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Abortion Crucial Issue In Determining Future Of American Politics

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Ever since Roe V Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court in the Dobbs V Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision in June 2022, it has become the crucial issue to millions of American women and the men who support their right to reproductive freedom.

So far, since then, seven states have protected Abortion Rights, including Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Michigan, California and Vermont in 2022, and Ohio in 2023.

Ten states have abortion ballot measures that will be facing voters in November 2024–including Arizona, Maryland, Missouri, Montana (expansion beyond 2022 vote), Nebraska, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota, all of whom have a 50 percent threshold; and Colorado with a 55 percent threshold, and Florida with a 60 percent threshold.

The Florida ballot question will be the most difficult to accomplish, but both that state and Arizona, along with Maryland and Nevada, will be tied to Senate races that will be crucial for Democrats, who, hopefully, will keep control of the US Senate.

Eight To Eleven States To Vote On Abortion Rights In November Election

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Donald Trump has made the claim that abortion rights will not be a major issue in the Presidential Election of 2024.

The reality is otherwise, as already, since the Dobbs V. Women’s Health Organization Supreme Court decision of June 2022 reversed Roe V Wade, six states have insured abortion rights–California, Michigan, Ohio, Vermont, Kentucky, and Kansas.

And now, eight states will have the issue of abortion rights on the ballot in November, including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota.

Additionally three other states are in process of trying to put it on the ballot—Arkansas, Montana and Nebraska.

So it could be that 11 states will join the 6 earlier that have moved to allow abortion rights, negating the Dobbs decision.

The first 6 states were evenly divided politically, with California, Michigan, and Vermont being Democratic, and Ohio, Kentucky, and Kansas being Republican states.

The eight states that have definite votes in November are 5 Democratic leaning states—Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Nevada, and New York—and 3 leaning Republican—Florida, Missouri, and South Dakota.

And the other three states in process all tend to be Republican—Arkansas, Montana, and Nebraska.

So if one adds up these 17 states, there are 8 Democratic leaning states and 9 Republican leaning states.

This is all a very interesting situation in the battle for reproductive rights for women!

Psychiatric And Cognitive Concerns About Donald Trump Grow, As Harris Makes Major Gains In Polls

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Psychiatric and cognitive concerns about Donald Trump are growing, as he is becoming more delusional by the day, lashing out even at his own contributors, and obsessing about size of crowds for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, claiming false AI (Artificial Intelligence) photos!

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has surged to a lead over Trump in polls for Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and signs that she is gaining in Arizona and Nevada, including massive crowds showing up, despite 100 degree weather.

Trump is having trouble conceiving of how Harris replacing Joe Biden, and taking on Tim Walz, is having such a surge for three weeks, and with the Democratic National Convention coming in one week, an event very likely to boost Harris and Walz ever further in public support.

Major amounts of funds and volunteers continue to skyrocket, and more white men than expected are shown to be willing to move toward support of the Democratic ticket, to add to that of minority support, women, and young people.

With 226 electoral votes seen as assuredly Democratic, IF Harris can win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, she would end up with exactly 270 electoral votes, the magic number to win the Presidency, even without Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, the other so called “battleground” states!

Donald Trump And Crowd Sizes: Totally Unhinged!

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Donald Trump held a press conference at Mar a Lago on Thursday, rambling on for 75 minutes. His performance was clearly a melt down of major proportions.

He told a ton of lies, but what stood out even more was his obsession, as always, with the size of his crowds at public rallies and other events.

Trump has claimed that his 2017 Inauguration crowd was larger than that of Barack Obama in 2009, a total lie. This blogger and author was actually present at that historic inauguration, and knows personally how massive that crowd was on a very cold day, but people were willing to tolerate the cold weather.

Trump is now contesting, against reality, that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz only had about 2,000 people at their rallies in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, when the totals were between 12,000 and 15,000 at each rally, with the last two outside and in very hot weather.

And even more crazy, Trump is claiming that his crowds at many events, including his inauguration, were greater than on August 28, 1963, when Martin Luther King Jr. spoke before a crowd of 250,000 at the March on Washington!

Trump came up with absolutely insane numbers much higher than that date’s 250,000.

One has to say that seriously, Trump is in rapid decline, as the oldest Presidential nominee in American history!

If somehow he is elected, JD Vance will be the nightmare who is our President, despite the fact that he is a massive phony, who is a chameleon willing to say anything to advance himself!

Six Months To Presidential And Congressional Elections

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It is precisely six months to the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2024, and polls indicate an extremely tight race for both the White House and control of both houses of Congress.

However, the fact that Donald Trump is unleashing lunatic statements and authoritarian threats daily, and is mired in a courtroom four days a week, are negatives that are affecting independent voters and undecided voters.

And abortion rights is seen as a definite loser for Trump and Republicans, as the vast majority of those polled, and particularly among women, clearly want women to control their own bodies and destinies.

The issue of the Israel-Hamas War, while creating problems for Joe Biden in Michigan, in particular, seems likely to calm down, as Muslims and Arabs voting for Donald Trump would not promote a different policy, as Trump has a record of working to persecute Muslims and support Israel.

The economy, and particularly inflation, is an issue, but one must remember that Trump did promote the largest tax cut and increase of the national debt for any one term President, and the economy was in free fall due to his inability to deal with the COVID 19 pandemic adequately.

The fight for control of both houses of Congress will be a bitter one, with the likelihood that both houses will have very small margins of the majority, with the House of Representatives likely to go Democratic, but the US Senate likely, at this point, to swing Republican.

So federal judge appointments and more environmental executive orders are crucial for the Democrats and Joe Biden to accomplish in the next six months.

And constantly reminding Americans of the danger to American Democracy cannot be emphasized enough.

Wisconsin And Michigan: Republican Party Beginnings And Ultimate Battleground In 2024 Presidential Election!

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The Republican Party was founded in 1854, in the upper Midwest, with its founding on March 20 in Ripon, Wisconsin, and its first party convention held in Jackson, Michigan on July 6.

It was a reform oriented party, opposed to the expansion of slavery, and would dominate in the United States over the next seven decades until the rise of the Democratic Party, Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal in the midst of the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Interestingly, the Republican National Convention in July will be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, so in a sense a return to the roots of the party of 170 years of history.

However, the Republican Party of history basically can be seen as dead, gone, unlikely to be revived in a form reminiscent of the party’s history, as Donald Trump and his MAGA followers have totally destroyed the roots and the base of the historical Republican Party!

This is the ulimate battleground in the Presidential Election of 2024, as whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins the upper Midwest ultimately will determine who is elected to the Oval Office!

Two Crucial Democratic Issues That Can Be Used Against Donald Trump And Republicans—Abortion And Safety Net!

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With the Presidential Election 2024 campaign now in full swing, Democrats and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris need to put great emphasis on many issues, but two stick out in particular.

The right of women to control their own bodies and reproductive lives has been prevented by Donald Trump and his right wing appointments to the Supreme Court. But that battle already has seen several states reject abortion limitations:

Vermont
Ohio
Kentucky
Michigan
Kansas
Montana
California

And this abortion rights struggle is a massive commitment that must be fought in state after state!

Also, the issue of protection of the social safety net,specifically Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, has been a constant battle for decades, as Republicans have continued to attempt to cut funding and take away these wonderful programs started by Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal in the 1930s, and Lyndon B. Johnson and the Great Society in the 1960s!

“Battleground” States Should Be Expanded By Democrats!

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With an expected very close race for the Presidency between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and with three independent or third party challengers being an additional threat to take away votes from the major party candidates, it is urgent that the list of “battleground” states be expanded by Democrats!

The usual belief is that the following states are the “battlegrounds”:

Pennsylvania (19)
Michigan (15)
Wisconsin (10)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Nevada (6)

Total 77 Electoral Votes

But in addition, the following states need to be considered potentials for extra attention financially and through campaign appearances by Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and numerous Democratic supporters in public office:

New Hampshire (4)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (16)
Florida (30)
Minnesota (10)
New Mexico (5)

Total 78 Electoral Votes

Additionally, the Second District of Maine which has gone Republican in the past (2016 and 2020) should be focused on, as well as retaining the Second District of Nebraska, which has gone Democratic two times in the past (2008 and 2020), with both states allowing divided electoral votes for President.

So a total of 12 states and one Congressional District in Nebraska and Maine should be focused on to insure a Democratic victory in November!

So out of 538 Electoral Votes total, 157 are in play!

Presidential Election Of 2024 Likely To Hinge On Six States!

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It is very clear that American politics has reached the stage where it can be quite certain that the Presidential Election of 2024 will hinge on six states, where both major party Presidential candidates will spend most of their time and effort on winning just those six states that are likely to be in play!

The Republican nominee, almost certainly Donald Trump, will have the clearcut edge in states with 235 electoral votes, and Democratic President Joe Biden will have the advantage in states with 226 electoral votes.

So 77 electoral votes in six states will decide who wins the White House!

Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada

The nation is so bitterly divided that now it all comes down to these six states, unless there turns out to be a suprise.

And in future elections, other states could be in play, depending on voting patterns of new and younger voters!

It used to be that more states were in play, but in the past generation, parties have tended to gain dominance in many states!

If Trump Is Convicted, Estimate That Seven Percent Of His Supporters Would Abandon Him, Enough To Elect Joe Biden!

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As the primary season begins, indications are that IF Donald Trump is convicted on any of the 91 counts against him over four trials, that it would insure that Trump would be unable to win the Presidency.

An estimate is that at least SEVEN percent of Trump supporters now would abandon him if he was convicted, and facing prison time.

That seven percent may sound as not much, but it is believed it would be the margin of victory for President Joe Biden in key battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all states that Biden won in 2020, before the criminal actions of Donald Trump!

One must recall that Donald Trump has never won the popular vote, and could ill afford to lose seven percent of his support upon a conviction, which seems certain on at least some of the counts against him, as the evidence in the four cases coming up in future months is very strong!

And the belief is that third party or independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, and even a No Labels candidate for the White House would, when push came to shove, do very poorly, reminding us of the Presidential Election of 1948, when two known political leaders, Strom Thurmond and Henry A. Wallace, both expected to undermine Harry Truman against Republican Thomas E. Dewey, both flopped dramatically!