Electoral College

The Corruption Of The Supreme Court, With Five Appointees By Presidents Who Lost The Popular Vote!

With the likelihood that Amy Coney Barrett will be successfully confirmed to be the replacement of Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg on the Supreme Court, we are about to have a Court with five appointees by Presidents who lost the national popular vote, but still won the Electoral College.

George W. Bush lost the national popular vote to Vice President Al Gore in 2000 by a 540,000 margin, but was able to select Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Samuel Alito in 2005 and 2006.

And now Donald Trump, who lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016, by a 2.85 million margin, has been able to select Associate Justices Neil Gorsuch in 2017, Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, and now Amy Comey Barrett in 2020.

And even more infuriating is that three of these five appointees helped the George W. Bush campaign in the Bush V Gore Supreme Court case, assisting him winning the case in a majority Republican selected Court in December 2000–specifically, John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Comey Barrett!

And the right wing Federalist Society, which has been on a 40 year campaign to make the federal court system move to the extreme right on such issues as health care, abortion, gay marriage, gun rights, so called freedom of religion, deregulation of the economy and the environment, suppression of voting rights and labor rights, has fully succeeded in its campaign to undermine American democracy and a sense of humanity!

So when one complains from the right side of the political spectrum at the “horror” of Democrats “packing the Court” if they were to add seats to the Supreme Court, one has to say the level of hypocrisy is enormous, when that has been the commitment for four decades of the Right in American politics.

And who can say that if the Republicans were to win control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency, that they would not be willing to promote “packing of the Court’, so that they could add two to four more seats to the Supreme Court, and make the Court not just the 6-3 margin it will now be, but possibly 8-3 or 10-3, if two to four seats were to be added!

And one more point: Two of the six member Republican majority have had sexual misconduct hanging over their heads, although it has not affected their tenure on the Court, speaking specifically of Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh. So the ethical and moral standing of the Court has been damaged irrevocably!

But do the conservatives and the Federalist Society care about this? Not one iota!

Donald Trump On The Way To A Potential Worst Election Defeat Than Any Republican Since 1964

Donald Trump, in the midst of the COVID 19 Pandemic, seems to be on the road to the worst election defeat for a Republican Presidential nominee since Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona in 1964, against President Lyndon B. Johnson.

Goldwater only won 6 states and 38.5 percent of the vote in 1964, and since then, only George H. W. Bush lost his reelection in a three way race in 1992 with lower percentage, 37.4 percent, but also 18 states won by Bush.

Trump has never won a majority of support in any legitimate public opinion poll since his inauguration, and remember he won the Electoral College in 2016 by small margins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

He has seen some of those who voted for him turning against him in recent months, with his horrid policies on the CoronaVirus Pandemic, so uncaring and lacking in empathy, sincerity, decency, and compassion, but now he and his supporters in the top level of government also facing the pandemic themselves.

So in a two way race as now, he may be in the camp of Goldwater, or possibly even worse, as Alfred Landon in 1936 against Franklin D. Roosevelt with only 36.5 percent of the vote!

Ohio, The Buckeye State, May Again Be Instructive On Presidential Election

Ohio, the Buckeye State, may again be instructive on the Presidential Election of 2020, as it has been 45 out of 54 times in the past, and only twice on the losing side since 1900–1944 and 1960!

No Republican President has won the White House without winning Ohio.

Ohio is 34th largest of the 50 states in land area; 10th most densely populated; and seventh most populous; and it has been losing electoral votes steadily over the decades, as the Sun Belt states have grown larger in population.

But it still matters greatly, and recent polls indicate Joe Biden taking a lead in Ohio over Donald Trump.

As I wrote on this blog on September 15, 2018, Ohio historically has been the most predictable state in the Electoral College results, followed by Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico.

If Donald Trump cannot win Ohio, there is no path for him to win the Presidency for a second term in 2020. The public opinion polls as I write, indicate troubles for Trump also in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, so the Midwest heartland is not for him, as things stand now.

America Is In The Most Dangerous Constitutional Crisis In All Of Its History, More Than 1860 Or 1932!

Shocking but true, America has just entered into its most dangerous constitutional crisis in all of its history, more than 1860 or 1932.

The Civil War has always been regarded as the most difficult moment constitutionally, as the Civil War was on the horizon, but Abraham Lincoln won the election, and was inaugurated peacefully on March 4, 1861.

The Great Depression was at its worse at the time of the election in 1932, but Franklin D. Roosevelt won the election, and was inaugurated peacefully on March 4, 1933.

Both Lincoln and FDR faced assassination threats, but both survived and became our greatest Presidents.

Other times, we have had contested or close elections, as in 1800, 1824, 1876, 1880, 1916, 1960, 2000, and 2016, but always there was a peaceful transition of government from one President to another, without rancor.

But now, yesterday, President Donald Trump indicated that he would not guarantee a peaceful transition of power, that the mail ballots should be thrown out, and his administration continue in office beyond January 20, 2021, and that an extra Supreme Court Justice might be enough to rule in Trump’s favor. Also, there are plans behind the scenes to have Presidential electors in many swing states be convinced to support Trump in the Electoral College, even if Trump is seen as losing the popular vote in many states.

This is alarming, and presages a constitutional crisis that would be worse than 1860 or 1932, and a move by Trump to destroy the Constitution and rule of law, and the establishment of an authoritarian Fascist oriented dictatorship!

It means we have a tense 40 days until the election, and a potentially tense 78 days to Inauguration Day, whereby Trump could declare martial law, or we could have both Trump and Biden coming to Inauguration Day as the perceived winner by their own camps, and how that would be handled.

Our system of government has always been based on the loser accepting defeat, not being a sore loser, and not threatening to provoke violence by his supporters, but Trump is already doing this at his no mask, no social distancing, rallies, an alarming development.

This is a moment of reckoning for all elected Republicans, that while they want to compete to win power, that they have to respect the Constitution and rule of law, and NOT support a renegade President, if the election results are clearly in favor of Joe Biden, as is expected.

We have to hope that Biden wins by a massive margin, as otherwise, we are in uncharted territory, and even if it is a massive victory, Trump might claim it is a stolen election, and throw it to the courts, and a newly appointed Associate Justice could be the decisive factor in deciding whether we retain our democracy.

The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, ironically, could be a major turning point in American history in a negative fashion way beyond the passing of this great woman!

We cannot allow that to occur!

Will Ohio Go Against The National Trend In 2020?

The state of Ohio has long been seen as a crucial state, and no Republican has been elected President without winning Ohio, including Donald Trump in 2016.

So only Gerald Ford has been a Republican President and lost Ohio, when he ran for a full term against Jimmy Carter in 1976. Once we knew that Carter had won Ohio, it was clear Ford would not have a full term, after succeeding the resigned Richard Nixon in 1974.

When one looks at party history since the Republican Party was founded in 1854, we find only five elections in which the Republican candidate lost Ohio to a Democrat, as follows:

John C. Fremont 1856 lost to James Buchanan

James G. Blaine 1884 lost to Grover Cleveland

President Benjamin Harrison 1892 lost to former President Grover Cleveland

Thomas E. Dewey 1944 lost to President Franklin D. Roosevelt

Richard Nixon 1960 lost to John F. Kennedy

So only three Democratic Presidents have won the White House without winning Ohio–James Buchanan in 1856, Grover Cleveland in 1884, and John F. Kennedy in 1960, with Cleveland second time and FDR fourth time winning a return to the White House without winning Ohio.

Right now, polls show Donald Trump winning Ohio by 5 points instead of the 8 point lead he had over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

So if polls hold up, Joe Biden will be the fourth Democrat to become President without Ohio, only the sixth time in 166 years, and the first time since 1960.

Ohio has been steadily losing electoral votes, as the balance of population has moved South and West, and will likely lose one electoral vote in 2024 and 2028, going down from 18 to 17, so will have less impact politically in the future!

Reality: If Biden Wins Florida, He Only Needs To Win One More Trump State Of 2016!

The odds of Donald Trump being able to pull out a win in November is very poor, particularly if Florida, third in electoral votes with 29, goes to Joe Biden.

The Democratic states of 2016 all seem solid for Joe Biden, although the Republicans are trying to win New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada and New Mexico, but the odds are very long against that occurring.

With Florida being won by Biden, all that the Democratic Presidential nominee needs to hit the 270 mark is win one of the following:

Pennsylvania 20 electoral votes

Michigan 16 electoral votes

Wisconsin 10 electoral votes

North Carolina 15 electoral votes

Arizona 11 electoral votes

Ohio 18 electoral votes

Georgia 16 electoral votes

Right now, in public opinion polls, Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all but the last two states, and one must remember that in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump only won by a combination of 78,000 votes combined in 2016!

Florida is prime territory for Democrats, with the growing Puerto Rican population, enhanced by the hurricane which hit that island in 2017, and by senior citizens notably turning against Donald Trump in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic. Since Trump did not win by very much in Florida in 2016, and with the enhanced Democratic campaign that will be mounted in Florida, the likelihood of Florida going Democratic, along with at least one of the above seven states is, seemingly, not all that difficult.

Also, Florida could end up trending “Blue” on Election Night, throwing the plot of Trump to declare victory that evening out of possibility.

It would be fitting and ironic that the state that Donald Trump has now made his official residence could put the nail in the coffin of Donald Trump staying on as President!

Donald Trump Declares His Fascist Desires To Delay Presidential Election, Rejected Unanimously By Congress And Scholars

President Donald Trump is not hiding his dictatorial desires, having declared on Twitter yesterday his wish to delay or cancel the Presidential Election of 2020 until the legitimacy of the election can be insured.

That makes it very clear that Trump is a Fascist, trying to stay in office without accountability and responsibility for his multitude of crimes against his oath of office.

Trump was trying to take attention away from the escalation of the CoronaVirus Pandemic to all time highs in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California, and the growing number of cases erupting in the Midwest.

Trump is also trying to make us forget that the Gross Domestic Product dropped a shocking 33 percent in the second quarter of April, May and June 2020, the all time record since statistics were kept starting in 1947, after World War II. Five years of growth were wiped out all at once!

All this plus the illegal, unconstitutional sending of unidentified military forces to Portland, Seattle and threats to other Democratic run cities, over the fake threat to federal buildings conjured up by Trump. Who are the threats he suggests? Retired military veterans, housewives, and other decent Americans are taking a stand against racism and for freedom of assembly, while the unwanted and unconstitutional forces are provoking violence and detaining people, shoving them in cars, in a manner reminiscent of Nazi Storm Troopers!

For the first time, however, Republicans in Congress rebuked Trump on the idea of delaying or suspending the elections. This included Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, as well as many others in a party that until now has bowed down to every whim of Donald Trump!

Trump’s suggestion that the results of the election might take months or years is truly delusional, as he forgets that Inauguration Day is 78 days after Election Day, and that the Electoral College meets in December.

It took 36 days in 2000 to resolve the winner in that election, and even in 1876-1877, while it took four months to decide the winner, it occurred with two days to go until the inauguration on the then later date of March 4!

The reason why Trump is acting hysterically is his realization that he will be indicted by a New York grand jury, which cannot be stopped by a Presidential pardon, and will, most likely, go to federal prison, where he belongs, along with a a whole group of family members and many major figures in his administration.

It is only Donald Trump who thinks there will be a “rigged” election, as he well knows that his election in 2016 was “rigged” by Russian collusion, pointed out in the report of Special Counsel Robert Mueller in 2019, but covered up by Attorney General William Barr, who will also end up in prison as the worst, most corrupt Attorney General in American history!

Absentee and mail balloting will go forth in this upcoming election, and the issue of corruption is a “red herring”, and Americans will have the right in much of the nation to vote, and not endanger their lives in this pandemic to do so!

Many major conservative groups, such as the Federalist Society, denounced Trump for the suggestion of delaying the election, and said he was acting like a Fascist, and should resign.

So finally, Republicans and conservatives are rising up against Trump!

Joe Biden Should Seek To Win Strongly “Red” States, To Promote Democratic Strength, And Humiliate Donald Trump!

There is a growing feeling of a Democratic “Tsunami” on the way on November 3, 2020, when the Presidential and Congressional Elections take place across the nation.

Indications are that Joe Biden is working hardest on convincing voters to support him in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three “swing” states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins.

If those three states switched from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, then the former Vice President would win the Electoral College.

But since there is no guarantee, it is important for Biden to work hard to win Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona as well, to allow for any slippage in the three states lost by Clinton by small numbers. So a lot of effort is going into winning those three states listed, as Biden is now comfortably ahead in all three, along with the other three.

If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona it will be a massive victory, which is almost certain to insure that the Senate would go Democratic by more than the three minimum victories needed. And the House of Representatives would add to the Democratic margin gained in the midterm elections of 2018.

But the argument is why not also go for states that seem long shots–Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa, all of which would make Joe Biden a landslide winner by far?

And even further, why not try to win Kansas and Montana?

So if things go well, the Democrats could have the most massive victory for the Presidency since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and could be a sign of a Democratic majority that would be long lasting!

The total humiliation of Donald Trump would be a wonderful event to witness!

From Election To Inauguration: Four Worrisome Times, And Now Again In 2020

In American history, we have witnessed four times when the period from the election to the inauguration has been a worrisome time.

The first time was 1860-1861, when Abraham Lincoln was facing the secession of the South, and likely civil war, and even the danger of assassination threats before he took office.

The second time was 1876-1877, when the popular vote went to Samuel J. Tilden, but the electoral vote went to Rutherford B. Hayes, decided by a special Electoral Commission, which resulted in the closest electoral vote imaginable, a one vote margin of electors.

The third time was 1932-1933, when Franklin D. Roosevelt faced a recalcitrant Herbert Hoover, who refused to cooperate with the President-Elect as the Great Depression worsened.

The fourth time was 2000-2001, when the electoral vote was decided by the Supreme Court, awarding Florida to George W. Bush over Al Gore, by the second closest electoral vote, only five electoral vote margin.

And now, in 2020, we have to fear that Donald Trump will refuse to concede the election, and will fight it in every possible way, if the electoral vote is contested. And even if it is an easy victory for Joe Biden, Trump might create a constitutional crisis, and attempt to declare martial law and suspend the Constitution. He also might attempt to start a war with China or Iran, in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic.

So we have a lot to worry about as we move toward the Presidential Election of 2020!

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!