With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.
This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.
Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.
If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.
With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!
So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:
Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:
All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes
Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes
Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes
Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes
Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes
So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.
Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46
That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.
However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:
Senior Citizens
Suburban Women
College Educated
Lower and Middle Income Voters
Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)
Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants
Young People Under 35
Independents
Moderate Republicans
Conservative Intellectuals
Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!
So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?
In order as follows:
Arizona–11 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Georgia–16 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Montana–3 electoral votes
Kansas–6 electoral votes
Texas–38 electoral votes
So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.
The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:
West Virginia 5
Kentucky 8
South Carolina 9
Alabama 9
Mississippi 6
Louisiana 8
Arkansas 6
Tennessee 11
Missouri 10
Indiana 11
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3
Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)
Oklahoma 7
Utah 6
Wyoming 3
Idaho 4
Alaska 3
But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!
Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!
So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.
If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!
And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!
The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!
Joe Biden announces vetting team for vice presidential pick.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941534/-Joe-Biden-announce-vetting-team-for-vice-presidential-pick
Trump is threatening to sue his campaign manager because he’s losing in the polls.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/trump-brad-parscale-campaign-manager
So Doc: Given Your six-month and three day out projected landslide victory for Biden primarily because of the COVID-19 Event GoatRope, do You think there is any truth to Trump’s assertion this whole thing is a plot by China to assure that he doesn’t get re-elected?
Of course and on the other hand, that raises the possibility that perhaps the latest allegations of sexual harassment against Unca Joe point to a plot by Russia to see that Trump does get re-elected, doesn’t it?
And ~ again, yet, and still ~ this all rests on the assumption that Election 2020 will take place as scheduled, doesn’t it?
In six months, we may very well be starting to see the hyperinflationary fallout from the $7-10 Trillion credit and cash expansion by Congress and The Fed to deal with The Second Great Depression. Wouldn’t that be a great time for another 9/11? A real one with real American casualties; not like the one the White House and CDC were warning we were facing several weeks ago.
If those who benefitted most from the first 9/11 determine to have another iteration because they will gain even more from a second one, Who and/or What is going to stop them?
Biden Campaign Fundraising Email Reminds Donors Sexual Assault Allegations Don’t Bury Themselves
WASHINGTON—Urging supporters to help out and chip in as much as they can, the Joe Biden presidential campaign sent a fundraising email Thursday reminding donors that sexual assault allegations don’t bury themselves. “Now, more than ever, the Biden campaign needs your support in sweeping this under the rug,†read the email in part, calling on each and every Biden supporter to do their part in defeating Donald Trump by looking the other way. “We’ll be honest—this isn’t going to be cheap. It’s not just going away like we thought it would. We know it seems like we can coast off the media suppressing the story, but there’s a lot of important work to be done behind the scenes to ensure these accusations never see the light of day. These sexual assault allegations have already broken through to The Washington Post, and if we don’t meet our fundraising goal by midnight tonight, it could be front page news tomorrow. †The email added that if supporters donated $25 or more, the campaign would express their thanks by sending them a free “Allegations? What Allegations?†bumper sticker.
https://www.theonion.com/biden-campaign-fundraising-email-reminds-donors-sexual-1843181076?utm_source=TheOnion_Daily_RSS&utm_medium=email
Jeffrey, the ONION is satire, humor!
Shaking my head!
I thought you were intelligent, my God! 🙁
I will say that if Trump provokes a war right before the election, with, let’s say, Iran or North Korea, who can say what would happen, as many Americans wave the flag emotionally, while not upholding the values of the flag!
The election will take place, for certain, almost as if you are praying that it does not, but it will!
The key tell in my view is the timing. I can accept that a woman would wait a long time, even 25 years, to come forward. The delay by itself is not disqualifying But she could have come forward after a 25 year delay a year ago, when Biden’s fitness to be the Democratic nominee was a live issue. Instead the allegations are coming out precisely now – after Biden’s opponents have all conceded, when the primaries are essentially over, and when polls are showing a solid, steady lead over Trump. This doesn’t by itself disqualify the allegations, but it gives much more weight to the alternative hypothesis: it’s a well coordinated ratf—ing operation.
Rustbelt Democrat, personally, I do not understand this discussion about a “finger”, sounds crazy, as men who cheat or exploit don’t think of a finger, but rather their sex organ! Give me a break!
Gee, Doc: i thought that You ~ of all people ~ knew that i know what The Onion is, and that that’s why i sent that piece.
And here i thought YOU were intelligent!!! Not my, but YOUR God!!!
i don’t pray, Professor. i look at facts, examine history, analyze possibilities and probabilities, and make bets.
i’m curious RD: Did You use that same thought process to look at the sexual allegations raised against Judge Kavanaugh when he was up for a slot on the SCOTUS?
If so, what conclusion did You come up with?
Exactly, Rustbelt. I think it’s a smear campaign by Trump/Republicans/Russians.
Ms. Blasey-Ford’s story was more credible. From what I’ve heard, Ms. Reade’s story has inconsistencies. I think that Ms. Blasey-Ford was telling the truth and that Ms. Reade is lying.
The rest of us second your assessment, Rustbelt.
Jeffrey, the allegations against Kavanaugh were much more serious, not only in high school but college!
He is so holier than thou, with his religious views, but it is all hypocrisy, not unusual for religious fundamentalists!
Republicans are much more engaged in these sexual escapades, if you investigate all of the various cases, although no question there are Democrats who are a disgrace too!
Kavanaugh is a disgrace to the Court, as is Clarence Thomas!
Hate crimes against Asian Americans are rising because of Trump’s attacks on China.
https://www.vox.com/identities/2020/4/21/21221007/anti-asian-racism-coronavirus
RF: “Jeffrey, the allegations against Kavanaugh were much more serious, not only in high school but college! He is so holier than thou, with his religious views, but it is all hypocrisy, not unusual for religious fundamentalists!”
Let me get this straight. Uninvited sexual activity by a high school [even college!!! {sic}] student is a more grievous, outrageous, and unforgiveable offense than uninvited sexual activity by a US Senator? Or is that only when the high schooler/collegian is a Republican, and the Senator is a Democrat?
Talk about “hypocrisy.” Sheeesh. That might be one for The Onion, eh? Heh.
RF: “Republicans are much more engaged in these sexual escapades, if you investigate all of the various cases, although no question there are Democrats who are a disgrace too!”
Well, Thank You for at least acknowledging that, Doctor Feinman. i was wondering if You’d ever heard of BillyBobb’s dalliances with Monica in the Oval Office.
But if You’re really interested, You might want to check out Wiki’s “List of federal political sex scandals in the United States” at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_political_sex_scandals_in_the_United_States, and see just exactly how many Republicans versus Democrats have been involved in this activity.
RF: “Kavanaugh is a disgrace to the Court, as is Clarence Thomas!”
And i assume that that’s because Clarence was a sexual predator, as well, i guess. Does that make Clinton a disgrace to Presidency?
This is going to be the new normal for a while –
CDC’s draft guidance for reopening amid coronavirus includes spaced-out seating in schools, disposable menus in restaurants.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/health/coronavirus-usa-cdc-reopening-bn-wellness/index.html
Remdesivir drug shows promise — but it is far from a coronavirus cure.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/us/remdesivir-coronavirus-drug/index.html
If the poll reports that are current, and most recent, are reflective of what will play out in the general election—scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020—then the White House will flip from the Republican to the Democratic column.
This is not a prediction. Not at this time. This is going by what is being suggested in these poll reports.
I would, based on those reports, say that the 2020 Democrats appear to be in a favorable position to flip not only the presidency of the United States but also the United States Senate.
What would do it, in reality, is not only the low-approvals of Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump. That is just part of it. Trump has been consistently in the negatives since his presidency began.
For Trump to win re-election: He can get by with about 48 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote and lose there with a margin of –3. He would, in that scenario, carry 2016 tipping-point state Wisconsin, with its 270th electoral vote, and surrender Pennsylvania and Michigan. That would yield a re-election outcome of 270 to 268 electoral votes. (Those whisker-like results, I think, are more susceptible when the presidency is flipping to a political party which reached that minimum 270. That was the case with 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush and his 271 electoral votes, up from 1996 losing nominee Bob Dole and his 159. But, for a 2016 Republican pickup winning Donald Trump, he finished with an original electoral-vote score of 306.)
What would do it—to serve as the catalyst—is COVID–19. It would be COVID–19 having struck on Trump’s watch. It would be what COVID–19, as a pandemic crisis, will have done to The People—the voting electorate—in terms of their economics and other matters.
This, and the following, is to keep in mind the date of my posted comment date [April 30, 2020], how things appear, and there is another six months until Election Day.
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Since the year 2000, there has been a close alignment for U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President vs. U.S. House.
The last two Republican presidential pickup winners—2000 George W. Bush and 2016 Donald Trump—did not flip the U.S. Popular Vote; but, had they, their margins would have been +2 (I explain, later), which were very close to the margins for U.S. House.
Since 2000, the party which won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House also won for U.S. President.
The results:
ELECTION 2000
• U.S. President: R–0.51 (George W. Bush, pickup)
• U.S. House: R+0.41
ELECTION 2004
• U.S. President: R+2.46 (Bush, re-elected with an increased +2.97)
• U.S. House: R+2.64
ELECTION 2008
• U.S. President: D+7.26 (Barack Obama, pickup)
• U.S. House: D+10.60 (Ds flipped the U.S. House in 2006)
ELECTION 2012
• U.S. President: D+3.86 (Obama, re-elected with a decreased –3.40)
• U.S. House: D+1.16 (Ds lost the U.S. House in 2010)
ELECTION 2016
• U.S. President: R–2.09 (Donald Trump, pickup)
• U.S. House: R+1.08
From 2000 to 2016, the margins spreads were: 0.92, 0.18, 3.34, 2.70, and 3.17. They averaged 2.06. The worst in spread was 3.34. So, there was been a close alignment.
Latest polls, for 2020 U.S. House, have “Real Clear Politics†reporting the “Generic Congressional Ballot†preference is an average Democratic +7.4. The Ds have been up D+5 (“Politicoâ€/Morning Consult), D+8 (“Economistâ€/YouGov), and D+9 (Grinnell/Selzer). (Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html.)
Now, I don’t know how reliable such polling is, from this point, for what will play out in the general election. They did measure up in the midterm elections of 2018. (The 2018 Democrats, with having flipped the U.S. House, won with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +8.56.)
My guess is, whatever the U.S. Popular Vote margin for U.S. President…there will be, once again, a closely alignied result for U.S. House.
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This is not good, right now, for the 2020 Republican incumbent president of the United States.
Looking to the United States Senate: There are some people who are thinking the 2020 Democrats can win a pickup of the presidency but not a likewise majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate.
The history suggests otherwise.
The United States has seen, so far, ten incumbent presidents unseated with their efforts to win re-elections. Five of them occurred during the 20th century. The opposition-party challengers who unseated incumbent presidents were: 1912 Democratic challenger Woodrow Wilson unseated Republican incumbent William Howard Taft; 1932 Democratic challenger Franklin Roosevelt unseated Republican incumbent Herbert Hoover; 1976 Democratic challenger Jimmy Carter unseated Republican incumbent Gerald Ford; 1980 Republican challenger Ronald Reagan unseated Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter; and 1992 Democratic challenger Bill Clinton unseated Republican incumbent George Bush.
I mentioned, in a previous blog topic’s comment (“Economic Downturns and American Presidential Elections in Historyâ€; April 3, 2020; https://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=39032), that what all five of them had in common is that their national margin shift, from the previous election cycle, was at least +10 percentage points in their direction of the results for U.S. Popular Vote. (Lowest shift: Reagan had a national margin shift of +11.80. The rest, with Clinton +13.29, were higher.)
What should also be mentioned is this: When all five of them took office, they established same-party control of the United State Senate. Three of them—Wilson, Roosevelt, and Reagan—saw their party pickups of the presidency followed with likewise majority-control pickups of the U.S. Senate.
The 2016 Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. President, by +2.09. (It was: Donald Trump 45.93% vs. Hillary Clinton 48.02%.) It should have been a margin of Republican +2/Democratic –2. That is because, in presidential elections which flip party occupancy, the pickup winning Republican or Democrat tends to win a net gain of +1 to +1.5 (closer to +1) states with each percentage point nationally shifted in their direction.
2016 Donald Trump, working from 2012 Mitt Romney’s margin of –3.86 (it was Romney 47.15% vs. Obama 51.01%), flipped the following: Top 10 populous states Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan; No. 20 Wisconsin; No. 32 Iowa; and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (roughly one-half its statewide vote). So, Trump’s national shift, had it lived up to normal historical voting pattern, would have been between +6 to +6.5, for an estimated U.S. Popular Vote margin between +2.15 to +2.64. (Trump and Hillary Clinton shifted some base states normally aligned to each other’s party. After the two previous cycles were won by the Democrats, Republican pickup winner Trump won over the electoral map. Hillary won a compromise in the form of a setup for the Democrats’ future with key emerging states—Arizona, Georgia, and Texas—by getting them to conspicuously underperform their Republican-level margins for Trump.)
The 2020 Democrats are starting at an adjusted U.S. Popular Vote margin of –2. Their 2016 map consisted of 20 states, plus District of Columbia, and an original 232 electoral votes.
If 2020 results in a Democratic pickup of the presidency, the Ds will have won the U.S. Popular Vote by no less than +4 (the level of 2012 Obama). If the U.S. Senate also flips, the U.S. Popular Vote will be no less than D+5. (The Ds are favored to lose Alabama because it is heavily aligned to the Rs. A Democratic incumbent would have to reduce Alabama to a single-digit margin, in a Republican hold, while their party’s incumbent U.S. senator, Doug Jones, would outperform the party’s presidential nominee by about 10 points to narrowly hold that seat.)
Here is my estimate (beginning with the 2016 Ds’ map of 20 states, plus D.C., with a starting point of 232 electoral votes) followed by these pickups (* were 2016 Republican pickups):
21. * Michigan (–0.22; cumulative 248 electoral votes)
22. * Pennsylvania (–0.72; cum. 268)
23. * Wisconsin (–0.76; cum. 278—Tipping-point state)
24. * Florida (–1.19; cum. 307)
— Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (–2.23; cum. 308)
25. Arizona (–3.50; cum. 319)
26. North Carolina (–3.66; cum. 334)
Listing up to the Tar Heel State is the 2020 U.S. Senate Democrats having reached 50 seats. To win more, a new majority with having flipped the U.S. Senate, involve the following for U.S. President:
27. Georgia (–5.10; cum. 350; U.S. Popular Vote margin: +5)
28. * Iowa (–9.41; cum. 356; U.S. Popular Vote margin: +6)
— * Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (–10.28; cum. 357; U.S. Popular Vote margin: +6.50)
29. Texas (–8.98; cum. 395; U.S. Popular Vote margin: +7)
30. * Ohio (–8.07; cum. 413; U.S. Popular Vote margin: +8)
Numbers 31 and 32 may come in as listed…or deliver in opposite order:
31. Montana (–20.24; cum. 416; U.S. Popular Vote margin: +9)
32. South Carolina (–14.27; cum. 425; U.S. Popular Vote margin: +10)
I cut off at 32 states. (Going higher would include states like Kansas and Nebraska—with its statewide and 1st Congressional District—as well as Utah and Alaska, and Missouri and Indiana.) This would be in the range, established since 1992, of presidential winners having carried between 26 and 32 states. Barack Obama, with re-election in 2012, won 26 states. Bill Clinton, with his first-term election in 1992, won 32 states. The average, from those 24 years and 7 election cycles, were 29 carried states.
(Refer to map for best-case scenario for 2020 Democrats: https://www.270towin.com/maps/P4Ww1.png.)
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Looking at this from the potential of a 2020 Democratic majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate, Ds start with 47 and will likely lose Alabama. So, they begin with an adjusted 46 with the following as their estimated order of pickups if they reach a new majority:
47. Colorado
48. Maine
49. Arizona
50. North Carolina (same-party—U.S. President and U.S. Senate—carriage results since 1972)
Tipping Point:
51. Georgia (special, first, then regular—a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5 and +5.50)
53. Iowa (U.S. Popular Vote margin: +6)
Some have argued the orders of 51 to 53. But, I think one of those two states would be the tipping-point for majority.
If the numbers climb:
54. Texas (U.S. Popular Vote margin: +7)
55. Montana (U.S. Popular Vote margin: +8; Steve Bullock would run better than presumptive nominee Joe Biden with margins in Montana)
56. South Carolina (U.S. Popular Vote margin: +9)
To reach a supermajority of 60 seats, the 2020 Democrats would need pickups in (alphabetically): Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky, and Nebraska.
(Refer to map for best-case scenario for 2020 Democrats: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/2BLNZl.png .)
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I do take into account that we don’t know what will play out over the next six months. That we are not going to be feeling totally confident, right now, to predict the outcomes—as if they would be guaranteed—for Election 2020. Right now, Election 2020 appears to be generally looking better for the Ds than the Rs.
D, thanks for your fantastic analysis, much in agreement, you and myself! 🙂
Our state had an increase of 1000 cases between yesterday and today. Most our state has had in one day.
I don’t care if it’s true or not, I’m still voting for Biden, as I know he will be better than Trump.
We got some good news today. Our masks from Amazon have shipped.
Princess Leia, I am so happy for all of you that your masks will soon arrive for use!
Stay healthy and safe, all of you, and all my readers!
Ronald writes, “D, thanks for your fantastic analysis, much in agreement, you and myself!â€
You’re welcome.
Everyone else, who may also be interested, is also welcome.
I want to add the following:
“Real Clear Politics†has the average polling margin of the 2020 general-election matchup—Trump vs. Biden—as D+5.3.
If that were to turn out to be the U.S. Popular Vote margin, it would suggest a Democratic pickup of the presidency with carriage of 27 states.
The range, from the most recently listed polls, is between Tie and D+10. Since 10 points is too wide a range, I would eliminated the highest, D+10, and the lowest, Tie, for perhaps a better balance. But, it moves up to just D+5.4.
That margin also suggests carriage of 27 states.
That is close—within 2 percentage points—to the average margin I wrote about “Real Clear Politics’s†report of the “Generic Congressional Ballot,†for U.S. House, of Democratic +7.4.
That carriage of 27 states would be an electoral map going up to a 2020 Democratic pickup of Georgia and a cumulative 350 electoral votes.
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CNN has a report that Republican David Perdue, the senior U.S. senator from Georgia who was first elected in 2014 (succeeding a then-retiring Saxby Chambliss), recognizes this: “Here’s the reality: The state of Georgia is in play.†(Source: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/politics/david-perdue-georgia-senate/index.html.)
Perdue’s 2014 margin was +7.68 while Republicans, who that year flipped the U.S. Senate, had a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +6.66.
A key state county Perdue saw flip Democratic, in 2014, was Henry County (McDonough), a 2016 Democratic pickup at the presidential level for Hillary Clinton. (First time since 1980.) It carried as well for 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams.
Two Georgia counties trending Democratic are Cobb County (Marietta) and Gwinnett County (Lawrenceville). They were carried in the 2014 Republican column by Perdue. They were Democratic pickups, at the presidential level, in 2016 for Clinton. (First time for both counties since 1976.) The two counties were in the Democratic column, as pickups (following 2014), for 2018 gubernatorial nominee Abrams.
These are a trio of key counties to watch in the general election in the state Georgia. And if Election 2020 does deliver Democratic pickups of both the presidency and new majority-control of the U.S. Senate, it would actually make sense—despite those who lean toward estimating the Republican incumbent is fairly safe for re-election—for this to include unseating Perdue.
What would make that happen is the overall situation of the nation (with the catalyst COVID–19), and for what it will mean in the general election which starts with the presidency and continues down-ballot. What also would be a help, for those wanting a Democratic pickup of the presidency, and for a Democratic majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate, is the considerable blue trend that is taking shape in the Peach State. With exception of 2004, when they performed 6 points in their margins spread, since 1988 Georgia has voted 5 points or less within the margins of the likewise blue-tending state Arizona. I look at the two as Companion States.
By the way: This recognition of David Perdue, in the regular race for a six-year term, isn’t even getting into the special-election race (for the next two years) also on the schedule in Georgia. It is Republican interim U.S. senator Kelly Loeffler. (She replaced Johnny Isakson who was previously re-elected in 2016.) Loeffler is considered to be more vulnerable than Perdue.
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Bringing this back to the presidential level: I mentioned, perhaps a couple years ago, the most influential states—for determining which party wins U.S. President here in 2020—will be the Rust Belt trio of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
I am seeing some polls reporting a Democratic lead of +8 in my home state Michigan. And Pennsylvania is just about there as well.
My guess is this: I estimate Michigan will produce a margin that is either +1 or +2 points more Democratic than the margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. (During 1992 to 2012, the state averaged a Partisan Voting Index of D+5 to D+6; so it is now trending like a key bellwether state.) I mentioned that, had Donald Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote in 2016, his margin would have been a whole-number estimate of +2. His pickup of Michigan was +0.22. So, for Michigan to be polling as a 2020 Democratic pickup with a margin of +8 would suggest a U.S. Popular Vote margin of either D+6 or D+7. That would suggest not 27 but either 28 (adding Iowa with possibly Maine’s 2nd Congressional District) or 29 (adding Texas) in the total number of carried states.
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Now that May has arrived (this posted comment is on the first of the month), we really are six months from the general election. We will see how things come along leading up to November 3, 2020. But, most important in my mind is: Surviving COVID–19!
D, thanks once again, as your participation on this blog is priceless, literally! 🙂
I will be posting shortly on my projections on the US Senate races in 2020!
If Trump wins re-election, I fear that he will politicize the vaccine.
Say Professor [and D if You’re interested; or anybody else]: Should Michigan Congressman Justin Amash become the Libertarian Party nominee for President, do You think his running will: Hurt Trump and help Biden? Hurt Biden and help Trump? Make no meaningful difference in the ultimate result
Amash is a right-winger, so I expect him to hurt Trump.
Jeffrey Moebus asks, “Say Professor [and D if You’re interested; or anybody else]: Should Michigan Congressman Justin Amash become the Libertarian Party nominee for President, do You think his running will: Hurt Trump and help Biden? Hurt Biden and help Trump? Make no meaningful difference in the ultimate result’[?]â€
The answer is: “Make no meaningful difference in the ultimate result.â€
If you want to know whether Republican-turned-independent-turned-Libertarian Justin Amash could hurt one of Donald Trump or Joe Biden, he would come closer to hurting Trump.
In 2016, the combined two-party vote—that is, Republican-vs.-Democratic—was 93.95 percent.
Donald Trump, as the Republican presidential pickup winner, received 45.93 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote.
Hillary Clinton, who did not hold the presidency in the Democratic column following the two previous cycles won by Barack Obama, received 48.02 percent.
Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson, a former Republican and the 29th Governor of New Mexico, received 3.27 percent.
Green Party nominee Jill Stein, a physician from Massachusetts, received 1.06 percent.
In every state in which Johnson and Stein were on the general-election ballot, Johnson received more votes.
Given the fact that Trump won a Republican pickup of the presidency but not a likewise Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote, and that Trump’s margin vs. Clinton was –2.09, while Johnson outpaced Stein by +2.21 one can theorize—based on mathematics—that when it comes to third-party “spoilers,†it was Johnson who cost Trump.
I also looked at all the states’s results. There were ones, going on this mathematical exercise with the “spoiler†theory, in which Johnson cost Trump.
(Stein, given she received less votes than Johnson throughout the nation, did not cost Clinton. Democrats want to blame Stein for Clinton failing to hold Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—but they routinely don’t mention Johnson was also on the ballot, that he was also in the race, and they don’t mention his mathematical impact on Trump. This is meant to lead people to embrace the “spoiler†theory and continue to vote between the two major U.S. political parties.)
One such state in which Johnson cost Trump was New Hampshire. Clinton carried it by +0.36. So, Trump’s margin was –0.36. Johnson received 4.14 percent in New Hampshire. Jill Stein received 2.67 percent. So, Johnson outpaced Stein by +1.47. Had Johnson and Stein not been in the race, and based on the math, Trump would have flipped and carried New Hampshire.
This was also the “spoiler†case in Minnesota. Trump’s margin, as it carried for Clinton, was –1.51. Johnson’s margin, over Stein, was +2.58.
Add statewide Maine to the mix. Trump’s margin, as it carried for Clinton, was –2.96. Johnson’s margin, over Stein, was +3.18.
Right there—with New Hampshire, Minnesota, and statewide Maine—are three states Johnson, in this “spoiler†theory, cost Trump. They are the three states most poised to flip for Trump if he wins 2020 re-election with, as is the case with most incumbents, an increased U.S. Popular Vote margin and electoral-vote score.
All this is based on making an assumption that 100 percent of Gary Johnson’s votes would have gone to Donald Trump and 100 percent of Jill Stein’s votes would have gone to Hillary Clinton.
That assumption is made not because I believe that totally. Voting can be more complicated than some people realize. It is because, when it comes to Libertarian and Green, one can look to Libertarian as an alternative to Republican and Green as an alternative to Democratic. Ideologically, Libertarian is closer to Republican than Democratic and Green is closer to Democratic than Republican.
The last third-party candidate who carried any states and won any electoral votes was 1968 American Independent nominee George Wallace of Alabama. He was a Democrat as well. And where he carried was in states then-aligned to the Democrats: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
In 1912, former Republican U.S. president Teddy Roosevelt was the Progressive Party nominee. He carried six states which, during that period, were aligned to the Republicans: California, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Washington.
Had 2016 seen Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein win a single state each, Johnson would have carried a state normally aligned to the Republicans and Stein would have carried a state normally aligned to the Democrats. And, with both, they likely would have won a given state with a single-digit electoral vote. (Lower population. Lower costs in which to campaign.) Perhaps Johnson would have carried, say, Montana. Perhaps Stein would have carried, say, Vermont.
This is the position that a 2020 Libertarian Party nominee Justin Amash of Michigan would be in if he has any electoral impact—let alone to such extent.
The Democrats regularly complain about third-party candidates and votes. In the documentary, “41,†which is about George Bush, he was the last Republican I heard complain about a third-party candidacy as he blamed his 1992 unseating on Ross Perot. That was, of course, nonsense. A bad economy struck on the watch of Bush, despite his being gold with his handling of the Gulf War, and that set him up for becoming unseated. (Let’s keep in mind that Bush won the third consecutive cycle for the Republicans in 1988. He was trying to get his party to win a fourth in 1992. Since the 1950s, only once did a party win three consecutive cycles—and, following 1980 and 1984 Ronald Reagan, it was 1988 Bush.) So, the 41st U.S. president would have become unseated, in 1992, even if Perot had not run. (Perot came in second in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District and Utah. Both were in the 1988 column for Bush. Maine—statewide and its 1st and 2nd districts—flipped Democratic for Bill Clinton. Utah—which for some time was the Republicans’s best state—retained Republican for Bush.)
The third-party “spoiler†is more a concern in an election in which the political party, to whom that third-party candidate is closer, has the White House. More often that not, it is an election in which the incumbent party will lose the White House. This was applicable to the 1912 Republicans, the 1968 Democrats, and the 1992 Republicans. Blaming Ralph Nader, in 2000, also fits the mold with that year’s Democrats. An exception was in 1948. The candidacy of States’ Rights nominee Strom Thurmond, then a Democrat, and who carried his then Democratic-aligned home state South Carolina—as well as Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi—did not stop Democratic incumbent Harry Truman from prevailing.
I suspect the Election 2020 two-party vote—R v.s. D—will move back up to the usual combined range of 97 to 99 percent. That would leave a buffer of 1 to 3 percent combined for candidates outside the two major U.S. political parties. If it turns out to be 97 percent, then Justin Amash may be able to get 1 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote. But, I doubt he would get even that much.
If Election 2020 turns out to be a wave election, against the Republicans and for the Democrats, that will flip U.S. President Democratic.
If the national margin is sufficient, and the history suggests it (because of the unseating of an incumbent president), the U.S. Senate would also flip Democratic. And the U.S. House would retain Democratic. (Net gains or losses in seats would be determined by the 2018-to-2020 margins shift. The 2018 Democratic-majority pickup was a U.S. Popular Vote margin of D+8.56.)
If this plays out, much of the voting electorate will figure, “Who is Justin…What did you say is his last name?â€
Thanks, D. i always appreciate Your detailed and data-driven analyses and conclusions. It’s a welcome change from most of what is offered as argumentation all over the blogosphere, including here.
Again, D, you came through! 🙂
However, I wonder if Amash could draw Democrats, based on some of the issues I mentioned in the Sunday, May 3 entry!
We shall see in November!
D wrote: It is because, when it comes to Libertarian and Green, one can look to Libertarian as an alternative to Republican and Green as an alternative to Democratic. Ideologically, Libertarian is closer to Republican than Democratic and Green is closer to Democratic than Republican.
That’s how I’ve always viewed it as well.
A party’s platform shows a political party’s principles, goals and strategies designed to address current and relevant political issues. Of the two major parties, many of my beliefs fit with the Democrats’ platform.
http://web.archive.org/web/20171116154015/https://www.democrats.org/party-platform