Grover Cleveland

Difficult, Challenging Year Ahead In 2024!

America is facing the likelihood that 2024 will be the most tumultuous year imaginable, as the nation faces the following:

A Presidential Election in November where the likelihood is that we will have the first time since 1888 (Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison), that a former President (Donald Trump) is challenging the sitting President (Joe Biden).

A Supreme Court that seems hellbent on moving further to the Far Right on many constitutional matters, despite its tremendously low public opinion rating, making it the most right wing in a century.

A likelihood of new climate crises continuing, and unlikely that much will be done to deal with it, as many people around the nation and the world become victims.

A growing crisis on issues that divide the nation, including voting rights, abortion rights, gay and transgender rights, gun control, antisemitism, civil rights and ethnic and racial minorities, immigration reform, political chaos in Congress, and growing religious extremism, among others.

A world crisis of war in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, with the potential for greater US involvement, and the constantly growing threat of China, North Korea, Iran, and other autocracies, along with the Russian threat to the stability of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, with the continuing war in Ukraine.

Donald Trump’s Threat To Utilize The Insurrection Act Of 1792 To Establish A Military Dictatorship

Hard to believe, but a law passed under George Washington in 1792 to promote a stable American Republic could destroy the Republic under a demagogue such as Donald Trump 233 years later in 2025 if Trump is able to regain the Presidency a year from now!

The purpose of the law was to overcome internal rebellion, best exemplified by the Whiskey Rebellion in Pennsylvania in 1794, but also used by Abraham Lincoln during the Civil War; by Presidents Rutherford B. Hayes and Grover Cleveland in labor disputes; by Presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower and John F. Kennedy to promote Southern integration of schools during the Civil Rights Era ; and by President George H. W. Bush during the Los Angeles riots in 1992.

It is NOT designed to crack down on legal, constitutional right of dissent, including marches, demonstrations, and other displays of nonviolent action, but Trump has stated he would promote mass arrests and deportations upon taking the oath of office on January 20, 2025!

Something must be done to prevent such an outrageous movement toward Fascism, and the destruction of the Bill of Rights, and the first step would be to insure that Donald Trump never gets near the Oval Office again!

One Year To Presidential Election Of 2024, And Joe Biden Looks In Bad Shape!

With one year to the Presidential Election Of 2024, President Joe Biden looks in bad shape, based on a New York Times-Siena College poll.

According to the poll, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in five of six swing state—4 points in Pennsylvania; 5 points in Michigan and Arizona; 6 points in Georgia; 10 points in Nevada; and with Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 2 points.

These statistics are stunning and worrisome, but one must realize that the history of polling shows one year out is no judgment of what will occur on Election Day.

One year ahead, there were no predictions that Harry Truman would win a full term in 1948; or that John F. Kennedy would win in 1960; or Richard Nixon would win in 1968; or Jimmy Carter (an unknown) would win in 1976; or Ronald Reagan would win in 1980; or Bill Clinton would win in 1992; or George W. Bush would win in 2000; or that Barack Obama would win in 2008; or that Donald Trump would win in 2016.

Also, one must realize that never has a President lost reelection to an opponent he had first defeated since Benjamin Harrison lost reelection to Grover Cleveland in 1892.

And with Donald Trump likely to be convicted on some of the 91 charges over four indictments in the next year, to believe that he will be able to defeat the man who defeated him, for the first time in 132 years, is to be living in an era of delusion.

Assuming that the economy will continue to do better, and with international crises a major factor, the President in office is, historically, highly likely to win reelection, particularly against someone who represents chaos, corruption, and incompetence, and as a threat to the American democratic system and to international stability!

But it is also clear that the message and the efforts to reelect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and insure a Democratic controlled House of Representatives and Senate must move full scale ahead, as there is no time for any sense of relaxation about the future of the nation and the world at large!

Presidential Concession Speeches An Endorsement Of American Democracy!

The story of American democracy over two centuries and more has been graceful concession speeches by the losers of Presidential elections. Despite vehement and emotional feelings on both sides of an election, being a “good sport” and conceding in a proper manner is an American tradition!

The only time there was, in effect, no concession speeches was when South Carolina, and eventually ten other Southern states, eventually refused to accept that Abraham Lincoln had won the Presidency in 1860, and began the civil insurrection known to history as the American Civil War!

Other than that one time, losers of Presidential elections have always been gracious and patriotic in their acceptance of the victory of their rivals, until 2020 when Donald Trump refused to concede and provoked the US Capitol Insurrection of January 6, 2021!

Some elections have been very close, as in 1876, when Rutherford B. Hayes defeated Samuel Tilden, in an election which dragged on to final determination until just before Inauguration Day in 1877, with Tilden accepting his loss.

The same situation occurred in 1884, when the Republican Party lost the Presidency for the first time in a generation to Democrat Grover Cleveland by very small margins, but James G. Blaine accepted defeat graciously.

In 1916, we had the second closest Electoral Vote margin after 1876, until later in the year 2000, with loser Charles Evans Hughes being gracious in defeat to President Woodrow Wilson.

The upset election victory of President Harry Truman over New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 was accepted in a proper way by Dewey. And later, Truman had Dewey visit the White House!

Richard Nixon in 1960 had advisers suggest he challenge John F. Kennedy over the close Illinois vote, but Nixon, outgoing Vice President, refused to drag out the matter, and accepted defeat in a gracious manner.

President Gerald Ford was heartbroken in 1976, when he lost to Jimmy Carter, but was very gracious in concession, read by his wife Betty Ford, because the President had developed laryngitis. And the Fords and the Carters became fast friends in later years, a closer friendship than anyone since John Adams and Thomas Jefferson!

Michael Dukakis was way ahead of George H. W. Bush at one point of the 1988 Presidential campaign, but was very appropriate in his concession speech.

President George H.W. Bush was devastated by his loss to Bill Clinton in 1992, as was Bob Dole in 1996, but both were proper in their concessions.

Al Gore fought the good fight in 2000, contesting the result for 36 days, but then conceding, when the Supreme Court intervened, and as outgoing Vice President, rejected any further battle over the Electoral College vote count on January 6, 2001.

Senator John McCain was totally decent and proper in his gracious concession speech, congratulating the nation in 2008, on the election of the first African American President, Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney had the same decency when he lost to Obama in 2012, and Hillary Clinton conceded the morning after the 2016 election to Donald Trump, although totally stunned by the loss.

So there was no excuse, and still there is none today, for any candidate for the Presidency who loses the election to refuse to concede, and instead to cause chaos, disarray, and literal violence, as that provoked by Donald Trump against Joe Biden’s victory in 2020.

So the time has come for Donald Trump to pay the price for the bloodshed and violence he provoked, and to be convicted and sentenced to federal prison.

And his decision to continue to provoke violence and what he calls “retribution” should lead to his incarceration BEFORE trial, as an example to the American people what happens, when anyone, even a former President, chooses to promote undermining of American democracy and the rule of law!

Impeachment Power Being Abused, When It Should Be Rarely Utilized!

The reckless move toward impeachment of President Joe Biden, and or Attorney General Merrick Garland or Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas by the small margin Republican majority in the House of Representatives, is an issue that brings to attention that the impeachment power has been horribly abused, when it should be rarely utilized!

To impeach a cabinet officer is extremely rare, and basically is a no brainer, as it would not lead to conviction in the US Senate.

To impeach a President was always rare, with the only exceptions being Andrew Johnson and later Richard Nixon, although Nixon resigned the Presidency before the whole House of Representatives could vote to impeach him on the charges brought by the majority of the House Judiciary Committee.

The Bill Clinton impeachment was purely political, while the two impeachment cases against Donald Trump were totally justifiable, and the proposal to “expunge” the impeachments is preposterous, and will not take away the stain and the history of the reality of Trump’s abuses in office!

Attempts to impeach the following Presidents went nowhere:

John Tyler
James Buchanan
Ulysses S. Grant
Grover Cleveland
Herbert Hoover
Harry Truman
Lyndon B. Johnson
Ronald Reagan
George H W Bush
George W. Bush
Barack Obama

Unless a case is clear, as with Nixon and Trump, there is NO justification for abusing the impeachment power!

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Gains Minnesota Support, Now At 205 Electoral Votes!

The movement to change the Presidential Election process from the Electoral College system that has allowed five Presidential elections to be won by the national popular vote loser, has made more progress in the past few days, with Minnesota becoming the 16th state plus the District of Columbia to agree to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact!

Five Presidential Elections have seen the “vote of the people” denied with the popular vote loser becoming President as follows:

1824 Andrew Jackson loses to John Quincy Adams despite 38,000 vote lead
1876 Samuel Tilden loses to Rutherford B. Hayes despite 252,000 vote lead
1888 Grover Cleveland loses to Benjamin Harrison despite 90,000 vote lead
2000 Al Gore loses to George W. Bush despite 540,000 vote lead
2016 Hillary Clinton loses to Donald Trump despite 2.86 million vote lead

The total number of electoral votes needed to win the Presidency is 270, with the 16 states and DC adding up to a total of 205 electoral votes.

The problem is in a divided America all of the states and DC that have agreed to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact are “blue” states.

In order of their adoption by the state legislatures and signing by the governors are the following states: (starting in April 2007 until May 2023)

Maryland
New Jersey
Illinois
Hawaii
Washington
Massachusetts
District of Columbia
Vermont
California
Rhode Island
New York
Connecticut
Colorado
Delaware
New Mexico
Oregon
Minnesota

Two states–Maine and Nevada–passed the compact, but in Maine, a followup required vote failed and in Nevada the Republican governor vetoed the legislation. But in the past two weeks, Nevada passed the legislation again, and it seems almost ready to add its six electoral votes to the total, making it, when it happens, 211 electoral votes.

Six other states saw one of the houses of the state legislature pass the bill–Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Michigan (15), North Carolina (16), Oklahoma (7), and Virginia (13). If these six states were to pass such a bill in the future, it would mean 68 more electoral votes, which with the present 205, would add up to 273, three more than needed, and if Nevada joined the list, it would be 279!

But even if more states were to join this compact, it is likely that there would be a constitutional challenge if, in a future Presidential election, this compact came into reality, and it could cause a major division in the nation.

Labor Day Should Remind Us Of Significance Of Labor Unions In American History!

Monday is Labor Day, a celebration of the contributions and sacrifices of generations of workers who struggled to honor the efforts of working people, who had to combat the power of corporations and commit themselves to reform and humane treatment.

The first national holiday came about in the Presidency of Grover Cleveland in 1894, just as we had the Pullman Strike, which led to the imprisonment of Socialist Eugene Debs, but led to the growing success of organized labor over the next decades.

The ultimate triumph of organized labor came in the New Deal of Franklin D. Roosevelt, and while much of the nation, particularly the Southern states, worked against unionization, there was expansion of labor union membership nationally.

Sadly, the Presidency of Ronald Reagan saw labor union growth come to a halt, and has only recently started to increase once again.

But membership in labor unions is only in the midteens in number right now, when it once was about a third to 40 percent.

President Joe Biden, however, is a champion of organized labor, and will speak on Labor Day tomorrow in Pittsburgh, to commemorate labor, and call for the further expansion of unions for workers!

In the Presidential Election of 2020, Biden gained the backing of 56 percent of union households, crucial to his victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in particular!

The Republican Presidential Campaign Has Begun, With Trump Soon To Be Indicted, So Out Of The Running!

Here we are in mid April 2022, seven months before the midterm Congressional and Gubernatorial elections in November, but the Republican Presidential campaign has begun.

It is now clear that Donald Trump will soon be indicted, and that will put him out of the running, and his crowds at rallies are getting smaller and smaller by every estimate.

So Donald Trump will NOT repeat what Grover Cleveland did in 1892, after losing the Presidency in 1888–that is, come back, and run and win the Presidency once again.

And one must realize that even when Grover Cleveland “lost” in 1888, he won the national popular vote, although losing the Electoral College.

So Cleveland actually won the popular vote three times, with only Franklin D. Roosevelt winning four times.

And let us not forget that Donald Trump lost the popular vote by massive margins in 2016 and 2020!

Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee, but the problem is that there are younger, smarter, but even more dangerous “copycats”, who think behaving like Trump, and promoting extremist right wing policies, will be a winnable strategy.

So the fight for 2024 by Democrats and responsible anti Trump Republicans has begun!

Possibility That Neither Donald Trump Nor Joe Biden Will Be On Presidential Ballot In 2024

The possibility now exists that neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden will be on the Presidential ballot in 2024.

There are good reasons for this scenario.

Joe Biden would be 82 a few weeks after the Presidential Election of 2024, and Donald Trump would be past 78 and a half at the time of the inauguration, making both of them the oldest Presidential contenders in American history.

Donald Trump faces multiple lawsuits, and the strong potential for prosecution, both criminal and civil, which could harm any chance of him being the Republican nominee.

And there are many conservatives and Republicans who would want to be rid of the menace of Donald Trump.

Joe Biden’s age, and the hints of possible cognitive tests being bandied about by critics, makes it harder for him to consider a second term, along with all of the problems he is dealing with, which might undermine his future, particularly if the Democrats lose the House of Representatives, and even, potentially, the US Senate.

The feeling of a fresh start, and younger candidates is very appealing to many Americans.

If it turns out that neither Trump nor Biden, and even Vice Presidents Mike Pence and Kamala Harris, are passed by as alternatives, which could be a possibility, then we would have a scenario rarely seen in US history, of Presidential tickets that have neither the President nor Vice President having been nominated for either office.

The only elections since 1824 where no one nominated was ever on a Presidential ballot before being chosen are the following 12 elections out of a total of 50 elections:

1844 election of James K. Polk
1852 election of Franklin Pierce
1868 election of Ulysses S. Grant
1876 election of Rutherford B. Hayes
1880 election of James A. Garfield
1884 election of Grover Cleveland
1896 election of William McKinley
1920 election of Warren G. Harding
1928 election of Herbert Hoover
1952 election of Dwight D. Eisenhower
2008 election of Barack Obama
2016 election of Donald Trump

Presidential Losers Who Ran Again, And Donald Trump!

It has been reported that a former Trump advisor is planning to convince Donald Trump NOT to run again in 2024.

According to the report, this person has, or will tell Trump, that he would not wish to be a two time loser for the Presidency, amidst the belief that Trump’s ego could not handle that idea.

Former two time Democratic Presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson (1952, 1956) is mentioned as the example of the most recent two time nominee who lost twice for the White House.

One would think that this advisor would have more knowledge than just mentioning Stevenson, as five other Presidential candidates lost either twice or three times.

These include Republican Thomas E. Dewey (1944, 1948); Democrat William Jennings Bryan (1896, 1900, 1908); and Whig Henry Clay (1824, 1832, 1844), along with Democrat Martin Van Buren (elected in 1836 but losing in 1840, and 1848 (Free Soil Party), and Federalist Charles C. Pinckney (1804, 1808).

All six of these two or three time losers had real credentials and validity, unlike Donald Trump, who will go down as the worst or near worst President in American history!

But also, Andrew Jackson lost the Presidency in 1824, but won in 1828 and 1832, and William Henry Harrison lost in 1836 but won in 1840.

Also, there is the example of Richard Nixon, who lost in 1960, but came back successfully in 1968 and 1972.

And finally, there is Grover Cleveland, elected in 1884, but losing reelection in the Electoral College in 1888, and yet coming back to a second nonconsecutive term in the White House in 1892!