Midwestern States

The Electoral College Future May Be Bright For Democrats Soon, With Growing Hispanic Population In North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona

Ronald 3 Comments

Democrats are rightfully very gloomy one month after the election, with the close vote but loss in three “Blue” states–Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

But when one looks down the road, so to speak, the long range future of the party is bright, since the growth of Hispanic-Latino population, and even the Asian American population, is going to have the effect of changing “Red” states to “Blue” over the next decade.

North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona are moving toward a major change in their population, which cannot be reversed, and the Electoral College advantage will definitely be in favor of the Democrats, as a result.

North Carolina with 15 electoral votes, Georgia with 16 electoral votes, Texas with 38 electoral votes, and Arizona with 11 electoral votes, are all growing and becoming more population of these racial minorities, and all four states will have a growth in electoral votes after the Census of 2020 and reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives.

As it is now, these four states have 80 electoral votes, but will have a few more in the 2020s, more than enough to overcome the 46 electoral votes of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

The likelihood of any other of the remaining 15 solid “Blue” states, numbering 15 of the 20 states Hillary Clinton won, going “Red” are extremely unlikely—as the five New England states, four Middle Atlantic states and DC, two Midwestern states, and four Pacific Coast states are all rock solid. The 5 “swing” states that still went to Hillary Clinton–New Hampshire, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico–are also extremely unlikely to swing “Red”, as they did not give in to the sway of Donald Trump. The three western states are becoming more Hispanic and Asian American every year, and Virginia is influenced by its growing Northern Virginia suburbs of the nation’s capital, and New Hampshire by its proximity to Boston. Only New Hampshire might go to the Republicans, but the other four seem certain to remain in the Democratic camp, so New Hampshire with 4 electoral votes is not significant enough to worry about.

So the future is bright, but meanwhile, progressives have to build state parties and win seats in both houses of Congress, a tall order in the short run, but with the hope that long term, the prognosis is much better.

Remember that the three states taken by Trump, all in the Rust Belt, are likely to lose some seats in reapportionment, while the growing states likely to go “Blue” are all to gain seats, so the Electoral College future strongly favors the Democrats.

Just now, if one imagines those four “Red” states going Democratic in the future, the electoral vote of 232 for Hillary Clinton would become 312 with the 80 electoral votes!

And of course, do not write off that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania could revert to the Democratic camp, as the Trump wins were very small margin, less than one percent of all votes cast in the three states, and less than 80,000 votes in total!

“Coattails” Vs. “Split Ticket”: Which Will Occur In November?

Ronald 1 Comment

Now with two weeks to the election, speculation is rising that Hillary Clinton may win a landslide victory over Donald Trump, and that she might have “coattails”, help to carry in a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and Senate.

The Senate part of this equation seems very likely, but to gain the House of Representatives majority will be very difficult, with the Republicans having a 30 seat majority right now, greater than at any point since 1928.

The last time a President coming into office had the effect of switching both houses of Congress was 1952, when Dwight D. Eisenhower brought in Republican majorities, which, however, were lost by 1954.

After that, the House of Representatives did not fall into Republican hands again for 40 years, until 1994!

The Senate, however, did fall into Republican hands with the victory of Ronald Reagan in 1980, only to be reversed in 1986.

So best bet is that the House majority will be knocked down a great amount, maybe 20 seats gain, but short of a majority for the Democrats.

On the other hand, the Senate seems likely to turn over, and Hillary Clinton could help to switch the states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Illinois, Wisconsin, Arizona, as well as Indiana, and keeping Nevada, the only contested Democratic seat, meaning a eight state gain for the Democrats, from 46 seats to 54, and including the likely defeat of Marco Rubio and John McCain.

Missouri, a less likely state for Hillary Clinton, but within reach, could also see Jason Kander, the Democratic nominee, defeat Senator Roy Blunt, but not seen as such, unless Missouri reverts to being a bellwether state which it was for a century, but not so in 2012.

Iowa and Ohio seem more likely to keep Chuck Grassley and Rob Portman, even if Hillary Clinton wins their states.

So the idea of a “split ticket”, only 11 percent in recent election years, seems only likely in those two Midwestern states, and maybe in Missouri and Indiana, but Hillary likely to carry other states listed above and help to make the Senate Democratic majority.

Voter “Fraud”, Voter Suppression, Civil Rights, And The 26th Amendment!

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We hear Republicans claim “voter fraud”, which is a total fraud in itself, as the amount of voter fraud has been shown to be something like one billion of one percent!

There is no voter fraud to speak of, and if we are going to talk about voter fraud, what about the fraud in the vote count in Florida in the Presidential Election of 2000, which benefited George W. Bush over Al Gore; and the reported voter fraud in Ohio in the Presidential Election Of 2004, which again benefited George W. Bush, this time over John Kerry?

It is a fact that only in states that are seen as in danger of turning “blue”, do we see accusations of voter fraud, to insure that a “red” state will stay “red”! So we have seen the Southern states and some Midwestern states, which have passed voter suppression laws, affecting African Americans, Latinos, poor people, the elderly, and now, even the young.

So the classic case, but not the only one, is North Carolina, which now had cut down the number of voting days before Election Day; has stopped same day registration; has decided that early voting on the Sunday before the election shall be ended (what often is the method for black churchgoers to make voting a group event); has required a state ID to vote, something many poor people cannot afford, and often have trouble getting to proper locations if they wish to buy it in person (a requirement); and now is preventing 16 and 17 year old high school students from preregistration; and not allowing college students from other states to use their college address so that they can vote in the state elections of the college or university they are attending and residing in for four or more years!

So we have a law suit against North Carolina, asserting that they are discouraging college and young voters from registering and voting, therefore trying to fix the elections, true voter fraud! And the constitutional case is the 26th Amendment of 1971, which allows 18-21 years old citizens to vote!

This is the new attempt at what used to be called “Jim Crow” laws, and the Republican Party is fully backing such denials in multiple states, right after the Supreme Court, wrongfully, weakened the Voting Rights Act of 1965, forgetting the struggles, bloodshed, and deaths suffered in the battle for voting rights. The ultimate civil right is voting rights!

What is clear is that when the states lose these battles, particularly regarding the 26th Amendment, they are guaranteeing the loss of the young vote for generations, as any intelligent young person voting for the party which worked to suppress its voting rights is as likely as “Hell Freezing Over!”

44 Percent Of Americans Live In Same Sex Marriage States!

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As of this writing, 19 states and the District of Columbia allow same sex marriage, representing 44 percent of the American people! These states include Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii. This means the Northeastern states, the Pacific Coast states, and some Midwestern states are included in this list, all for now “Blue’ states!

Additionally, the following nine states have had federal or state judges declare that same sex marriage should be allowed, but appeals are holding up action on this matter–Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Utah, Idaho. This list includes three “Blue” and six “Red” states.

More limited decisions on same sex marriage being recognized from other states has occurred through judicial intervention in five states–Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Alaska. This is one “Blue” state and four “Red” states. Also, there has been some action on same sex unions in two states–Wisconsin and Nevada. Both of these states were Blue” states in 2012.

So 35 states and the District of Columbia have advanced on the subject in some form!

That leaves primarily Southern states and Mountain and Great Plains states out of the loop, nothing new in that regard! This list of 15 states not yet touched by same sex marriage rulings include North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, Wyoming, Arizona. Only Florida went “Blue” in 2012, with the other 14 states all being “Red”.

These 15 states represent the past, and nothing will stop the forward movement to allow same sex marriage in all of the United States in the next few years!

Our 18th Century Political System No Longer Works In The 21st Century!

Ronald 10 Comments

The Founding Fathers of the late 18th century created a political system that worked for a long time, despite many crises.

Sadly, it no longer works when one realizes that we have a system where land counts more than people, as in the US Senate!

The top NINE states in the 2010 US Census had a combined population which is a majority of the nation—California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan! So two Northeastern states, three Southern states, three Midwestern states, and one Western state are where the population is most concentrated!

Also, the next eleven states,in total, have over 25 percent of the total population. So that means TWENTY states have over 75 percent of the entire population of the country in their midst!

Also, if you add states 21-30, it adds another 15 percent of the nation’s population, and that means 90 percent of the country is in 30 states, while the other 20 states have less than ten percent of the entire population combined!

Also, 70 percent of the American population lives on TWO PERCENT of all of the land of the country!

Despite this, we have the 30 percent of the population living on 98 percent of the land, and 41 states out of 50, having the ability to dictate most actions of the Senate, and the House of Representatives!

And 30 states, having less than 25 percent of the total population, can, in theory, block action, or bring about action through the filibuster, in the Senate, with their 60 votes!

There is no immediate or long range solution to this reality, but it is important that people realize that the Founding Fathers, as brilliant as they were, could not, possibly, conceive how the nation would change over 225 years!

The Huffington Post Projection On The Election Today: Obama 277, Romney 191, And Five States In Play!

Ronald 6 Comments

According to the Huffington Post, this evening (October 25), the Electoral College total is Barack Obama 277, and Mitt Romney 191, with five states and 70 electoral votes in play!

According to the Huffington Post estimates, Obama is winning the “swing” states of the Midwest (Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin), along with Nevada.

The five states in play are the Southern states (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida), and also New Hampshire and Colorado.

But even if Romney wins all five states, with 70 electoral votes, he would only have 261, nine short of the number needed to win, with Obama having seven more than the number needed, 270.

It seems a good judgment that the Midwest is lost to Mitt Romney, based on early voting, and Romney’s refusal to back the auto industry survival ultimately will cost him the election, despite the overwhelming list of mistakes and blunders made by the Republican nominee for President.

There will be plenty of time after November 6 to analyze why Mitt Romney is another Presidential “loser”!