With one year to the Presidential Election Of 2024, President Joe Biden looks in bad shape, based on a New York Times-Siena College poll.
According to the poll, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in five of six swing state—4 points in Pennsylvania; 5 points in Michigan and Arizona; 6 points in Georgia; 10 points in Nevada; and with Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 2 points.
These statistics are stunning and worrisome, but one must realize that the history of polling shows one year out is no judgment of what will occur on Election Day.
One year ahead, there were no predictions that Harry Truman would win a full term in 1948; or that John F. Kennedy would win in 1960; or Richard Nixon would win in 1968; or Jimmy Carter (an unknown) would win in 1976; or Ronald Reagan would win in 1980; or Bill Clinton would win in 1992; or George W. Bush would win in 2000; or that Barack Obama would win in 2008; or that Donald Trump would win in 2016.
Also, one must realize that never has a President lost reelection to an opponent he had first defeated since Benjamin Harrison lost reelection to Grover Cleveland in 1892.
And with Donald Trump likely to be convicted on some of the 91 charges over four indictments in the next year, to believe that he will be able to defeat the man who defeated him, for the first time in 132 years, is to be living in an era of delusion.
Assuming that the economy will continue to do better, and with international crises a major factor, the President in office is, historically, highly likely to win reelection, particularly against someone who represents chaos, corruption, and incompetence, and as a threat to the American democratic system and to international stability!
But it is also clear that the message and the efforts to reelect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and insure a Democratic controlled House of Representatives and Senate must move full scale ahead, as there is no time for any sense of relaxation about the future of the nation and the world at large!
Al Sharpton said that Biden is down with Blacks and Hispanics.
Ron, your last sentence is key. Messaging will be critical. Biden benefits in many ways on paper with American majorities on a number of issues while Trump is a threat to democracy. All of this and more needs to be strongly messaged in the next year!
Princess Leia, will Blacks and Hispanics and even Muslims really vote for Trump and the Republicans? They will not have any advantage in doing so!
Bob Brennan, you are absolutely correct that messaging will be the decisive factor for 2024!
Anyone who votes for Trump is a fool.
Professor, the impression that I get is that young Blacks, young Hispanics, young Muslims, young people in general would prefer someone more progressive than Biden.
Trump testified in the fraud trial today. Reports are that he was ranting and raving while he was on the witness stand.