This author has stated in the past couple of weeks that the US Senate would stay Democratic, and that seems more certain now than ever.
With any gain by Mitt Romney in polls stopped by Hurricane Sandy and the working of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with President Barack Obama, it seems likely that the Democrats will win what was predicted before, a one seat gain. In some states, the popularity of the Democratic Senate candidate might actually carry Obama over the top, rather than the other way around.
So here are my final projections:
The Republicans have ten seats up for election, and will keep six–but lose in Arizona, with Democrat Richard Carmona defeating Republican Jeff Flake; in Indiana, with Democrat Joe Donnelly defeating Republican Richard Mourdock; in Maine, with Independent Angus King defeating his two opponents in the major parties; and in Massachusetts, where Democrat Elizabeth Warren will defeat Scott Brown.
The Democrats have 23 seats up for reelection, and should keep eleven without any trouble, leaving 12 up for play, and are likely to win five others that are in contention—Bill Nelson in Florida; Debbie Stebanow in Michigan; Claire McCaskill in Missouri; Jon Tester in Montana; and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
That leaves seven seats which will definitely have a new Senator–and Virginia should see Democrat Tim Kaine defeat Republican George Allen; Democrat Chris Murphy win over Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut; Democrat Tammy Baldwin defeat Republican Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin; and Democrat Mazie Hirono defeat Republican Linda Lingle in Hawaii.
However, three other Democratic seats will probably be lost, regrettably—including Democrat Bob Kerrey losing to Republican Deb Fischer, a Tea Party favorite in Nebraska; Democrat Martin Heinrich losing to Republican Heather Wilson in New Mexico; and Democrat Heidi Heitkamp losing to Republican Rick Berg in North Dakota.
So this all adds up to four seats taken from the Republicans, but three seats taken from the Democrats, so that adds up to a Senate of:
54 Democrats (including Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine)
46 Republicans
So therefore a ONE SEAT gain by the Democrats!