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“The October Surprise” Is With Us! Final Projection On Electoral Vote Result On November 5!

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“The October Surprise”, the argument that an event in October has influenced Presidential elections, has occurred again, and this time, it seems clear that it will destroy the Donald Trump campaign!

Not only the horrendous, despicable “joke” by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe about Puerto Ricans at the Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday, but many of the other speakers who ranted and raved against African Americans and Jews, and promoted a white supremacy America with their hatred, all created what will bring down Donald Trump a week from today!

Clearly, the Republican Party is advocating a white Christian supremacist party and future, and Americans who do not fit into that mold can clearly see the threats and the danger ahead.

So watch as this disaster, that did not have to be, but demonstrates what Donald Trump is all about, will lead to his defeat, and likely by a bigger margin than one might think!

This blogger is now going out on a limb that Kamala Harris will carry the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada, and the second district of Nebraska, and will have 309 electoral votes to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. The only “swing state” Trump will win is Arizona!

And Harris will have a bigger popular vote margin than Joe Biden’s 7 million vote lead in 2020!

Commentary by readers is welcome on this projection, and we shall see how accurate I am!

Why Kamala Harris Is Likely On The Road To Victory

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Although the polls are very close in the Presidential Election race of 2024, all signs are good that Kamala Harris is likely on the road to occupying the Oval Office as the 47th President of the United States after the November 5 election date.

Harris is ahead in most polls in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, which if true, would give her a 287-251 Electoral College victory, also including the Second District in Nebraska.

There is no doubt that Harris will easily win the popular vote, and possibly by more than the 7 plus million vote victory of Joe Biden in 2020.

Additionally, Harris is ahead in the following categories:

Urban voters
Suburban voters
College Educated Voters
Women Voters
African American Voters
Latino Voters
Jewish Voters
Asian American Voters
Voters 18-29 Years of Age
Voters Over Age 50
Labor Union Voters
Gay And Lesbian Voters

Of course, being ahead does not mean that the percentages of each voter category are what they have been in the past, or that one would think they should be, so there is plenty of work ahead in the next 25 days to convince voters in all of the above categories to support Kamala Harris.

Donald Trump will have the edge with:

Rural Voters
Non College Educated Voters
White Male Voters
Wealthy Voters
30-50 Years of Age Voters
Religious Voters

It is clear that there are still those Americans who have not made up their minds, so non stop campaigning is essential, as this election is crucial to the survival of American democracy, the rule of law, and maintaining the US Constitution!

Abortion Crucial Issue In Determining Future Of American Politics

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Ever since Roe V Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court in the Dobbs V Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision in June 2022, it has become the crucial issue to millions of American women and the men who support their right to reproductive freedom.

So far, since then, seven states have protected Abortion Rights, including Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Michigan, California and Vermont in 2022, and Ohio in 2023.

Ten states have abortion ballot measures that will be facing voters in November 2024–including Arizona, Maryland, Missouri, Montana (expansion beyond 2022 vote), Nebraska, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota, all of whom have a 50 percent threshold; and Colorado with a 55 percent threshold, and Florida with a 60 percent threshold.

The Florida ballot question will be the most difficult to accomplish, but both that state and Arizona, along with Maryland and Nevada, will be tied to Senate races that will be crucial for Democrats, who, hopefully, will keep control of the US Senate.

Eight To Eleven States To Vote On Abortion Rights In November Election

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Donald Trump has made the claim that abortion rights will not be a major issue in the Presidential Election of 2024.

The reality is otherwise, as already, since the Dobbs V. Women’s Health Organization Supreme Court decision of June 2022 reversed Roe V Wade, six states have insured abortion rights–California, Michigan, Ohio, Vermont, Kentucky, and Kansas.

And now, eight states will have the issue of abortion rights on the ballot in November, including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota.

Additionally three other states are in process of trying to put it on the ballot—Arkansas, Montana and Nebraska.

So it could be that 11 states will join the 6 earlier that have moved to allow abortion rights, negating the Dobbs decision.

The first 6 states were evenly divided politically, with California, Michigan, and Vermont being Democratic, and Ohio, Kentucky, and Kansas being Republican states.

The eight states that have definite votes in November are 5 Democratic leaning states—Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Nevada, and New York—and 3 leaning Republican—Florida, Missouri, and South Dakota.

And the other three states in process all tend to be Republican—Arkansas, Montana, and Nebraska.

So if one adds up these 17 states, there are 8 Democratic leaning states and 9 Republican leaning states.

This is all a very interesting situation in the battle for reproductive rights for women!

Psychiatric And Cognitive Concerns About Donald Trump Grow, As Harris Makes Major Gains In Polls

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Psychiatric and cognitive concerns about Donald Trump are growing, as he is becoming more delusional by the day, lashing out even at his own contributors, and obsessing about size of crowds for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, claiming false AI (Artificial Intelligence) photos!

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has surged to a lead over Trump in polls for Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and signs that she is gaining in Arizona and Nevada, including massive crowds showing up, despite 100 degree weather.

Trump is having trouble conceiving of how Harris replacing Joe Biden, and taking on Tim Walz, is having such a surge for three weeks, and with the Democratic National Convention coming in one week, an event very likely to boost Harris and Walz ever further in public support.

Major amounts of funds and volunteers continue to skyrocket, and more white men than expected are shown to be willing to move toward support of the Democratic ticket, to add to that of minority support, women, and young people.

With 226 electoral votes seen as assuredly Democratic, IF Harris can win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, she would end up with exactly 270 electoral votes, the magic number to win the Presidency, even without Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, the other so called “battleground” states!

Three Senate Republican Targets Whose Defeats Would Be Blessings!

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The battle for control of the US Senate in 2025 is a very difficult struggle for Democrats, who have a one vote margin in the present Senate, but seem highly likely to lose that slight edge in the upcoming Senate elections.

Besides having to defend incumbents in Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, open seats in Maryland and Arizona will be difficult battles, and with West Virginia assured of a switch to Republicans with Joe Manchin’s retirement.

There are only three Republican targets that are possible switches to the Democrats, but all three will be very difficult to defeat.

In Florida, Rick Scott is opposed by Debbie Mucarsel-Powell; in Missouri, Josh Hawley is opposed by Lucas Kunce; and in Texas, Ted Cruz is opposed by Colin Allred.

All three Republican Senators are horrendous in their comments, votes, and basic personalities, the kind that are regularly demonstrating their lack of concern for their constituents, and motivated solely by ambition and desire to be controversial.

Nikki Haley Vote Percentage After Leaving Presidential Race A Danger Sign For Donald Trump!

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Nikki Haley dropped out of the Presidential campaign two months ago, having only won DC and Vermont, but gaining often one third of the primary vote in the states she lost to Donald Trump.

Since then, amazingly, she has racked up 13-25 percent of the vote in later Republican primaries despite having withdrawn from the race, and in some suburban counties in these states even higher at times.

She did this in crucial states, including Indiana, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.

And Donald Trump has made no moves to appeal to Haley or her supporters, while Joe Biden is making every effort to appeal to Haley supporters to “cross the aisle”.

This is an encouraging sign for Democrats.

“Battleground” States Should Be Expanded By Democrats!

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With an expected very close race for the Presidency between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and with three independent or third party challengers being an additional threat to take away votes from the major party candidates, it is urgent that the list of “battleground” states be expanded by Democrats!

The usual belief is that the following states are the “battlegrounds”:

Pennsylvania (19)
Michigan (15)
Wisconsin (10)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Nevada (6)

Total 77 Electoral Votes

But in addition, the following states need to be considered potentials for extra attention financially and through campaign appearances by Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and numerous Democratic supporters in public office:

New Hampshire (4)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (16)
Florida (30)
Minnesota (10)
New Mexico (5)

Total 78 Electoral Votes

Additionally, the Second District of Maine which has gone Republican in the past (2016 and 2020) should be focused on, as well as retaining the Second District of Nebraska, which has gone Democratic two times in the past (2008 and 2020), with both states allowing divided electoral votes for President.

So a total of 12 states and one Congressional District in Nebraska and Maine should be focused on to insure a Democratic victory in November!

So out of 538 Electoral Votes total, 157 are in play!

Super Tuesday Results In Vermont, Arizona And North Carolina Positives For Democrats In Upcoming National Elections In November!

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The Super Tuesday election results were predictable, with both Joe Biden and Donald Trump performing well.

But Trump has some major negatives moving forward, including:

Nikki Haley winning Vermont and DC, and taking about a third of all votes in a number of other state primaries, a sign of Republicans who are not likely to support Trump in November. Since Trump did not ever have a majority of popular votes in 2016 or 2020, he can ill afford to lose the Haley votes, but it will be hard for him to gain that, while facing 91 indictment counts!

The decision of Independent Kyrsten Sinema to give up reelection to the Senate in Arizona makes the Senate race a direct battle between MAGA Republican Kari Lake and Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego, with Lake being a flawed candidate who already lost the gubernatorial race in 2022 to Governor Katie Hobbs.

The nomination of MAGA Republican Mark Robinson to oppose state Attorney General Josh Stein in North Carolina for the Governorship is another burden for Republicans to bear, realizing that Stein won two races for Attorney General in 2016 and 2020 when Trump was on the ballot in the state in his two Presidential runs.

Both Arizona and North Carolina are crucial states in the Presidential Election of 2024, and Democrats have just gained an edge in both states!

Presidential Election Of 2024 Likely To Hinge On Six States!

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It is very clear that American politics has reached the stage where it can be quite certain that the Presidential Election of 2024 will hinge on six states, where both major party Presidential candidates will spend most of their time and effort on winning just those six states that are likely to be in play!

The Republican nominee, almost certainly Donald Trump, will have the clearcut edge in states with 235 electoral votes, and Democratic President Joe Biden will have the advantage in states with 226 electoral votes.

So 77 electoral votes in six states will decide who wins the White House!

Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada

The nation is so bitterly divided that now it all comes down to these six states, unless there turns out to be a suprise.

And in future elections, other states could be in play, depending on voting patterns of new and younger voters!

It used to be that more states were in play, but in the past generation, parties have tended to gain dominance in many states!