Presidential Election Of 1864

2024 Presidential Election Crucial As Were 1864 And 1964 Elections, And They Were Election Landslides!

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One could argue that every Presidential Election is significant in some shape or form, but certain elections stand out as turning points in the promotion of American democracy.

Such are the Presidential Elections of 1864 and 1964, and now moving forward, 2024!

In all three, the sustaining of American democracy was crucial, and in the first two cases, the results, after much concern, were massive landslides, hopefully setting the scene for 2024!

In 1864, Republican Abraham Lincoln was running for reelection in the midst of the American Civil War, with his opponent being General George McClellan, who was resentful of his firing for poor performance from Union Army leadership, and represented to many the Confederate hope of pulling out victory late in the Civil War.

Lincoln was so concerned that victory was unattainable, that he decided to replace Vice President Hannibal Hamlin with a Southern Loyalist Democrat Andrew Johnson, and the Republicans invited War Democrats into the party by changing their name to the National Union Party.

The end result was a landslide with Lincoln winning all but three states, winning 55 percent of the vote, and an Electoral College majority of 212-21!

A century later, President Lyndon B. Johnson, having succeeded to the Presidency after the assassination of John F. Kennedy less than a year earlier, faced the most right wing Republican contender for the Presidency in modern times, Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater, who advocated ending the New Deal of Franklin D. Roosevelt, including Social Security, and also opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Johnson went on to a landslide victory, winning 61.1 percent of the popular vote, the all time high, and 44 of 50 states and 486-52 in the Electoral College, but with five Southern states going to Goldwater, the beginning of the political realignment that has made the South solidly Republican ever since, with only a few exceptions when Democrats nominated Southerners for the Presidency, including Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.

Johnson went on to promote the Great Society, a massive increase in government programs, way beyond the New Deal of FDR.

Now in 2024, with the Republican Party being the most extreme right wing since Goldwater, and arguably more so, Joe Biden faces a challenge not only on a personal level, but also on overcoming the menace of Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans, who have repudiated the original basis of the Republican Party’s founding, opposing slavery and its expansion, and instead promoting racism and nativism 170 years after the origins of the party in Michigan and Wisconsin in 1854!

Concept Of Political Coalition Against Donald Trump: Does History Tell Us It Could Work In America?

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Thomas Friedman, esteemed columnist for the NEW YORK TIMES, suggested in a recent column that the concept of a political coalition against Donald Trump might be the way to prevent him from coming back to power in the Presidential Election of 2024.

So Friedman suggests the following possible coalition tickets of a Democrat and an anti Trump Republican:

Joe Biden–Liz Cheney

Joe Biden–Lisa Murkowski

Kamala Harris–Mitt Romney

Stacy Abrams–Liz Cheney

Any Klobuchar–Liz Cheney

Friedman makes the comparison to the present coalition government in Israel, but Israel has a Prime Minister and a parliamentary system, which is totally different than our Presidential-Congress system of separation of powers.

And if one looks at past past attempts to have a Vice President who is not part of the majority party at the time, just look at John Tyler, not a Whig, under William Henry Harrison, who then had horrible time and constant turmoil after Harrison died after one month in office in 1841.

Or even better, Andrew Johnson, NOT a Republican, running with Abraham Linoln in 1864, and succeeding him after six weeks, and the horrible relationship and disaster of Johnson as President, facing impeachment and constant vitriol, much of it incited by his own prickly personality.

There was talk in 1968, of Hubert Humphrey selecting Nelson Rockefeller; of 2004, of John Kerry selecting John McCain; of 2008, of John McCain selecting Joe Lieberman. None of those would ever have been able to work out, and elect Humphrey, Kerry, or McCain.

Also, in the run up to 2020, some thought of a John Kasich-John Hickenlooper unity ticket, as an alternative to Donald Trump, and it never got off the ground!

And really, Liz Cheney, with strong right wing views on every topic except the danger of Donald Trump, paring with Biden? That is NOT serious, and Stacy Abrams or Amy Klobuchar paring with Cheney, so two women on the ticket, really?

And Mitt Romney running with Harris, really, with his strong criticism of Biden policies, and unwillingness to even back voting rights legislation?

The only one of these pairings that sounds at all logical, but really is not so, is Biden with Lisa Murkowski, the most acceptable Republican in national office, but how would Biden convince Harris why he has to “dump” her as Vice President?

Donald Trump Botched His Last Attempt To Show Concern For The American People, In His Atrocious Reaction To Covid-19 Pandemic!

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Donald Trump, the extreme narcissist, and mentally very unstable, and more dangerous every day for the nation, botched his last attempt to show concern and empathy for the American people, by his atrocious reaction to the CoronaVirus Pandemic!

Any chance he had to redeem himself to the American people and his historic reputation is lost, as he has refused to promote contact tracing or testing, and is very willing to accept mass loss of life without any guilt or conscience!

All that matters to Donald Trump is to be reelected, with the thought that if somehow, through foreign collusion, voter suppression, or gerrymandering combination, he is reelected, the nightmare we are living through will become much worse!

This is not just about massive loss of life, but also the abuse of power by a reenergized President who will go further in destroying the Constitution and Bill of Rights, setting up a Fascist dictatorship that his Republican Party will abide by. This will be instead of promoting the principles enunciated by Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and other historic Republicans of principle and common decency over the 166 years of the party’s history!

Once we lose our basic civil liberties and civil rights, how can we ever regain them? How can we protect the vulnerable among us, including the disabled, the elderly, the young, and racial and ethnic minorities, which will suffer more than the general population?

That is why, as stated in my History News Network article of April 29, the Election of 2020 is the most significant one since 1940, in that our whole way of life is in danger, as it was in the four previous elections discussed in the article—1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940!

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

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With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!


Six And A Half Months To Most Crucial Presidential Election Since 1940

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We are facing this November the fifth most crucial Presidential election in American history.

Every Presidential election matters, of course, and in the midst of each campaign, there are those who will think it is the most important event ever to occur.

But in reality, the number of times that an election has been truly “crucial” is limited to what this author and blogger believes are only a few times.

Those few elections that have been crucial to the extreme would include, chronologically the following:

Election of 1860, a four way race, with the Civil War seen as on the horizon, and Abraham Lincoln winning with only 39.8 percent of the vote, over Stephen Douglas, John C. Breckinridge, and John Bell.

Election of 1864, in which Lincoln defeated former General George McClellan, at a crucial time in the Civil War.

Election of 1932, in which the nation was at its lowest economic point in history, with the failure of Herbert Hoover, and the alternative of Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal.

Election of 1940, when America faced the danger of Fascism in the world, but isolationism reigned, and Franklin D. Roosevelt faced a businessman with no government experience, Wendell Willkie, as the world was engaged in World War II.

Now, in 2020, we face a CoronaVirus Pandemic; a collapsed economy worse than any time since the Great Depression; and a crazed, dangerous President who should have been removed from office for abuse of power, and instead is, effectively, taking the nation over the brink of the cliff that it is facing at this time!

So just as Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt came to the rescue, each of them twice, now Joe Biden and his female running mate face the challenge of the greatest crisis in 80 years, and we have to hope he can gather the strength, courage, and decisiveness of Lincoln, FDR, and other great Presidents, including Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama in difficult moments in their Presidencies!

March 4 Presidential Inauguration History Significant So Many Times In American History

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Today is the original Presidential Inauguration Day through 1933 every fourth year.

Some March 4ths stand out.

1801–Thomas Jefferson is inaugurated, the first time an opposition party takes over the Presidency, and without any bloodshed or violence.

1829–Andrew Jackson is inaugurated, and a mob descends on the White House to celebrate, and windows, glasses, and China are broken.

1841–William Henry Harrison is inaugurated, gives the longest inaugural address in history, and takes sick with pneumonia that evening, and dies after one month in office.

1861–Abraham Lincoln is inaugurated at a time when Southern states have broken away from the Union and declared their independence.

1865–Abraham Lincoln is inaugurated for his second term, and gives the greatest Inaugural Address in American history, calling for peace and reconciliation when the Civil War ends, and his future assassin, John Wilkes Booth is in the crowd and moving toward the inaugural stand as Lincoln speaks.

1913–Woodrow Wilson is inaugurated as the Democrats, after a half century of Republican dominance of national government.

1933–Franklin D. Roosevelt is inaugurated at the worst moments of the Great Depression, and FDR talks of a New Deal for the American people, the second greatest Inaugural Address, and the Congress pushes through the 20th Amendment, setting up future inauguration dates to be on January 20, starting in 1937.

Absolutely No Excuse Or Justification For Any Delay In Presidential, Congressional, Or State Elections: The History Of 1812, 1864, 1916, 1940, 1944, 1962!

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It has been bandied about that there might be a delay or cancellation of the Presidential Election of 2020, or of Congressional or state elections in 2018 and or 2020 in case of a national emergency of some type, such as another September 11 attack.

This is coming from the extreme Right Wing forces, many who spread the falsity that Barack Obama might cancel the Presidential Election of 2016 and stay on in office.

Let everyone know there is absolutely no excuse or justification for ANY delay in ANY elections, other than if there were to be an attack right at the time of the elections, as occurred in New York City on Primary Day on September 11, 2001, forcing a delay of a couple of weeks due to the immediacy of the situation.

We had national and state elections in 1812 during the War of 1812.

We had national and state elections in 1864, in the height of the Civil War.

We had national and state elections in 1916, as the nation was moving toward possible war engagement in the First World War.

We had national and state elections in 1940, as World War II hovered, and in 1944, after D Day that June.

We had elections in 1962, only days after the Cuban Missile Crisis in October.

We will not accept any possibility of our election process being any more corrupted, than it has been by Russian collusion in the 2016 Presidential election, and we will hold the 45th President accountable for his actions against our democratic system of government, by removing him from office!

Donald Trump Declares War On Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, And Sean Hannity Calls On McConnell To Resign

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Donald Trump has declared war on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky on Twitter and in person, an unprecedented action for a President to break with the leader of his party in the US Senate. And his lackey, talk show host Sean Hannity of Fox News Channel, has called on McConnell to resign.

Trump is angry that McConnell was unable to “repeal and replace” ObamaCare, and has called upon him to resign or be replaced as leader of Republicans in the Senate, if he cannot get that accomplished, along with other priorities of Trump, including tax reform, and infrastructure spending, and getting the Mexico Wall built.

This is ironic, as Mitch McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, is Trump’s Secretary of Transportation, so one has to wonder how she feels about this attack on her husband by her boss.

It is clear that McConnell, for all his faults, and the strong dislike of progressives and Democrats for him, is still well respected, and fully supported by his Republican Senate colleagues. So this will not make Trump’s relations with the Senate Republicans improve, but rather will worsen them dramatically.

And this comes after Trump’s earlier criticisms of Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, who has been attacked by Trump, and even more viciously by the Alt Right faction led by Stephen Bannon, and his former home, Breitbart News.

Donald Trump seems to be moving toward severing his bonds with the party that elected him, and to declare himself an independent, unprecedented in American history, and if that happens, he will be a man without a party, who is attempting to grab more executive authority.

Two earlier Presidents, who had been Vice President and succeeded upon the death of the Presidents (William Henry Harrison and Abraham Lincoln) they served under, John Tyler and Andrew Johnson, also were Presidents without a party, when they alienated the Whig Party and Republican Party, respectively, by their policies, and Tyler faced impeachment, which was unsuccessful, while Johnson was impeached, and then found not guilty by the Senate by a margin of one vote. They had both been Democrats who agreed to run on a Fusion ticket in 1840 and 1864, and this blogger wrote about this on the History News Network on July 30, 2017, and can be found on the list of my published articles on the right side of the blog.

Trump has the makings of a Fascist dictator, and this will spur the move by Republicans to go after him, and impeach and remove him, as he is a menace to the party and to the nation.

Is Donald Trump The Third President Without A Party, As Was The Case With John Tyler And Andrew Johnson?

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We have had two Presidents who lacked support of a party, and we may now have a third one in Donald Trump.

Two Presidents were elected Vice President as part of a “fusion” team to help elect the Presidential nominee, and then quickly became President upon the death of the President.

John Tyler, a Democrat, ran on the Whig Party line with William Henry Harrison in 1840, and Harrison died of pneumonia 31 days after the inauguration.

Tyler disagreed with the Whig Party principles, and came into conflict with Whig leadership, including Senator Henry Clay of Kentucky and Congressman John Quincy Adams of Massachusetts.

His entire cabinet resigned after a few months, with the exception of Secretary of State Daniel Webster, and Tyler had great troubles with confirmation hearings, with four cabinet appointments and four nominees for the Supreme Court rejected by the Whig controlled Senate. The Congress refused to pass funding for fixing of the White House, which was in disrepair, and an attempted impeachment was prevented only by the Whigs losing the House of Representatives in 1842.

So John Tyler was a man without a party.

The same can be said of Andrew Johnson, a Democrat, who was the Vice Presidential nominee with Republican Abraham Lincoln in 1864, with Lincoln concerned about reelection, so choosing a loyal Southern Democrat to shore up support among some Northern Democrats.

When Lincoln was assassinated 45 days after his second inauguration, Johnson became President but clashed quickly with Radical Republicans over Reconstruction policy, and when he vetoed significant legislation, and went out and campaigned against them in midterm congressional elections in 1866, an open split was clear, and Congress passed the Tenure of Office Act, which prevented the dismissal of any cabinet officer appointed by the President, without majority backing by the majority of both houses of Congress, an unconstitutional action.

Johnson now faced impeachment on flimsy charges, and was found not guilty, but it weakened his ability to govern, and he was unable to gain the filling of a Supreme Court vacancy, and was truly a President without a party.

Now, Donald Trump has alienated many Republicans, who are willing to investigate his Russian ties and possible collusion in the Presidential Election of 2016. He has denounced the Freedom Caucus membership which prevented his health care legislation from passing, and many US Senators, including John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Ben Sasse, and others, have been strong critics. Additionally, he has hinted at working with Democrats, even though he has also antagonized them repeatedly with his utterances and policies. His public opinion rating is the lowest for any new President, since the beginning of polling 80 years ago.

The possibility of impeachment is there, as even top Republican leadership, including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, have found it difficult to work with a President who is constantly tweeting and criticizing, in a very divisive way.

So Donald Trump could end up being the third President without a party, recalling that for a long time, he was sounding years ago like a liberal Democrat!

Congressional Republicans Growing Unease About Donald Trump

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Less than two weeks in office, Donald Trump is starting to see growing unease among some Congressional Republicans about his independent, go it alone, style of leadership.

Trump clearly feels he was elected without true party unity, and intends to govern in an authoritarian manner, but there are Republicans who are unhappy with his style and manner.

These include:

Arizona Senator John McCain
Arizona Senator Jeff Flake
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham
Ohio Senator Rob Portman
Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse
Maine Senator Susan Collins

Also, some Congressmen are also speaking out, so Trump may be a President without a party, and to find that, one must go back to the 19th century, where two Presidents, who succeeded a President who died, had massive headaches trying to deal with the party that had accepted them, members of the opposition party, as their Vice President, due to the wishes of the Presidential nominee, but with no expectation that the President wold die in office.

I am referring to Democrat John Tyler, who ran on the Whig Party ticket with William Henry Harrison in 1840; and Democrat Andrew Johnson, who ran on the Republican “Union” Party line with Abraham Lincoln in 1864.

Both Tyler and Johnson would have never ending headaches with their adopted party, with major battles over Supreme Court and Cabinet appointments, and a threat to impeach John Tyler, and an actual impeachment trial for Andrew Johnson.

Could Donald Trump be on the way to similar resistance and possible impeachment? He is alienating Congress by being a “lone wolf”, showing his disdain for Congress and the party line he ran on.

One must recall that his victory for President was the worst ever in popular vote loss to his opponent, and seventh lowest percentage ever, but with all those Presidents with lower percentage of vote, having had two or three opponents who gained electoral votes, instead of just one opponent.