“Blue” States

If Only Women Had Voted In The Presidential Election–Biden 462, Trump 76!

The ultimate misogynist in the Presidency, Donald Trump, helped to defeat himself in the Presidential Election of 2020, by having massive margins of women of all colors vote against him.

So if only women had ben able to vote, Joe Biden would have won 462 electoral votes and 37 states, while Donald Trump would have won 76 electoral votes from 13 states, but actually losing two Nebraska votes of the five that state has.

The states Trump would have won are:

West Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Arkansas
Louisiana
Oklahoma
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Wyoming
Utah
Idaho

This is amazing, meaning Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas, all aspired to by Joe Biden but won by Donald Trump, would have gone to the Democrats if only women could have voted.

Additionally, such strong Republican “Red” states as Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Mississippi, Kansas, Montana, and even Alaska, and two districts, rather than one in Nebraska, would have gone Blue!

Fascinating Electoral Map Of Americans 18-40 Shows Bright Future For Democrats, Gloom For Republicans!

The Atlantic Magazine has just published an electoral map based solely on American expected voters ages 18-40, known as Millennials (born 1980-1996) and Generation Z (1997-2012) with those born from 1997-2002 able to vote in the Presidential Election of 2020!

It is astounding in detail, as if it pans out and is true, it means a bright future for Democrats, and gloom for Republicans!

According to this electoral map, Joe Biden has 295 electoral votes locked up among those under 40; and 63 more likely; and 70 less likely but favored, for a grand total of 428 electoral votes!

Donald Trump has 49 electoral votes insured, with 44 other electoral votes highly likely, and 17 electoral votes undecided, so it would be a grand total of 110 electoral votes, or 93 insured, with Utah and Indiana questionable.

That last fact is shocking, as one would think Utah would be insured Republican, and Indiana as well, particularly with Vice President Mike Pence being from the Hoosier State.

The Biden states have dark blue for such states as Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, all four states having gone for Trump in 2016.

Interestingly, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, and Arizona are all medium blue, making them likely strongly Democratic by lesser amounts now and in the future, and all Trump states in 2016. Additionally, Virginia, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 is also medium blue.

Georgia, Texas, Montana, and imagine this, Alaska are all light blue, a good sign for the future as well! But so is Missouri, which few see as going back to the Democrats, after having lost their status as a “reliable” state to be with the winner, starting in 2008 and continuing through 2016. As much as the first two states listed are seen as long shots, the last three are even more so, in theory!

Looking at the Trump states, 15 in total, we have West Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Oklahoma as strongest, while South Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, North Dakota, Kansas, Wyoming and Idaho are weaker in support among young people.

So, in conclusion, 33 states for Biden, 15 for Trump, and 2 probably Trump but not certain, mirroring what seems to make sense for the national election, with the only real surprises being Alaska and Missouri, and possibly Indiana and Utah, in the estimate of this scholar and blogger!

The “Red State” Governors Presiding Over Major Disaster Because Of Refusal To Enforce Mask And Other Limits: The Downfall Of Trump Strongholds!

What began as a primarily “Blue State” health crisis has now hit Southern and Western states, what are known as “Red States”, as hard, and in many cases, harder than New York and New Jersey and other states that vote Democratic.

The governors of these states, particularly Brian Kemp of Georgia, Ron DeSantis of Florida, Greg Abbott of Texas, and Doug Ducey of Arizona, can be blamed for this by their lax policies on dealing with the CoronaVirus Pandemic.

This is specifically the issue of face masks being mandated, and since they have not been, the disease has spread like wildfire, causing mass loss of life, and alarming increases in cases.

Donald Trump’s refusal to set a national standard is also causing this crisis, which will destroy the Trump reelection bid, but he has refused, as them, to promote a unified approach.

Donald Trump strongholds will see many Trump supporters dying, but sadly, also those who hate Trump and the Republican Party.

But the Republican Party will pay the price in the fall and in the future, as it now seems possible Trump will lose all of these four states, and also Senate and House seats.

People suffering and dying is not a winning strategy for the Republican Party, which could now be called the Party of Death, not of Life!

Pandemic Now Affecting Sun Belt “Red” States, Not “Blue” States, And Yet Trump Ignores It And Refuses To Wear Face Mask As Example To Americans!

The COVID-19 Pandemic is raging in the Sun Belt, more furious than ever, the so called “Red” states, including Florida, Texas, and Arizona, while before it was more manifested in the Northeast and the Pacific Coast, so called “Blue” states.

But Donald Trump is ignoring the pandemic, which has killed 125,000 Americans in four months, more than World War I, or more than Vietnam and Korea combined!

He continues to refuse to set an example of the importance of wearing a face mask, and has, in a grievous manner, held political rallies in Oklahoma, Arizona and Wisconsin, and intends to do more such rallies, and is exposing thousands to the potential of spreading the virus.

This includes dozens of Secret Service agents, which demonstrates his lack of respect even for those who protect him!

Donald Trump is a total failure in this crisis, and will go down as responding worse than even Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression or James Buchanan in the pre Civil War years!

Two Outliers: Republican Governors In Heavily Democratic States—Larry Hogan In Maryland And Charlie Baker In Massachusetts

In the midst of highly partisan elections being the norm in America under Donald Trump, we have the two outliers that are hard to explain.

In Maryland and Massachusetts, two heavily “Blue” states, we have very popular moderate Republican governors on their way to easy reelection victories.

Maryland, a heavily Democratic state, with strong backing from those living in the Washington DC suburbs, Larry Hogan has a 68 percent rating in his popular support, and is way ahead of Ben Jealous, the African American Democratic nominee for Governor, who was former head of the NAACP. Barack Obama twice and Hillary Clinton won the last three Presidential races by 25 to 26 points in each of those contests.

But somehow, Hogan is seen as an easy victor for a second term. He has 65 percent approval from Democrats, 64 percent backing from Independents, and 81 percent support from Republicans. Hogan has avoided being supportive of Donald Trump, and in fact, has been clearly critical of the President.

Every poll shows Hogan winning, as high as 58 percent, with a undecided percentage being as high as 10-18 percent in some polls, indicating the likelihood that Hogan will win a landslide victory of more than 60 percent in November. Hogan has had to deal with a heavily two thirds Democratic legislature and a Congressional delegation (7 Democrats to one Republican) dominated by Democrats.

Massachusetts, another heavily Democratic state, and a heavily (80 percent) Democratic legislature, and an all Democratic Congressional delegation, yet has had Republican Charlie Baker as its governor for the past four years, and in polls, Baker is ahead of his Hispanic Democratic opponent, Jay Gonzalez, by margins of 52 to 68 percent, depending on the poll. Barack Obama won by 26 and 23 percent, and Hillary Clinton by 27 points in the last three Presidential elections.

Baker has also shown himself to be a moderate Republican who has been regularly critical of Donald Trump, and has had as high as a 71 percent majority of popularity in his term of office, higher even than Larry Hogan in Maryland. One can assume that he will win two thirds or more of the vote on November 6.

So both Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker are outliers, on the way to what is conceived as a “Blue Wave”.

Key Republicans To Defeat: Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, Marsha Blackburn For Senate, And Scott Walker For Governor

As the midterm elections get closer, this blogger sees four key Republicans that he hopes will be defeated, as he considers them the worst of the worst of all Republicans running for office.

In ranked order, the first would be Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who this blogger thought was more dangerous than even Donald Trump during the 2016 Presidential campaign. Cruz is a true monster, a very evil force, hated even by Republicans, due to his arrogance and cockiness and his despicable voting record. El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke is running a very close race against Cruz, and there are many who think that even “Red” Texas is ready to be flipped to the Democrats and O’Rourke, as part of a growing belief that Texas will be “Blue” in future years. Nothing would satisfy this blogger more than to see Cruz retired from the Senate.

Second on the list would be Florida Governor Rick Scott, leaving the Governorship, but running for the US Senate against Democrat Bill Nelson. Scott has been a horrible Governor, and should have been in federal prison for Medicare and Medicaid fraud, and his eight years as Florida Governor have been a horror, setting Florida back, and making Jeb Bush look far better by comparison. He has doubled his wealth despite a blind trust, and is outspending Nelson, but polls indicate the election is close, and this man should not be given a Senate seat, and the fact that he won two terms as Governor by very small margins gives hope that Nelson can pull it out, hopefully on the coattails of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum.

Third on the list would be Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker, who is after Scott the most disgraceful governor in the past eight years, doing great harm to the past progressive image of the state of the La Follettes, Gaylord Nelson, William Proxmire, and other reform oriented leaders that made Wisconsin a leader in reform. Walker is another arrogant, cocky leader who richly deserves being retired. The Democrats have nominated the State Superintendent of Instruction Tony Evers, and the race is close, based on public opinion polls.

Finally, on this short list is Tennessee Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn, giving up her certain House seat to run for an open Senate seat in Tennessee, created by the retirement of Senator Bob Corker. Blackburn is an obnoxious, insufferable person, as annoying as former Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann was in her years in the House of Representatives. Blackburn, however, has a tough competition in former Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen, who is ahead of her by a good margin, and hopefully, Bredesen, extremely popular, will soundly defeat Marsha Blackburn.

If all four of these Republicans could be defeated, it would be as if one was in heaven, and right now, there is a good chance that all four will lose out, to the benefit of Texas, Florida, Wisconsin, Tennessee, and the nation at large. Additionally, any plans in the future for Cruz or Walker to run for President again, or for Scott to plan to do so, would be gone, if they lose reelection in the case of Cruz and Walker, or election for Scott.

State Politics Much More Complicated Than Often Realized: The Cases Of New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Texas, California

Anyone who follows American politics historically and contemporarily often seems unaware of the complexity of state politics around the nation.

We hear discussion of “Blue” states and “Red” states, but state politics is much more complicated that that.

Gerrymandering often distorts the reality of political loyalties in many states, and also the reality of about one third of voters being “Independent”, rather than loyal to Democrats or Republicans.

There are many examples of this across the nation, particularly noticeable in larger, more populated states.

Just a few examples:

New York State is often thought to be strongly Democratic, but not true in the state legislature, and New York City is vastly different in political culture from upstate New York areas, such as Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Even Long Island, Nassau and Suffolk Counties, often reflect different views than the five boroughs of New York City, and within New York City, Staten Island, is vastly different from Manhattan, the Bronx, and Brooklyn, with Queens County more balanced than the other boroughs in the city.

Pennsylvania is a state where gerrymandering has given the Republicans until now a great advantage, but new court ordered mandates may change that balance in Congress and the state legislature. Philadelphia has a very different political orientation than western Pennsylvania, often called “Alabama” outside of the city of Pittsburgh.

Virginia is well known to have a very liberal Democratic northern section (often called NoVa), reflecting the influence of being the Washington DC suburbs, while much of the rest of the state is reliably conservative and Republican.

Florida is strongly Democratic in the southern counties, particularly Broward and Palm Beach Counties, with somewhat less so in Miami Dade County due to the influence of Cuban Americans, but even that is diminishing, since it is now 60 years since the rise of Fidel Castro, and those directly affected negatively by Castro, are mostly no longer part of the population in Miami. At the same time, Central Florida is the real battleground in the state, the area that decides most elections. North Florida is much like Alabama or Georgia, its neighbors.

Ohio is strongly Democratic in the northern and central sections, particularly in Cleveland and Toledo, and the capital of Columbus, but in the more rural parts and in southern Ohio, near Kentucky, including Cincinnati, it is strongly Republican.

Illinois is dominated by Chicago in the northern part, but down state Illinois is much more Republican in orientation.

Michigan has Detroit as strongly Democratic but in western and northern Michigan, it is much more rural and Republican.

Texas has Democratic strongholds in the state capitol, Austin, and in Houston, while other portions of this very large state, including the rural areas, are strongly Republican.

California has Democratic strongholds in San Francisco and Los Angeles, but the Central Valley, San Diego, and cities like Bakersfield, where House Majority Leader and possible next Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy resides, are strongly Republican.

The next race for the Speaker of the House could be between two Californians of totally different mentalities–Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco and Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield.

A basic reality is that urban areas are always much more likely to be Democratic while rural areas are certain to be more Republican.

Suburban areas are what often decides the politics of a state and in Congress and the Presidential election, as they are the balancing force that determines a state vote, and recently it seems clear the suburban areas, often Republican, are starting to move away from that long time loyalty.

The Key To A Majority Of Democrats In House Of Representatives: Gains In New York, New Jersey, Virginia, Illinois, California

Five “Blue” States for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats have a total of 42 seats of Republicans in the House of Representatives—New York, New Jersey, Virginia, Illinois, California.

All of these states, except Illinois, presently have Democratic Governors, with Bruce Rauner in great trouble in trying to win reelection in Illinois, including the possible Democratic challenger being Chris Kennedy, one of the sons of Robert F. Kennedy.

Five out of nine in New York; four out of five in New Jersey; four out of seven in Virginia; four out of seven in Illinois; and eight out of fourteen in California—these are the vulnerable seats, a total of 25, with the Democrats needing 24 seats to gain majority control of the House of Representatives.

Not all will be won, of course, but some of these Republicans have decided not to seek reelection, which makes their seats even more likely to switch. Altogether, 25 of the 42 seats that are presently Republican in these five states are in play.

of course, there are many other vulnerable seats for Republicans, but if a high percentage of these seats in the five “Blue” states go Democratic, then it is assured that the Democrats will gain majority control in November 2018.

Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania also have contested seats that could go Democratic, so the real battleground is the five “Blue” states and these three states that went to Donald Trump.

The Fifty States And Educational Levels

A new 2018 survey of education in the 50 states reveals the following:

The top ten states are found in New England and the Middle Atlantic states primarily–with Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont and New Hampshire in New England; Maryland, New Jersey and Virginia in the Middle Atlantic area, with Virginia greatly influenced by the educational level of its Northern Virginia suburbs outside of Washington, DC; and also the states of Minnesota in the Midwest, Colorado in the Rocky Mountain West, and Washington State on the Pacific Coast. All of these top ten states were Democratic states in 2016.

States, including California, Florida and Texas rank lower on educational attainment because of large numbers of immigrants with lower accomplishments due to language barriers, but are rated higher in quality of education ranking. New York, Illinois, Delaware, Oregon and Hawaii are among the states which are ranked in the second ten best states, all Democratic states in 2016.

Meanwhile, the ten lowest states in educational levels are all Southern States, except for Nevada, Oklahoma and New Mexico—Mississippi, West Virginia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee, not at all surprising. All of these ten were Republican states in 2016, except for Nevada and New Mexico.

Notice that the higher educated states are “Blue”, while the lower educated states are “Red”, and this is the basic split within the nation–the educated vs the poorly educated.

Republicans, Normally States Rights Advocates, Now Trying To Limit States Rights On Sanctuary Cities, Marijuana Laws, And Oil And Gas Drilling!

The Republican Party is long famous for promotion of states rights, and their strong stand against national government authority over the states.

Oh, until now, when they are doing their best to LIMIT states rights.

The Trump Administration and the Republicans in Congress are working to undermine “sanctuary cities”, major cities around the nation which are working to protect and support undocumented immigrants from arrest and deportation, as long as they have no criminal record.

Also, with eight states allowing marijuana use, and medical marijuana permitted in many other states, we have Attorney General Jeff Sessions and the Trump Administration trying to promote enforcement of penalties, that has led to tens of thousands of people in prisons, for possession and or sale of the drug, when there is no connection between marijuana and crime, or auto accidents, or deaths.

Also, oil and gas drilling off the coasts of the United States, is an attempt to take away environmental rights of mostly “blue” states, but with Florida, under Republican Governor Rick Scott getting special dispensation on the matter, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie working with Democrats to prevent such drilling off of New Jersey shores. But all the other states, along the Atlantic Coast, from New England to Georgia; the Pacific Coast; and Alaska should also have the freedom and authority to ban such energy exploration as detrimental to the environment.

When one compares the “Red” States and how they are governed, to the “Blue” states and their greater progress and open mindedness, it is as if we have two nations, and the Republicans are becoming so extreme that a chasm has developed between them and the Democrats.