Day: November 17, 2012

The Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign For 2016 Begins Without Her Approval!

Somehow, one must imagine that Hillary Clinton, privately, is both having sighs of exasperation, and also chuckling at the same time, that here she is, an esteemed Secretary of State, who has made it clear that she wants to retire from public life in 2013, and does not want to run for President, and yet the boom is on for her to run, making her the most wooed reluctant nominee in American history!

Her husband, Bill Clinton, is, certainly, doing everything he can to boost her candidacy, while saying it is up to her.

At the same time, the Buffalo News has editorially endorsed her for President; and now, billionaire Warren Buffett, has also announced his support for her running for the Presidency.

It must be a very rewarding experience to have such a pursuit beginning, just a week after the President of the United States, Barack Obama, who was her rival in 2008, became an official “lame duck”!

Of course, it is not as if the rest of the Democratic Party, including Vice President Joe Biden, is going to lie down and drop dead, and agree this quickly to her being the Democratic nominee for President in 2016.

But there can be no question as to her popularity, her competence, her experience, and the fact she would make an exciting, dynamic President, were she to run and win!

And the Republican Party has to be having nightmares as to how they would deal with Hillary Clinton as their potential opponent in 2016!

The Reality Of The Next Decade: Split Government Control!

It is now clear that our political system is facing a long period, probably at least a decade, of split government control on the national level!

The Democratic Party has a long term edge with the electorate, as a result of the two Barack Obama Presidential victories, with the only difference being the loss in 2012 of Indiana and North Carolina.

But with the growing Hispanic and Latino population in Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, the likelihood of those states turning “blue’ from “red” over this decade, is becoming more likely, and with that manifestation, the Electoral College situation will become much more one sided than it is now, and yet still allow for some states to wander over to the other side without affecting a Democratic victory for the White House.

Additionally, with the surprise gain in seats by the Democrats in the US Senate, only losing one state, Nebraska, and gaining Maine, Massachusetts, and Indiana in return, and more Republican seats up for reelection in 2014, the likelihood of the Senate staying majority Democratic for the long term, continues to grow.

However, with the gerrymandering of seats by Republican legislatures and Governors in 2010, even though the Democrats won more votes for the US House of Representatives, the Republicans were able to hold on to the majority, although reduced by about eight seats. The Democrats will have trouble gaining 17 seats or more because of the gerrymandering, and even if they do gain a slight edge, could easily lose it two or four years after winning the majority.

So the likelihood of a Democratic President, Democratic Senate, and a Republican House becomes more a normal situation until at least the next reapportionment of seats after the 2020 Census, and the Presidential and Congressional Elections of that year, but with the advantage that 2020 is a Presidential year, while 2010 was not.

So this means the odds of a long range stalemate and gridlock in American politics are clear cut!