Electoral College

Presidential Election Of 2024 Likely To Hinge On Six States!

It is very clear that American politics has reached the stage where it can be quite certain that the Presidential Election of 2024 will hinge on six states, where both major party Presidential candidates will spend most of their time and effort on winning just those six states that are likely to be in play!

The Republican nominee, almost certainly Donald Trump, will have the clearcut edge in states with 235 electoral votes, and Democratic President Joe Biden will have the advantage in states with 226 electoral votes.

So 77 electoral votes in six states will decide who wins the White House!

Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada

The nation is so bitterly divided that now it all comes down to these six states, unless there turns out to be a suprise.

And in future elections, other states could be in play, depending on voting patterns of new and younger voters!

It used to be that more states were in play, but in the past generation, parties have tended to gain dominance in many states!

Time For Liz Cheney To Announce Third Party Conservative Bid For Presidency To Insure Donald Trump Defeat!

Former Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney, a hero for defying Donald Trump, and losing her Congressional career after the January 6, 2021 US Capitol Insurrection, now faces a decision that she should run for President on a third party Conservative line to save the nation from the MAGA Republicans and their attack on the Constitution, rule of law, and American democracy.

Cheney may not agree with Joe Biden, but clearly sees Donald Trump as a massive threat, who would be a total disaster as a Fascist dictator, and there are innumerable conservatives who believe as she does, including many who had worked for Trump in the White House.

Cheney is well aware she could not win the White House, but could insure enough votes to defeat any attempt of Trump to win the Electoral College.

We must all wish her good luck, as she takes on the ultimate challenge to end Donald Trump’s threat to common decency, and insure that he pays the price for his treason and insurrection!

2024 Presidential Election Crucial As Were 1864 And 1964 Elections, And They Were Election Landslides!

One could argue that every Presidential Election is significant in some shape or form, but certain elections stand out as turning points in the promotion of American democracy.

Such are the Presidential Elections of 1864 and 1964, and now moving forward, 2024!

In all three, the sustaining of American democracy was crucial, and in the first two cases, the results, after much concern, were massive landslides, hopefully setting the scene for 2024!

In 1864, Republican Abraham Lincoln was running for reelection in the midst of the American Civil War, with his opponent being General George McClellan, who was resentful of his firing for poor performance from Union Army leadership, and represented to many the Confederate hope of pulling out victory late in the Civil War.

Lincoln was so concerned that victory was unattainable, that he decided to replace Vice President Hannibal Hamlin with a Southern Loyalist Democrat Andrew Johnson, and the Republicans invited War Democrats into the party by changing their name to the National Union Party.

The end result was a landslide with Lincoln winning all but three states, winning 55 percent of the vote, and an Electoral College majority of 212-21!

A century later, President Lyndon B. Johnson, having succeeded to the Presidency after the assassination of John F. Kennedy less than a year earlier, faced the most right wing Republican contender for the Presidency in modern times, Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater, who advocated ending the New Deal of Franklin D. Roosevelt, including Social Security, and also opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Johnson went on to a landslide victory, winning 61.1 percent of the popular vote, the all time high, and 44 of 50 states and 486-52 in the Electoral College, but with five Southern states going to Goldwater, the beginning of the political realignment that has made the South solidly Republican ever since, with only a few exceptions when Democrats nominated Southerners for the Presidency, including Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.

Johnson went on to promote the Great Society, a massive increase in government programs, way beyond the New Deal of FDR.

Now in 2024, with the Republican Party being the most extreme right wing since Goldwater, and arguably more so, Joe Biden faces a challenge not only on a personal level, but also on overcoming the menace of Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans, who have repudiated the original basis of the Republican Party’s founding, opposing slavery and its expansion, and instead promoting racism and nativism 170 years after the origins of the party in Michigan and Wisconsin in 1854!

Another Indictment (Number 4) Of Donald Trump Is Coming Soon!

It is highly likely that this next week to ten days will see the FOURTH indictment of Donald Trump, this time in Georgia for his phone call to the Secretary of State of that state, pressuring him to find 11,780 votes, one more than the margin of victory of Joe Biden in the Presidential Election of 2020.

There is no doubt of the veracity of that phone call, which was recorded, and it demonstrates how brazen Trump was in his corrupt effort to deny Georgia the candidate they supported for the Presidency, Joe Biden, to win that state in the Electoral College.

It seems likely, also, that many others involved in this corrupt conspiracy will be indicted, such individuals as former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, and many others, insuring an even more complicated trial calendar for the former President as the Presidential primaries and caucuses come upon us in early 2024.

It sounds as if at least a dozen new charges will be added to the 78 charges already on Trump’s back from three other legal cases, one in New York, and two on the federal level.

It is time for Democratic Secretaries of State to move forward toward disqualifying Trump from state ballots, due to his violation of the 14th Amendment, Section 3, which prevents anyone engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the United States, to be able to hold public office.

Even if just a few large electoral vote states do such action–say, New York, California, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania—there would be no way for Donald Trump to be able to gain enough electoral votes to win the Electoral College!

So time for movement forward, and the sooner the better, so that some other Republican nominee can have the opportunity to run for President, and save the party from a total wipeout in the Presidential Election of 2024!

Factors Favoring Democrats In 2024 Presidential Election

The Democratic Party has several advantages going into the Presidential Election campaign of 2024.

Among them are:

Women in large percentages are outraged by the Supreme Court ending legal abortion protections on the federal level, and the actions by Republican state legislatures to prevent abortion rights further should favor Democrats in 2024, state and national levels.

African Americans are likely to continue to support Democrats with the new attack on “Diversity, Equity and Inclusion”, including the words and actions of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but also the broad attack on civil rights by Republicans at all levels.

Young people, particularly those of Generation Z, born from 1997 onward, are strongly moving toward the Democrats.

College educated people are becoming more strongly Democratic across the nation.

Gays, lesbians, and transgender Americans clearly see the Republican attack on their basic civil rights as a dire threat.

Suburban voters have become more Democratic in recent elections, and are likely to continue in that vein.

Religion has declined rapidly, which also helps promote Democrats.

Supreme Court decisions have been highly unpopular, and helped to shift many voters toward Democrats.

The continuing danger of Donald Trump has motivated many voters to turn to the Democrats.

Joe Biden’s two and a half year record, arguably the best in domestic affairs since Lyndon B. Johnson, boosts his candidacy, including the economy which has been better under Biden than any earlier President at this point, and with the one problem, inflation, rapidly declining, but with unemployment at a more than 50 year low.

The biggest problem is the uncertainty of the Hispanic-Latino vote, particularly among Cuban Americans, and those from Nicaragua, and Venezuela heritage, but even among Mexican Americans who have become more skeptical about Democrats.

Also, elderly Americans are less Democratic than they have traditionally been, and the Trump support is about one third of the electorate.

The less educated whites are declining rapidly, but are still strong supporters of Republicans, because of racist tendencies.

So the election will be highly contestable, and some experts say the election will come down to four states—Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Wisconsin!

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Gains Minnesota Support, Now At 205 Electoral Votes!

The movement to change the Presidential Election process from the Electoral College system that has allowed five Presidential elections to be won by the national popular vote loser, has made more progress in the past few days, with Minnesota becoming the 16th state plus the District of Columbia to agree to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact!

Five Presidential Elections have seen the “vote of the people” denied with the popular vote loser becoming President as follows:

1824 Andrew Jackson loses to John Quincy Adams despite 38,000 vote lead
1876 Samuel Tilden loses to Rutherford B. Hayes despite 252,000 vote lead
1888 Grover Cleveland loses to Benjamin Harrison despite 90,000 vote lead
2000 Al Gore loses to George W. Bush despite 540,000 vote lead
2016 Hillary Clinton loses to Donald Trump despite 2.86 million vote lead

The total number of electoral votes needed to win the Presidency is 270, with the 16 states and DC adding up to a total of 205 electoral votes.

The problem is in a divided America all of the states and DC that have agreed to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact are “blue” states.

In order of their adoption by the state legislatures and signing by the governors are the following states: (starting in April 2007 until May 2023)

Maryland
New Jersey
Illinois
Hawaii
Washington
Massachusetts
District of Columbia
Vermont
California
Rhode Island
New York
Connecticut
Colorado
Delaware
New Mexico
Oregon
Minnesota

Two states–Maine and Nevada–passed the compact, but in Maine, a followup required vote failed and in Nevada the Republican governor vetoed the legislation. But in the past two weeks, Nevada passed the legislation again, and it seems almost ready to add its six electoral votes to the total, making it, when it happens, 211 electoral votes.

Six other states saw one of the houses of the state legislature pass the bill–Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Michigan (15), North Carolina (16), Oklahoma (7), and Virginia (13). If these six states were to pass such a bill in the future, it would mean 68 more electoral votes, which with the present 205, would add up to 273, three more than needed, and if Nevada joined the list, it would be 279!

But even if more states were to join this compact, it is likely that there would be a constitutional challenge if, in a future Presidential election, this compact came into reality, and it could cause a major division in the nation.

Two Year Anniversary Of Joe Biden Presidency: Should He Run For Second Term?

Today at 12 Noon marks the two year anniversary of the Joe Biden Presidency!

Considering the difficult political circumstances, of an evenly divided Senate for only the fourth time in American history, and a five seat margin in the House of Representatives, Joe Biden accomplished a great deal in his first two years in office.

From a progressive view, he was the most successful in his first two years domestically than any President since Lyndon B. Johnson in the 1960s with his “Great Society” legislation, which was far greater, but with a massive margin of his party in control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Biden accomplished more than Democrats in the Presidency after Johnson, including Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and even Barack Obama, after their first two years in the Oval Office!

Foreign policy has been difficult, as it always is, but Biden’s strong support of Ukraine in its war with Russia, and backed by NATO, has been a very strong example of his promotion of democracy against totalitarianism, reminiscent of Franklin D. Roosevelt coming to the aid of Great Britain in 1940-1941, before America’s entrance into World War II.

Having said all the above, the question now is should Joe Biden, having reached the age of 80 precisely two months ago, run for a second term, and would he win a second term?

This author and blogger has always had great and warm feelings toward Joe Biden, going back to when he gravitated toward Biden as, in my mind, the replacement in commitment and personality traits of Hubert Humphrey, who was this author’s original political “hero”!

I wish that Biden had been able to run for President in 2016, but his son Beau’s death prevented that, as I believe he would have won the nomination, and would have defeated Donald Trump, and saved America from the nightmare four years of horrendous policies and criminal actions.

Hillary Clinton had too many barriers, including controversies surrounding her and her husband, along with simply being the first woman nominee for President. Of course, Hillary Clinton still won the national popular vote by 2.85 million, and only lost because of Russian collusion with Trump that threw the Electoral College vote to him in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Even a Republican controlled Senate committee came to that conclusion, despite the continued lying and deception that continues unabated to the present.

But the present is the issue, and this author and blogger sincerely believes that while Joe Biden would win a second term, against Donald Trump or anyone else on the horizon, that for the future of the Presidency and of Joe Biden’s own lifespan, that he should announce that he will retire.

It would make him a “lameduck President”, but freed from politics of his own ego, he could be seen as a statesman, helping to bring the future of the nation toward a Democratic Party successor, who would pursue his principles, goals, and common decency and compassion!

We need a future President who has the character traits of Joe Biden, as we do not want to promote selfishness, greed, nastiness, and lack of compassion and common decency, which too many Republicans who plan to run for President, possess as their basic character traits!

This way, Joe Biden can leave office at age 82, with head held high, having accomplished a decent record under difficult circumstances, having assisted for his own succession. And he can have peace of mind, planning his own Presidential Library and Museum, writing his own memoirs, and enjoying his wife, Dr Jill Biden, and his family in a relaxed, well deserved retirement, which is likely to lead to a longer life, than having the stress of another four years in office!

He should not join the list of Presidents who either died in office or had very short retirements, such individuals as Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, and Lyndon B. Johnson!

So, President Biden, do what is best for you and for the nation you have served so well, and announce your decision to leave office two years from today, having insured the succession of a Democratic President who will carry on with your commitment to decency, fairness, and compassion!

Two New Inaugurated Democratic Governors Give Us Hope For Future!

This week saw the inaugurations of two new young Democratic Governors in the Northeast-Mid Atlantic area, and both represent great hopes for the future.

In Maryland, a state which has advanced in the areas of race and gender more than most states, we saw the inauguration of an African American governor, Wes Moore, formerly head of the Robin Hood Foundation, a Rhodes Scholar, and serving in the war in Afghanistan. He is only the third African American governor in US History, and is very inspiring and charismatic at age 44.

And in Pennsylvania, we saw former state Attorney General, and newly inaugurated Governor Josh Shapiro, who is equally inspiring, and is seen by some as the first Jewish President in the future, take over leadership of a crucial state in the Electoral College past, present, and future. He is 49 years old and offers great potential in the future beyond the governorship.

So while there is so much cynicism and negativism about American politics among many Americans, there is indeed a sense of hope for the future!

Arizona And Georgia Key States Now, NOT Florida And Texas!

As a result of the Midterm Elections of 2022, after the Presidential Election of 2020, it is clear that Arizona and Georgia are the key states for the Democrats, although they do not make up for the Republican dominance of Florida and Texas!

But with Pennsylvania and Michigan also becoming more likely Democratic based on recent elections, and adding the Northeast and Pacific Coast, the Midwest states of Illinois and Minnesota, and a few Mountain states, such as Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, the prognosis for the Democrats in 2024 and beyond, is looking good, in regards to the Electoral College!

Republican And Conservative Advantage In House, Senate, Electoral College System, Despite Popular Vote Advantage For Democrats

The American political system is in bad straits, in what seems like a losing battle for popular vote to determine who runs our government.

The system has become stacked to favor Republicans and conservatives.

Republican legislatures in many states promote gerrymandering, which hurts Democrats massively, not only in the state governments, but also in setting up House of Representatives seats. An example is Florida, which used to have four Congressional seats that favored African American representation, but now has been halved to two such districts.

Fewer people regularly vote nationally for Republicans, but they have near to a majority even before the election in 2022 for the House of Representatives, and it is likely they will control the lower house of Congress despite having fewer total popular votes nationally.

Also, the US Senate has a situation in which Republican Senators, presently half the Senate, are elected by a population of about about 142 million Americans, while Democrats, presently the other half of the Senate, are elected by a population of about 184 million Americans!

So 60 percent of the nation’s population is being underrepresented, while 40 percent is overrepresented.

The idea that Wyoming has two US Senators with only about 600,000 people, while California with nearly 40 million peoples has two US Senators, is an abomination, but simply has evolved that way over time, so the US Senate is anti democracy to the extreme!

Additionally, the Electoral College favors the small, mostly Republican states, this despite the Democrats winning the national popular vote seven of the last eight Presidential elections, from 1992 through 2020, with the one exception of 2004!

So the idea of democracy is under attack, and the right wing Federalist Society has managed to “fix” the Supreme Court, with a strong 6-3 margin, with only Chief Justice John Roberts able to be considered, most of the time, as “moderate”.

So a constitutional crisis exists, with white supremacists working to insure that American democracy fails completely as we reach the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence in 2026!