“Establishment” Republicans

3 Moderate Republicans To Retire (Ileana Ros Lethinen Of Florida, Dave Reichart Of Washington, Charlie Dent Of Pennsylvania), Opening Up Seats To Democratic Gains

Ronald 1 Comment

Three members of the House of Representatives who are moderates, and who have had strong doubts about Donald Trump all along, have decided to “jump ship”. and not run for reelection in 2018.

In so doing, they, and others who might do the same, are demonstrating the problem of the future of the Republican Party, that it is in danger of becoming an extremist right wing party, which is anti government and the traditions of the Republican Party.

Florida Congresswoman Ileana Ros Lehtinen, Washington Congressman Dave Reichart, and Pennsylvania Congressman Charlie Dent have all decided not to run for reelection, and their loss is not good for the GOP future.

All three are seen as likely to back an impeachment move against Donald Trump, so they have an opportunity to become historic figures in the process of bringing Trump down over the next months.

With Trump repudiating Establishment Republican leadership (Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell), and making a deal with Democrats and moderate Republicans on aid for Hurricane Harvey and a three month extension of the debt limit, avoiding a crisis at the end of September, it is clear that civil war is developing in the Republican Party.

This includes the right wing extremists of the House Freedom Caucus working to form a third party movement, splintering the party into factions that bode ill for the party future in 2018 and beyond.

The Death Of Phyllis Schlafly: The War On Women And Social Change By A Divisive Woman Of The Right Wing

Ronald 4 Comments

The death of Phyllis Schlafly yesterday marked the end of the life of a hateful woman who opposed feminism and gay rights, and promoted the rise of Republican conservatism in a masterly, if overwhelmingly nasty, manner.

Schlafly became first noticed when she vigorously backed Republican Senator Barry Goldwater in 1964, when the Establishment Republicans repudiated him and led to his massive defeat.

She ended her life with an endorsement of Donald Trump a few weeks ago, again a candidate repudiated by much of the Establishment Republicans.

In between, she bitterly fought the Equal Rights Amendment and Gay Rights, and headed the Eagle Forum, an extreme right wing organization, which became engaged in promotion of right wing attitudes on all subjects, including immigration and attacks on the federal government in favor of states rights.

The woman was very intelligent and effective in promoting her beliefs, and became noticed when she debated the role of women in public life on numerous television programs back in the 1970s, infuriating those who could not stomach her extremist views.

Somehow, it seemed as if Phyllis Schlafly would never leave us, but now, finally, at age 92, she has, and her impact, as negative as it is, will still be felt for a long time.

Are We On The Road To A 5th Four Way Presidential Election?

Ronald 3 Comments

In American history, we have had four Presidential elections in which there were four candidates who gained a substantial percentage of popular votes.

The first time was 1824, with Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, William Crawford and Henry Clay.

The second time was 1860, with Abraham Lincoln, Stephen Douglas, John C. Breckinridge, and John Bell.

The third time was 1912, with Woodrow Wilson, Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and Eugene Debs.

The fourth time was 1948, with Harry Truman, Thomas E. Dewey, Strom Thurmond, and Henry A. Wallace.

The first two times, 1824 and 1860, saw the success of new political parties, the Democrats under Jackson by 1828 and the Republicans under Lincoln in 1860.  The third time brought the success of progressivism at its peak under Wilson with Roosevelt’s indirect contributions, and the fourth insured the forward movement in foreign and domestic policy under Truman.

Now in 2016, we could have four candidates, including Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and potentially Bernie Sanders or Jesse Ventura.  And who can deny that Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney or John Kasich might also be potential candidates?

The first three named above seem almost certain, but there is some speculation that Sanders could run on a independent line, and that Jesse Ventura, the former Governor of Minnesota, might run if Sanders fails to be the Democratic nominee, and decides to avoid an independent run.  If Trump is nominated, the odds of Ryan or Romney or Kasich running as the “Establishment” Republican opponent grows, just as is likely that Trump will run as an independent if he is not the party’s nominee.

Hillary Clinton would win against a split Republican Party, but IF Sanders runs or even Ventura, the potential exists, in a four way race, for anything to happen, including the need to use the 12th Amendment, as occurred in 1824, which would give the Republican nominee the advantage, with the Republican control of the House of Representatives!

Republican Scenario: A President Who Alienates His Own Party, If Trump Or Cruz Were To Occupy The White House!

Ronald 8 Comments

It seems clear that the Republican Party is in the throes of dying as a major political party, as so many Republicans, both office holders and ordinary voters, cannot imagine either Donald Trump or Texas Senator Ted Cruz as their party’s nominee.

Only Ohio Governor John Kasich is left from the mainstream element of the party, but he cannot win the nomination on the first ballot, and has to hope for a contested convention, which does seem more likely as time passes.

Kasich has the best chance, in public opinion polls, to defeat either Hillary Clinton or Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, while both Trump and Cruz lose in competition against both Democrats.

And there is the issue how Republicans would work with either Trump or Cruz as President, as most Congressional Republicans are turned off by both of them.

We could, in theory, have a Republican Party, or a shell of a party, in warfare against their own President, an event which would be unique in American history!

The Revival And Rebirth Of Marco Rubio: Now The Only Hope Left For The Republican Party Future?

Ronald 15 Comments

Twelve days ago, Florida Senator Marco Rubio looked like a ‘dead man”, after his disastrous debate performance, repeating a statement about Barack Obama four times.

It was embarrassing for Rubio, and even if one does not care for Rubio, anyone with any empathy had to be embarrassed for him.

Everyone thought New Jersey Governor Chris Christie would benefit from calling out Rubio, but the following week, Rubio ended up in third place, ahead of all of the Governors in the race—Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Christie, with Christie in sixth place, and out of the race.

Some would say that Christie’s collapse was fundamental justice, and one can be sure Rubio has thought that.

But now, Rubio has impressed in the most recent debate, and also, particularly in a Town Hall last night on CNN with Anderson Cooper, which had separate 40 minute discussions between Cooper and each of three candidates, rather than a debate, and with ordinary citizens asking the questions.

It is as if there has been a revival and rebirth of Marco Rubio, and on top of all this good news for him, South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has endorsed him for Governor ahead of the South Carolina primary, a major boost.

Haley gained positive reaction to her reaction after the Charleston Massacre at a African American church last June, and African American Senator Tim Scott had also, earlier, endorsed Rubio.

The possibility of a serious challenge to both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz has now grown, and the “Establishment” wing of the Republican Party is likely to gather around Rubio after the South Carolina primary, and doom the chances of Jeb Bush and John Kasich, as well as Dr. Benjamin Carson.

And the idea of a Presidential ticket of Rubio and either Haley or Scott is growing—a Cuban American with an Indian American (from India) or an African American.

This would bring two “minorities” together, with Rubio being 45 and Haley reaching the same age precisely on Inauguration Day 2017, and Scott being 51—a youthful generation challenging an “old timer”,  such as Hillary Clinton, age 69 by Inauguration Day, and Bernie Sanders age 75 (the oldest first term President in American history).

This ticket, more likely Rubio and Haley, could be a difficult match for either Democratic Presidential candidate!

“Establishment” Republicans Are Handing The Presidential Nomination To Donald Trump Or Ted Cruz: Destruction Of The GOP In Process!

Ronald 8 Comments

The so called “Establishment” Republicans are rapidly destroying each other, and in effect, handing the nomination for President in 2016 to either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, which insures the destruction of the GOP is in process, as neither has any chance of winning the Presidency.

Trump is a total charlatan and Cruz is a right wing ideologue who makes Barry Goldwater, the disastrous 1964 GOP nominee, look like a moderate by comparison!

But instead of uniting around one candidate, and giving up their own egos and lust for power, the four “Establishment” candidates—Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Chris Christie—are attacking each other with a vengeance, which means it is likely that none of them will do better than third in Iowa and New Hampshire, and will destroy any chance of a more centrist candidate being selected!

Whatever one thinks of Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki, they all saw reality, and decided to thin the field in an attempt to avoid the nomination of Trump or Cruz.

But it has not convinced anyone else to drop out, so it looks like gloom and doom for the GOP, with no chance to win the Presidency in 2016, and a good chance that they will lose the US Senate, and see their margin in the House of Representatives cut down dramatically in 2016!

Right Wing Christian Zealots Back Donald Trump While Establishment Republicans Condemn Trump On Anti Muslim Stand!

Ronald 1 Comment

The Republican Party is in a quandary as to how to deal with Fascist demagogue Donald Trump, who is still leading the polls and is gaining the backing of a plurality, if not a majority, of registered Republicans, in polls, on the issue of banning all Muslim immigration to the United States.

The fact that Trump is a clear cut racist, nativist, and Islamophobe does not perturb those Republicans being polled, and yet we have seen condemnation by all Republican candidates of Trump’s demagogic proposal, with the exception of Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum.  So we have seen Republican Congressional leaders Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, along with many other leading Republicans, even including former Vice President Dick Cheney, take a stand opposing that displayed in the polls.

What we have seen is despicable characters such as: Michele Bachmann, Ann Coulter, Franklin Graham, Alex Jones, Pam Geller, Bryan Fischer, Pat Robertson, Frank Gaffney, and David Duke endorse Trump on this issue, despite their shady image as advocates of civil liberties and civil rights long term.

So the Republican Party and the conservative movement are at a crossroads, as they are trying to evade the damage being done to their brand by Trump and his ilk, but there is no question that the Trump phenomenon, the promotion of a modern Fascism, will not come to power, despite the ignorance and narrow mindedness of a portion of the American people.

Instead, it looks as if the Republican Party is about to implode, as it desperately attempts to overcome Trump, and we can expect the possibility of a brokered convention next July, which would be the most tumultuous Republican convention since the Gerald Ford-Ronald Reagan battle in 1976, and the even more tumultuous Democratic convention of 1968!

“Establishment” Republicans Panicking, Moving Toward Draft Of Mitt Romney!

Ronald 4 Comments

“Establishment” Republicans are in full panic, as Donald Trump and Dr. Benjamin Carson remain first and second in all public opinion polls in the first caucus and primary states, and in national polls.

The “Establishment” Republicans see Jeb Bush faltering; John Kasich not “taking off”; Chris Christie faltering; and Marco Rubio doing better, but still not fully trusted by the mainstream Republicans.

But the question is whether taking a “retread”, Mitt Romney, who has run twice already, and been defeated in the past national election, will bring unity and victory.

History would tell us that such a quest by the “Establishment” Republicans will end in failure, even if, somehow, Romney agreed to run, and he does not seem eager to go through another round of a Presidential campaign, three times in a row.

Don’t hold your breath on this one!

 

 

With Jeb Bush Floundering, Opportunity For John Kasich Potential To Rise Grows Dramatically!

Ronald 15 Comments

It is clear that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is floundering in his Presidential bid, with his expression of exasperation at the toil and turmoil of campaigning, his complaints about being attacked by Donald Trump, and his wish he was able to do other things rather than waste his time, is stunning.

Despite his family name, one can say that Jeb Bush is probably done, unless he makes a major revival in today’s  Republican Presidential debate in Boulder, Colorado, sponsored by CNBC.

This opens up opportunity for John Kasich  to emerge as the “Establishment” candidate, and be able to combat the fact that Donald Trump and Dr. Benjamin Carson are in a massive lead in public opinion polls.

Marco Rubio is already showing signs that he is about to destroy his chances, by his announcement that he plans to vote against the budget deal negotiated by outgoing Speaker of the House John Boehner, designed to keep the economy and budget stable until 2017 and the next President, and give incoming Speaker Paul Ryan a breather as he takes over House leadership. This is simply designed to gain support of the extremist right wing Freedom or Tea Party Caucus in the House, a massive error by Rubio.  It is almost as if Rubio, who has now condemned his job in the Senate, saying he has never liked it, is about to push himself out of politics altogether by his reckless behavior.

But also Rubio complaining about being unhappy as a Senator makes one wonder about his character, as the people of the third largest state, Florida, gave him the gift of serving in the Senate, which many people, including this author and blogger, would “die” for, and yet he is complaining about a “plum” job, one of the best one could attain for.  So this also makes Rubio far from the ideal candidate for President, because it makes one wonder whether he is interested in being President no matter what challenges he will face, and would he be able to handle the frustrations of the job, just by asking Barack Obama!

John Kasich has now expressed total exasperation about Donald Trump wanting to deport 11 million people and build a “Trump Wall”, which he considers preposterous; about Dr. Benjamin Carson, who now says he wants to end Medicare and Medicaid completely, along with his many whacko statements and revelations about his background; about Rubio, complaining about being a Senator; and about Bush, who seems not to want to work for the Presidency and wants the job handed to him on a silver platter, as if he is “entitled” to it!

Kasich is expressing what moderate conservative Republicans and outsiders, such as this blogger, feel, and the belief that John Kasich remains the best choice for the GOP, with his long career in the House of Representatives; his business and media career; and now his popular leadership as Governor of the most crucial state for any Republican Presidential nominee, the state of Ohio.

If the GOP had any sense, and its voters had mainstream ideas, John Kasich would be the nominee, but right now, the odds on that seem long.  The question is whether the party will overcome its extremist right wing Tea Party-Freedom Caucus and come into the light of a mainstream alternative to the Democrats, having lost the popular vote five of the last six times for the White House.  If they do not, the Republican Party long range future is doomed!

Republican Party History: Key Dates Of 1860, 1912, 1964, 2016—the 52 Year Syndrome!

Ronald 12 Comments

The Republican has had a long, controversial history since its founding in 1854 as a party opposed to the expansion of slavery, and containing within itself, those opposed to the institution of slavery itself.

After only six years, the Republican Party reached majority control of both houses of Congress and the White House, with Abraham Lincoln.

From then until 52 years later, 1912, the GOP dominated American politics, except in the South, where the Democrats prevailed.

In 1912, the party split between former President Theodore Roosevelt, an extremely popular and path breaking President, the greatest Republican President since Lincoln, and the incumbent President, William Howard Taft, who was supported by conservatives of the time against TR’s Progressive Party challenge, which led to Taft only winning two states and 23 percent of the national popular vote, and putting Democrat Woodrow Wilson in the White House.

While the Republicans recovered in the 1920s, and almost defeated Wilson in 1916 with their nominee, Charles Evans Hughes, the Great Depression decimated the Republican Party, and the Democrats became the majority party, while the Republicans continued to battle between moderates and conservatives, with the moderates winning the nominations for President, until finally, Senator Barry Goldwater defeated the Establishment  forces led by New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller in 1964, 52 years after the earlier collapse.  Goldwater went on to lose the popular vote in a two way race by a larger margin than ever in American history, with Lyndon B. Johnson winning over 61 percent of the national vote.

This massive defeat did not end the civil war in the GOP, with Gerald Ford just barely winning the nomination over Ronald Reagan in 1976, and losing a very close race to Jimmy Carter.  But Reagan then won the White House, and the right wing felt it was in its glory, although Reagan was, actually, very unpredictable in his policies and views, and would today, probably be rejected by the extreme right wing in control of the GOP in 2015.

The right wing was unhappy with George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney as insufficiently conservative, and now there is full scale civil war in the GOP, including revolts against Speaker of the House John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  The rise of Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, and Carly Fiorina, all non office holders, demonstrates the right wing desire to fight the GOP establishment, but what it means is certain defeat in 2016.

Likely, no matter who is nominated, the Republican Party is, seemingly, at a 52 year mark, again ready to implode upon itself, and give the Democrats long term control of the Presidency, as the situation now appears!