Gallup Polls

Nate Silver Convincing That Barack Obama Will Be Reelected President On Tuesday

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Nate Silver, the most legitimate prognosticator on the American political scene, who writes for the NY TIMES, has upped the ante on the reelection of Barack Obama to the White House with his declaration that the odds for Obama have been raised to 85 percent, based on 19 of 22 polls in the “swing states” in the past few days, showing him ahead.

Silver has always put Obama in the lead, but now, after Hurricane Sandy, his odds of winning have gone up.

So despite the Gallup and Rasmussen polls that show a near deadlock, Silver claims that Mitt Romney winning is a real gamble, and would not be worth a bet, unless one is prepared to lose a large amount of money!

We all know about the Gallup polls of 1948, which were totally wrong, but this is NOT 1948, and the thought is that the Gallup and Rasmussen polls are wrong, and that Nate Silver and the polls that show Obama winning are correct.

This author has always believed that Obama would win, based on his record, and the multiple faults and weaknesses of Mitt Romney and his campaign.

In about 60 hours, we shall know!

Ohio Remains Strongly For Barack Obama With Six Days To Go To Presidential Election

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Ohio, the state that EVERY Republican President has won from Abraham Lincoln to George W. Bush, remains strongly behind Barack Obama, with six days to go to the Presidential Election of 2012.

It seems as if Mitt Romney may be gaining in other “swing states”, according to some polls, although others show otherwise, but without Ohio, Romney would have to win all of the rest of those states to pull out a victory, and despite the Gallup national poll, which shows Romney ahead, the Nate Silver–NY Times model seems more likely the final result.

And if Obama wins Ohio and the election, the likely major reason will be because Obama saved the auto industry in Ohio and the Midwest, while Romney, despite his father’s involvement in the industry, will willing to allow it to die, and take with it, million of jobs, including ancillary industries.

Gallup Vs. Nate Silver: Who Is Reliable In Prediction Of Presidential Race?

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Here we are a week out from the election, and the public opinion polls and prognosticators are driving everyone nuts, with contradictory views and statistics as to whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be elected next week.

The Gallup polls have projected Romney as ahead by five points in some polls, and other polls have shown a tight race, almost even.

Meanwhile, Nate Silver of the NY TIMES, considered the master of political polling science, says that Barack Obama has about a 73 percent chance of winning, particularly in regard to the “swing states”, showing him ahead in all but North Carolina and Florida, and a tossup in Colorado and Virginia.

But leaving North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Virginia out of the mix for Obama, that still means he is favored in New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nevada, and will win 295 electoral votes, 24 more than is needed to win the Presidency.

So this leaves us in a quandary!

Who do we trust or believe in? Nate Silver or the Gallup Polls, or other polls?

Remember, the Gallup polls were totally wrong in 1948, predicting a victory for Thomas E. Dewey over Harry Truman!

But, of course, that was 64 years ago, a long time, with much improvement and proof of reliability of Gallup much of the time!

On the other hand, the last time we had such a stiff, awkward, hard to relate to, Governor of a Northeastern state who had been born in Michigan, before Mitt Romney was, indeed, Dewey in 1948!

Hmmm, that is food for thought!

A Good Week For Barack Obama, Including Debate Performance!

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The first week of October has been good to Barack Obama!

His Gallup poll rating is at its highest since the fall of 2009, now registering at 54 percent! This is a strong indication of his upcoming victory precisely one month from today!

Many want to believe that his debate performance harmed him, without realizing that while he might not have been at his best, it really does not matter, as incumbent Presidents tend to do poorly on the first debate with a challenger, as indicated in an earlier post. After all, they have more on their mind than the campaign, such as governing and dealing with crises on a daily basis. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has done nothing for the past six years other than run for President, and he has had a multitude of mistakes and poor performances with his rhetoric and comments!

If Obama had come out charging in this first debate, he would be accused of being an “angry black man”, which terrifies many working class whites and uneducated people, who are accustomed to a different image of blacks, which is an unspoken sign of massive racism! So if he smiles and lets Mitt Romney hang himself as a phony, a chameleon, a liar on a massive scale, he is criticized, but Romney has added to the image that he is untrustworthy by his aggressive performance full of deceit and manipulation! Obama actually handled the situation well, and that will be seen as time goes by!

Now that Romney has proved again that he is a charlatan, Joe Biden will go on the assault against ideologue Paul Ryan, and then Obama will go after Romney in the last two Presidential debates. He will follow Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush in recovering from a theoretical first debate that was unimpressive, to go on to electoral victory!

But also, the victories for voting rights in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the stopping of voter registration by Republicans in Florida and four other states, due to obvious GOP corruption, will upend the Republican attempt to cut out millions of potential Democratic voters in “swing” states.

And the economic revival that is going on, lowering the unemployment rate below 8 percent for the first time in his term of office, will help Obama, as most sane people will dismiss the conspiracy theories of conservatives and Republicans that the honorable and independent Bureau Of Labor Statistics is corrupt!

And the fact that Obama saved the auto industry; has seen the stock market double during his term; that manufacturing is reviving in America; and that energy production is up domestically without destroying the environment—-all this is further proof that this has been a good week on the road to ultimate victory one month from now!

The Problem Of Religion For Mitt Romney, And How He Deals With It: In A Demagogic Manner!

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Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has many problems on the road to the Republican Presidential nomination, and despite his wins tonight in the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Wisconsin, his path to the Presidency is complicated, and it turns out, religion remains a major barrier.

Mitt Romney is a Mormon, a faith regarded by many Christian groups as a religious cult.

Mitt Romney was testy when asked a question yesterday about the tenets of his faith, regarding interracial sexual relations. He said he did not wish to discuss religion, but that is not going to make that issue go away.

When one looks at Gallup polls about how people feel about different religions, we discover that 7 percent say they would not vote for a Baptist; an equal 7 percent would not vote for a Catholic; 9 percent would not vote for a Jew; while 22 percent would not vote for a Mormon!

Only two groups rate higher in voter reluctance to vote for a candidate of that religion: 46 percent would not vote for a Muslim; and 49 percent would not vote for an atheist.

So what has Romney decided to do? Instead of arguing, as many demagogues of his party and in talk radio have done, that Barack Obama is a secret Muslim, Romney goes one better.

Romney is now claiming that Obama is promoting “secularism”, in other words, “atheism”, that Obama does not really believe in God!

How despicable and demagogic Romney has become, trying to label Obama as an atheist, due to the fact that the percentage who would not vote for an atheist is double and more that of those who would not vote for a Mormon!

Romney is exploiting religious prejudice and hatred, at a time when he has a religious problem of his own!

What could be more unprincipled? And it is clear that it will not work, and Romney, by bringing it up, deserves a walloping repudiation in November!

Using The Power Of The Majority: Finally, The Democrats Are Taking Action On Important Legislation!

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With less than seven weeks to the midterm elections, the Obama Administration is coming out swinging, ready to assert the power of the majority, something the Republicans know how to do when they are the majority!

With the threat that the Republicans might regain the majority, the Democrats are finally moving to take action that may not succeed, but will at least show their intentions!

A small business bill has made it through the Senate, with the help of two “Georges” who are not seeking reelection, and have broken with the Republican filibuster. Senator George Voinovich of Ohio and Senator George LeMieux of Florida broke the filibuster on the legislation, making it a 61-38 vote to pass the bill.

Meanwhile, a Pentagon appropriations bill next week will be the moment where the Democrats in the Senate try to push through the end of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” in the military, and also push through the DREAM Act, which would allow children of illegal immigrants who are in the US through no action of their own, but arrived before age 16, have lived here for at least five years, have graduated high school, and have been in college for two years or served two years in the military, to become American citizens!

It is possible that the GOP will block passasge, but if so, it can be used as a campaign issue against them! It is long overdue for the Democrats to play hardball, and not worry about bipartisanship and cooperation since the Republican Party clearly declared war on the Obama Administration on Day One!

It is time for action on gay rights and immigration, and even though the Democrats have a low rating on their Congressional performance in Gallup polls, the GOP has an even lower score, so let them continue to bottleneck and blockade, and they will, hopefully, suffer at the polls on November 2!