Massive Puerto Rican Migration To Florida Promotes Likelihood Democrats Will Win “The Sunshine State” In 2016 Presidential Election!

Events in Puerto Rico are transforming the Presidential Election of 2016 before our eyes!

Puerto Rico, which is in the special status as a Commonwealth, and has flirted with the concept of possibly becoming the 51st state, is going through crisis times, with a massive debt, unable to pay it, and effectively going bankrupt.

As a result, we are witnessing a major migration of Puerto Ricans to the mainland of the United States, particularly to Florida, for economic opportunity.

Remember that Puerto Ricans are citizens of the United States, and are not to be seen as “immigrants”, legal or illegal. They can register as voters immediately, and it is clear that they will play a major role in the Florida vote for President, as well as state and national offices, including the United States Senate and the US House of Representatives.

The vast majority of Puerto Ricans in the United States have been Democrats, and nothing that the Republican Party has said and done about Hispanics is about to convince them to vote Republican! This means that the crucial “swing state” of Florida could be expected to fall into the hands of the Democratic Presidential nominee, whoever it is, just about guaranteeing an Electoral College majority!

It is now believed that very soon there will be more Puerto Ricans in Florida than Cubans, and already there are more than one million living in the state.

This is particularly true in Central Florida, the Orlando-Tampa area, an area that tends to decide state and national elections, and could, therefore, increase the number of Democratic members of the state legislature, the House of Representatives, and help elect a Democratic Senator to succeed Marco Rubio.

2 comments on “Massive Puerto Rican Migration To Florida Promotes Likelihood Democrats Will Win “The Sunshine State” In 2016 Presidential Election!

  1. D July 29, 2015 4:43 am

    In Florida, Orange County (with its county seat Orlando) has produced the following results over the last five U.S. presidential elections (in which the state carried for every winning candidate and did so within five percentage points from the popular-vote percentage margins):

    Florida: Bill Clinton (D, pickup) — D+5.70
    Orange County: Bob Dole — R+0.23
    Spread: R+5.93

    Florida: George W. Bush (R, pickup) — R+0.01
    Orange County: Al Gore — D+2.04
    Spread: D+2.05

    Florida: George W. Bush — R+5.01
    Orange County: John Kerry — D+0.21
    Spread: D+5.22

    Florida: Barack Obama (D, pickup) — D+2.81
    Orange County: Barack Obama — D+18.62
    Spread: D+15.81

    Florida: Barack Obama — D+0.88
    Orange County: Barack Obama — D+18.24
    Spread: D+17.36

    Florida has voted for every presidential winner — except the Democratic pickup winners of 1960 (John Kennedy) and 1992 (the first election of Bill Clinton) — since 1928. And, looking at that 1996 result, Orange County may have been a haven for Republicans, in the state, just as Hamilton County (Cincinnati) had been for the GOP even in presidential elections won by Democrats who carry both states. (Ohio has voted with for all presidential winners — except for the winning Democrats of 1944 and 1960 — since 1896. In 2008, Barack Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Ohio’s Hamilton County since a 1964 Lyndon Johnson. Obama carried the county again in 2012.)

    The Republicans are finding that a different Florida county — Volusia (DeLand) — is trending in their direction. (Al Gore, in 2000, carried it by over 8 percentage points. After Barack Obama flipped the state, in 2008, won Volusia County by about 6 percentage points, and carried Florida with re-election, in 2012, he lost Volusia County to Mitt Romney by just over a full percentage point.)

    In 2012, the votes from Orange County were approximately double that of Volusia County.

    Another county the Republicans are seeing trend away from them is Duval County (Jacksonville). In 2000, when George W. Bush won a Republican pickup of Florida, he carried the county about 17 percentage points above his statewide margin. In 2004, with Bush having won a Republican hold of the state, that spread came down to 11 points. In 2008, with Barack Obama’s Democratic pickup of Florida, Duval County held for losing Republican John McCain by just under five points above the statewide number. (McCain carried it by 1.90 percent as Obama flipped Florida by 2.81 — a spread of R+4.71.) And with re-election in 2012, and the state in Obama’s column, losing Republican challenger Mitt Romney couldn’t flip the state because, in part, he carried Duval County by only 3.60 percent to Obama having won the state by 0.88 percent — a spread of R+4.48. So, Duval County, over five elections, has been trending away from the Republicans and lately votes within five percentage points from the statewide result — but, if it was still performing at 10 or so percentage points more Republican than the state result, a 2012 Mitt Romney would’ve mathematically flipped Florida.

    By the way: Duval County is mathematically about 90 percent the votes cast from Orange County. The last Democrat to carry Duval County was a 1976 Jimmy Carter. If the trend continues in both Orange and Duval counties — and I’ve mentioned plenty of times we’re in a realigning presidential period for the Democrats — Florida will have no problem carrying for winning candidates from Team Blue.

  2. Ronald July 29, 2015 6:35 am

    Thanks, D, for the detailed analysis!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.