George W. Bush

One Year To Presidential Election Of 2024, And Joe Biden Looks In Bad Shape!

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With one year to the Presidential Election Of 2024, President Joe Biden looks in bad shape, based on a New York Times-Siena College poll.

According to the poll, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in five of six swing state—4 points in Pennsylvania; 5 points in Michigan and Arizona; 6 points in Georgia; 10 points in Nevada; and with Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 2 points.

These statistics are stunning and worrisome, but one must realize that the history of polling shows one year out is no judgment of what will occur on Election Day.

One year ahead, there were no predictions that Harry Truman would win a full term in 1948; or that John F. Kennedy would win in 1960; or Richard Nixon would win in 1968; or Jimmy Carter (an unknown) would win in 1976; or Ronald Reagan would win in 1980; or Bill Clinton would win in 1992; or George W. Bush would win in 2000; or that Barack Obama would win in 2008; or that Donald Trump would win in 2016.

Also, one must realize that never has a President lost reelection to an opponent he had first defeated since Benjamin Harrison lost reelection to Grover Cleveland in 1892.

And with Donald Trump likely to be convicted on some of the 91 charges over four indictments in the next year, to believe that he will be able to defeat the man who defeated him, for the first time in 132 years, is to be living in an era of delusion.

Assuming that the economy will continue to do better, and with international crises a major factor, the President in office is, historically, highly likely to win reelection, particularly against someone who represents chaos, corruption, and incompetence, and as a threat to the American democratic system and to international stability!

But it is also clear that the message and the efforts to reelect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and insure a Democratic controlled House of Representatives and Senate must move full scale ahead, as there is no time for any sense of relaxation about the future of the nation and the world at large!

Amazing Statistic On Job Growth: 96 Percent Since 1989 Under Democratic Presidents!

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As Labor Day was celebrated, an amazing statistic on job growth under Presidents since 1989 is revealed!

Under Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden, a massive total of 96 percent of all jobs were created (47.3 million)!

Under Republican Presidents George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump, only 4 percent of all job growth occurred (1.9 million)!

This statistic needs to be hammered home every day between now and 14 months from now, Election Day (November 5, 2024)!

The Longevity Of Presidents Analyzed

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There is a lot of debate and discussion about Joe Biden’s age.

One needs to examine the history of Presidents and longevity.

In the 20th and 21st centuries, the time of modern America, 40 percent of Presidents (8) have had a short life span, as witness:

Theodore Roosevelt 60
William Howard Taft 72
Woodrow Wilson 67
Warren G. Harding 57
Calvin Coolidge 60
Franklin D. Roosevelt 63
John F. Kennedy 46
Lyndon B. Johnson 64

Other Presidents, 60 percent, (12), have had very long life spans, including

Herbert Hoover 90
Harry Truman 88
Dwight D. Eisenhower 78
Richard Nixon 81
Gerald Ford 93
Jimmy Carter 99 on the coming October 1
Ronald Reagan 93
George H W Bush 94
Bill Clinton 77 and counting
George W. Bush 77 and counting
Donald Trump 77 and counting
Joe Biden 81 on the coming November 20

Then, in a classification by himself, is Barack Obama (62), and seemingly in great health and physical shape!

My conclusion: Presidents and people in general are living longer and healthier, and one cannot deduce from the problems of Senator Diane Feinstein and Senator Mitch McConnell that President Joe Biden will be unable to finish his time in office.

But if, sadly, that becomes an issue, there is absolutly nothing wrong, and a lot very positive, about the ability of Vice President Kamala Harris to take over the Presidency.

When one considers Vice Presidents who succeeded their Presidents during a term, three of them—-Theodore Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson excelled—-while the other six who succeeded were far from outstanding.

But we managed to survive all of the time, and Kamala Harris is 59 years old, the general age of most Presidents upon taking office, and perfectly capable of being Chief Executive if an emergency arises!

Vivek Ramaswamy Is Trump 2.0! Highly Dangerous Candidacy!

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Vivek Ramaswamy, the 38 year old biotech billionaire entrepreneur candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination, has become the big star of the first Republican Presidential debate, despite having zero qualifications for the Presidency.

He is a young, brash, cocky, arrogant Donald Trump 2.0, who is clearly vying to be Donald Trump’s Vice Presidential running mate, if Trump is, as seems likely, the Republican candidate for President for a third time, despite his four indictments and a total of 91 counts against him.

Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, and Chris Christie made him subject to their attacks, and rightfully so, as he has no background in foreign policy, and promotes an extremist right wing agenda that would be a disaster if he was to end up in the Oval Office in the future!

And his statement that Donald Trump was the greatest President of the 21st century, over Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and George W. Bush, is a clear sign of his lunatic nature, and the danger of his candidacy for the Trump cult, which lives in an alternate universe!

Presidential Concession Speeches An Endorsement Of American Democracy!

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The story of American democracy over two centuries and more has been graceful concession speeches by the losers of Presidential elections. Despite vehement and emotional feelings on both sides of an election, being a “good sport” and conceding in a proper manner is an American tradition!

The only time there was, in effect, no concession speeches was when South Carolina, and eventually ten other Southern states, eventually refused to accept that Abraham Lincoln had won the Presidency in 1860, and began the civil insurrection known to history as the American Civil War!

Other than that one time, losers of Presidential elections have always been gracious and patriotic in their acceptance of the victory of their rivals, until 2020 when Donald Trump refused to concede and provoked the US Capitol Insurrection of January 6, 2021!

Some elections have been very close, as in 1876, when Rutherford B. Hayes defeated Samuel Tilden, in an election which dragged on to final determination until just before Inauguration Day in 1877, with Tilden accepting his loss.

The same situation occurred in 1884, when the Republican Party lost the Presidency for the first time in a generation to Democrat Grover Cleveland by very small margins, but James G. Blaine accepted defeat graciously.

In 1916, we had the second closest Electoral Vote margin after 1876, until later in the year 2000, with loser Charles Evans Hughes being gracious in defeat to President Woodrow Wilson.

The upset election victory of President Harry Truman over New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 was accepted in a proper way by Dewey. And later, Truman had Dewey visit the White House!

Richard Nixon in 1960 had advisers suggest he challenge John F. Kennedy over the close Illinois vote, but Nixon, outgoing Vice President, refused to drag out the matter, and accepted defeat in a gracious manner.

President Gerald Ford was heartbroken in 1976, when he lost to Jimmy Carter, but was very gracious in concession, read by his wife Betty Ford, because the President had developed laryngitis. And the Fords and the Carters became fast friends in later years, a closer friendship than anyone since John Adams and Thomas Jefferson!

Michael Dukakis was way ahead of George H. W. Bush at one point of the 1988 Presidential campaign, but was very appropriate in his concession speech.

President George H.W. Bush was devastated by his loss to Bill Clinton in 1992, as was Bob Dole in 1996, but both were proper in their concessions.

Al Gore fought the good fight in 2000, contesting the result for 36 days, but then conceding, when the Supreme Court intervened, and as outgoing Vice President, rejected any further battle over the Electoral College vote count on January 6, 2001.

Senator John McCain was totally decent and proper in his gracious concession speech, congratulating the nation in 2008, on the election of the first African American President, Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney had the same decency when he lost to Obama in 2012, and Hillary Clinton conceded the morning after the 2016 election to Donald Trump, although totally stunned by the loss.

So there was no excuse, and still there is none today, for any candidate for the Presidency who loses the election to refuse to concede, and instead to cause chaos, disarray, and literal violence, as that provoked by Donald Trump against Joe Biden’s victory in 2020.

So the time has come for Donald Trump to pay the price for the bloodshed and violence he provoked, and to be convicted and sentenced to federal prison.

And his decision to continue to provoke violence and what he calls “retribution” should lead to his incarceration BEFORE trial, as an example to the American people what happens, when anyone, even a former President, chooses to promote undermining of American democracy and the rule of law!

Supreme Court Reputation At All Time Low!

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The Supreme Court of the United States once was the most highly honored government institution, with a reputation of having the highest ethics, and beyond politics!

However, the Roberts Court, in place now for 18 years since 2005, has lost all credibility, as it has struck out against basic constitutional rights relating to women, race, and sexuality, and has promoted a gun culture; advocated religion (Christianity) over civil rights; and worked to limit voting rights.

The two Bush appointees—Clarence Thomas (George H. W. Bush), and Samuel Alito (George W. Bush) have become the most horrendous, narrow minded Supreme Court Justices of the past century, more so than Antonin Scalia and William Rehnquist, in their negative influence on constitutional law.

Roberts himself, who is so concerned about the negative image of the Court, has been unwilling to promote the concept of ethics reform, despite the clearcut scandals of both Thomas and Alito, but also including himself and even some by other Court members.

So Roberts, the 17th Chief Justice in American history, will not have a great historical reputation in the future, and the Court’s misbehavior will lead to a move to change the future of the Court, including, possibly, future expansion of the Court; or term limits for future Justices; and mandated ethics reforms when and if the Democrats can have solid control of the legislative agenda in some future Congress, hopefully sooner rather than later!

Roberts, himself, has already served as Chief Justice longer than most of that select group of 17, and it would be a good situation if he, with 18 years; Alito with 17 years; and Thomas with 32 years (12th longest of all Supreme Court Justices) were to retire soon, but that is very unlikely to occur anytime soon!

Joe Biden’s Amazing Economic Record After 2.5 Years In Presidency!

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We are coming up on 2.5 years in the Presidency for Joe Biden next week, and when one looks back at these 2.5 years in reflection, it is clear that Joe Biden has had an amazing level of success, one of the best of any President for this period of time in office!

His NATO trip demonstrated that he is very much respected in the international community, and that he is a true master in foreign policy, more knowledgeable and experienced than any modern President except for maybe Richard Nixon, and on the margins, George H. W. Bush.

And Biden’s economic record is sterling, with the one issue, high inflation, now clearly tamed.

And when one looks at his Job Creation record, it is unmatched, as under his administration, we have seen 13.2 million jobs created from the low point of the COVID 19 Pandemic!

Just looking at the statistics on job creation, the closest to Biden is Bill Clinton, who presided over 11.6 million jobs in his first term, and 11.3 million jobs in his second term!

Next best was Ronald Reagan in his second term with 10.8 million jobs, followed by Barack Obama in his second term with 10.4 million jobs, and then by Jimmy Carter in his one term with 10.3 million jobs, a statistic that might surprise those who love to criticize Carter!

No one else comes close, and with Republican Presidents since Nixon much lower–with Nixon first term with 6.2 million jobs; Nixon-Ford in second term with 5.1 million jobs; Reagan first term with 5.3 million jobs; George H. W. Bush in his term with 2.6 million jobs; George W Bush in his first term only 0.1 million jobs and in his second term with 1.3 million jobs.

Obama in his first term, with the depths of the Great Recession that he inherited, had only 1.2 million jobs.

And get this, Trump, in his term, actually LOST 2.7 million jobs, the only President actually to LOSE jobs!

So as I have stated at other times on this blog over the years, Democratic Presidents do FAR BETTER on the economy than Republican Presidents!

And realize, there are still 18 months left of the Joe Biden term, so clearly, there will be millions more jobs likely created, pushing Biden way past all earlier Presidents since Nixon in a vast way!

Away For Two Weeks, And The World Changes, Not For The Better! :(

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Having just returned from my vacation with my older son after watching nine baseball games at eight baseball stadiums from Washington DC to Chicago, it is clear while I have been away that the nation and the world have changed, and not for the better.

Russia under Vladimir Putin is in turmoil after a challenge to the government by a militia group, creating more international instability. And demonstrations in France have gone large after the killing of an Algerian Arab French citizen by police, making clear that racism is alive and well in not just the United States but world wide!

And then, domestically, the Supreme Court has shown once again just how extreme they are, and presenting a constitutional crisis, as the Bush I and II appointees, along with the Trump appointees, have declared war on precedent and progress, trying to bring America back to the 18th century “originalism”, which many scholars make clear is totally preposterous!

The majority Court Justices have been shown to have massive financial and ideological conflicts of interest with no means for accountability, and with Chief Justice John Roberts losing all of whatever reasonable reputation he has had over the years, with his refusal to testify on ethics violations by himself and the other Republican Justices, particularly, but not only, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito.

Between the attack on abortion rights a year ago, and now the end of affirmative action; the denial of student college debt relief; and allowing religion to interfere with the basic human rights of gays and transgenders, and arguably, other groups that any person in any business or industry could decide to refuse to interact with in daily life, is clearly the most dangerous time in constitutional history since the Civil War!

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Gains Minnesota Support, Now At 205 Electoral Votes!

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The movement to change the Presidential Election process from the Electoral College system that has allowed five Presidential elections to be won by the national popular vote loser, has made more progress in the past few days, with Minnesota becoming the 16th state plus the District of Columbia to agree to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact!

Five Presidential Elections have seen the “vote of the people” denied with the popular vote loser becoming President as follows:

1824 Andrew Jackson loses to John Quincy Adams despite 38,000 vote lead
1876 Samuel Tilden loses to Rutherford B. Hayes despite 252,000 vote lead
1888 Grover Cleveland loses to Benjamin Harrison despite 90,000 vote lead
2000 Al Gore loses to George W. Bush despite 540,000 vote lead
2016 Hillary Clinton loses to Donald Trump despite 2.86 million vote lead

The total number of electoral votes needed to win the Presidency is 270, with the 16 states and DC adding up to a total of 205 electoral votes.

The problem is in a divided America all of the states and DC that have agreed to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact are “blue” states.

In order of their adoption by the state legislatures and signing by the governors are the following states: (starting in April 2007 until May 2023)

Maryland
New Jersey
Illinois
Hawaii
Washington
Massachusetts
District of Columbia
Vermont
California
Rhode Island
New York
Connecticut
Colorado
Delaware
New Mexico
Oregon
Minnesota

Two states–Maine and Nevada–passed the compact, but in Maine, a followup required vote failed and in Nevada the Republican governor vetoed the legislation. But in the past two weeks, Nevada passed the legislation again, and it seems almost ready to add its six electoral votes to the total, making it, when it happens, 211 electoral votes.

Six other states saw one of the houses of the state legislature pass the bill–Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Michigan (15), North Carolina (16), Oklahoma (7), and Virginia (13). If these six states were to pass such a bill in the future, it would mean 68 more electoral votes, which with the present 205, would add up to 273, three more than needed, and if Nevada joined the list, it would be 279!

But even if more states were to join this compact, it is likely that there would be a constitutional challenge if, in a future Presidential election, this compact came into reality, and it could cause a major division in the nation.

Desperate Need For Immigration Reform For Past Generation

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In 1986, Republican President Ronald Reagan signed an immigration reform plan into law, legitimizing millions of migrants who might have come in without the normal channels.

Reagan understood that the lifeblood of the nation is immigration, as America has always been a land welcoming people from other lands who have suffered from violence, poverty, discrimination, and simple desire for a better life.

Everyone of us in America is here because earlier generations of immigrants took the arduous and often dangerous trip from foreign lands.

And yet, now, and for the entire 21st century, the Republican Party, with some exceptions, have blocked immigration reform under Republican President George W. Bush, and Democratic Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Many forget, conveniently, that Republican Presidentic candidate Senator John McCain of Arizona promoted such reform in his 2008 Presidential campaign, and before and after that time frame until his passing in 2018.

But now, the ugly nativism of most Republicans is distressing, and failing to realize that promoting more immigration is a long range strategy to deal with the aging of the American population, and the dire need for more young people to promote economic growth into the future.