Electoral Votes

Presidential Election Of 2024 Likely To Hinge On Six States!

It is very clear that American politics has reached the stage where it can be quite certain that the Presidential Election of 2024 will hinge on six states, where both major party Presidential candidates will spend most of their time and effort on winning just those six states that are likely to be in play!

The Republican nominee, almost certainly Donald Trump, will have the clearcut edge in states with 235 electoral votes, and Democratic President Joe Biden will have the advantage in states with 226 electoral votes.

So 77 electoral votes in six states will decide who wins the White House!

Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada

The nation is so bitterly divided that now it all comes down to these six states, unless there turns out to be a suprise.

And in future elections, other states could be in play, depending on voting patterns of new and younger voters!

It used to be that more states were in play, but in the past generation, parties have tended to gain dominance in many states!

The Midwest And Pennsylvania The Fulcrum Of The Presidential Election Of 2024

The heartland of the nation—the Midwest—is the fulcrum of the Presidential Election Of 2024 with its combination of electoral votes.

The states of Illinois (19), Ohio (17), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (10), are likely to decide who wins the Presidency and controls both houses of Congress. Add “next door” Pennsylvania (19) to the mix, and that is a certainty!

All of these states, except Ohio, went to Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020; and Trump won four of these states in 2016—all but Illinois and Minnesota, which went to Hillary Clinton.

The first Republican debate, sponsored by Fox News Channel, this coming Wednesday, will be in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, as will be the site of the Republican National Convention from July 15-18, 2024.

And the Democratic National Convention will be held in Chicago, Illinois from August 19-22, 2024!

So both parties know that the Midwest, plus Pennsylvania, is the most important target in election of the next President of the United States!

One must realize that it was the Upper Midwest where the Republican Party was born in 1854, so next year it is 170 years since the founding of a party now in crisis, due to Donald Trump’s corruption!

Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia (WANG)–The States Likely To Decide The Presidential Election Of 2024!

Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center For Politics has come out with an estimate of what is likely to occur in the Presidential Election of 2024.

Sabato projects that the Democrats are ahead in states that add up to 260 electoral votes, ten short of the number needed to win the Presidency.

The Republicans are said to be ahead in states that add up to 235 electoral votes.

Democratic leaning states that are not solid include Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

Republican leaning states that are not solid include Texas, Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska.

So according to the Sabato estimate, there are only FOUR states that are truly “Toss-Ups”—Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia or the “WANG’ states, with a total of 43 electoral votes combined.

If everything as estimated occurred, Georgia with 16 electoral votes would be enough for the Democrats to win, while Arizona with 11 electoral votes, or Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes separately would also be enough for the Democrats to win, and with Nevada only having 6 electoral votes, so not enough to win.

Of course, this does not include the possibility of the two states which allow splitting of electoral votes–Maine and Nebraska–having a district vote for the opposition in that state’s popular vote count.

In 2008, Nebraska went for John McCain but gave one electoral vote to Barack Obama in the Second Congressional District; and in 2016, Maine went for Hillary Clinton, but gave one electoral vote to Donald Trump in the Second Congressional District.

Electoral Count Act Of 1887 Needs To Be Modernized To Avoid Another January 6!

The Electoral Count Act of 1887 needs to be updated and modernized, to avoid another January 6 situation.

Fortunately, a bipartisan group of Senators is at work on this project.

Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine, with the backing of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, is leading a group of Senators, including Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Chris Coons of Delaware to prevent a repeat of the nightmare created in 2021.

It would clarify the Vice President’s role so that there would never be doubt again about the counting of Electoral Votes.

The law of 1887 came ten years after the contested Presidential Election of 1876, where Republican Rutherford B. Hayes became President by a margin of one vote–185-184–over Democrat Samuel Tilden, who had won the popular vote by about 250,000!

Puerto Rican Migration To Florida In Two Months 200,000, Double Original Estimate: A Harbinger Of Florida Turning “Blue” In Future Presidential Elections

The effects of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico will change future Presidential elections, with the Democratic Party winning the state in future contests for the White House.

Puerto Rico is losing a substantial portion of its citizenry due to the slow and inadequate response on the island to this natural disaster by the Trump Administration.

Some Puerto Ricans, all of whom are citizens of the US, and can register to vote immediately, have migrated to New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, but the vast majority, more than 200,00, double the original estimate, have moved to Florida, preferring warm weather.

Most have settled in Central Florida, in the Orlando and Tampa areas, with the Puerto Rican population having multiplied since the 2010 Census, while a lesser number have moved to South Florida.

As long as these citizens register and vote, the largest number will vote Democratic, and in close races for the White House, that can make a difference, and it could also, over time, affect state elections for Governor and other executive offices, as well as the state legislature.

When Florida becomes reliably “Blue”, it will add 29 electoral votes in the 2020 Presidential election, and more than that once reapportionment of seats based on the 2020 Census, and in time for the 2024 and 2028 Presidential elections.

And when the Hispanic vote of any part of Latin America becomes larger and reliably Democratic, except for Cuban Americans then Georgia, Arizona, and eventually Texas will be “Blue”, and the Republicans are doomed on the Presidential level.

Only by voter suppression and discrimination will the GOP have a chance to win, and one can be sure they will use every imaginable tactic to prevent Hispanic voting, so Democrats have to work incessantly to insure that Hispanics are not denied the right to vote, including law suits to stop this disgraceful tactic of the party that, more than ever, represents the Tea Party mentality.

The Nightmare Year Of Donald Trump, But Suburbia, Women, Minorities, White Collar Educated, Those Under 45, And Independents Are Organizing To End The Trump Presidency

A year ago on this date, Donald Trump “won” the Presidency, with 26 percent of all eligible voters backing him, 46 percent of actual voters, and losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million to Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, and having 8 million others voting for third party candidates, therefore having 11 million more people voting against him than for him.

No President who has won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote has done so poorly, as compared to John Quincy Adams losing to Andrew Jackson by 38,000 votes in 1824; as Rutherford B. Hayes losing to Samuel Tilden by 252,000 votes in 1876; as Benjamin Harrison losing to Grover Cleveland by 110,000 votes in 1888; or George W. Bush losing to Al Gore by 544,000 votes in 2000.

Also, Trump’s Electoral College victory with 304 electoral votes is only 46th of 58 national elections.

The past year, since his victory, has been a horror in so many ways, as Donald Trump has accomplished nothing in legislation, but has undermined a century of progress under Republican and Democratic Presidents from Theodore Roosevelt to Barack Obama in domestic and foreign policy.

He has abused his executive authority to declare war on the environment, promoted discrimination against immigrants and Muslims, advocated the end of government regulation of business, undermining on civil liberties and civil rights, disarray in our foreign relations with our allies and our enemies in the world, destroyed the concept of civility and common decency, and damaged the image of the Presidency itself.

But he has also demonstrated a level of scandal and corruption far greater than the corruption which took place under Ulysses S. Grant, Warren G. Harding, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan.

His appointees, with a few exceptions, have been a total disgrace, making them the worst cabinet in performance and ethics we have ever seen.

Assuredly, Donald Trump will be the second President, after Richard Nixon, to be forced out office in the next year by the Mueller investigation of Russian collusion, obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and violation of the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution.

The reaction against him among intelligent voters is already evident from Tuesday’s off year elections, as suburbia, women, minorities, white collar educated, those under 45, and independents are organizing to end the Trump Presidency and punish the Republican Party that nominated him, have collaborated with him, and are conspiring to enrich the wealthy yet once again, as they did under Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. In so doing, the Republican Party has declared war on the middle class, and shown no compassion for the poor, the sick, the disabled, and senior citizens.

A major wave election in 2018 is in the offing, as the goal is to destroy the cancer of the Trump Presidency, although some of the damage he and his party have done will take decades to eliminate totally from the nation’s domestic and foreign policy.

This is a major national tragedy, a setback that the nation will pay for long term.

Most Disastrous Press Conference Of Any President In American History Occurred Today!

Donald Trump demonstrated total mental disorder at his first press conference as President this afternoon. There has never been a press conference like this one, not even under Richard Nixon.

His behavior was bizarre, unhinged, scary to watch, and totally delusional.

Trump showed that he has the symptoms of Narcissistic Personality Disorder, and just mentioning nuclear weapons in the press conference was terrifying.

He lied, deceived, exaggerated. showed ignorance, and that he was living in a virtual reality outside of the real world.

He showed no concern about antisemitic attacks on Jewish Community Centers all over America in recent weeks, and instead talked about how he was the least antisemitic person there was.

Trump also said he was the least racist of anyone, and also asserted that he had the greatest electoral vote victory since Ronald Reagan, which is not true, but he said he had been told that, which showed how ignorant and lacking in curiosity he is to investigate issues on his own.

We have never had a President like this, not even Richard Nixon, and we are in a constitutional crisis, with him attacking the intelligence agencies, the news media, the foreign policy establishment, and anyone else who dares to challenge him on any issue.

My article on HNN yesterday that said Trump would not last more time in office than, at the most, between James A Garfield and Zachary Taylor in duration (6 and a half to 16 months), has taken off on HNN, and I was interviewed on CTV News Channel in Toronto for five minutes at 905 pm tonight, and will share that link when and if I am able to obtain it.

Divided America: Clinton America Vs Trump America

The final vote count is in for the Presidential Election Of 2016.

Hillary Clinton won 48.05 percent of the popular vote 65,844,610; Donald Trump won 45.96 percent of the popular vote 62,979,636, a lead for Clinton of 2.85 million votes, greater than 11 Presidents of the United States out of 44, including Trump.

Electoral votes–Trump 304, Clinton 227–other electoral votes went to Colin Powell 3; Bernie Sanders 1; Faith Spotted Eagle 1; Ron Paul 1; John Kasich 1, with Mike Pence gaining 305 for Vice President, and Tim Kaine 227; with Elizabeth Warren 2, Maria Cantwell 1, Susan Collins 1, Winona LaDuke 1, and Carly Fiorina 1. Trump is 46th out of 58 elections in percentage of the electoral vote.

Land area–Clinton 15 percent 530,000 square miles Trump 85 percent 3 million square miles

Population—Clinton 54 percent 174 million Trump 46 percent 146 million–not counting over 5 million votes for third party candidates combined.

Clinton won the cities and college towns, native American reservations, areas with heavy black and Latino populations.

Trump won many of the suburbs around cities, plus 80 percent of the nation’s counties.

So we are two Americas–totally different and hostile to each other!

The future is gloomy for any way to unite and advance America, and we have rough times ahead!

The Electoral College Future May Be Bright For Democrats Soon, With Growing Hispanic Population In North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona

Democrats are rightfully very gloomy one month after the election, with the close vote but loss in three “Blue” states–Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

But when one looks down the road, so to speak, the long range future of the party is bright, since the growth of Hispanic-Latino population, and even the Asian American population, is going to have the effect of changing “Red” states to “Blue” over the next decade.

North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona are moving toward a major change in their population, which cannot be reversed, and the Electoral College advantage will definitely be in favor of the Democrats, as a result.

North Carolina with 15 electoral votes, Georgia with 16 electoral votes, Texas with 38 electoral votes, and Arizona with 11 electoral votes, are all growing and becoming more population of these racial minorities, and all four states will have a growth in electoral votes after the Census of 2020 and reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives.

As it is now, these four states have 80 electoral votes, but will have a few more in the 2020s, more than enough to overcome the 46 electoral votes of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

The likelihood of any other of the remaining 15 solid “Blue” states, numbering 15 of the 20 states Hillary Clinton won, going “Red” are extremely unlikely—as the five New England states, four Middle Atlantic states and DC, two Midwestern states, and four Pacific Coast states are all rock solid. The 5 “swing” states that still went to Hillary Clinton–New Hampshire, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico–are also extremely unlikely to swing “Red”, as they did not give in to the sway of Donald Trump. The three western states are becoming more Hispanic and Asian American every year, and Virginia is influenced by its growing Northern Virginia suburbs of the nation’s capital, and New Hampshire by its proximity to Boston. Only New Hampshire might go to the Republicans, but the other four seem certain to remain in the Democratic camp, so New Hampshire with 4 electoral votes is not significant enough to worry about.

So the future is bright, but meanwhile, progressives have to build state parties and win seats in both houses of Congress, a tall order in the short run, but with the hope that long term, the prognosis is much better.

Remember that the three states taken by Trump, all in the Rust Belt, are likely to lose some seats in reapportionment, while the growing states likely to go “Blue” are all to gain seats, so the Electoral College future strongly favors the Democrats.

Just now, if one imagines those four “Red” states going Democratic in the future, the electoral vote of 232 for Hillary Clinton would become 312 with the 80 electoral votes!

And of course, do not write off that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania could revert to the Democratic camp, as the Trump wins were very small margin, less than one percent of all votes cast in the three states, and less than 80,000 votes in total!

79,829–Number That Prevented Hillary Clinton From Winning Presidency!

New vote counts indicate that Hillary Clinton gained about 30,000 votes in Philadelphia that had not yet been counted before today, bringing Donald Trump’s margin in Pennsylvania down from about 77,000 to 47,000 votes!

Add the approximate 10,000 vote margin of Trump in Michigan,and the 22,000 vote margin of Trump in Wisconsin, and that explains Trump’s win over Clinton, despite a 2.5 million popular vote lead for Clinton over Trump.

So anyone who still says voting does not matter now knows it makes ALL the difference in the world, and transforms American history.

And now we know that IF Jill Stein had not been on the ballot in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, assuming all of the Green Party votes would have gone to Clinton, she would have won, again showing how the Green Party made the difference, as it did in New Hampshire and Florida in 2000 with Ralph Nader, and denied Al Gore the Presidency, and gave it to George W. Bush.

This demonstrates that the Green Party has managed to harm the environmental cause twice, and one has to be furious, that the environment was harmed under George W. Bush, and is likely to be harmed greater now under Donald Trump.

So the Green Party did in its own purpose of being, showing the destructive nature of a third party that denied us two outstanding people who should have been President!