Benjamin Harrison

Difficult, Challenging Year Ahead In 2024!

America is facing the likelihood that 2024 will be the most tumultuous year imaginable, as the nation faces the following:

A Presidential Election in November where the likelihood is that we will have the first time since 1888 (Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison), that a former President (Donald Trump) is challenging the sitting President (Joe Biden).

A Supreme Court that seems hellbent on moving further to the Far Right on many constitutional matters, despite its tremendously low public opinion rating, making it the most right wing in a century.

A likelihood of new climate crises continuing, and unlikely that much will be done to deal with it, as many people around the nation and the world become victims.

A growing crisis on issues that divide the nation, including voting rights, abortion rights, gay and transgender rights, gun control, antisemitism, civil rights and ethnic and racial minorities, immigration reform, political chaos in Congress, and growing religious extremism, among others.

A world crisis of war in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, with the potential for greater US involvement, and the constantly growing threat of China, North Korea, Iran, and other autocracies, along with the Russian threat to the stability of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, with the continuing war in Ukraine.

One Year To Presidential Election Of 2024, And Joe Biden Looks In Bad Shape!

With one year to the Presidential Election Of 2024, President Joe Biden looks in bad shape, based on a New York Times-Siena College poll.

According to the poll, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in five of six swing state—4 points in Pennsylvania; 5 points in Michigan and Arizona; 6 points in Georgia; 10 points in Nevada; and with Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 2 points.

These statistics are stunning and worrisome, but one must realize that the history of polling shows one year out is no judgment of what will occur on Election Day.

One year ahead, there were no predictions that Harry Truman would win a full term in 1948; or that John F. Kennedy would win in 1960; or Richard Nixon would win in 1968; or Jimmy Carter (an unknown) would win in 1976; or Ronald Reagan would win in 1980; or Bill Clinton would win in 1992; or George W. Bush would win in 2000; or that Barack Obama would win in 2008; or that Donald Trump would win in 2016.

Also, one must realize that never has a President lost reelection to an opponent he had first defeated since Benjamin Harrison lost reelection to Grover Cleveland in 1892.

And with Donald Trump likely to be convicted on some of the 91 charges over four indictments in the next year, to believe that he will be able to defeat the man who defeated him, for the first time in 132 years, is to be living in an era of delusion.

Assuming that the economy will continue to do better, and with international crises a major factor, the President in office is, historically, highly likely to win reelection, particularly against someone who represents chaos, corruption, and incompetence, and as a threat to the American democratic system and to international stability!

But it is also clear that the message and the efforts to reelect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and insure a Democratic controlled House of Representatives and Senate must move full scale ahead, as there is no time for any sense of relaxation about the future of the nation and the world at large!

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Gains Minnesota Support, Now At 205 Electoral Votes!

The movement to change the Presidential Election process from the Electoral College system that has allowed five Presidential elections to be won by the national popular vote loser, has made more progress in the past few days, with Minnesota becoming the 16th state plus the District of Columbia to agree to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact!

Five Presidential Elections have seen the “vote of the people” denied with the popular vote loser becoming President as follows:

1824 Andrew Jackson loses to John Quincy Adams despite 38,000 vote lead
1876 Samuel Tilden loses to Rutherford B. Hayes despite 252,000 vote lead
1888 Grover Cleveland loses to Benjamin Harrison despite 90,000 vote lead
2000 Al Gore loses to George W. Bush despite 540,000 vote lead
2016 Hillary Clinton loses to Donald Trump despite 2.86 million vote lead

The total number of electoral votes needed to win the Presidency is 270, with the 16 states and DC adding up to a total of 205 electoral votes.

The problem is in a divided America all of the states and DC that have agreed to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact are “blue” states.

In order of their adoption by the state legislatures and signing by the governors are the following states: (starting in April 2007 until May 2023)

Maryland
New Jersey
Illinois
Hawaii
Washington
Massachusetts
District of Columbia
Vermont
California
Rhode Island
New York
Connecticut
Colorado
Delaware
New Mexico
Oregon
Minnesota

Two states–Maine and Nevada–passed the compact, but in Maine, a followup required vote failed and in Nevada the Republican governor vetoed the legislation. But in the past two weeks, Nevada passed the legislation again, and it seems almost ready to add its six electoral votes to the total, making it, when it happens, 211 electoral votes.

Six other states saw one of the houses of the state legislature pass the bill–Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Michigan (15), North Carolina (16), Oklahoma (7), and Virginia (13). If these six states were to pass such a bill in the future, it would mean 68 more electoral votes, which with the present 205, would add up to 273, three more than needed, and if Nevada joined the list, it would be 279!

But even if more states were to join this compact, it is likely that there would be a constitutional challenge if, in a future Presidential election, this compact came into reality, and it could cause a major division in the nation.

One Term Presidencies That Mattered: Jimmy Carter, George HW Bush!

President Joe Biden stated at his end of first year press conference yesterday, that he planned to run for a second term in 2024, and that Kamala Harris would again be his running mate.

That is to be expected at this time, but by early 2023, Biden will need to make a final decision on running, so as to open the race to alternative choices if he announces he will retire.

The concept that a President must seek reelection was not the case with three Presidents, who decided not to run–James K. Polk in 1848, James Buchanan in 1860, and Rutherford Hayes in 1880. But Polk, despite not running for another term, is considered to have accomplished his goals, and as it turns out, his health was not good, and he died 105 days after leaving office in 1849.

Buchanan and Hayes are not considered to have had successful terms, and they may have sensed that they could not win reelection.

Other one term Presidents, such as Benjamin Harrison and Herbert Hoover, had horrible depressions to deal with, helping to cause their defeats in 1892 and 1932, and William Howard Taft had a split in his party with former President Theodore Roosevelt, which doomed his campaign for reelection in 1912.

Gerald Ford was a special situation, having not been elected, succeeding Richard Nixon, and having a bad economy, which doomed his desire for election to a full term in 1976, although he is considered in a kind manner at this point, having worked to unite America after the Watergate Scandal and resignation of Nixon.

But the two most recent Presidents defeated for reelection, before Donald Trump, had real accomplishments in office, although they were unable to win a second term, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1992.

Clearly, all Presidents since Rutherford Hayes in 1880, who have survived a term, have attempted to be reelected, but since Biden will be 82 years old weeks after the Presidential Election of 2024, he might decide not to run, or his health might be such that he is told he should not run.

Presidents And The Month Of August

Presidents and the month of August have quite a history, with nine Presidents connected to the month.

Five Presidents were born in August:

August 4, 1961–Barack Obama
August 10, 1874–Herbert Hoover
August 19, 1946–Bill Clinton
August 20, 1833–Benjamin Harrison
August 27, 1908–Lyndon B. Johnson

One President died in August:

Warren G. Harding–August 2, 1923

One President resigned in August:

Richard Nixon–August 9, 1974

Two Presidents succeeded to the Presidency in August:

Calvin Coolidge–August 2, 1923
Gerald Ford–August 9, 1974

The Record Of Donald Trump

Donald Trump has “many” accomplishments that no other President has had over the long haul of American history.

He is the first President not to serve a second term in the past 28 years, since George H. W. Bush, and only the 11th in history.

He is the first President since Herbert Hoover to lose the Presidency, the House of Representatives, and the US Senate.

He is the first President to lose hundreds of thousands of Americans to a pandemic since Woodrow Wilson a century ago.

He is the first President to lose the popular vote twice since Benjamin Harrison in the Gilded Age, and by massive margins unlike Harrison.

He is the first President to boycott his successor’s inauguration since Andrew Johnson a century and a half ago.

He is the first President ever elected with the help and collaboration of a foreign government, the Russian Federation.

He is the first President ever to fail to gain a majority popular vote approval rating since polling began in the late 1930s.

He is the first President to be impeached twice in the same term of office.

He is the first President ever to have a member of their own party vote for conviction in an impeachment trial, in both trials.

He is the first President ever to refuse to concede defeat.

He is the first President ever to insure a peaceful transfer of power.

He is the first President ever to actively incite a terrorist attack against his own government.

He is the first President in the Social Media age to be banned by Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram from posting, because he incites right wing domestic terrorism.

He is the first President who will be indicted and go to trial for criminal and civil violations in American history.

He is the President who will have more convictions of people engaged in corruption in his name, even more than Richard Nixon.

He is the first President who is mentally deranged and a danger to the Constitution and rule of law, and to the future of American democracy.

Donald Trump, The Republican Party, And Two “Big Lies”!

Donald Trump lost the national popular vote twice, by massive margins, much more than George W. Bush in 2000, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and John Quincy Adams in 1824.

Together, he lost by nearly 10 million votes–2.85 million in 2016, and 7.1 million in 2020.

The “Big Lie” is that Donald Trump won EITHER time, 2016 and 2020.

It is clear that the Russians and Vladimir Putin helped to fix the election in 2016 in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, giving Trump the victory by a combined total of about 78,000 votes.

In 2020, Trump lost much more massively, even in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, along with Georgia and Arizona, but his party is perpetuating a myth that helped to provoke the Capitol Insurrection of January 6, 2021, for which Donald Trump should be held accountable and be in prison!

Conservatism and the Republican Party are being destroyed, and the idea that nearly 70 percent of Republicans in polls believe the “Big Lie”, and refuse to acknowledge Joe Biden won the Presidency is beyond any sense of reality. This undermines American democracy, rule of law, and respect for the Constitution.

The Republican Party officeholders, with the exception of a small group, including Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, Adam Kinzinger, Lisa Murkowski, and a few others, has become a Fascist Party, a right wing Populist Party, a worshipper of Donald Trump, as if he is their Adolf Hitler or Benito Mussolini, unwilling or unable to accept the truth, and living in an alternate reality!

Amazingly, President Jimmy Carter And Vice President Walter Mondale Celebrating 40 Years Of Retirement!

On Inauguration Day this Wednesday, Former President Jimmy Carter and former Vice President Walter Mondale will celebrate 40 years of retirement from their term of office in the White House!

This is an amazing record, and is an accomplishment which will never be surpassed in the future, and to top it off, Rosalynn Carter is also still with her husband, celebrating 74 and a half years of marriage, an all time record for any President and First Lady!

Jimmy Carter is three months past 96, an all time record for any President, and Walter Mondale is past 93, making him the fifth oldest Vice President in age, with Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush two of the four longer lived Vice Presidents.

Jimmy Carter has lived longer than any Vice President, except for John Nance Garner, first Vice President under Franklin D. Roosevelt, who was 98, but only a couple of weeks short of age 99. The other Vice President who lived longer than any other than Garner was Levi Morton under President Benjamin Harrison, who died on his 96th birthday!

The reputation of Jimmy Carter is on the rise, more so because of the totally reprehensible and diametrically opposite personality and character of Donald Trump.

Rosalynn Carter has a dignified reputation as First Lady, a lady of class, unlike the tramp image and disgraceful reputation of Melania Trump, who will go down as the absolute worst First Lady in American history!

And Walter Mondale has the reputation of being the most active, engaged, and productive Vice President in American history, with Jimmy Carter given a lot of the credit, since he did not perceive his own Vice President as a threat, and in this regard, Barack Obama and Joe Biden stand out as equally outstanding.

And one can sense Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will add to the reputation of Carter-Mondale and Obama-Biden, particularly important after the mediocre and submissive Mike Pence under Donald Trump!

Joe Biden Victory Looking More Impressive As Vote Count Has Reached 99 Percent!

Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in the Presidential Election of 2020 looks more impressive by the day, and now, 99 percent of the vote is in, and Biden has 80.1 million votes to Trump’s 73.9 million votes, so a lead in popular votes of 6.2 million!

Assuming the same division of votes in the remaining one percent not yet tabulated, the final vote should be 80.9 million votes for Biden, and 74.6 million votes for Trump, a margin of 6.3 million votes.

This is nearly two and a half times the popular vote lead of 2.85 million that Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in 2016, and it makes Trump on the losing side of the popular vote in the two elections by a total of 9.1 million!

So Trump in the popular vote was twice a massive loser, with George W. Bush the loser in 2000 by 540,000; Rutherford Hayes in 1876 the loser by about 250,000; Benjamin Harrison the loser in 1888 by about 90,000; and John Quincy Adams the loser in 1824 by about 38,000.

And Joe Biden won the Sun Belt states of Arizona and Georgia, and retook the Midwest states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins in 2016—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin!

When Donald Trump won in 2016, he declared it a landslide with 306-232 in the Electoral College, but now that Joe Biden has accomplished the same electoral vote by taking five states from Biden, suddenly it is sore loser behavior, very infantile, on the part of Donald Trump, but the plans for the inauguration and setting up of the government over the next 53 days will continue to move forward!

Trump may never concede, but it does not matter, and only makes him look terrible in the eyes of history. And he may not show up at the Inauguration, which only John Adams in 1801, John Quincy Adams in 1829, and Andrew Johnson in 1869 failed to do!

And let us be honest, who cares if Trump shows up or acts civil, since that is NOT his nature, and his presence would actually besmirch the festivities, as we finally have dignity, decency, competence, knowledge, compassion and empathy back in the White House, which is sorely needed after the nightmare disaster of the corrupt Trump regime!

Will Ohio Go Against The National Trend In 2020?

The state of Ohio has long been seen as a crucial state, and no Republican has been elected President without winning Ohio, including Donald Trump in 2016.

So only Gerald Ford has been a Republican President and lost Ohio, when he ran for a full term against Jimmy Carter in 1976. Once we knew that Carter had won Ohio, it was clear Ford would not have a full term, after succeeding the resigned Richard Nixon in 1974.

When one looks at party history since the Republican Party was founded in 1854, we find only five elections in which the Republican candidate lost Ohio to a Democrat, as follows:

John C. Fremont 1856 lost to James Buchanan

James G. Blaine 1884 lost to Grover Cleveland

President Benjamin Harrison 1892 lost to former President Grover Cleveland

Thomas E. Dewey 1944 lost to President Franklin D. Roosevelt

Richard Nixon 1960 lost to John F. Kennedy

So only three Democratic Presidents have won the White House without winning Ohio–James Buchanan in 1856, Grover Cleveland in 1884, and John F. Kennedy in 1960, with Cleveland second time and FDR fourth time winning a return to the White House without winning Ohio.

Right now, polls show Donald Trump winning Ohio by 5 points instead of the 8 point lead he had over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

So if polls hold up, Joe Biden will be the fourth Democrat to become President without Ohio, only the sixth time in 166 years, and the first time since 1960.

Ohio has been steadily losing electoral votes, as the balance of population has moved South and West, and will likely lose one electoral vote in 2024 and 2028, going down from 18 to 17, so will have less impact politically in the future!