US House Of Representatives

Seven Weeks To Midterm Elections, And Democrats Are Gaining A Growing Edge Over Republicans

A New York Times-Siena poll, with seven weeks to the Midterm Elections of 2026, is demonstrating a widening lead in the strength of the Democratic Party, to gain control of both houses of Congress from the Republican Party.

Democratic candidates have a lead over Republicans of 51-43, as Americans have anger over the growing economic inflation, the Iran War, Tariffs, the ICE abuses taking place against immigrants with many being citizens, and the growing concern over the potential dangers of Artificial Intelligence (AI).

On a variety of issues, Democrats have substantial leads over Republicans, including:

Health Care D plus 24
Immigration D plus 7
The Deficit D plus 10
The Economy D plus 7
Cost of Living D plus 8
Foreign Wars D plus 7
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict D plus 11

Independent voters strongly prefer Democrats in this election cycle, with 57 percent planning to vote for Democratic candidates.

Even white voters without college degrees are now a majority against Donald Trump, and voters in general see Republicans as more extreme, elitist, and corrupt, and prefer Democrats on cultural and economic issues.

By an 11 point margin, voters prefer a Democratic Congress, rather than a Republican Congress, for the upcoming 120th Congress (2027-2029).

Younger voters now favor Democrats by 35 percentage points; Hispanic voters by 43 points; and Independent voters by 23 points.

Only 18 percent of Generation Z voters (under age 30), prefer Donald Trump.

Only 28 percent of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while the massive number of 71 percent disapprove.

So the political situation for Democrats looks very promising, and one must remember that the party in the White House traditionally loses seats, and often control of Congress, in midterm elections.

Historically, Midterm Elections Favor Party Opposing The President!!

With the Midterm Congressional Elections of 2026 now two months away, the odds look good for Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives and the US Senate under Republican President Donald Trump.

The Republicans are trying to argue that such will not happen, but history tells us this is a normal scenario throughout most of history, particularly since 1946, the first midterm after World War II.

The only times that this scenario did not occur was in 1998 under Bill Clinton, and 2002 under George W. Bush.

In 1998, the Democrats actually gained 4 seats in the House, and kept the 45 seats they had in the Senate, so the Republicans actually gained nothing in that election year, although they continued to have control of both houses of Congress.

In 2002, with September 11 being an influential factor, the Republican Party actually gained 8 seats in the House, and 2 seats in the Senate, therefore actually gaining control of the upper chamber after being in the minority previously.

But otherwise, the party out of power in Congress ended up gaining control in 1946, with Republicans gaining control of both houses of Congress under Harry Truman, with Democrats losing 54 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate.

In 1950, Truman’s Democratic Party kept control of Congress, but lost 28 seats in the House and 5 seats in the Senate.

Under Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1954, the Republicans lost control of both houses of Congress, which they had won in 1952, losing 18 seats in the House and 2 seats in the Senate.

In 1958, Eisenhower saw a loss of 48 seats in the House and 12 seats in the Senate.

In 1962, in the midst of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Democrats lost 4 seats in the House of Representatives, but gained 4 seats in the US Senate.

In 1966, in the midst of the Vietnam War under Lyndon B. Johnson, the Democrats lost 47 seats in the House, and 3 seats in the Senate, but still had massive margins.

Under Richard Nixon, in 1970, 12 Republican seats were lost in the House, but 2 seats were gained in the Senate.

Under Gerald Ford in 1974, in the midst of the Watergate Scandal and the resignation of Richard Nixon, the Republicans lost 48 seats in the House and 4 seats in the Senate.

Under Jimmy Carter in 1978, Democrats lost 15 seats in the House and 2 seats in the Senate, but retained control of both houses of Congress.

Under Ronald Reagan in 1982, Republicans lost 26 seats in the House and no seats in the Senate. Then, in 1986, Republicans lost 5 seats in the House, and lost 8 seats in the Senate, losing control of that chamber it had gained in 1980.

Under George H. W. Bush in 1990,, the Republicans lost 8 seats in the House and 1 seat in the Senate.

Under Bill Clinton in 1994, the Democrats lost control of both houses as part of the “Republican Revolution”, losing 54 seats in the House and 9 seats in the Senate. Then, in 1998, a surprise as Democrats gained 4 seats in the House and no change in the Senate, while the Republicans kept control.

Under George W. Bush in 2002, after September 11, the Republicans gained 8 seats in the House and two seats in the Senate, gaining the majority in the Senate. But in 2006, Republicans lost control of both houses of Congress, losing 32 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate.

Under Barack Obama in 2010, the Democrats lost the massive number of 63 seats in the House, and 6 in the Senate, losing control of the House to the Republicans. In 2014, the Democrats lost 13 seats in the House and 9 seats in the Senate, losing control of the Senate to the Republicans.

Under Donald Trump’s first term, in 2018, the Republicans lost control of the House, losing 41 seats, but gained two seats in the Senate, and retained the majority in the Senate.

Finally, under Joe Biden in 2022, Democrats lost control of the House by 9 seats, but gained one in the Senate, and kept control.

In 2026, two months from now, we will see what transpires.

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Potential Democratic Presidential Contenders In The Presidential Election of 2028

Yesterday, this author and blogger outlined and discussed the potential list of Republican Presidential contenders in the Presidential Election of 2028.

Today, we will outline the list of potential Democratic Presidential contenders, which is much longer a list than the 13 Republicans seen as likely to run in 2028 primaries.

In no special order, the list includes the following, a total of 21 potential nominees:

Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia
Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia
Governor Wes Moore of Maryland
Former Vice President Kamala Harris of California
Outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom of California
Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York
Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona
Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (now from Michigan)
Governor JB Pritzker of Illinois
Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky
Outgoing Governor Jared Polis of Colorado
Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey
Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan
Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut
Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona
Former Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel
Congressman Ro Khanna of California
Outgoing Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan
Former Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island
Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland

So in total, there are 21 potential Democratic Presidential contenders two months before the Midterm Elections of 2026.

Eight on the list are US Senators; Seven are Governors; Three are former Executive appointments; Two are members of the House of Representatives; and former Vice President Kamala Harris finishes the list.

Also, five contenders are from crucial “Swing States”, Georgia (Ossoff, Warnock); Arizona (Kelly, Gallego); and Pennsylvania (Shapiro); and one is from a “red state”, Kentucky (Andy Beshear).

Whether all of this list will actually announce is unlikely, but a large number will do so.

So in summary, the list of contenders are a total of 34, with 21 Democrats and 13 Republicans.

Donald Trump’s Attack On Mail Ballots A Major Crisis!

President Donald Trump clearly is an authoritarian whose aim is to destroy American democracy, with his latest ploy being to attack mail ballots in his push to prevent any possibility of the opposition Democrats gaining control of the House of Representatives and US Senate in the Midterm Elections of 2026 two months from now.

When one examines the states and the use of mail ballots, it is noticeable that the majority of states with high percentage of citizens voting by mail are “Blue” States, although not only such states.

Statistics show that the top ten states include primarily “Blue” states, including Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Colorado, Utah, California, Arizona, Vermont, District of Columbia, Nevada, and Michigan.

Only Utah is a reliably “Red” state, with Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan being “Battleground” states.

Notice also that most of the top ten states in mail voting are “Western” states.

The first five states have between 90 and 100 percent mail voting, with California and Arizona in the 80s; Vermont and DC in the 60s; with Nevada at 54 percent and Michigan at 37 percent. Florida and Nebraska follow at 35 percent, both “Red” states.

At the same time, Donald Trump and his family that votes in Florida always vote by mail ballot, so clearly, total hypocrisy.

The fact that the majority of the Supreme Court has been assisting Trump in his ploy to interfere with the elections is outrageous.

Also, the made up argument that massive numbers of noncitizens are voting has been shown to be totally without reality.

Donald Trump’s Interference With Elections A Major Crisis!

President Donald Trump has promoted interference with elections, creating a major crisis for American democracy.

If this interference is not stopped, the nation is moving toward autocracy and dictatorship.

Already, Trump provoked the US Capitol Insurrection on January 6, 2021, trying to prevent the House and Senate from confirming Joe Biden’s victory over Trump in the Presidential Election Of 2020.

This has led to many Republicans refusing to accept that Biden legitimately won the Presidency, and “Election Deniers” abound in Congress and in state elections ever since, undermining the concept of peaceful transfer of government.

Therefore, Trump has promoted gerrymandering of Congressional seats in an attempt to keep the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, and has claimed massive voter fraud. He has also attempted, so far unsuccessfully, to promote legislation that would prevent many eligible voters from their right to vote in elections.

The NY Times has published 12 factors that are alarm bells, including:

Manipulating the Law to Stay in Power
Stifling Speech and Dissent
Persecuting Political Opponents
Bypassing the Legislature
Using the Military At Home
Defying the Courts
Declaring False Emergencies
Vilifying Marginalized Groups
Controlling Information
Trying to Take Over Universities
Creating a Cult Of Personality
Using Power For Personal Profit

On a scale of 1-10, the most advanced threats are:

Using Power For Personal Profit
Vilifying Marginalized Groups
Creating A Cult of Personality
Persecuting Political Opponents
Bypassing the Legislature
Declaring False Emergencies
Stifling Speech And Dissent

These seven categories are 5-7 on the scale of 10.

The other five categories range from 2-4 on the scale of 10, and are rapidly being escalated.

It is urgent and essential that all actions be pursued to stop the threat to American Democracy that is rapidly escalating.

Congress Is On Way To Most Turnover In Any Cycle In American History, For The Upcoming 120th Congress (2027-2029)

The 119th Congress (2025-2027) is setting a record for turnover, leading to the most massive number of members who will no longer be members in the 120th Congress (2027-2029).

Based on the latest information, but certain to be added to over the next few months, the statistics as of now show the following:

At least, 83 Incumbents will NOT be returning:

70 members of the House of Representatives, including 30 Democrats and 40 Republicans

13 US Senators, including 9 Republicans and 4 Democrats

Retirements, Resignations, Deaths, Seeking Other Offices, and Reelection Primary Losses are the factors that are causing massive turnover, and with more to come after more primaries and Election Day results.

Seven sitting Democrats and three Republicans in the House have lost primaries, and two Republican Senators also lost their primaries, John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy.

Also, 27 House members have given up their seats to run for another office, with 13 losing their bids for another office. Additionally, Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama is not running for reelection, but is the Republican nominee for Governor.

Five House members have died during this Congress, as well as Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.

Additionally, there have been seven resignations, mostly due to ethics related charges, but also appointment or election to other offices, as well as the resignation of Marjorie Taylor Greene in opposition to Donald Trump on the Epstein Scandals matter and other breaks with Trump.

It is good that the next Congress will be, assuredly, much younger, with the move against endless service of long term members being a positive development.

One more major moment of challenge of age against youth will be the September 1 Massachusetts primary for the Senate, where Senator Ed Markey, age 80, with 37 years in the House of Representatives and 13 plus years in the US Senate, faces the challenge of Congressman Seth Moulton, who is 47 years old and has served 12 years in the lower chamber.

Markey is a strong progressive with an outstanding record, but it seems to most observers that it is time for a younger generation to take over.

Amazingly, Markey held off former Congressman Joseph Kennedy III six years ago, despite the Kennedy name, and it will be a close watched primary coming up two weeks from now.

Tucker Carlson Move Toward Third Party Movement: Splintering Of Republican Party After Trump!

Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson is making moves toward a third party movement, disillusioned with Donald Trump, and making for a massive split in the MAGA movement, as planning for the Presidential Election of 2028 moves forward, even before the likely disastrous Republican Party Midterm Elections in November 2026.

Joined by former Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene and outgoing Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie at his Maine compound, Carlson announced a ten point program of opposition to Donald Trump and his policies and programs.

Particular emphasis was given to the fury over the Iran War; US support of Israel in its war in Gaza; and the controversy of release of the Epstein files.

If this splinter movement of discontented MAGA Republicans gets off the ground, it could spell massive trouble for the Republican Party in the battle over the Presidency in 2028.

While Carlson denies he would announce as a Presidential candidate, there is the potential for others disillusioned with Donald Trump on the extreme Right to complicate the potential for Vice President JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Ron DeSantis, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, or other potential contenders.

Democrats In Michigan Reject Party Establishment, Nominate Abdul El-Sayed For Senate Race!

Democratic Party voters, by a narrow margin of about 15,000 votes, have rejected the “Party Establishment” which backed Congresswoman Haley Stevens, and have nominated progressive leftist Abdul El-Sayed for the Senate nomination, against Republican nominee, former Congressman Mike Rogers, for the election in November, which will decide who will replace retiring Senator Gary Peters.

On first thought, it might be believed that the result is disturbing, but when one goes beyond the political propaganda, it is clear that while El-Sayed is critical of Israel’s war in Gaza against the Palestinians, he is NOT antisemitic OR anti the right of Israel to exist, but believes that the Palestinians also have the right to exist, and that the war in Gaza and the West Bank, which has led to 75,000 deaths, mostly women and children, needs to end.

One can be pro Israel, but not pro anything that nation and its leadership does, just as is the same with the United States and its leadership.

The battle to retain the Michigan Senate seat for the Democrats, and for them to gain the four seats from Republicans that are needed to gain control of the US Senate, is an urgent one.

Already, Donald Trump is calling El-Sayed a “Communist”, utilizing the old idea of the Red Scare promoted by Senator Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin in the 1950s, and this despicable tactic must be vigorously opposed by every decent person in Michigan, and nationally.

Ironically, Trump consorts all the time with “Communists”, such as Vladimir Putin of Russia, Xi Jinping of China, and Kim Jong Un of North Korea, wishing to be a tyrant and dictator as they are for sure.

El-Sayed is a very impressive and acomplished person, attending and graduating with high honors from the University of Michigan, and giving the commencement address. He had two years of medical school at the University of Michigan, followed by a Rhodes Scholarship to Oxford University in England, and then an MD degree from Columbia University, and went into public health epidemiology work, rather than pursue a medical license. He became a public health professor at Columbia University, and then, Health Director of Detroit, and then, of Wayne County, Michigan.

El-Sayed was endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Senator Chris Van Hollen, and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, outgoing Senator Gary Peters, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and other establishment Democrats backed Haley Stevens in a losing, although, close margin campaign.

El-Sayed is an accomplished dynamic speaker and podcaster, and would be the first Muslim US Senator, although there are and have been a few Muslim members of the House of Representatives. To date, there have been five Muslim members of the lower house, with one, Keith Ellison from 2007-2019, who has been Attorney General of Minnesota since 2019.

Ohio Republicans A Disaster, Have Besmirched Ohio Historical Reputation!

The state of Ohio has a great history in many ways, including 8 Ohio Born Presidents, all Republicans, except for WH Harrison, who was a Whig.

William Henry Harrison
Ulysses S. Grant
Rutherford B. Hayes
James A. Garfield
Benjamin Harrison
William McKinley
William Howard Taft
Warren G. Harding

It must be said that none of these 8 Ohio Presidents have ranked high in history, and with Grant and Harding sadly presiding over massive corruption in their eras 50 years apart.

William McKinley is usually considered the highest ranking of these 8 Presidents, with William Howard Taft close behind, and with James A. Garfield, considered a tragic figure, as a potentially gifted President, assassinated after only six months in office in 1881.

Now, we have Vice President JD Vance, who was born in Ohio, and just celebrated his 42nd birthday two days ago, on August 2.

Considered likely to become President during this term, due to Donald Trump’s rapid mental decline and other age related issues, his reputation is not impressive, and if he is still Vice President by the time of the Presidential primaries, he might face strong challenges from other Republicans, most notably Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

But beyond this situation, we also have the scandalous situation involving Cleveland area Congressman Max Miller, involved in a divorce from the daughter of Senator Bernie Moreno, with all kinds of horrendous accusations of abuse and threats to his former wife and their 2 year old daughter.

Moreno is calling for Miller to resign from Congress, and get mental help for his horrendous behavior, which has included other accusations with other women and with law enforcement in the past, and the reaction has been fierce by both sides.

But also, Moreno himself showed lack of dignity by using foul language in the committee hearing that attacked Dr. Anthony Fauci for his handling of the COVID 19 Pandemic response, when Fauci was heroic in his actions and advice, having to navigate the lunacy and craziness of Donald Trump regarding that epidemic in 2020.

This, along with the candidacy of Tech Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy as the Republican nominee for Governor, despite his controversial outspokenness and extremist views, puts the state of Ohio in the forefront of controversy that undermines the state’s reputation.

It is hoped that Democrat Amy Acton, a physician, public health leader, and nominee for Governor, can succeed in turning Ohio in a different direction, but Ohio has become very “RED”, after years of being a “swing state” historically.

Acton was seen as a “hero”, much like Dr. Anthony Fauci, in the early period of the COVID 19 Pandemic, but later faced vilification, much like the renowned Fauci, with both being totally correct in their reactions to the epidemic, but suffering from scientific ignorance by their critics.

Donald Trump Public Opinion Ratings Lowest Since Polling Began In 1940, Except Before Richard Nixon Resigned In 1974!

President Donald Trump’s Public Opinion ratings have reached an all time low, in the lower 30s, in all polling, the worst of any President since polling began in 1940, including his first term at the end, when Trump was impeached over the January 6, 2021 US Capitol Insurrection, and his ratings had collapsed.

Only when Richard Nixon was days away from resignation, due to the Watergate Scandal in the summer of 1974, were ratings lower.

This includes the low moments of all Presidents over the past 86 years, and clearly, Trump is in “free fall”, as the Midterm Congressional and Gubernatorial Elections of 2026 are now three months away from today.

Based on history of Midterm Elections, it would seem likely that Democrats would be favored to win control of the House of Representatives, and a reasonable possibility of also gaining the Senate majority, next month.

The most alarming statistic is that white voters without a college degree have turned strongly negative against Trump, and Latinos have also become extremely critical of Trump.

The “Affordability” issue (higher cost of living, specifically gasoline and food prices), the Iran War, and the issue of ICE abuses are the key matters that have led to this all time low, and with the likelihood that the bottom has not been reached.