“Red” States

Immigration Turned California From “Red” To “Blue” State, And Is Now Doing It To Nation, Destroying Republican Party’s National Future!

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In 1994, California Republican Governor Pete Wilson promoted the passage of Proposition 187, to bar any services to undocumented or illegal immigrants, including education, health care and other social services in the Golden State.

It passed, but divided the state, and ultimately, was declared unconstitutional in 1998, and was never put into effect, but its long term effect was to destroy the Republican Party in California, with the only statewide office holder since then being Arnold Schwarzenegger, himself a celebrity and an immigrant as Governor.

The Republican Party has been decimated in the state legislature and in Congress, and the state has been steadily “Blue” in Presidential elections ever since, even though the state had had a long history of conservative Republicans in office, headed by Ronald Reagan, but including others before and after his time as Governor of the state.

So the Democrats have a great edge in national elections, with the automatic 55 electoral votes of California insuring a Democratic advantage for the Presidency.

But the Republican Party nationally has not learned from this, and instead has alienated both Hispanic and Latino Americans, and also Asian Americans, and in the last election, both groups have gone Democratic with more than 70 percent support, and probably higher in this next Presidential election.

There is a very good chance that North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, Arizona, and even eventually, Texas, will go “Blue” either this year or certainly by 2020 or 2024, and when that happens, the Republican Party nationally is doomed in its efforts to win the White House for the long term.

So Donald Trump’s nativism is the disaster equivalent to what Pete Wilson did a generation ago to the largest state in the Union.

The old saying is: “As California goes, so goes the nation!” Nothing more true can be said!

Donald Trump Fading Fast In Public Opinion Polls

Ronald 8 Comments

Donald Trump’s Presidential campaign is imploding very rapidly.

At this time, every public opinion poll indicates that Hillary Clinton is far ahead nationally, and that every one of the 18 “Blue” states is strongly “Blue”, and that the “Swing” states are also clearly in that direction.

Additionally, many “Red” states, reliably Republican, suddenly are not so reliable, and might possibly go “Blue”, including North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, Arizona, Utah, and even Texas.

If that happens, Hillary Clinton would have a massive landslide with close to or over 400 electoral votes.

It is too early to relax, however, as a lot can change over 12 weeks, but the signs are very positive.

This has been accomplished despite Hillary Clinton’s having high levels of distrust and suspicion, mostly connected to her Email problems while at the State Department

Imagine if she did not have that issue, and was doing better on personal traits in public opinion polls.

The Rapidly Growing Population Of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Texas Bode Well For Democrats By The 2020 Presidential Election!

Ronald 12 Comments

Four states are rapidly growing in population, according to the Census Bureau, and all four, while “Red” states in the 2012 Presidential election, have the potential to turn “Blue” either in 2016 or certainly by 2020.

North Carolina seems most likely to go for Hillary Clinton, followed by Georgia and possibly Arizona. Longer term, there is Texas.

With North Carolina having 15, Georgia having 16, Arizona having 11, and Texas having 38 electoral votes now, it is certain that all four will have MORE electoral votes starting in 2024.

And Florida, a “swing” state with constantly growing population, particularly of increased Puerto Rican migration, has 29 electoral votes through the 2020 Presidential election, and assuredly will have more in 2024.

So it is highly likely that the Democratic Party will have, for sure, over 400 electoral votes by 2020, and if not, by 2024, an Electoral College landslide for the long term!

Add the present 80 electoral votes of the four presently “Red” states to the 332 that Barack Obama had in 2012, and you get 412 electoral votes, and again, more by 2024 after the reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives and in the Electoral College after the Census of 2020!

Add the Midwestern states of Indiana (11) and Missouri (10) and you get 433 electoral votes to 105 for the Republicans, but again with probably more total electoral votes by gaining of population in the four Sunbelt states, even with the chance that Indiana and Missouri will not gain, and might lose a seat each.

So expect the chance that the total number of electoral votes could, and with the addition of Florida and California gaining seats as well, be in the high 430s!

Republicans Unifying Around Donald Trump Are Self Destructing As A Result! Destroying Their Careers And Reputations In The Process!

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Donald Trump is a total disaster for the Republican Party, and many office holders are backing away as rapidly as possible, but it may not be enough to save them and their careers and reputations in the process.

Many are still unifying around Trump, and will suffer ever more, including Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey and Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama as two examples, because they both have the ambition to be Vice President.

Many others clearly have no desire to run with Trump, and to serve under him would be a nightmare.

The only way to hold on to one’s career in the Republican Party is to repudiate Trump, and condemn his racism, nativism, xenophobia, and misogyny. Republicans in “Blue” states are showing signs of doing so, as for instance, Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker.

Many Republican Senators running for reelection are seeing their likelihood of reelection going down the drain, and are in crisis mode.

Of course, Republicans in solidly “Red” states, particularly in the South, probably do not need to worry as much, although there is no certainty that the “Red” states will all remain “Red”, as there are signs that North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, and even Utah might abandon the Republican Presidential candidate.

Donald Trump Plans 15 State Strategy For Presidential Election, Including Solidly Blue States!

Ronald 32 Comments

Donald Trump is telling us he has a 15 state strategy, including California and New York, solidly “blue” states.

Trump is living in a parallel universe, as there is no chance that he will win ANY “blue” state, as this blogger sees it, except possibly New York, his home state.

In an article for History News Network (HNN) by this author, available under “Articles” on the right side of this blog, I come to the conclusion that Trump COULD win New York, by a small margin, being that he is a resident of New York, and should carry upstate New York and Long Island, and could possibly outpoll Hillary Clinton statewide, even with New York City staying strongly Democratic.

However, California, most assuredly will NOT go for Trump, with Barack Obama having won the state by 23 points in 2012.

As I state on that article, which has had high readership, I forecast that Clinton will win two states that were “red” in 2012, North Carolina and Georgia, with a total of 31 electoral votes, which would make up for the possible loss of New York, with 29 electoral votes.

So I forecast an Electoral College vote of 334-204, instead of the 332-206 results for Obama in 2012.

The Political Earthquake Shakes America: What It Portends For The Future!

Ronald 18 Comments

This author and blogger was literally stunned by the political earthquake that hit American politics yesterday!

The sixth year of a President is not a good year in history, as has been proven many times.

On the average, the President’s party loses 26 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate in the second term midterm.

This time, the Democrats lost at least 14 seats in the House and at least 7 in the Senate.

The Republicans gained what looks like the biggest majority in the House since 1928, when Herbert Hoover was elected President, and the next year, the Great Depression hit America!

The Republicans won control of the Senate, with at least 52 seats, and possibly two more, in Alaska and Louisiana.

The Democrats lost Senate seats in the “red” states, and also lost Governorships in “blue” states, including Maryland, Massachusetts, and Illinois.

The issue is whether the Republicans are willing to move forward on legislation that Barack Obama can sign into law.

If they are willing to stop their obstructionism, some progress can be made, but the President should NOT give up all his principles, as that would make his Presidency become one of caving in to right wing demands.

We are going to have a tough two years, but the Democrats, and their progressive and liberal allies, cannot act as if they are Republicans, and must, instead, fight for their principles, and see yesterday’s defeat as more of a midterm normal development, that is extremely likely to be reversed in the Senate in two years, and with the Democrats still favored to win the Electoral College in 2016, and therefore, win the White House!

Two Democratic Senate Women Nominees On Way To Victory, Insuring A Democratic Senate Majority In 2015-2016!

Ronald 1 Comment

As stated yesterday, the odds of two Democratic women Senators keeping their seats is highly likely–Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire and Kay Hagan in North Carolina.

Since the Democrats are bound to lose some seats in the US Senate, this is a good omen, but it is added to by the strong likelihood of two women running for the Senate in “Red” states, Kentucky and Georgia, who are seen as new women members of the upper chamber.

These are Alison Lundergan Grimes of Kentucky and Michelle Nunn of Georgia, who will counteract the likely loss of Democratic seats in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.

Grimes has had to fight a rough battle against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but the top two Kentucky newspapers have endorsed her, and the negativism and nastiness and obstructionism of McConnell makes him the number one target to defeat for Democrats nationwide. McConnell has done nothing for the large poor population, both white and black, in his state, and has been the cheer leader of every attempt to prevent Barack Obama from having any success in his time in the Presidency. In that, McConnell has failed, and it will be a glorious moment when he is forced to concede to Grimes, who has proved she is a tough lady, and that she will be a positive force in the Senate over the next six years.

Michelle Nunn, daughter of respected former Senator Sam Nunn, has run an excellent race against business David Perdue, who brags about his success at outsourcing jobs. Nunn is ahead in most polls, and is very competent and qualified, and like Grimes, is seen as likely to win, and this blogger predicts their success, along with Shaheen in New Hampshire and Hagan in North Carolina.

Tomorrow, we will look at three highly endangered seats–in Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

A Revolutionary Idea: Two Democratic Women That Could Lead To Massive Democratic Victory In 2016 And Beyond!

Ronald 2 Comments

The assumption is that Hillary Clinton has the great advantage for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2016, but there is great concern that she could have opposition on the Left of her party, and needs shoring up of the base on issues such as Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts represents—attack on Wall Street greed, and advocacy of relief of student loan interest rates, the minimum wage battle, unemployment compensation extension, and other populist issues.

Warren has shown strength in campaigning in “Red” states such as Kentucky and West Virginia, as she supported Alison Lundergan Grimes and Natalie Tennant in their Senate bids.

Warren is a lightning rod who inspires people in states where the masses of the population have suffered under uncaring Republican Governors, Senators and House members, and many people have gravitated to her when they hear her message of speaking for the average American of all backgrounds, somewhat reminiscent of Robert F. Kennedy nearly 40 years ago!

The question is whether Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren could co-exist and work as a team for a national campaign and in an administration after victory.

The question is why not, and while their ages in 2016, 69 for Hillary and 67 for Elizabeth are not the best scenario, it could open up the possibility of one term each for both women in the White House, OR two terms for Hillary with Elizabeth a willing participant in the Vice Presidency.

The two would be a dynamic team, and would inspire women, working class whites, African Americans, Latinos, labor, and progressives, liberals, moderates, and independents in such a manner as to turn “Red’ states “Blue”, leading to a massive victory nationwide and a long term Democratic dominance!

Why cannot America accept two women as their leaders? It is about time to do just that, and it would motivate and inspire the largest voter turnout in American history!

One could project that the so called “swing” states of Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida would all be ‘Blue”, but so, likely, would be Georgia, Kentucky, West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and some possibility in Texas and Arizona, as well!

That would leave only the Great Plains states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma); the Southern states of South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi; the Mountain States of Idaho, Wyoming, Utah; and Alaska as remaining “Red” states.

It is time to consider the revolutionary change of two women leading our government, two talented women of great competence and brilliance—Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren!

Senator Elizabeth Warren And Senator Rand Paul Gaining Attention In 2016 Presidential Race!

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Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul are gaining a lot of attention for the 2016 Presidential race with their recent speeches and campaigning.

Warren, a freshman Senator, who gained fame from her campaign for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has stirred the imagination of left wing Democrats, who are unhappy with the comparatively centrist campaign of Hillary Clinton.

Warren has made issues of unemployment compensation, raising the minimum wage, attacking Wall Street, and calling for revising the college student loan system, which has effectively enslaved millions of students in unending college loan debt, due to high interest rates.

She comes across as folksy, not bad for a former Harvard professor, and has gained large audiences in red states such as Kentucky and West Virginia, where she has campaigned for candidates Alison Lungergan Grimes and Natalie Tennant for Senate seats. Remember, however, that she was born and lived for years in Oklahoma.

She is a new face, in the sense of national exposure, but only two years younger than Hillary Clinton.

Paul, the son of former Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, has gained attention by his attack on Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Vice President Dick Cheney, who have both called for returning troops to Iraq. Paul makes it clear that America should not return to involvement in Iraq, and he seems to have the American people on his side, based on public opinion polls. He comes across as principled, while neocons attack him as isolationist, which he denies.

It is still hard to imagine either Warren or Paul gaining the nominations of their parties for 2016, but anything is possible, and they are certainly adding a lot of interest into the race!

Voter “Fraud”, Voter Suppression, Civil Rights, And The 26th Amendment!

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We hear Republicans claim “voter fraud”, which is a total fraud in itself, as the amount of voter fraud has been shown to be something like one billion of one percent!

There is no voter fraud to speak of, and if we are going to talk about voter fraud, what about the fraud in the vote count in Florida in the Presidential Election of 2000, which benefited George W. Bush over Al Gore; and the reported voter fraud in Ohio in the Presidential Election Of 2004, which again benefited George W. Bush, this time over John Kerry?

It is a fact that only in states that are seen as in danger of turning “blue”, do we see accusations of voter fraud, to insure that a “red” state will stay “red”! So we have seen the Southern states and some Midwestern states, which have passed voter suppression laws, affecting African Americans, Latinos, poor people, the elderly, and now, even the young.

So the classic case, but not the only one, is North Carolina, which now had cut down the number of voting days before Election Day; has stopped same day registration; has decided that early voting on the Sunday before the election shall be ended (what often is the method for black churchgoers to make voting a group event); has required a state ID to vote, something many poor people cannot afford, and often have trouble getting to proper locations if they wish to buy it in person (a requirement); and now is preventing 16 and 17 year old high school students from preregistration; and not allowing college students from other states to use their college address so that they can vote in the state elections of the college or university they are attending and residing in for four or more years!

So we have a law suit against North Carolina, asserting that they are discouraging college and young voters from registering and voting, therefore trying to fix the elections, true voter fraud! And the constitutional case is the 26th Amendment of 1971, which allows 18-21 years old citizens to vote!

This is the new attempt at what used to be called “Jim Crow” laws, and the Republican Party is fully backing such denials in multiple states, right after the Supreme Court, wrongfully, weakened the Voting Rights Act of 1965, forgetting the struggles, bloodshed, and deaths suffered in the battle for voting rights. The ultimate civil right is voting rights!

What is clear is that when the states lose these battles, particularly regarding the 26th Amendment, they are guaranteeing the loss of the young vote for generations, as any intelligent young person voting for the party which worked to suppress its voting rights is as likely as “Hell Freezing Over!”