Prediction That Four States Will Decide Presidential Election—Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida–Is That Legitimate?

Many political observers are saying that four states are the true battleground that will decide who is inaugurated President on January 20, 2017.

Those states are Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.

The question is whether that belief is legitimate.

This blogger thinks it is much more complicated than those four states, and that two of them–Pennsylvania and Florida—are assured for the Democrats as it is.

Yes, it is true that Pennsylvania west of Philadelphia and east of Pittsburgh is often called “Alabama”, but Pennsylvania has been reliably “Blue” or Democratic for six straight elections from 1992 onward, and that is not likely to change. If “Alabama” really mattered as much as some think, then how did our African American President win the state both in 2008 and 2012? If anything, with the economy far better now than it was in 2008 and 2012, and with Barack Obama’s public opinion rating now at 58 percent, the highest since his first year in office (2009), Pennsylvania is assured to go “Blue” again. Remember, all that is needed is to win the most popular votes to win the electoral votes, not necessary to win a majority, but just a plurality.

Florida, despite being Republican in state elections, went for Barack Obama twice, and now there are many more Puerto Rican citizens who have moved from the island to central Florida in particular, due to the tough economic times in Puerto Rico. Puerto Ricans are citizens who just need to re-register at their new address, and the vast majority of them are Democrats, and therefore now lessen the Cuban influence on the state vote. And many younger Cubans are not automatically conservative or Republican as their elders are. With the I-4 corridor (Central Florida) becoming more likely Democratic, add much of South Florida to the equation (Broward and Palm Beach Counties), and the influence of North Florida and Miami-Dade County (where many immigrants turned citizens from Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and other nations in Latin America have migrated and not generally Republicans) are therefore outweighed, and with the better public opinion ratings of Obama added to the mix, the odds are that Florida will go “Blue” again.

Ohio is more difficult, and history tells us that every elected Republican President has won Ohio, so this is truly the crucial state but with Hillary Clinton having the edge in most polls. And one must remember Hillary has a built in edge in “Blue” States, and does not have to win Ohio, while Donald Trump must win it or have no chance to win the White House.

North Carolina went for Obama in 2008 but went “Red” for Mitt Romney in 2012, but polls now indicate that Hillary is favored, but again is not essential for Hillary to win the Presidency.

I would say beyond these four states, there are the states of Georgia and Arizona and Utah, all “Red” states, that indicate close races, with the possibility that they could go “Blue” for this election, and possibly beyond, particularly true for Georgia and Arizona, due to the increase in Hispanic and Latino population and voters.

So Hillary Clinton still has an overwhelming advantage, with eight weeks out from Election Day, to win the Presidency.

Massive Puerto Rican Migration To Florida Promotes Likelihood Democrats Will Win “The Sunshine State” In 2016 Presidential Election!

Events in Puerto Rico are transforming the Presidential Election of 2016 before our eyes!

Puerto Rico, which is in the special status as a Commonwealth, and has flirted with the concept of possibly becoming the 51st state, is going through crisis times, with a massive debt, unable to pay it, and effectively going bankrupt.

As a result, we are witnessing a major migration of Puerto Ricans to the mainland of the United States, particularly to Florida, for economic opportunity.

Remember that Puerto Ricans are citizens of the United States, and are not to be seen as “immigrants”, legal or illegal. They can register as voters immediately, and it is clear that they will play a major role in the Florida vote for President, as well as state and national offices, including the United States Senate and the US House of Representatives.

The vast majority of Puerto Ricans in the United States have been Democrats, and nothing that the Republican Party has said and done about Hispanics is about to convince them to vote Republican! This means that the crucial “swing state” of Florida could be expected to fall into the hands of the Democratic Presidential nominee, whoever it is, just about guaranteeing an Electoral College majority!

It is now believed that very soon there will be more Puerto Ricans in Florida than Cubans, and already there are more than one million living in the state.

This is particularly true in Central Florida, the Orlando-Tampa area, an area that tends to decide state and national elections, and could, therefore, increase the number of Democratic members of the state legislature, the House of Representatives, and help elect a Democratic Senator to succeed Marco Rubio.

The Immigrant Children Of El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala And The History Of Children Escaping Persecution And Death!

Nativism in its most incendiary way is rearing its ugly head in regards to the mass migration of women and children, some of them babies, but all under adult age, who are fleeing persecution, bloodshed, and potential death in the unstable nations of Central America, some of the most violent nations on earth.

This is specifically the case of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala, with about 90,000 expected to flee their nations, walking on foot, going through tough terrain, many drowning or being overcome by the elements otherwise, but all wanting a better, more secure existence in America.

But the hysteria has grown, that somehow, these women and children are involved in drug smuggling, or are future terrorists over the next generation, or other such ridiculous, hard hearted views of their plight.

One must not forget, however, that this kind of nativism is nothing new in America!

It was visited upon Jews, Italians, Irish, Polish, Chinese, Japanese, and migrants from Mexico and other Latin American countries over the long haul of American history!

This nation refused to open its borders to Jews wishing to escape Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany in the 1930s and 1940s, and very small numbers of children were ever allowed in, and many died in the Holocaust!

Nativism was also utilized against Vietnamese escaping the collapse of South Vietnam forty years ago, with many “Boat People” dying in the South China Sea or the Pacific Ocean, but others making it to America, of all ages.

Cubans escaping Fidel Castro, including many children in the Mariel Boat Lift in 1980, were seen as dangerous and should not be admitted, but eventually were, since they could not be returned to Cuba.

The attempts to bring some Iraqis and Afghans of Muslim religion to this country has been a long battle as well.

But we have a tendency to forget we are a nation of immigrants, and particularly in times of political, social, and economic turmoil, we are the last best hope of mankind to offer asylum!

So now, IF the families of these children from El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala can be reunited, then they may be returned to their host nations, but that should only be if their lives are not in danger, as to return them to certain death is unconscionable!

But IF the families cannot be reunited, sad as that may be, we have no realistic choice but to house, feed, and educate them, and give them the possibility of the “American Dream”!

If we simply reject these children and young mothers, we are losing the whole purpose of the American experiment, as expressed by the Statue of Liberty and Ellis Island. We cannot turn our back on these children and condemn them to death, particularly in a nation which claims to support life itself as a goal!

The Four “States” Of Florida

Florida began early voting today, and it is the ultimate “swing state”, as it is really four “states”!

North Florida and the Panhandle is strongly conservative and Republican, except for Gainesville, the home of the flagship University of Florida.

Central Florida is the ultimate battleground of Tampa and Orlando, with growing Hispanic population, heavily Puerto Rican, but also Midwesterners who are Republicans, so it is hard to know what will happen here.

Palm Beach and Broward Counties in South Florida are fertile Democratic territory, and heavily Jewish and other Northeasterners.

Miami Dade County is heavily Cuban, likely Republican, but the younger generation may be straying from their parents and grandparents.

Voter turnout and enthusiasm will decide if Florida goes to Barack Obama or Mitt Romney in ten days!

Major Florida Factor Often Not Considered: The Puerto Rican, And Other Non Cuban Hispanic Vote

As the battle for Florida’s electoral votes goes on, many observers are failing to realize the possible influence of the massively increased Puerto Rican population, particularly in the major area of significance, Central Florida.

Often, many people assume that the Hispanic vote is mostly Cuban, and that they, of course, traditionally vote Republican because of the failure of John F. Kennedy to eliminate Fidel Castro at the Bay of Pigs in 1961.

But in recent years, the Puerto Rican population in the state of Florida, and particularly, in Central Florida, has ballooned to nearly match or surpass the Cuban population found mostly in South Florida.

There are nearly a million Puerto Ricans in Florida, a state that is always rapidly changing, and becoming more non Cuban Hispanic by the month.

The Puerto Ricans of Florida, with smaller numbers in the past, supported the election and reelection of Governor Jeb Bush, but they went to Barack Obama for President in 2008, and are seen as likely, by large percentages, to vote for him again. The key, as always, will be voter turnout.

Additionally, there are a growing number of Hispanics from other nations in the Western Hemisphere, and the tendency of many would be to support Obama, although the very religious element, against abortion and gay marriage, might not, but the point being made here is that to assume, because of some polls at the moment, that Mitt Romney has Florida locked up, with its 29 electoral votes, is a massive mistake, as Florida will be in play, and may well decide who is the next President. And realize that younger Cuban Americans, in many cases, are abandoning the Republican beliefs of their parents and grandparents, and some will vote for Barack Obama!

And remember, with the biggest prize of the “swing” states, 29 electoral votes, Florida may select Barack Obama for a second term, and without the intervention of the Supreme Court for George W. Bush, as in the Presidential Election of 2000!

Florida In Play For Democrats In 2012: A Shock To Republicans!

Florida has become in many ways the center of right wing conservatism, what with the election of Governor Rick Scott, Senator Marco Rubio, and Congressman Allen West in the midterm 2010 elections.

The state legislature is about three fourths Republican as well, and only six Democrats serve Florida in the House of Representatives.

No one is saying that the Democrats are about to take over state politics, as that will be a long haul, but public opinion polls show that Barack Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in state polls about the Presidential election, and that Democratic Senator Bill Nelson has a big lead over Congressman Connie Mack IV, and that former appointed Senator George Lemieux is not even in the equation for the upcoming race.

The odds for Lois Frankel to overcome Adam Hasner for the Palm Beach County seat, that West held before he chose to move to a new congressional district in northern Palm Beach County and Martin and St. Lucie Counties, is seen as very good. And West is facing a major challenge in a young, charismatic CPA named Patrick Erin Murphy.

This is probably due to the improving economy, and the growing alienation nationwide of Independents, non Cuban Hispanics, and women to the GOP agenda.

Since Florida is the ultimate “swing state”, this might improve the possibility of Senator Rubio as the Vice Presidential running mate of Mitt Romney, even though Rubio keeps on saying that he has no interest, at age 41, rising to that level.

Florida will certainly be paid a lot of attention in this year’s political races!

Florida In Many Ways The Major Battleground Of America In 2012

The state of Florida is now the center of attention, with its Presidential primary coming up on Tuesday, and polls indicating that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a double digit lead over former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, with Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and Texas Congressman Ron Paul lagging behind.

Romney, by going on the attack against Gingrich in the two Florida debates this past week, and spending about four times as much on campaign advertising as Gingrich, seems likely to win despite the decision of two popular Floridians, Senator Marco Rubio and former Governor Jeb Bush to avoid endorsing anyone.

Without an endorsement, it still seems as if both Rubio and Bush are secretly behind Romney, seeing Gingrich as divisive and likely to cause a disruption in party unity.

Both are potential Vice Presidential candidates for Romney, and both are also potential Presidential candidates in 2016 if the Republicans lose to Barack Obama in 2012.

And being the third largest state, with an increase of two electoral votes, and matching New York in electoral votes, Florida becomes the biggest battleground of all, since California and New York are seen as strongly Democratic and Texas as strongly Republican.

Florida, won by Obama in 2008, is definitely up for grabs with its 29 electoral votes, and it is really three or four states. There is the Panhandle of Florida, likely to go Republican for sure. There is Central Florida, including Tampa and Orlando and other areas, which is the real battleground. There is Broward and Palm Beach Counties, likely to support Obama. And then there is the Miami-Dade County influence of Cuban Americans, traditionally Republican.

Florida is the South (Alabama) in the North; the Midwest in the Central area; and Northeast and Cuba in the South. It is also affected by the Jewish vote in South Florida and the Puerto Rican vote in Central Florida. As one observer summed it up, Florida is the Jews, the Cubans, and the “rednecks”! Of course, this is an oversimplification of the state’s political clout, but it is clear that the Republican nominee and President Obama will spend a lot of time in the state, as it may very well decide who occupies the White House in 2013!

Florida: A Complex State Politically, And Hard To Predict Its Impact

With the Florida Republican Primary just eight days away, and with many Republican voters having already engaged in early voting or absentee mail ballots, the question arises as to what one can expect to happen on January 31.

Mitt Romney has the most money and is seen as the moderate in the race, although he professes to be conservative.

Newt Gingrich, flush off his victory in South Carolina, would seem to have an edge, although Florida is not quite the same as South Carolina electorally, being much more unpredictable.

Florida is really multiple states in electoral behavior, as the Panhandle, particularly west of Tallahassee, the state capital, is very much like South Carolina or “southern Alabama”, strongly evangelical Christian and Tea Party oriented. But central Florida, including Tampa and Orlando, tends to be made up of people from the Midwest, while South Florida has large concentrations of Cubans, but also Northeasterners, including Jews in large numbers. And Puerto Ricans are found in Orlando in large numbers, and liberal strongholds exist in Tallahassee due to Florida State University’s presence, and in Gainesville, home of the University of Florida.

So if Florida comes across in the GOP Primary as too conservative, that can affect the balance among Hispanics, African Americans, and Jews, heavily concentrated in South Florida and portions of Central Florida, when it comes to the Presidential election in November.

Florida has a “split personality”, and being a megastate, more representative of the nation than Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, it could turn out to be very unpredictable in its impact on the Republican Presidential battle, and in the fall campaign against Barack Obama.

A Major Positive For Barack Obama In 2012: The Hispanic-Latino Vote

Many Hispanics and Latinos are unhappy with President Barack Obama, due to the deportation policies of the administration, seen as considerably tougher than under George W. Bush; and to the continuing economic difficulties faced by them, a higher unemployment rate than whites.

But yet, it seems clear from a survey of the Pew Hispanic Center that Hispanics and Latinos will back Obama by 2-1 over any Republican opponent.

The reason is the constant anti Hispanic and anti Latino statements of Republicans running for the Presidency, and the Republican membership of Congress.

Also, jobs, education and health care matter most to Hispanics and Latinos, and on all three, the GOP is seen as unfriendly and antagonistic to the values and concerns of those groups.

John McCain received 31 percent of the Hispanic and Latino vote in 2008. George W. Bush had done better, with about 40 percent. It seems clear that whoever the Republican nominee is, he is unlikely to get much more than 20 percent, if that.

And only Cuban Americans are likely to vote in the majority for the Republican nominee for President, while Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, and other Central and South American Hispanics will certainly back Obama overwhelmingly!

The Census And Reapportionment: Will The Republicans Self Destruct Their Theoretical Advantage By Their Anti Immigration Stand?

The census figures for 2010 that came out two days ago indicate, theoretically, that the Republican Party should benefit, as most of the states that gained House seats are considered “red states”.

Specifically, Texas gained four seats, Florida two seats, Georgia one seat, South Carolina one seat, Arizona one seat and Utah one seat, along with Nevada gaining one seat and Washington State also gaining one seat.

Notice that these states have very high immigration rates, especially Hispanic–particularly Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada, and the facts show that the vast majority of new population in these states is due to immigration growth, whether legal or illegal.

So while the GOP can be expected to gain seats in the House of Representatives, as well as the state legislatures for the short term, it is also reality that if they continue to alienate Latino voters who are legal with their anti immigration stand, the bulk of the new population that can vote will be more likely to vote Democratic, which is the normal tradition anyway for Latinos, except for Cubans in Florida.

So even with short term gains by the Republicans, they could indeed “shoot themselves in the foot” politically long term, and rue the day they decided to take a hard nosed stand against immigration, both legal and illegal, particularly in dealing with the children of illegals, who should not be blamed for what their parents did, and therefore deny them the right to become citizens via military service or college education, leaving them in limbo in the only country they remember!

The apparent refusal of the Republicans to consider the DREAM Act will likely reverberate, and benefit the Democrats, and a party that only appeals to whites is doomed in the long run, as the population of the country will be majority non white by 2040 and after!

So this will be a growing factor in American politics as the years of this new decade go by!