Hillary Clinton

Iowa Caucus History, And Caucuses Elsewhere In 2024

In the past, there were up to 15 states that held Presidential Caucuses, with them first evolving in the 1970s.

Today, in 2024, there are only a few states that hold caucuses, with the overwhelming majority having Presidential primaries.

The only states in 2024 with caucuses being held by both major political parties are:

Hawaii
Idaho
Iowa
North Dakota
Wyoming

Two other states have Republicans having caucuses, while Democrats have primaries

Those two states with this odd situation are

Missouri
Nevada

Notice none of these total seven states have large populations, with Missouri being the largest.

At the same time, the Iowa Caucuses have NOT been a good example of accuracy as to who would be the nominees or winners of the Presidency.

The only Presidents who won in Iowa and went on to the White House were:

Jimmy Carter 1976
George W. Bush 2000
Barack Obama 2008

Walter Mondale in 1984, Al Gore in 2000, John Kerry in 2004, and Hillary Clinton in 2016 won the Iowa Caucuses but lost the Presidency for Democrats, while for the Republicans, only Bob Dole in 1996 won in Iowa and then lost the Presidency.

Polls One Year Ahead Of National Elections Prove Nothing!

National polling a year or more ahead of a national election is pointless, as much too often, it proves to be totally out of line with reality.

Also, elections are not decided nationally, but state by state, so therefore, the hysteria over the close polls on the Presidency showing a tight race should not cause people to panic.

At this point in many past election cycles, we were told Barack Obama was in bad shape in 2011; that Hillary Clinton was the guaranteed nominee in 2007; that Rudy Giuliani was the favored Republican candidate in 2007; that Howard Dean was favored in 2003; and on and on and on!

A year and more is an eternity, and the Democrats and Joe Biden still would be the favorite moving forward!

The Midwest And Pennsylvania The Fulcrum Of The Presidential Election Of 2024

The heartland of the nation—the Midwest—is the fulcrum of the Presidential Election Of 2024 with its combination of electoral votes.

The states of Illinois (19), Ohio (17), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (10), are likely to decide who wins the Presidency and controls both houses of Congress. Add “next door” Pennsylvania (19) to the mix, and that is a certainty!

All of these states, except Ohio, went to Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020; and Trump won four of these states in 2016—all but Illinois and Minnesota, which went to Hillary Clinton.

The first Republican debate, sponsored by Fox News Channel, this coming Wednesday, will be in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, as will be the site of the Republican National Convention from July 15-18, 2024.

And the Democratic National Convention will be held in Chicago, Illinois from August 19-22, 2024!

So both parties know that the Midwest, plus Pennsylvania, is the most important target in election of the next President of the United States!

One must realize that it was the Upper Midwest where the Republican Party was born in 1854, so next year it is 170 years since the founding of a party now in crisis, due to Donald Trump’s corruption!

Presidential Concession Speeches An Endorsement Of American Democracy!

The story of American democracy over two centuries and more has been graceful concession speeches by the losers of Presidential elections. Despite vehement and emotional feelings on both sides of an election, being a “good sport” and conceding in a proper manner is an American tradition!

The only time there was, in effect, no concession speeches was when South Carolina, and eventually ten other Southern states, eventually refused to accept that Abraham Lincoln had won the Presidency in 1860, and began the civil insurrection known to history as the American Civil War!

Other than that one time, losers of Presidential elections have always been gracious and patriotic in their acceptance of the victory of their rivals, until 2020 when Donald Trump refused to concede and provoked the US Capitol Insurrection of January 6, 2021!

Some elections have been very close, as in 1876, when Rutherford B. Hayes defeated Samuel Tilden, in an election which dragged on to final determination until just before Inauguration Day in 1877, with Tilden accepting his loss.

The same situation occurred in 1884, when the Republican Party lost the Presidency for the first time in a generation to Democrat Grover Cleveland by very small margins, but James G. Blaine accepted defeat graciously.

In 1916, we had the second closest Electoral Vote margin after 1876, until later in the year 2000, with loser Charles Evans Hughes being gracious in defeat to President Woodrow Wilson.

The upset election victory of President Harry Truman over New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 was accepted in a proper way by Dewey. And later, Truman had Dewey visit the White House!

Richard Nixon in 1960 had advisers suggest he challenge John F. Kennedy over the close Illinois vote, but Nixon, outgoing Vice President, refused to drag out the matter, and accepted defeat in a gracious manner.

President Gerald Ford was heartbroken in 1976, when he lost to Jimmy Carter, but was very gracious in concession, read by his wife Betty Ford, because the President had developed laryngitis. And the Fords and the Carters became fast friends in later years, a closer friendship than anyone since John Adams and Thomas Jefferson!

Michael Dukakis was way ahead of George H. W. Bush at one point of the 1988 Presidential campaign, but was very appropriate in his concession speech.

President George H.W. Bush was devastated by his loss to Bill Clinton in 1992, as was Bob Dole in 1996, but both were proper in their concessions.

Al Gore fought the good fight in 2000, contesting the result for 36 days, but then conceding, when the Supreme Court intervened, and as outgoing Vice President, rejected any further battle over the Electoral College vote count on January 6, 2001.

Senator John McCain was totally decent and proper in his gracious concession speech, congratulating the nation in 2008, on the election of the first African American President, Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney had the same decency when he lost to Obama in 2012, and Hillary Clinton conceded the morning after the 2016 election to Donald Trump, although totally stunned by the loss.

So there was no excuse, and still there is none today, for any candidate for the Presidency who loses the election to refuse to concede, and instead to cause chaos, disarray, and literal violence, as that provoked by Donald Trump against Joe Biden’s victory in 2020.

So the time has come for Donald Trump to pay the price for the bloodshed and violence he provoked, and to be convicted and sentenced to federal prison.

And his decision to continue to provoke violence and what he calls “retribution” should lead to his incarceration BEFORE trial, as an example to the American people what happens, when anyone, even a former President, chooses to promote undermining of American democracy and the rule of law!

Seven States 2020 Presidential Election Results And Trump Challenge Now Under Further Investigation!

Donald Trump is facing further investigation and likely indictments, and the federal prosecutor Jack Smith has now had all election supervisors testify in the 7 states that the Trump campaign made the center of their challenges to the Presidential Election of 2020!

These seven states are:

Arizona
Nevada
New Mexico
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Georgia

All of these states are certain to be the center of attention in the upcoming Presidential Election of 2024.

Only Nevada and New Mexico went to the Democrats in both elections, while the other five went from supporting Donald Trump and the Republican Party in 2016 to support of Joe Biden in 2020.

So investigation of the pressures brought upon these seven states, and particularly the five which switched from 2016 to 2020, is crucial in the prosecution of Trump, and the center of attention for 2024!

Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia (WANG)–The States Likely To Decide The Presidential Election Of 2024!

Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center For Politics has come out with an estimate of what is likely to occur in the Presidential Election of 2024.

Sabato projects that the Democrats are ahead in states that add up to 260 electoral votes, ten short of the number needed to win the Presidency.

The Republicans are said to be ahead in states that add up to 235 electoral votes.

Democratic leaning states that are not solid include Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

Republican leaning states that are not solid include Texas, Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska.

So according to the Sabato estimate, there are only FOUR states that are truly “Toss-Ups”—Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia or the “WANG’ states, with a total of 43 electoral votes combined.

If everything as estimated occurred, Georgia with 16 electoral votes would be enough for the Democrats to win, while Arizona with 11 electoral votes, or Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes separately would also be enough for the Democrats to win, and with Nevada only having 6 electoral votes, so not enough to win.

Of course, this does not include the possibility of the two states which allow splitting of electoral votes–Maine and Nebraska–having a district vote for the opposition in that state’s popular vote count.

In 2008, Nebraska went for John McCain but gave one electoral vote to Barack Obama in the Second Congressional District; and in 2016, Maine went for Hillary Clinton, but gave one electoral vote to Donald Trump in the Second Congressional District.

Chris Christie The 2024 Republican Version Of Jon Huntsman In 2012 And John Kasich In 2016!

This author and blogger has always tried to find a Republican Presidential contender who he could consider “acceptable” if such candidate was to be the party nominee, and potentially win the Presidency.

So in 2012, former Utah Governor and Barack Obama’s Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman was seen as the “Best” choice of the opposition party, and seen as very competent and decent, although not preferred by this author and blogger over reelection of Obama. Of course, it turned out that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012.

Then in 2016, it was clear to this author and blogger that Ohio Governor John Kasich was the “Best” choice of the 17 Republicans running for President. His record was not “preferable” over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, but like with Huntsman, Kasich came across as very competent and decent, over the eventual nominee, Donald Trump.

Now for 2024, while the Republican field of Presidential candidates is undesirable over the alternative of Joe Biden, it is clear that former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, particularly after last night’s CNN Town Hall, is by far the best choice of a horrible lot.

Christie is, however, far from as “decent” as Huntsman and Kasich were, and one almost wishes that either or both Huntsman and Kasich were running for President now!

But while disagreeing with Christie on many matters, he is strong in condemning Donald Trump, while no other Republican candidate is willing to do so, and he comes across as rational and reasonable.

However, the so called “Bridgegate” scandal that led to blockage of traffic on the George Washington Bridge between New York and New Jersey was a major stain on his record, and his brashness and bullying nature has some elements of Donald Trump.

And of course, he DID work with and support Donald Trump after his own failed candidacy in 2016!

This is more a case of looking for the candidate with the fewest evils, rather than the overall decency and competence of Jon Huntsman and John Kasich.

Christie is the least liked Republican candidate in the field, and is almost certainly to have very little chance of being the nominee, but again, in a field of terrible candidates, it would be “safer” for him to be the opponent of Joe Biden than anyone else in a horrendous field of candidates.

The sad situation that America is faced with in 2024 is that it is absolutely essential that Donald Trump never have a chance for a second term, and hopefully, Christie’s broad based attack on Trump will, at the least, prevent Trump from having the opportunity to be on the ballot at a time when he will be on trial for criiminal actions.

It is also urgent that the nation reelect Joe Biden as the only truly sane answer for the next term in the Presidency!

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Gains Minnesota Support, Now At 205 Electoral Votes!

The movement to change the Presidential Election process from the Electoral College system that has allowed five Presidential elections to be won by the national popular vote loser, has made more progress in the past few days, with Minnesota becoming the 16th state plus the District of Columbia to agree to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact!

Five Presidential Elections have seen the “vote of the people” denied with the popular vote loser becoming President as follows:

1824 Andrew Jackson loses to John Quincy Adams despite 38,000 vote lead
1876 Samuel Tilden loses to Rutherford B. Hayes despite 252,000 vote lead
1888 Grover Cleveland loses to Benjamin Harrison despite 90,000 vote lead
2000 Al Gore loses to George W. Bush despite 540,000 vote lead
2016 Hillary Clinton loses to Donald Trump despite 2.86 million vote lead

The total number of electoral votes needed to win the Presidency is 270, with the 16 states and DC adding up to a total of 205 electoral votes.

The problem is in a divided America all of the states and DC that have agreed to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact are “blue” states.

In order of their adoption by the state legislatures and signing by the governors are the following states: (starting in April 2007 until May 2023)

Maryland
New Jersey
Illinois
Hawaii
Washington
Massachusetts
District of Columbia
Vermont
California
Rhode Island
New York
Connecticut
Colorado
Delaware
New Mexico
Oregon
Minnesota

Two states–Maine and Nevada–passed the compact, but in Maine, a followup required vote failed and in Nevada the Republican governor vetoed the legislation. But in the past two weeks, Nevada passed the legislation again, and it seems almost ready to add its six electoral votes to the total, making it, when it happens, 211 electoral votes.

Six other states saw one of the houses of the state legislature pass the bill–Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Michigan (15), North Carolina (16), Oklahoma (7), and Virginia (13). If these six states were to pass such a bill in the future, it would mean 68 more electoral votes, which with the present 205, would add up to 273, three more than needed, and if Nevada joined the list, it would be 279!

But even if more states were to join this compact, it is likely that there would be a constitutional challenge if, in a future Presidential election, this compact came into reality, and it could cause a major division in the nation.

Two Year Anniversary Of Joe Biden Presidency: Should He Run For Second Term?

Today at 12 Noon marks the two year anniversary of the Joe Biden Presidency!

Considering the difficult political circumstances, of an evenly divided Senate for only the fourth time in American history, and a five seat margin in the House of Representatives, Joe Biden accomplished a great deal in his first two years in office.

From a progressive view, he was the most successful in his first two years domestically than any President since Lyndon B. Johnson in the 1960s with his “Great Society” legislation, which was far greater, but with a massive margin of his party in control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Biden accomplished more than Democrats in the Presidency after Johnson, including Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and even Barack Obama, after their first two years in the Oval Office!

Foreign policy has been difficult, as it always is, but Biden’s strong support of Ukraine in its war with Russia, and backed by NATO, has been a very strong example of his promotion of democracy against totalitarianism, reminiscent of Franklin D. Roosevelt coming to the aid of Great Britain in 1940-1941, before America’s entrance into World War II.

Having said all the above, the question now is should Joe Biden, having reached the age of 80 precisely two months ago, run for a second term, and would he win a second term?

This author and blogger has always had great and warm feelings toward Joe Biden, going back to when he gravitated toward Biden as, in my mind, the replacement in commitment and personality traits of Hubert Humphrey, who was this author’s original political “hero”!

I wish that Biden had been able to run for President in 2016, but his son Beau’s death prevented that, as I believe he would have won the nomination, and would have defeated Donald Trump, and saved America from the nightmare four years of horrendous policies and criminal actions.

Hillary Clinton had too many barriers, including controversies surrounding her and her husband, along with simply being the first woman nominee for President. Of course, Hillary Clinton still won the national popular vote by 2.85 million, and only lost because of Russian collusion with Trump that threw the Electoral College vote to him in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Even a Republican controlled Senate committee came to that conclusion, despite the continued lying and deception that continues unabated to the present.

But the present is the issue, and this author and blogger sincerely believes that while Joe Biden would win a second term, against Donald Trump or anyone else on the horizon, that for the future of the Presidency and of Joe Biden’s own lifespan, that he should announce that he will retire.

It would make him a “lameduck President”, but freed from politics of his own ego, he could be seen as a statesman, helping to bring the future of the nation toward a Democratic Party successor, who would pursue his principles, goals, and common decency and compassion!

We need a future President who has the character traits of Joe Biden, as we do not want to promote selfishness, greed, nastiness, and lack of compassion and common decency, which too many Republicans who plan to run for President, possess as their basic character traits!

This way, Joe Biden can leave office at age 82, with head held high, having accomplished a decent record under difficult circumstances, having assisted for his own succession. And he can have peace of mind, planning his own Presidential Library and Museum, writing his own memoirs, and enjoying his wife, Dr Jill Biden, and his family in a relaxed, well deserved retirement, which is likely to lead to a longer life, than having the stress of another four years in office!

He should not join the list of Presidents who either died in office or had very short retirements, such individuals as Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, and Lyndon B. Johnson!

So, President Biden, do what is best for you and for the nation you have served so well, and announce your decision to leave office two years from today, having insured the succession of a Democratic President who will carry on with your commitment to decency, fairness, and compassion!

Pulitzer Prize Board Upholds Awards Of 2018 To NY Times, Washington Post, On Trump-Russian Collusion In 2016 Presidential Election!

The NY Times and Washington Post, the two “national” newspapers, have received the most Pulitzer Prizes for Journalism in American history–with the NY Times winning 132 and the Washington Post 65.

In 2018, both newspapers won the Pulitzer Prize once again, for their reporting of the Donald Trump Presidential campaign in 2016 colluding with the Russians and Vladimir Putin to help defeat Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump was and remains outraged by such accusations, although a Senate Republican committee in 2019 reaffirmed the truth about that election, that Trump’s narrow victory in three states was fixed!

But now, the Pulitzer Prize Foundation has upheld the correctness of the awards given four years ago, a reaffirmation of freedom of the press and promotion of the truth!