Manipulating School Boards and Libraries; and extreme Gerrymandering of Congressional Districts, which took away two African American seats, and gave the Republicans the control of the House of Representatives in the 118th Congress!

Arizona Republican Gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who used the same tactic as Donald Trump, promoting the “Big Lie” about her defeat in the recent elections in her state. She has just been repudiated in court in her attempt to reverse a clearcut victory by her opponent, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. Good riddance to the most obnoxious woman imaginable!

Finally, on this list, former President Donald Trump, the most dangerous and worst US President in American history, twice impeached, and a close ally of totalitarian dictators around the world, willing to overthrow the US Constitution, rule of law, and American democracy. He needs to be prevented from running again for President, and indictment and conviction on the four charges brought against him by the January 6 House Committee is essential, to prevent any future tyrant from taking the kind of actions that this most evil man took! He harmed so many Americans during his term, as well as having the responsibility for the deaths, destruction and violence, in the worst attack on the US Capitol since the War of 1812!

And now an Addendum:

The Supreme Court has become a disgraceful, power hungry, extremist right wing organization!

Chief Justice John Roberts has lost his desired reputation as the leader of his Court, and in particular, Clarence Thomas (appointed by George H. W. Bush) and Samuel Alito (appointed by George W. Bush) have been totally out of control, and both will go down as two of the very worst Supreme Court Justices in American history! The names and reputations of both Bush Presidencies are permanently besmirched as a result!

Arizona And Georgia Key States Now, NOT Florida And Texas!

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As a result of the Midterm Elections of 2022, after the Presidential Election of 2020, it is clear that Arizona and Georgia are the key states for the Democrats, although they do not make up for the Republican dominance of Florida and Texas!

But with Pennsylvania and Michigan also becoming more likely Democratic based on recent elections, and adding the Northeast and Pacific Coast, the Midwest states of Illinois and Minnesota, and a few Mountain states, such as Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, the prognosis for the Democrats in 2024 and beyond, is looking good, in regards to the Electoral College!

Liz Cheney Vows To Do What Has To Be Done To Keep Donald Trump Out Of White House!

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Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming was interviewed at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Texas, on Sunday.

Vice Chair of the January 6 House Committee investigating the US Capitol Insurrection, but defeated for renomination in her home state, Cheney has vowed that she will do what has to be done to keep Donald Trump out of the White House in the Presidential Election of 2024.

She has hinted at running for President, to stop Trump, and willing to support Democrats, even though she does not believe in many of their ideas, but sees Trump as a “clear and present danger” to American democracy.

She plans to campaign for Democrats in states where Republicans are election deniers, including for Katie Hobbs in Arizona and against Kari Lake, one of the wackiest Republicans running for Governor in the midterm elections. Also, she will campaign against Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, running against Democrat Josh Shapiro for Governor.

And Cheney has said that if Donald Trump is nominated for President in 2024, she will no longer be a Republican!

Republican Party A Threat With “Election Deniers” And “Election Doubters” In 2022 Midterm Elections!

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With the Midterm Elections of 2022 on the horizon, the Republican Party represents a threat, due to such a large percentage of office seekers being “Election Deniers” or “Election Doubters”. These can be called the “MAGA” Candidates!

In the US Senate, we have seven Senators who refused to back the Electoral College vote on January 6, 2021, even after the Insurrection took place on that day at the US Capitol. They are not facing reelection this year, but three Senate candidates are “Election Deniers”, and seen as likely to win Senate seats, so making 10 Senators in this category.

In the House of Representatives, there are 118 seated “Election Deniers” and 8 “Election Doubters” in the chamber, running for reelection, and likely to keep their seats in the lower chamber.

In the Governorships, there are 2 “Election Deniers” and 3 “Election Doubters” seen as likely to either keep their seats or win their seats, and this does not include the possibility of Arizona and Pennsylvania being won as well.

Out of 541 Republicans running for office, 199 are “Election Deniers”, and 62 have raised questions about the 2020 election, with 118 candidates refusing to comment at all, with only 74 fully accepting the 2020 election results, and 88 accepting but with some reservations.

Overall, 60 percent of Americans will have an “Election Denier” on their ballots in November!

Nationally, 27 states have “Election Deniers” running, including much of the Midwest, Mountain States, New England, and the South, but also including New York and Pennsylvania!

And Arizona is perceived as the most “rebellious” state of all, regarding the House membership, the Senate race, and also the Governorship!

These statistics come from a report from the website “Five Thirty Eight”, and I thank them for this information!

This is alarming, almost like the Confederate States of America taking over the Governorships and US Congress after the Civil War!

Potential For Democrats To Gain Multiple Senate Seats In Midterm Elections Of 2022

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The potential now exists for the Democrats to gain multiple Senate seats in the Midterm Elections of 2022!

With six Republicans Senators retiring, at least three of those seats could go to the Democrats, along with three Republican Senators running for reelection having troubles in their reelection campaigns.

Pennsylvania with John Fetterman; Ohio with Tim Ryan; and North Carolina with Cheri Beasley, all have a good shot to win what have been Republican seats.

Additionally, Florida with Val Demings and Wisconsin with Mandela Barnes could see the defeat of Marco Rubio and Ron Johnson. And the longest serving Republican Senator, Chuck Grassley, running at age 89 for another six year term, also has a tough race from retired Admiral Michael Franken that should not be ignored.

Four Democratic Senators have major challenges to keep their seats—Mark Kelly in Arizona; Raphael Warnock in Georgia; Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada; and Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire.

Also, Mike Lee in Utah has a strong independent, Evan McMullin, trying to defeat this loyal Trumpite, and Democrats are backing him.

Rand Paul in Kentucky has a strong African American opponent in Democrat Charles Booker, and the defeat of Paul would be welcome, but unexpected.

In Missouri, Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine will try to stop Republican Eric Schmitt, another tough race without an incumbent, but Schmitt favored to win.

The possibility of up to a 4-5 seat gain for Democrats is in the cards, if the present trend in polls continues!