Congressional Elections Of 2024

Joe Manchin Not Running For Reelection: No Great Loss For Democrats!

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West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin has announced he will not run for reelection in 2024, as it seems clear that the heavily Republican state would be highly unlikely to reelect him, despite his basic conservative voting record.

His leaving the Senate will make it more difficult for the Democrats to keep the Senate majority, also undermined by Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona becoming an Independent, and likely meaning her Senate seat will be a very difficult seat to retain, as well as West Virginia!

Manchin was a necessary evil in the Democratic Party, a person tolerated despite his right wing orientation, and the US Senate is now a body that will ever more be in danger of ending up under the control of MAGA Republican forces. This scenario is likely, unless the Democrats, who have been successful once again in political races, are able to overcome their disadvantage with a total commitment to maximizing the struggle for American democracy in the Congressional and Presiential Elections of 2024!

One Year To Presidential Election Of 2024, And Joe Biden Looks In Bad Shape!

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With one year to the Presidential Election Of 2024, President Joe Biden looks in bad shape, based on a New York Times-Siena College poll.

According to the poll, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in five of six swing state—4 points in Pennsylvania; 5 points in Michigan and Arizona; 6 points in Georgia; 10 points in Nevada; and with Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 2 points.

These statistics are stunning and worrisome, but one must realize that the history of polling shows one year out is no judgment of what will occur on Election Day.

One year ahead, there were no predictions that Harry Truman would win a full term in 1948; or that John F. Kennedy would win in 1960; or Richard Nixon would win in 1968; or Jimmy Carter (an unknown) would win in 1976; or Ronald Reagan would win in 1980; or Bill Clinton would win in 1992; or George W. Bush would win in 2000; or that Barack Obama would win in 2008; or that Donald Trump would win in 2016.

Also, one must realize that never has a President lost reelection to an opponent he had first defeated since Benjamin Harrison lost reelection to Grover Cleveland in 1892.

And with Donald Trump likely to be convicted on some of the 91 charges over four indictments in the next year, to believe that he will be able to defeat the man who defeated him, for the first time in 132 years, is to be living in an era of delusion.

Assuming that the economy will continue to do better, and with international crises a major factor, the President in office is, historically, highly likely to win reelection, particularly against someone who represents chaos, corruption, and incompetence, and as a threat to the American democratic system and to international stability!

But it is also clear that the message and the efforts to reelect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and insure a Democratic controlled House of Representatives and Senate must move full scale ahead, as there is no time for any sense of relaxation about the future of the nation and the world at large!

Republicans Who Abandoned Their Principles And Supported Mike Johnson As Speaker Of The House!

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This author and blogger wanted to give slack to 18 House Republicans whose districts voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but now realizes he was naive!

Many of these 18 House Republicans are part of the so called “Problem Solvers Caucus”, and yet, they voted unanimously for a hardline extremist right wing Speaker, Mike Johnson of Louisiana, who is more extreme than Kevin McCarthy, and similar to Jim Jordan, but with a more amenable personality, which effectively hides his extremist views!

So it is time to stop believing that there are any Republicans in the House of Representatives who can be trusted on doing what is proper and mainstream, and Democrats must work to defeat as many of these Biden district Republicans as possible in the upcoming Congressional Elections of 2024!

However, this author and blogger is particularly angry at the following:

Don Bacon of Nebraska
Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania
Tom Kean Jr of New Jersey
Mike Lawler of New York
Marc Molinaro of New York
Anthony D’Esposito of New York
Nick LaLota of New York
Brandon Williams of New York
David Valadao of California
Mike Garcia of California
Michelle Steele of California
Young Kim of California
John Duarte of California

So these New York and California Republicans, in particular, are on notice that they are in danger due to their support of a MAGA Republican for the Speakership of the House of Representatives!

Shocking Event: Speaker Kevin McCarthy Ousted By His Own Republican Colleagues!

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In a stunning and shocking development, Republican Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy has been ousted by a vote 216-210, the first time in history that a Speaker has been so removed!

There have been times when a Speaker was challenged, the most famous being Speaker Joseph Cannon in 1910, but he survived as a weakened Speaker until the next Congressional election.

Newt Gingrich in 1998 and John Boehner in 2015, when facing the possibility of an ouster, both resigned.

So this is a first, and weakens the Republican party in the House and nationally, and will reverberate in the upcoming Congressional and Presidential Election of 2024!

And a final point, Donald Trump did not comment or do anything to try to save McCarthy, who has been slavishly loyal to him after first condemning him for the January 6, 2021 US Capitol Insurrection.

Is anyone surprised? And McCarthy and the Republicans MUST USE this event to separate themselves from Donald Trump, or face final oblivion as a party under the name “Republican”!

To Kevin McCarthy And MAGA Republicans: NO Cut In Aid To Ukraine! :(

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As I write this, it seems as if we are on the road to a costly and unnecessary government shutdown on Sunday, provoked by extremist right wing MAGA Republicans, and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy unwilling to resist them, and instead to make a deal with Democrats and mainstream Republicans in the House of Representatives.

McCarthy and the MAGA Republicans now want a cut in aid to Ukraine, but some House Republicans and many Senate Republicans agree with Joe Biden and the Democrats that it is essential to continue to provide aid to that nation in its struggle against Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation.

The MAGA Republicans, Kevin McCarthy, and former President Donald Trump are promoting a dangerous isolationist attitude on world affairs, much like occurred in the 1920s and 1930s.

Practing appeasement to a dictator, as with Hitler in the 1930s, and Putin now, does not lead to peace, as it emboldens such evil people, and just as World War II was the result eight decades ago, so would be the result if Ukraine is conquered, as Putin will move on to NATO nations, including Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, if the US and NATO stop assisting the valiant battle of Ukraine.

So the answer to MAGA Republicans, Kevin McCarthy, and Donald Trump is NO CUT in aid to Ukraine, and the Republicans will suffer at the ballot box in November 2024!

It is tragic that there will be so much harm visited on vulnerable Americans, but in the end, Joe Biden, his party, and reasonable Senate and House Republicans must stand strong and refuse to give in!

Time For Bipartisanship To Keep Federal Government Operating

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The Republican controlled House of Representatives is proving its inability to operate the federal government, and holding Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy hostage.

With only a five seat edge (222 Republican and 213 Democrats), the time has come for the small band of moderate, mainstream conservative Republicans to “cross the aisle” and work with Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and take action this week to keep the government operating, and avoid the financial crisis and the mass damage that would do.

The extremist small band group of Republicans must be neutralized, and Republican members of the bipartisan “Problem Solvers Caucus” have the opportunity to demonstrate their commitment to stability and cooperation.

Officially, the Problem Solvers Caucus consists of 63 members of the 118th Congress, including 32 Democrats and 31 Republicans.

Among the Republicans seen as most engaged in promoting cooperation are :

Don Bacon of Nebraska
Anthony D’Esposito of New York
Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania
Andrew Garbarino of New York
Dusty Johnson of South Dakota
Thomas Kean Jr of New Jersey
Young Kim of California
Nick Lalota of New York
Mike Lawler of New York
Nancy Mace of South Carolina
Marc Molinaro of New York
David Valadao of California

If 6-10 of these or other Republicans work with the 213 Democrats, the government will avoid shutdown, and the mood is developing to have such cooperation, so let’s hope such a situation transpires.

Kevin McCarthy, as horrible as he is, would be likely to stay on as Speaker, but the Republican control of the House of Representatives, as fragile as it is, is likely to evaporate in 2024.

The New York members of the Republican group, including those mentioned above, are representing Biden won districts, and they are working to survive and keep their seats, which will be a tall order. The present Congress includes 18 Republicans who won districts Biden won in 2020, so a major challenge for those Republicans.

Impeachment Move Against Joe Biden Has No Basis, Just Political Posturing!

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The impeachment move of the Republican House of Representatives and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy toward President Joe Biden has no basis, and is just political posturing.

There is no “there, there”, and McCarthy knows it, but he is captive to his extreme right wing Freedom Caucus members who may yet dump him as Speaker in a roll call vote!

This is just revenge for Donald Trump having been impeached twice by the Democratic controlled House of Representatives in 2019 and 2021.

The Republican Party in the House has only a 5 seat edge, and it seems highly likely that the Democrats will win back control in 2024, and by much more than a few seats!

The Way To A Democratic House Of Representatives Majority In The 119th Congress!

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With the Democratic Party only needing to gain a minimum of five seats in the House of Representatives in the Congressional Elections of 2024, some key points to make.

California, Florida and New York, three of the four largest Congressional delegations due to their large populations, have Republican members who won in 2022, but represent districts won by Joe Biden in 2020.

Partisan gerrymandering in both New York and Florida also were the key to Republicans winning a small majority of five seats, which has upended so much in the 118th Congress.

Now, with the Supreme Court backing a challenge to an Alabama reapportionment that denied African Americans fair representation, there is also a good chance of gaining a seat in that state, plus the possibility of the same gains in Texas, Florida, and a few other states that have undermined black or Latino representation based on their proportion of state populations.

With the 118th Congress unable to accomplish much under Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the odds are growing that the Democrats will win back control of the House, and by more than just a bare margin.

A major Joe Biden victory against Donald Trump and other MAGA Republicans could produce a second term of major movement forward, both in Congress and the White House!

Debt Limit Bill Passes House Of Representatives 314-117!

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The US House of Representatives has passed the Debt Limit legislation to avoid default, by a vote of 314-117, with one third of the Republican majority voting against, and about one fourth of the Democratic minority voting against.

149 Republicans and 165 Democrats voted for the legislation, and 71 Republicans and 46 Democrats voted against the legislation.

So fundamentally, the centrists in both parties did what had to be done, while many members of the Republican House Freedom Caucus and of the Democratic House Progressive Caucus registered their opposition to the legislation.

Overall, it is a good piece of legislation, and saves the nation from dealing with this matter until after the next Presidential and Congressional elections in 2024.

Now the legislation goes to the Senate, where it could be held up by reckless members of the Republican Party, who love to gain attention by being outrageous!

Debt Limit Deal A Compromise, But Mostly A Biden Win!

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It seems that the crisis over the raising the federal debt ceiling will be resolved by a compromise, which means no one gets everything they want.

However, it also seems that the Democrats and President Joe Biden will come out better than the Republicans and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy.

The Freedom Caucus in the Republican Party in the House of Representatives and the Progressive Caucus in the Democratic Party are not happy, but the passage of the deal seems to be likely, although some Republicans in the Senate, such as Mike Lee of Utah, may try to hold up the deal.

But the Democrats are making fewer concessions compared to the Republicans, and Kevin McCarthy may face a no confidence vote from the Republican caucus, although he would seem to be likely to survive, although maybe in a weakened state.

The best part of the proposed deal is to push the debt limit issue off for two years, until after the next Presidential and Congressional Elections in 2024!