The American public seems to be very skeptical of the motivations of President Barack Obama, when he declared support of gay marriage a week ago.
A new public opinion poll indicates that 67 percent of those polled think the declaration was based on politics, compared to 24 percent who think it was based on principle.
There is no question that the declaration of support for gay marriage has created a new dynamic, which could affect the fall election for President.
Not only devoutly religious Catholics and evangelical Christians are vehemently against what Obama has declared, but also the African American community is split, as many blacks who are devoutly religious join white religious voters in opposition.
Also, older voters over 50, and many Hispanics and Latinos who are religious, are also not happy over what Obama has declared.
At the same time, younger voters under 35, single women under 50, college educated voters, a majority in the larger urban states (such as California, New York and Illinois), and obviously, gay voters, are supportive.
The danger to Obama is that his opportunity to win the Southern states he won in 2008 (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida) is now more in play, at least in theory. Also believed to be in play are Indiana and Nevada and Colorado, other “swing” states that Obama won in 2008.
At the same time, Ohio and Iowa are thought to be still in Obama’s camp, due to the economic improvement in those states, along with other Midwestern states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. Pennsylvania still seems safe for Obama, while New Hampshire might be in play.
Let us assume all of the above as stated is fact. How would that affect the electoral map?
Obama starts out with what seems to be 227 electoral votes that are certain, including:
Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, California, Hawaii–18 states and DC.
If one adds Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Iowa, it adds 44 electoral votes, making for a total of 271 electoral votes, one more than needed to win the Presidency! That would mean 21 states and DC went for the President.
Now, let’s be frank! Can one really conceive that Obama will lose all of the following: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Indiana, Colorado, Nevada–a total of 87 electoral votes?
And beyond all this, remember the factor of LIKEABILITY! Romney is not well liked, and people do not feel that he is someone to trust to be out there for average Americans, that he does not and cannot understand the daily struggle of a majority of Americans who are not rich, and never will be rich!
Barack Obama has 60 percent of the nation liking him, as compared to Romney’s 31 percent.
Barack Obama is overwhelmingly favored by Hispanics and Latinos, single women, a majority of those under 35, organized labor, environmentalists, the college educated, and African Americans.
And now the Americans Elect group, which hoped to get a centrist, independent candidate on the ballot online, has come to the realization that there is no one strong or well known enough to be considered as its candidate, and the organization has folded.
So Barack Obama still has a massive edge, even with the issue of gay marriage possibly muddying the waters somewhat!