Gallup Poll

17 Republican States, All South, Great Plains, And Mountain West, Live In Alternative Universe As Rabid Trump Supporters

Ronald 81 Comments

After six months in office, Donald Trump’s public opinion ratings languish at 36 percent in many polls, and no higher than 40 percent in any of the reputable polls.

But in a Gallup poll, we discover that there are three tiers of states–17 states who love Trump and give him a rating of 50 or higher; 16 states where his rating is 40-50 percent; and 17 states where his rating is below 40 percent, and as low as 26 percent.

The 17 states that love Trump are in the South, Great Plains, and Mountain West, states that together have very few electoral votes–with West Virginia the highest support with 60 percent, followed by North Dakota with 59 percent and South Dakota with 57 percent, and then Montana and Wyoming with 56 percent and Alabama with 55 percent. All of the Great Plains states are part of the group, and the poorer Southern states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, South Carolina, besides Alabama, and the Appalachian states of Kentucky and West Virginia, in addition to the four smaller populated Mountain States (Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah), and Alaska. All 17 were Republican states in 2016.

The 16 states that give Trump between 40-50 percent include Maine and New Hampshire in New England; North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Texas, and Mississippi in the South, with only Mississippi being a very poor state economically; Pennsylvania, and the Midwestern states of Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri; and Arizona and Nevada in the West.

And then,the 17 states that totally reject Trump include the New England area minus Maine and New Hampshire; the entire Northeast down through Virginia, except Pennsylvania; Illinois and Minnesota in the Midwest; Colorado and New Mexico in the Mountain West; and the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. Vermont with 26, Massachusetts with 29, Maryland and California with 30, and New York with 31 give the lowest support to Trump.

So overall, the map of support is similar as it was in the Presidential Election of 2016, and the key area of contention remains the Midwest and Pennsylvania, and Florida, which elected Trump; and they will determine whether the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 can win the White House.

Trump Drops To 35 Percent In Gallup Poll, With 59 Percent Negative Toward His Presidency

Ronald 5 Comments

Donald Trump is falling fast in the polls, hitting an all time low for a new President after 70 days, of only 35 percent in the latest Gallup poll.

Trump is striking out at the House Freedom Caucus, threatening primary challengers to the extreme right wing group, not realizing that in their gerrymandered districts, they are likely to beat any primary opponents in 2018.

Trump talks about cooperating with Democrats, but why would they, since he wishes to destroy Obama Care, and has forced an extreme right wing judge, Neil Gorsuch, on them, with the potential for this man who seems to be to the right of Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, to be on the Court for the next 30 or more years, as he is only 49.

59 percent in the latest Gallup poll have a negative attitude toward Trump, and his second Muslim Ban has again been held up in the courts.

His Secretary of the Interior, Ryan Zinke, has admitted that building a Mexico Wall will be a major challenge due to topography, including the Rio Grande River in Texas.

And the Russian connection is being ratcheted up by the Senate Intelligence Committee headed by Republican Richard Burr and Democrat Mark Warner.

Finally, there are reports that former National Security Adviser General Michael Flynn, is ready to testify in exchange for immunity from prosecution so it now seems likely that Donald Trump will NOT finish his term, and that Mike Pence will become President during this term.

A Third Party In The Offing: Not Likely!

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With the disgust over the disaster of the 113th Congress, and the GOP inspired government shutdown, the public opinion support for a third party has risen to its highest point in a decade, with 60 percent stating such a belief, in a Gallup Poll.

The frustration is understandable, but the American system of government has never moved toward a three party system, which would create the need for coalitions, and prevent passage of legislation, making it more difficult than the split Congress has demonstrated.

Third party history has been one of protest, and having an effect on who wins the Presidency, and promoting new ideas that often are later accepted by one or the other major political parties.

What is much more likely than a third party competing with the two major parties is a political realignment, with the Democrats likely to benefit by the civil war in the Republican Party.

And the Tea Party Movement is doomed, as the American people are catching on as to how destructive and negative that movement has been in the past four years.

The Republican Party has had a history of some great leaders and accomplishments, but their ability to compete is doomed, until and when they recognize that moving to the Far Right is a disaster, and that they must appeal to the voting groups that they have antagonized, including minorities, the young, woman, labor, and the struggling middle class.

And they must repudiate the hold of religion over their party, and emphasize tolerance, open mindedness, and a belief in the power of science, or else they will never be competing, and might be replaced by a new party!

Pew Poll Shows Massive Swing To Romney: Is The Election Lost For Obama?

Ronald 4 Comments

The Pew Research Poll that came out yesterday is an alarming reminder that the Presidential Election Of 2012 is far from over, as Mitt Romney gained massively in many ways, and at least in this poll, is now ahead by 4 points over Barack Obama.

Is it time to panic? No, but it is a sign that Joe Biden MUST do well in the upcoming Vice Presidential debate against Paul Ryan on Thursday, and Obama MUST perform much better than his lackadaisical effort in the first Presidential debate last week, in the remaining two Presidential debates next week and the week after!.

Additionally, more effort must be made to demonstrate that Mitt Romney is a chameleon, which he most certainly is, and that one cannot trust that his sudden move to the middle is the true Romney, after a year of working hard to be considered, as he self described himself, as a “severe” conservative!

The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Obama ahead by five points, 50-45, as he was before the debate, which became a tie for two days after the debate, but then went back to its old numbers after the favorable jobs report on Friday.

It is clear that the polls are very volatile, and may reflect doubts by voters about who should be President, but a good performance by both Biden and Obama, along with accelerated efforts to show Romney as the liar that he is, is still likely to lead to the same result, with a majority of “swing” states in Obama’s camp, with only the need to win two to three of them to win the Electoral College majority.

More worrisome is how the Obama decline for now could affect House and Senate races, and possibly give the Republicans control of both houses of Congress in the worst scenario.

For these next four weeks, all those who want to insure an Obama and Democratic victory must put in gargantuan efforts to bring about the desired result!

The Most Conservative And Most Liberal States, According To The Gallup Poll

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A Gallup poll measures the level of conservatism and liberalism of American states, as judged by those who are questioned about their perception of politics.

Under this measurement, the order of the top ten conservative states are Mississippi, Idaho, Alabama, Wyoming, Utah, South Dakota, Louisiana, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Arkansas.

Note that this is a list of five Southern states, two Great Plains States, and three Mountain West states (which happen to have large percentages of Mormons in their population).

The ten most liberal states are, in order, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Oregon, Colorado, Washington, New Jersey, and California.

Note that this is a list of four New England states, two Middle Atlantic states, and four Western states.

So the country is still very much a divided country ideologically, and in many respects, by geographic section!

Congress Approval At All Time Low: What It Means

Ronald 4 Comments

A new poll shows that only TEN percent of those polled have a positive view of Congress in 2012.

The Gallup Poll showed the unbelievable reality that Congress has a lower rating than BP during the Oil Spill, or Richard Nixon during Watergate, or banks during the banking crisis of 2008.

This could mean, in theory, that we could witness a wholesale removal of members of both parties in Congress in November, but that is really highly unlikely.

The fact that many Americans are unhappy with Congress as an institution does not mean that they do not like THEIR member of Congress, and most members routinely get re-elected, particularly in the House of Representatives, with a higher chance of defeat in the Senate races.

Also, reapportionment of seats, which occurs once in a decade, will probably promote less turnover since boundary lines change. And since a substantial number of members of Congress are retiring, some of them are leaving because they see the handwriting on the wall, as the saying goes!

More than incumbents losing who do not retire, is the question of whether the Republicans can retain control of the House of Representatives, and whether the Democrats can continue to control the Senate.

What seems most likely at this juncture is that we may see a switch in party control in both chambers, as the Democrats only need a 25 seat gain to take control, and there is great discontent with the Tea Party Movement membership in the GOP, which has made life miserable for Speaker of the House John Boehner and his party.

And the likelihood is that the US Senate will see a Republican takeover, needing only four seats to accomplish that.

This will present a new scenario for President Barack Obama if he is re-elected, but it is a more normal situation to have a Democratic House and a Republican Senate historically, having occurred from 1911-1913, 1931-1933. and from 1981-1987. The present opposite party control in the two chambers–a Republican House and a Democratic Senate–has NEVER happened, and seems to have proved to be less able to accomplish ANY cooperation as a result!

Could Jon Huntsman Be The John Anderson Of 2012? What Effect Could It Have On The Presidential Election?

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Some speculation and rumors are beginning that Jon Huntsman, the moderate centrist candidate in the Republican race for the Presidential nomination, might abandon the party and run as a third party candidate, appealing to the center of the population. Right now, in reality, he scores exactly one percent in eighth and last place of the Gallup poll, on the Republican race for President, so he might not have any sustaining influence, but who can know this far ahead?:

Huntsman has been depicting Barack Obama as too far to the Left, and all of his GOP opponents as too far to the RIght, and his argument is that the Center, where most people are, needs to have representation in the election.

Huntsman is an appealing candidate in his appearance and speaking manner, and comes across as rational and reasonable to people who are disgusted at the growing right wing extremism of the Republican Party. He has personal wealth, and is courted by the news media, so in theory, he could run a substantial third party of independent bid.

In many respects, he appears to be similar to former Illinois Congressman John Anderson, once one of the top leaders of the Republican minority, who left the party and ran as an Independent in 1980, claiming that President Jimmy Carter had been disappointing and that Ronald Reagan was too far to the Right. After winning a lot of media support and 15 percent in polls, he was able to gain the opportunity to meet Reagan in one debate, with Carter refusing to confront him. Anderson made Reagan look weak in their debate, but then Reagan performed well against Carter and won a landslide victory, with Anderson only winning 7 percent of the vote. Many who flirted with Anderson, including this author, ended up not voting for him, with the recognition that third party or independent candidates only hurt one of the candidates, and cannot win with the Electoral College reality which favors the major party candidates.

If Huntsman were to run, the question is would he hurt Obama or the Republican nominee more? There is no easy answer to this question, but it would certainly “muddy up the waters” of the campaign were he to do that.

Sadly, even if one hoped that such a so called Centrist candidate were to run, at the end we are going to have either Obama or the Republican nominee as our President for the next term, and easily the preference would be for Obama, who the author regards as the best Democratic President since Lyndon B. Johnson!

The author was not thrilled at the time with Jimmy Carter, and often even with Bill Clinton later, but right now, he would be opposed to a Jon Huntsman, or any other, third party candidate, who might just harm Obama and elect the horrors of a Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann or Ron Paul!

Democrats Lead By Seven Points In New Poll For Congressional Elections Of 2012!

Ronald 1 Comment

A new Gallup poll shows Democrats leading by seven points over Republicans in a generic ballot as to which party they prefer to control Congress in 2013-2014.

This is a wider lead at this point than Republicans had in 2009, which led to a GOP House of Representatives!

The support of the Tea Party is very tepid, and it seems as if the alliance of the Tea Party with the GOP may backfire on them, and lead to the Republicans being pushed out of majority control after only two years, well justified as the Republicans have done nothing positive on the issue of jobs and the economy, and instead have simply stood in the way as obstructionists to President Barack Obama!

The Gallup Poll And Gay Marriage

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The latest Gallup Poll shows a growing support of gay marriage among Democrats and Independents, but stagnant among Republicans.

According to the poll, 69 percent of Democrats and 59 percent of Independents now support the right of gay men and lesbians to marrry, with both numbers growing rapidly over the past few months.

But Republicans in the poll remain frozen at 28 percent in support, with a lot of this based on evangelical Christian influence on the party, plus the fact that the GOP has NEVER stood for any major reform that promotes civil rights and equality since the 1920s, although they were ahead on reform in the Reconstruction period after the Civil War (Radical Republicans) and the Progressive Era (Progressive Republicans).

Among younger people, particularly, the opposition to gay marriage is small in number, although among older Americans, particularly the elderly who are Christian, the opposition is stronger.

What is clear is that gay marriage is eventually going to be seen as a norm, with the passage of time.

When one looks back 30-50 years from now, one will wonder why such strong opposition existed, similar to those who look back now to 1967, when finally the Supreme Court declared interracial marriage to be constitutional. One will wonder why such a big deal was made over it fifty years ago!

Gallup Poll On Republican Presidential Nomination For 2012: Romney In Front!

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Here we are, a month before the midterm elections, and a Gallup Poll indicates that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the front runner for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2012, with 19 percent, with former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin at 16 percent, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee at 12 percent!

Further behind is former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia with 9 percent, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 7 percent!

Further behind with single digits are Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, former Pennsylvania Governor Rick Santorum, South Dakota Senator John Thune, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, and Indiana Congressman Mike Pence!

It must be pointed out that being ahead in the nomination battle just before the midterm election has been the “kiss of death” in the past in both parties, so the fact that Mitt Romney is ahead cannot be seen as a clue to his likely nomination two years from now!

Romney would seem to many observers to be the best choice because of his business background and administrative experience as Massachusetts Governor, and as the head of the Salt Lake City Olympic Committee back in 2002, but it does not mean that the GOP will do the rational thing and select him!

The question is: will his Mormon faith, his earlier “liberal” image as Massachusetts Governor, his promotion of a state health care plan often compared to “Obamacare”, and the fact that he does not seem to fit well with the Tea Party Movement now influencing the Republican Party, doom his chances to be the challenger to President Obama in 2012?

If one had to bet the future, it would seem as if Mitt Romney will have trouble winning the nomination, as it is seen as unlikely that early voting states, such as the caucuses in Iowa, and the primary in South Carolina, will support him over more socially conservative candidates, as many of the other potential nominees are perceived!