Stephen Douglas

Analyzing Age Of Democratic Presidential Nominees 1828 To The Present!

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The issue of age has been in the forefront of Presidential politics, as a result of the clear decline in office of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the two oldest Presidents ever elected.

When Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980, just weeks short of age 70 at the Inauguration in January 1981, it was a controversial issue, particularly right after the failed Assassination attempt of March 30, 1981, which clearly had some effect on his health over time, as signs of early Alzheimers seemed evident to many in Reagan’s last two years, including to his son Ron Reagan.

It had been pointed out that Dwight D. Eisenhower, leaving the Presidency in January 1961 at age 70 and three months, had stated that no one older than himself should be President.

But as it turned out, we have now had three “elderly” Presidents in the past half century—Reagan, Trump, Biden.

This issue has caused this author and blogger to conduct research on the age of Democratic Presidential nominees, whether winner or losers of the Presidency, going back to the beginnings of the Democratic Party under Andrew Jackson in the 1828 Presidential Election through the Presidential Election of 2024.

The record shows the following for all Democratic Presidential contenders, including first time for those nominated more than once. Altogether, 36 individuals have been Democratic Party nominees, but only 15 have ever been elected President, including two who first succeeded upon the death of the incumbent President—Harry Truman after Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Lyndon B. Johnson after John F. Kennedy.

1828–Andrew Jackson—61
1836–Martin Van Buren–54
1844–James K. Polk–49
1848–Lewis Cass–66
1852–Franklin Pierce–48
1856–James Buchanan–65
1860–Stephen Douglas–47
1864–George McClellan–38
1868–Horatio Seymour–58
1872–Horace Greeley–61
1876–Samuel Tilden–62
1880–Winfield Scott Hancock–56
1884–Grover Cleveland–47
1896–William Jennings Bryan–36
1904–Alton Parker–52
1912–Woodrow Wilson–56
1920–James Cox–50
1924–John W. Davis–51
1928–Alfred E. Smith–55
1932–Franklin D. Roosevelt–51
1945–Harry Truman 60 Upon Succession
1952–Adlai Stevenson–52
1960–John F. Kennedy–43
1963–Lyndon B. Johnson–55 Upon Succession
1968–Hubert Humphrey–57
1972–George McGovern–50
1976–Jimmy Carter–52
1984–Walter Mondale–56
1988–Michael Dukakis–55
1992–Bill Clinton–46
2000–Al Gore–52
2004–John Kerry–61
2008–Barack Obama–47
2016–Hillary Clinton–69
2020–Joe Biden–78
2024–Kamala Harris–60

Of course, age longevity and overall good health is much improved over what it was in the 19th and 20th centuries, but the clear indication is that most Democratic Presidential nominees were under the age of 60 when first nominated for those who had more than one nomination.

Nine of these Democratic nominees were in their 60s, and only Lewis Cass in 1848 (66), James Buchanan in 1856 (65), and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (age 69), were above the age of 62.

And all by himself is Joe Biden in 2020 (age 78)!

So the two oldest Democratic nominees were the last two who ran against Donald Trump, the oldest Republican nominee, although both Clinton and Biden had tried for the nomination of their party when younger, Clinton in 2008 at age 61, and Joe Biden in 1988 at age 46 and again in 2008 at age 66.

Nine of these Democratic nominees were in their 30s and 40s, with the youngest being William Jennings Bryan in 1896 (36) and George McClellan in 1864 (38), and six of the other seven being elected President–James K. Polk in 1844 (49); Franklin Pierce in 1852 (48); Grover Cleveland in 1884 (47); John F. Kennedy in 1960 (43); Bill Clinton in 1992 (46); and Barack Obama in 2008 (47). Only Stephen Douglas in 1860 (47) failed to win the Presidency, and ironically died just four months after the inauguration of his opponent, Abraham Lincoln.

The remaining 17 Democratic nominees were in their 50s, with only five winning the White House—Martin Van Buren 1836 (54); Woodrow Wilson 1912 (56); Franklin D. Roosevelt 1932 (51); Lyndon B. Johnson 1963 upon Succession (55); and Jimmy Carter in 1976 (52).

In summary, 15 Democrats have been elected President, with 11 of them being in their 40s or 50s, and the only exceptions older are: Andrew Jackson (61); James Buchanan (66); Harry Truman (60) upon Succession; and Joe Biden (78).

So in conclusion, it is clear that the best strategy for the Democratic Party in 2028 is to nominate a candidate ideally younger than 61, or at the most age 64, but with 11 potential nominees being in their 50s in 2028, as compared to 4 between 39 and 49 in 2028, and 4 between 61 and 64 in 2028.

Six And A Half Months To Most Crucial Presidential Election Since 1940

Ronald 5 Comments

We are facing this November the fifth most crucial Presidential election in American history.

Every Presidential election matters, of course, and in the midst of each campaign, there are those who will think it is the most important event ever to occur.

But in reality, the number of times that an election has been truly “crucial” is limited to what this author and blogger believes are only a few times.

Those few elections that have been crucial to the extreme would include, chronologically the following:

Election of 1860, a four way race, with the Civil War seen as on the horizon, and Abraham Lincoln winning with only 39.8 percent of the vote, over Stephen Douglas, John C. Breckinridge, and John Bell.

Election of 1864, in which Lincoln defeated former General George McClellan, at a crucial time in the Civil War.

Election of 1932, in which the nation was at its lowest economic point in history, with the failure of Herbert Hoover, and the alternative of Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal.

Election of 1940, when America faced the danger of Fascism in the world, but isolationism reigned, and Franklin D. Roosevelt faced a businessman with no government experience, Wendell Willkie, as the world was engaged in World War II.

Now, in 2020, we face a CoronaVirus Pandemic; a collapsed economy worse than any time since the Great Depression; and a crazed, dangerous President who should have been removed from office for abuse of power, and instead is, effectively, taking the nation over the brink of the cliff that it is facing at this time!

So just as Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt came to the rescue, each of them twice, now Joe Biden and his female running mate face the challenge of the greatest crisis in 80 years, and we have to hope he can gather the strength, courage, and decisiveness of Lincoln, FDR, and other great Presidents, including Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama in difficult moments in their Presidencies!

Vice Presidency Has Led To Presidential Nominations Multiple Times Since The 1960s

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The Vice Presidency was never good breeding ground for Presidential nominations since the Civil War.

Only John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren and John C. Breckinridge were nominated for President before the Civil War, with all winning the Presidency, except for Breckinridge, who had been Vice President under James Buchanan from 1857-1861, and then nominated by Southern Democrats who refused to accept the official Democratic nominee, Stephen Douglas in 1860.

The only Vice President from 1860 to 1960 who was nominated for President was Franklin D. Roosevelt’s third term Vice President, Henry A. Wallace, who ran as the Progressive Party nominee for President in 1948 against his own successor in the Vice Presidency, President Harry Truman.

But since 1960, six Vice Presidents have run as Presidential candidates, including;

Richard Nixon in 1960 and 1968

Hubert Humphrey in 1968

Gerald Ford in 1976 (who had succeeded Richard Nixon under the 25th Amendment)

Walter Mondale in 1984

George H. W. Bush in 1988

Al Gore in 2000

Nixon and Bush won the Presidency, while Ford lost a full term after finishing the partial term he succeeded to, and Gore won the popular vote, but failed to win the Electoral College.

The point is that Joe Biden would be the 7th Vice President who ran for President after serving as Number 2 in the executive branch.

And Nixon the first time, Mondale, Bush, and Gore all had a jump start on the nomination of their party for the Presidency, with only Humphrey and Ford having major challengers.

So at least by recent history in the past half century plus, being a Vice President gives a leap forward to those who wish to run for President.

Donald Trump One Of The Lowest Popular Vote Percentage Winners In American History, And NOT Due To Strong Third Party Performances!

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Donald Trump’s percentage of the popular vote continues to decline, and now makes Trump one of the lowest popular vote percentage winners in American History, and NOT due to strong third party performances.

Right now, Trump has 46.28 percent of the vote and is 2.35 million popular votes behind Hillary Clinton, who has 48.2 percent of the vote.

The only 7 Presidents to have lower percentage are:

John Quincy Adams 1824—30.92

Abraham Lincoln–1860–39.65

Woodrow Wilson–1912–41.84

Bill Clinton–1992–43.01

Richard Nixon–1968–43.42

James Buchanan–1856–45.29

Grover Cleveland–1892–46.02

Before it is all over, Trump is likely to fall lower than Cleveland, and possibly Buchanan, in percentage of the popular vote, when all votes are accounted for.

In each of these seven cases, however, there were more than two strong Presidential candidates, and a third party and twice a fourth party gained electoral votes.

Adams had electoral vote competition from Andrew Jackson, Henry Clay, and William Crawford in 1824.

Lincoln had electoral vote competition from John C. Breckinridge, John Bell, and Stephen Douglas in 1860

Wilson had electoral vote competition from Theodore Roosevelt and William Howard Taft in 1912.

Clinton had electoral vote competition from George H. W. Bush and Ross Perot in 1992.

Nixon had electoral vote competition from Hubert Humphrey and George Wallace in 1968.

Buchanan had electoral vote competition from John C. Fremont and Millard Fillmore in 1856.

Cleveland had electoral vote competition from Benjamin Harrison and James Weaver in 1892.

However, Trump had no third party competitor who took electoral votes away from him or Hillary Clinton, his Democratic opponent.

And only Adams ended up second in popular votes with a percentage of the vote lower than Trump.

So Donald Trump cannot claim a popular mandate by any means.

Ten Most Divisive And Polarizing Elections In American History

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As we near the end of an extremely divisive and polarizing election, it is a good time to look back and judge what were the ten most divisive and polarizing elections in American history.

Chronologically, they would be the following:

The Election of 1800 between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson

The Election of 1828 between John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson

The Election of 1860 between Abraham Lincoln, Stephen Douglas, John C. Breckinridge, and John Bell

The Election of 1876 between Rutherford B. Hayes and Samuel Tilden

The Election of 1884 between Grover Cleveland and James G. Blaine

The Election of 1896 between William McKinley and William Jennings Bryan

The Election of 1912 between Woodrow Wilson, Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and Eugene Debs

The Election of 1948 between Harry Truman, Thomas E. Dewey, Strom Thurmond, and Henry A. Wallace

The Election of 1968 between Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, and George Wallace

The Election of 2000 between George W. Bush, Al Gore, Ralph Nader, and Pat Buchanan

Danger Of Civil Disorder If Donald Trump Refuses To Accept Defeat, Which All Previous Losers Have Accepted With Grace And Dignity!

Ronald 2 Comments

Throughout American history, there has been great emotions as battles for the Presidency go on, but at the end, when the election is over, the loser has always conceded with grace and dignity.

This includes the John Adams-Thomas Jefferson race in 1800, the first time an incumbent has lost to a challenger.

It includes the John Quincy Adams-Andrew Jackson Presidential races in 1824 and 1828.

It includes the Abraham Lincoln–Stephen Douglas–John C. Breckinridge–John Bell four way race on the eve of the Civil War in 1860.

It includes the hotly contested 1876 Presidential race between Rutherford Hayes and Samuel Tilden, resolved by the political deal known as the Compromise of 1877.

It includes the four way contested race of 1912 between Woodrow Wilson, Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and Eugene Debs.

It includes the upset election victory of Harry Truman against Thomas E. Dewey in 1948.

It includes the John F. Kennedy-Richard Nixon race in 1960, which Nixon thought might have been corrupt, but chose not to challenge.

It also includes the Presidential election of 2000, when Al Gore challenged the results in court, but then was graceful once the Supreme Court intervened in favor of George W. Bush.

And it includes the grace and dignity of John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012, when they lost to Barack Obama.

But now, we have had indications that Donald Trump will not concede, and will claim a “rigged” election if he loses, and this will only encourage civil disorder, and the potential for bloodshed and violence, and refusal to allow a peaceful transition to the inauguration and administration of Hillary Clinton.

This is not a laughing matter one iota, and a very worrisome matter!

The Clinton-Trump Debates The Most Significant Since Lincoln-Douglas Senate Debates In Illinois In 1858!

Ronald 4 Comments

Presidential debates have occurred since 1976, and also, originally took place in 1960, but no debate has mattered as much as the one coming up on Monday between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

No more significant debate has occurred since Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas had model debates for the Senate race in Illinois in 1858.

Hillary Clinton is super qualified to be President, while Donald Trump is totally unqualified, and were he to win, American democracy and constitutional order would be endangered.

Donald Trump is a Fascist demagogue, who has no credentials, and has the diplomatic, military, intelligence, and economic experts up in arms over the threat he presents.

Much of the Republican Establishment, including the two living former Republican Presidents, George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush, and much of the conservative media and intellectual class, are deplored by his candidacy.

Trump has insulted, degraded, ridiculed, belittled, and shown a lack of respect toward women, African Americans, Mexicans, Muslims, and the disabled, and has worked to divide Americans, and gained the backing of racists, nativists, misogynists, xenophobes, and all kinds of white supremacists who also are anti semites.

He has praised dictators, including Kim Jong Un of North Korea and Vladimir Putin of Russia, and talks loosely about using the nuclear button.

The man is a clear and present danger who must be prevented from winning the Presidency, and we must all root on Hillary Clinton to score a win over this demagogue on Monday night!

As We Have Oldest Combination Of Presidential Candidates In History, A Look Back At Three Candidates Younger Than TR And JFK!

Ronald 4 Comments

At a time when we have the oldest combination of Presidential candidates in history, with Donald Trump being past 70, and Hillary Clinton to be 69 in October, let’s take a look back at three Presidential candidates who lost, but were all younger than Theodore Roosevelt, our youngest President at 42 years and almost eleven months when he succeeded the assassinated President William McKinley in 1901; and these three Presidential candidates also, therefore, younger than John F. Kennedy, our youngest elected President, who took the oath at 43 years and almost eight months.

Our youngest Presidential nominee of a major party in history is William Jennings Bryan of Nebraska, a former Congressman, who ran as the Democratic nominee for President in 1896 and 1900, when he was younger than TR or JFK. Bryan was 36 and 40 when he ran his first two of three Presidential races, and had he won, he would have been inaugurated 15 days short of his 37th and 41st birthdays.

Our second youngest Presidential nominee was John C. Breckinridge of Kentucky, who was Vice President at age 36 under President James Buchanan from 1857-1861 but was actually 35 at the time of his election. He was the Southern Democratic nominee in 1860 at age 39 although he would have been 40 at the time of the inauguration, running against Republican Abraham Lincoln, Democrat Stephen Douglas, and Constitutional Union nominee John Bell. Breckinridge served in the US House before being Vice President, and later was part of the Confederate government and army during the Civil War, and later served in the US Senate from Kentucky.

Thomas E. Dewey of New York sought the Presidency for the first time in 1940, when he was 38, and serving as Manhattan County District Attorney, but was thought to be too young to be taken seriously. But in 1944, in his first of two Presidential campaigns, when New York Governor, he ran on the Republican Party line against Franklin D. Roosevelt, running for his fourth term as World War II was nearing its last months. Dewey would have been inaugurated about two months short of his 43rd birthday, had he won in 1944, making him about a month younger than TR when he became President.

Dewey was favored in his second round of Presidential candidacy in 1948, when he lost in an upset to Harry Truman, after all public opinion polls projected an easy win but at that point he would have been two months short of 47, at the time of inauguration.

Are We On The Road To A 5th Four Way Presidential Election?

Ronald 3 Comments

In American history, we have had four Presidential elections in which there were four candidates who gained a substantial percentage of popular votes.

The first time was 1824, with Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, William Crawford and Henry Clay.

The second time was 1860, with Abraham Lincoln, Stephen Douglas, John C. Breckinridge, and John Bell.

The third time was 1912, with Woodrow Wilson, Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and Eugene Debs.

The fourth time was 1948, with Harry Truman, Thomas E. Dewey, Strom Thurmond, and Henry A. Wallace.

The first two times, 1824 and 1860, saw the success of new political parties, the Democrats under Jackson by 1828 and the Republicans under Lincoln in 1860.  The third time brought the success of progressivism at its peak under Wilson with Roosevelt’s indirect contributions, and the fourth insured the forward movement in foreign and domestic policy under Truman.

Now in 2016, we could have four candidates, including Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and potentially Bernie Sanders or Jesse Ventura.  And who can deny that Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney or John Kasich might also be potential candidates?

The first three named above seem almost certain, but there is some speculation that Sanders could run on a independent line, and that Jesse Ventura, the former Governor of Minnesota, might run if Sanders fails to be the Democratic nominee, and decides to avoid an independent run.  If Trump is nominated, the odds of Ryan or Romney or Kasich running as the “Establishment” Republican opponent grows, just as is likely that Trump will run as an independent if he is not the party’s nominee.

Hillary Clinton would win against a split Republican Party, but IF Sanders runs or even Ventura, the potential exists, in a four way race, for anything to happen, including the need to use the 12th Amendment, as occurred in 1824, which would give the Republican nominee the advantage, with the Republican control of the House of Representatives!

Major Historic Splits In Democratic Party

Ronald 5 Comments

The Democratic Party has existed for 188 years, since the election Of Andrew Jackson in 1828.

In that nearly two centuries, there have been major splits and divisions:

In 1860, the party split, and the Northern Democrats. the official party, nominated Illinois Senator Stephen Douglas for President, while Vice President John C. Breckinridge was the nominee of Southern Democrats.

In 1896,  the “Gold Democrats” refused to back the party nominee, the  “silver tongued orator”, thirty six year old William Jennings Bryan, who promoted “free silver”, and drew support from the rural states in the Midwest and Great Plains and Mountain West, and kept the South loyal to the party.

In 1948, Southern Democrats broke from the convention that nominated Harry Truman for a full term, and ran South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond as the States Rights (Dixiecrats) candidate.

In 1968, Alabama Governor George C. Wallace formed the American Independent Party, and ran against Democratic nominee Hubert Humphrey.

Notice that it was the South that caused three of the four splits, with the result being Douglas and Humphrey losing because of the split, while Truman won despite Thurmond’s opposition.

The other time, it was the rural West that revolved against the “Eastern Establishment”, represented by Wall Street, but Bryan, nominated three times for President, was unable to win the Presidency, although he helped to shape the Progressive Era with some of his reform ideas.