Wes Moore Maryland

Governorship Term Limits Likely To Affect Future Presidential Campaigns

The American Presidency was limited in allowable terms of office by the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution in 1951, after passage by Congress in 1947, two years after Franklin D. Roosevelt, elected to a fourth term in the White House, died 82 days into that fourth term.

So even popular Presidents such as Dwight D. Eisenhower in the 1950s, Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, and Barack Obama in the 2010s, could not have returned to the Presidency at any point after their two terms in office.

The issue of term limits also affects state governorships, as 23 states limit governors to two terms maximum consecutive terms. Three other states allow a return after one four year term away from the governorship, and one allows a return after two four year terms away from the governorship. And nine states have a lifetime limit of two terms.

So a total of 36 states limit gubernatorial terms in some form. And one state (Virginia) limits any governor to one term.

So only 13 states have no term limits, including Vermont and New Hampshire, which have terms of two years, not four years!

So when one analyzes these realities, it means governors such as the following, would have to be considered potential Presidential contenders in the future!

Ron DeSantis of Florida
Jared Polis of Colorado
Gavin Newsom of California
Brian Kemp of Georgia
Andy Beshear of Kentucky
Wes Moore of Maryland
Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan
Phil Murphy of New Jersey
Roy Cooper of North Carolina
Doub Burgum of North Dakota
Mike DeWine of Ohio
Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania
Kristi Noem of South Dakota
Glenn Youngkin of Virginia

All of the above 14, 6 Republicans and 8 Democrats, would be out of the governorship, or finishing a second term by the time of the Presidential Election of 2028.

Besides Republicans DeSantis and Burgum, who are already seeking the Presidency, there are strong rumors that other Republican Governors, Youngkin and Noem, might enter the race belatedly, and Kemp and DeWine are long shots for now or 2028!

And certainly, Democrats on this list are not running in 2024, due to Joe Biden, but certainly, it would seem likely that Polis, Newsom, Moore, Whitmer, Murphy, and Shapiro are all likely to plan to run in 2028. Less likely would be Beshear and Cooper, but being from states that Democrats have more difficulty winning, who can say they would not enter the race for President in 2028?

Four Really Likeable Democratic Politicians: Potential Future Presidential Contenders!

When one examines the members of Congress and the governorships, it is clear that only a small number are really likeable human beings.

Many politicians are effective, but do not make one feel close to them, as compassion and empathy are rare commodities.

If asked who does this author and blogger see as having compassion and empathy, and coming across as warm personalities that enthuse him, this would be the list in no special order, all Democrats!

Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy (age 50)

Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff (age 36)

Maryland Governor Wes Moore (age 44)

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (age 50)

All four of the above are young, potential future leaders and candidates for the Presidency.

Thoughts about this list, and suggestions for modifications are welcome!

Republican Governors Vs Democratic Governors: The Future Battles!

As one looks ahead to future political battles, one cannot ignore the growing role of Republican governors being challenged by Democratic governors, usually a “fraternity” in which the members share a “camaraderie”, but not so in 2023, 2024, and beyond!

A number of former or sitting Republican governors are seen as likely to seek the Presidency, and even those who are not seeking to “move up” are engaged in “culture wars”.

Meanwhile, Democratic governors seem unlikely to enter the Presidential race for 2024, standing by while President Joe Biden moves to run for a second term, but they are “backups” in case the situation changes, and are certainly to be seen as part of the long term future of the Democratic Party, even more than sitting members of the US Senate.

The list of Republican governors includes Ron DeSantis of Florida; Greg Abbott of Texas; Kristi Noem of South Dakota; Glenn Youngkin of Virginia; Brian Kemp of Georgia; Chris Sununu of New Hampshire; and former Governors Larry Hogan of Maryland and Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas.

The Democratic list of the Governorships has potential future Presidential contenders, including Gavin Newsom of California; J. B. Pritzker of Illinois; Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan; Jared Polis of Colorado; Jay Inslee of Washington; Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania; Wes Moore of Maryland; Phil Murphy of New Jersey; Andy Beshear of Kentucky; and Roy Cooper of North Carolina.

Never have we had so many state governors seen as potential Presidential contenders, with the reminder that in the past 100 years, we have had the following Presidents who were state governors: Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush.

Two New Inaugurated Democratic Governors Give Us Hope For Future!

This week saw the inaugurations of two new young Democratic Governors in the Northeast-Mid Atlantic area, and both represent great hopes for the future.

In Maryland, a state which has advanced in the areas of race and gender more than most states, we saw the inauguration of an African American governor, Wes Moore, formerly head of the Robin Hood Foundation, a Rhodes Scholar, and serving in the war in Afghanistan. He is only the third African American governor in US History, and is very inspiring and charismatic at age 44.

And in Pennsylvania, we saw former state Attorney General, and newly inaugurated Governor Josh Shapiro, who is equally inspiring, and is seen by some as the first Jewish President in the future, take over leadership of a crucial state in the Electoral College past, present, and future. He is 49 years old and offers great potential in the future beyond the governorship.

So while there is so much cynicism and negativism about American politics among many Americans, there is indeed a sense of hope for the future!

Democratic State Governors To Watch, As Future Of Party!

Any concern about the future of the Democratic Party is gone, as once Joe Biden has become President for a second term, or decides not to run, opening up potential for other Democrats, the party has a “bench” of fantastic governors who care about public health and safety, and who are compassionate and empathetic human beings.

This is in reference to the following Democratic state governors, no special order:

Gavin Newsom of California
J B. Pritzker of Illinois
Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania
Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan
Wes Moore of Maryland
Jared Polis of Colorado
Laura Kelly of Kansas

At least the first five listed are potential Presidential contenders in the future, and with Pritzker and Shapiro being Jewish; Whitmer (along with Kelly) being female; Moore being African American; Polis being gay; and Newsom being an original promoter of gay rights and gay marriage.

At the same time, the Republicans have potential Presidential contenders, who are more concerned about being nasty, vicious, divisive, confrontational, and have no concern about public health and safety, including:

Ron DeSantis of Florida
Greg Abbott of Texas
Kristi Noem of South Dakota

There is also Chris Sununu of New Hampshire (an exception, not as extreme and confrontational as the other three listed).

Of course, there are also soon to be former governor Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas; and former governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, who are more like Chris Sununu.

Additionally, soon to be former governors Larry Hogan of Maryland and Charlie Baker of Massachusetts come across as more decent, but like Hutchinson and Christie, unlikely to get very far in the Presidential race for 2024!

Projections On Midterm Elections Of 2022

Here we are, a day before the Midterm Elections of 2022, so it is time to project the results, with trepidation about what is likely to happen tomorrow.

The odds are heavily in favor of the Republicans winning the House of Representatives, since they only need to gain five seats, so sadly, my projection is that they will gain about 20 seats, giving them an edge of about 15 seats–so a balance of about 232-203.

The Senate will remain Democratic in my estimate, with the following results:

Retention of presently held Democratic seats:

Mark Kelly, Arizona
Raphael Warnock, Georgia
Maggie Hassan, New Hampshire

However, the loss of Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada!

Open Seats Gained by Democrats:

Tim Ryan, Ohio
John Fetterman, Pennsylvania
Mandela Barnes, Wisconsin

The end result would be 52 Democrats and Independents and 48 Republicans!

In the Governorships, Democrats gain seats:

Wes Moore, Maryland
Maura Healey, Massachusetts
Beto O’Rourke, Texas

So we would end up with 25 Democrats and 25 Republicans as Governors of their states.

So the elections will be a mixed bag, with both Democrats and Republicans able to claim vindication.

Sadly, however, Florida will remain strongly Republican both for the US Senate and the Governorship.

The Midterm Elections of 2022 will be seen as a “Red Ripple”, with less of a repudiation of Joe Biden than it was for earlier Presidents who saw much greater losses!

Potential Future Presidential Candidates If They Win Office On Tuesday

There are a number of Democrats running for the US Senate or the Governorships who can be seen long term as potential future Presidential candidates if they win on Tuesday.

They would include the following:

Tim Ryan running for the Senate in Ohio
Mandela Barnes running for the Senate in Wisconsin

Josh Shapiro running for the Governorship in Pennsylvania
Wes Moore running for the Governorship in Maryland
Gretchen Whitmer running for the Governorship in Michigan (reelection)
J B Pritzker running for the Governorship in Illinois (reelection)
Gavin Newsom running for the Governorship in California (reelection)
Beto O’Rourke running for the Governorship in Texas