Month: October 2012

Five Republican Senate Seats In Danger Of Being Won By Democrats In 2012

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The usual political line is that the Democrats are in danger of losing control of the Senate, with 23 Democratic or Independent seats up for election in 2012, as compared to only 10 Republican seats.

But actually, five of the ten GOP Senate seats are in play, with Republicans on the defensive!

This includes:

Maine—where retiring Senator Olympia Snowe seems likely to be replaced by Independent Angus King, former Governor of the state, thought to be likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins, based on greater agreement with Democratic principles.

Massachusetts—where Senator Scott Brown, who replaced Ted Kennedy in 2010, is behind in many polls to consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren, in a state so strongly Democratic that Brown’s victory in 2010 was seen as an outlier.

Indiana—where retiring Senator Richard Lugar may be replaced by Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly , because the GOP nominee, Richard Mourdock, has been labeled a Tea Party extremist, unwilling to work across the aisle with Democrats.

Nevada—where appointed Senator Dean Heller is having a rough race against long term Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley.

Arizona—where Senator Jon Kyl is retiring, but the Republican nominee, Jeff Flake, is facing a surprisingly tough battle against Democrat Richard Carmona. former Surgeon General of the United States. Carmona has a distinguished law enforcement and medical career, and is seen as having a really good chance to replace Kyl, and being Hispanic (Puerto Rican) in Arizona is certainly a positive, as well as his biography.

If one had to put betting money on these five races, it would be a good bet that Maine, Massachusetts, and Arizona will go Democratic in Senate races, with Indiana and Nevada tougher races.

That would mean a three seat gain for the Democrats, making it much tougher for Republicans to become a majority, as then they would need at least six to seven Democratic held seats out of 12 seats seen as in play, with 11 others of the total 23 seats seen as NOT in play!

An analysis of Democratic seats in contention will follow in the coming days!

Joe Biden Shows “Cajones”, And Right Wing Goes Nuts: Sore Losers!

Ronald 2 Comments

Vice President Joe Biden showed last night that he had “cajones”, in his debate with Paul Ryan, and the right wing is going nuts, demonstrating that they are sore losers!

Fox News Channel and other right wing spokesmen are furious because Biden laughed, smirked, gestured, ridiculed, and interrupted Paul Ryan, due to the fact that Ryan was making ridiculous statements, full of lies and deceptions!

Biden was supposedly disrespectful, rude and condescending, according to these right wingers, but if one looks back at the past four years, there have been innumerable such displays visited upon President Obama and Democrats in general, and now FINALLY, the gutsy, courageous Vice President decided to give the Republicans a dose of their own medicine!

The right wing only likes it when they can go on the attack, but cannot take the same attack when it is visited against them! They are crybabies and wimps, and a pitiful example of what the conservative movement has become in America! All it is interested in is rhetorical assassination of the character and principles of our President and Vice President, because they have no alternative case that does anything other than to continue to help the super rich at the expense of the middle class and the poor!

The answer is for Barack Obama to adopt similar tactics to those of Joe Biden, and no longer be turning the other cheek. No more MR NICE GUY, because sadly, but in truth, NICE GUYS FINISH LAST!

It is time to go on the offense, and dish out what Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have been doing all along. There is no need to apologize for supporting what is best for the vast majority of the American people.

It is time to say to Mitt Romney’s face, in the next two debates, that he is a liar and a deceiver, and to make clear that the President is taking off the gloves, and is ready to fight for what he believes in, and to defend his record in office without shame!

This is a winning strategy, and the right wing knows it, which is why they are so furious at Joe Biden!

The Biden-Ryan Debate: One Of The Most Memorable Debates In History!

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The Joe Biden-Paul Ryan debate last night will go down in history as one of the most memorable, most lively, most stimulating debates in the history of Presidential and Vice Presidential debates. The two men were aggressive and challenging toward each other, and kept the pace of the debate going well, with the excellent assistance of moderator Martha Raddatz!

With most observers seeing a fairly even division as to who won, a lot of it based on one’s own ideological leanings, one can say both candidates came across as intelligent, knowledgeable and competent to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency.

Ryan can be seen as another life long public servant in national politics, entering Congress at age 28, similar to Joe Biden entering Congress at age 30. The two men are diametric opposites, but certainly have the equal ability to stir their bases, and one could imagine Ryan having a long career in Congress and being a factor in Presidential politics for the long term future, similar to what Biden has had in his long career of distinction.

Since both stir animosity in the opposition, and each is very willing to be confrontational in a pleasant manner, one must wonder if either could ever win the White House, but it is not impossible to imagine the two men facing each other four years from now in the Presidential Election of 2016. Stranger things have happened—such as:

Richard Nixon coming back from defeat in 1960 to be elected in 1968.
Jimmy Carter coming from oblivion to be elected in 1976.
Ronald Reagan, after being defeated for the nomination in 1976, coming back to be elected at the oldest age first term of any President in 1980.
Bill Clinton coming back from revelation of a sex scandal to be elected in 1992.
George W. Bush winning the Presidency based on a disputed election count in 2000.
Barack Obama, coming out of “nowhere”, to become our first African American President in 2008.

Paul Ryan: Does He Have A Future In Presidential Politics?

Ronald 3 Comments

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, the Republican Vice Presidential nominee, received the most exposure he has ever had in the Vice Presidential debate last night.

Sadly, he told 24 myths in 40 minutes, and seemed uncomfortable at times, but considering his challenging one of the most experienced and qualified Vice Presidents in history, Joe Biden, he certainly came across as competent and able to hold his own in debate. Compared to other Republican Vice Presidential nominees, including Sarah Palin 2008 and Dan Quayle in 1988 and 1992, he came across well enough.

Does Ryan have a future in Presidential politics? The answer is most assuredly yes, as even if he loses with Mitt Romney 25 days from now, he has comported himself well enough, for his base in the Republican Party, to be a likely front runner for the GOP nomination for President in 2016.

Whether with his ideas and ideology he could actually win the Presidency is much in doubt, but at least he did not make a fool of himself, so likely will be heard from again, assuming he does not lose his Wisconsin Congressional seat next month.

Joe Biden Boosts Chances For Presidential Nomination In 2016!

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Vice President Joe Biden boosted his chances for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2016 with his debate performance last night.

Already one of the most colorful, charismatic politicians in national government as it is, Biden demonstrated that, although he will be 70 in November, he is far from “over the hill”, and cannot be dismissed as a potential future President!

This is a man of heart, of convictions, of passion, of principle, and is well liked as a man who will not back off in a time of challenge!

While some, particularly Republicans. certainly dislike Biden, the Vice President’s good humor and ability to respond to Paul Ryan, who could be his son, has to make many admire him as a very alert, brilliant man, who has once again proved his value to President Obama, and the reality that he has added stature and prestige to the office of Vice President of the United States!

Joe Biden Comes Through: Clear Cut Win Over Paul Ryan With Facts And Legitimacy!

Ronald 3 Comments

Vice President Joe Biden did what he had to do—revive the Obama campaign after last week’s less than stellar performance!

Biden won on substance and on facts, and his statements were legitimate!

And his mastery of foreign policy was clear, and he was aggressive in a way that put Paul Ryan on the defensive several times, and made Ryan seem uncomfortable!

Biden proved once again that he is a master debater, and a brilliant man, a person who we can be comfortable with as a heartbeat away from the Presidency!

More commentary will follow tomorrow, as the debate is digested!

The State Of The Electoral College 26 Days Before The Election: Obama Wins By More Narrow Margin!

Ronald 2 Comments

There has been a lot of hysteria and panic about Barack Obama, as a result of his sub par performance in the first Presidential debate last week.

But even before the Vice Presidential debate tonight between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, and next Tuesday’s second Presidential debate between Obama and Mitt Romney, when one thinks clearly and calms down, it is clear that Barack Obama is going to win the election, and that the Electoral College, which elects our Presidents, is favorable to him.

This has been discussed before by this blogger, and certainly the math of the Electoral College is in flux, but still the odds are heavily in favor or Obama winning!

Let’s start with the reality, that Obama has 237 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, and anyone who hallucinates that somehow, the states that he is seen as having certain in his camp will magically switch to Romney, needs a dose of reality!

Obama will win the entire Northeast (except possibly New Hampshire); Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota in the Midwest; New Mexico; the Pacific Coast; and Hawaii. This is a total of 18 states and the District of Columbia. No money is being spent by the Romney campaign in these states, as Romney alienated Michigan in calling for the bankruptcy of the auto industry, and Minnesota has never been seen as a state that was seriously a candidate to back Romney’s candidacy, although if former Governor Tim Pawlenty had been Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, Minnesota might have been in play!

Everyone talks about “swing states”, and yes, there are nine of those up for grabs, but in four of them, Obama is favored because the unemployment rate is lower than the national average—New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–with a total of 41 electoral votes, which if added to the 237 for Obama, becomes a grant total of 278 electoral votes, 8 more than needed.

Iowa is sixth lowest unemployment rate with 5.5%; New Hampshire is seventh lowest with 5.7%; Virginia is tenth lowest with 5.9 %; and Ohio is 20th lowest with 7.2%. Additionally, Wisconsin is 25th lowest with 7.5%—all five of these states under the national rate of 7.8%!

Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada have higher unemployment rates, and therefore can be seen as much more difficult for Obama to win, particularly after the “bump” in some polls for Romney after the first Presidential debate.

So let’s assume the latter four states, and even Wisconsin (as the home of Paul Ryan) go to Romney. It still is not enough, as the most he would have then would be 260 electoral votes, ten short of the number needed to win the Presidency!

The Electoral College numbers are still subject to change over the next 26 days, but it is safe to say, that the LOW point is 278 electoral votes for Barack Obama from a total of 22 states and the District of Columbia, with still the potential for Obama to win all nine of the ‘swing states”, rather than four, and a grand high total of 347 electoral votes to 191 for Mitt Romney!

Corporate Bully David Siegel Threatens To Fire Workers If Obama Wins: The Plutocracy Out Of Control!

Ronald 1 Comment

News has come that some corporate bullies, most notably David Siegel, owner of Westgate Resorts, the largest privately owned time share company in the world, has threatened to fire his workers if they do not vote for Mitt Romney in the upcoming election, and if Romney loses the election to Barack Obama. This could, in theory, affect the election results, and Robert Reich, former Secretary of Labor in the administration of Bill Clinton, has condemned it!

This is plutocracy run amuck, as somehow, people like Siegel seem to think they have a right to threaten their workers, as if they run a dictatorship!

There has to be some way to hold these corporate bullies accountable for their behavior, as they are nothing less than hoodlums in their approach to their work force, as if the workers are the slaves of their owners!

Slavery was outlawed in 1865, and we have passed labor laws and corporate regulations and taxes on the wealthy before, and we cannot allow corporate bullies to think they can do whatever they wish to their workers, and get away with such outrageous abuse!

The Tension Is Rising On The Vice Presidential Debate: Can Joe Biden “Save” Barack Obama And Himself From Likely Historic Oblivion If They Lose Election?

Ronald 5 Comments

Vice President Joe Biden, who has faced many crises in his life, has always been a man of principle and courage, and he now faces the greatest challenge of his entire political career: resuscitate the Obama-Biden Presidential ticket from possible historic oblivion if they lose the election 27 days from now!

It is sad, but true, that when Presidents lose reelection, they end up in the historical wilderness—not appreciated, to a great extent forgotten, taking generations for any historical recognition.

Ask John Adams, William Howard Taft, Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush–all of whom have not been treated well historically–because they came in between George Washington and Thomas Jefferson; Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson; and Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, in the cases of Adams, Taft and Bush, and before Ronald Reagan in the case of Carter, with Reagan being mythologized in a unrealistic way! Only Adams has finally been recognized, due to the work of David McCullough, as a President worthy of respect and admiration!

It would be a tremendous shame to history if the contributions of Barack Obama were to be relegated to the dustbin of history, particularly if much of what he has accomplished was reversed by a right wing Republican Congress and a President, Mitt Romney, who has no principles or beliefs beyond simply being President!

Pew Poll Shows Massive Swing To Romney: Is The Election Lost For Obama?

Ronald 4 Comments

The Pew Research Poll that came out yesterday is an alarming reminder that the Presidential Election Of 2012 is far from over, as Mitt Romney gained massively in many ways, and at least in this poll, is now ahead by 4 points over Barack Obama.

Is it time to panic? No, but it is a sign that Joe Biden MUST do well in the upcoming Vice Presidential debate against Paul Ryan on Thursday, and Obama MUST perform much better than his lackadaisical effort in the first Presidential debate last week, in the remaining two Presidential debates next week and the week after!.

Additionally, more effort must be made to demonstrate that Mitt Romney is a chameleon, which he most certainly is, and that one cannot trust that his sudden move to the middle is the true Romney, after a year of working hard to be considered, as he self described himself, as a “severe” conservative!

The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Obama ahead by five points, 50-45, as he was before the debate, which became a tie for two days after the debate, but then went back to its old numbers after the favorable jobs report on Friday.

It is clear that the polls are very volatile, and may reflect doubts by voters about who should be President, but a good performance by both Biden and Obama, along with accelerated efforts to show Romney as the liar that he is, is still likely to lead to the same result, with a majority of “swing” states in Obama’s camp, with only the need to win two to three of them to win the Electoral College majority.

More worrisome is how the Obama decline for now could affect House and Senate races, and possibly give the Republicans control of both houses of Congress in the worst scenario.

For these next four weeks, all those who want to insure an Obama and Democratic victory must put in gargantuan efforts to bring about the desired result!