The Rapidly Growing Population Of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Texas Bode Well For Democrats By The 2020 Presidential Election!

Four states are rapidly growing in population, according to the Census Bureau, and all four, while “Red” states in the 2012 Presidential election, have the potential to turn “Blue” either in 2016 or certainly by 2020.

North Carolina seems most likely to go for Hillary Clinton, followed by Georgia and possibly Arizona. Longer term, there is Texas.

With North Carolina having 15, Georgia having 16, Arizona having 11, and Texas having 38 electoral votes now, it is certain that all four will have MORE electoral votes starting in 2024.

And Florida, a “swing” state with constantly growing population, particularly of increased Puerto Rican migration, has 29 electoral votes through the 2020 Presidential election, and assuredly will have more in 2024.

So it is highly likely that the Democratic Party will have, for sure, over 400 electoral votes by 2020, and if not, by 2024, an Electoral College landslide for the long term!

Add the present 80 electoral votes of the four presently “Red” states to the 332 that Barack Obama had in 2012, and you get 412 electoral votes, and again, more by 2024 after the reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives and in the Electoral College after the Census of 2020!

Add the Midwestern states of Indiana (11) and Missouri (10) and you get 433 electoral votes to 105 for the Republicans, but again with probably more total electoral votes by gaining of population in the four Sunbelt states, even with the chance that Indiana and Missouri will not gain, and might lose a seat each.

So expect the chance that the total number of electoral votes could, and with the addition of Florida and California gaining seats as well, be in the high 430s!

12 comments on “The Rapidly Growing Population Of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Texas Bode Well For Democrats By The 2020 Presidential Election!

  1. Fred Searcy July 9, 2016 7:59 am

    It really doesn’t matter. Unless the democratic party can win state offices and national offices for house and senate, the country will still be in gridlock. Democrats can win all the national elections that want for President. It does give them supreme court choice but no guarantee they can get that choice through the senate. It’s the state legislatures that matter.

  2. Ronald July 9, 2016 8:14 am

    You are totally correct, Fred.

    That is why Democrats need to come out in midterm elections, and spend more effort in getting their friends and family to vote, and not just for the Presidency!

  3. D July 9, 2016 6:14 pm

    I was giving thought to the fact that North Carolina and its immediate neighbor to the north, Virginia, rarely carry differently in presidential elections. In 2012, they voted differently. And before that it was in 1976. Of the 25 presidential elections from 1916 to 2012, the two other occurrences were the 1950s elections of Dwight Eisenhower and the 1960 Democratic pickup for John Kennedy in which he did win over North Carolina but became the first Democrat elected without carriage of Virginia.

    With the electoral map having realigned (the Confederacy having flipped from D to R) and counter-realigned (the North, especially industrial and Rust Belt states, having flipped from R to D), it turns out that 2012 marked the first time that, when these two states have carried differently officially, it was North Carolina which voted Republican [Mitt Romney] and Virginia which carried Democratic [Barack Obama]. But, with Eisenhower, he carried Virginia both times but narrowly missed flipping North Carolina with his re-election in 1956. (Adlai Stevenson held it by D+1.32—that is, 50.66 percent for Stevenson to 49.34 percent for Eisenhower.) And, I don’t mind noting that, for every state which carried for one or both of Bill Clinton’s elections from the 1990s…they also voted for Eisenhower with exceptions of Clinton’s home state Arkansas and Georgia; and every state which carried for Barack Obama, between 2008 and 2012, were also carried by Eisenhower with exception of North Carolina.

    Since 1984, Virginia and North Carolina have never had a margins spread which was +6 percentage points or greater. What helped Virginia be within reach, and eventually flippable, for the Democrats was that it had been trended from being slightly under +10 in its tilt for the Rs beginning in 1996. That marked the first time Virginia was more in reach for Democrats than was North Carolina. Aside from the bellwether state Florida, Virginia turned out to be the weakest Confederacy state for voting support for Republican president George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004. It trended from +8 (in 2000) to +6 (in 2004) for its Republican tilt for Bush. In 2008, when Barack Obama won his Democratic pickup of the state, Virginia moved swiftly to bellwether status. It was No. 1 in both 2008 and 2012 with reflecting statewide margins to closely match the nation. (In 2008, Obama won the popular vote by D+7.26 and Virginia by D+6.30, a spread of only 0.96. In 2012, a re-elected Obama won the popular vote by D+3.86 and Virginia by D+3.88, a spread of a mere 0.02.) North Carolina started trending away from the GOP in 2004. Bush won North Carolina in 2000 at +13 percentage points more Republican than the nation. In 2004, it came down to +10 in its Republican tilt. When Barack Obama won a Democratic pickup of the state in 2008, it came down to a Republican tilt of +7. In 2012, with losing Republican Mitt Romney have flipped the state, to carry it by only +2.04, it tilted +6 to the Rs.

    Strictly comparing Virginia and North Carolina: Today’s Democrats, with base states like California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey—the “Blue Firewall” states (as “National Journal’s” Ron Brownstein labeled them)—are better able to get Virginia just before North Carolina. A relatively close election, with the percentage-points margin of the U.S. Popular Vote, and one which sees these two states carry differently officially, will result in North Carolina side with a losing Republican (as it did that for Mitt Romney in 2012).

    My assessment is that North Carolina trends one to two presidential election cycles behind Virginia with respect for its political potency to become a bellwether state. And it may do just that here in 2016. One of the best examples of a bellwether state is when it habitually carries within 5 percentage points from the margin in the U.S. Popular Vote…and that it routinely carries for winners one presidential election cycle followed by the next. This is why Ohio is the most reputable bellwether state. It has been doing this since 1964, and it maintains the longest stretch of getting it right with 13 consecutive cycles with date back to 1964. (It will become 14, here in 2016, thanks to Ohio’s 2012 gender-vote percentages having Barack Obama’s performance nationwide. And, also of note, Ohio has carried for presidential winners in all elections, with exceptions of 1944 and 1960, since 1896.) With Florida being about two percentage points more Republican than Ohio, that also explains why Florida (which has voted for every presidential winner, except those in 1960 and 1992, since 1928) is also a bellwether. (It has performed five percentage points or less from the popular-vote margins since 1996.) Colorado and Virginia have been close, in their margins spread, to each other in every presidential election since 1996. (They have carried the same in all, except for 1992, since 1948.) So, with it being one or two cycles behind its neighbor to the north, the next state to emerge as a presidential bellwether state will be North Carolina.

    From 1984 to 2012, which number eight presidential election cycles, here were the margin spreads between Virginia and North Carolina:

    ***** MARGINS SPREAD, 1984–2012: VIRGINIA vs. NORTH CAROLINA *****
    • 1984: VA: R+25.20 | NC: R+24.01 (Spread: 1.19)
    • 1988: VA: R+20.51 | NC: R+16.26 (Spread: 4.25)
    • 1992: VA: R+4.38 | NC: R+0.79 (Spread: 3.59)
    • 1996: VA: R+1.95 | NC: R+4.69 (Spread: 2.74)
    • 2000: VA: R+8.03 | NC: R+12.83 (Spread: 4.80)
    • 2004: VA: R+8.20 | NC: R+12.44 (Spread: 4.24)
    • 2008: VA: D+6.30 | NC: D+0.32 (Spread: 5.98)
    • 2012: VA: D+3.88 | NC: R+2.04 (Spread: 5.92)
    *** AVERAGE SPREAD: 32.71, divided by 8 cycles, equals 4.08 percentage points ***

    I may have another response, later, but wanted to respond first with a comparison of these two neighboring states. Virginia appears to lately be the most interesting state politically, because, well, ‘As Virginia goes…so goes the nation’—but, on Election Night 2016, the one state we may really want to be looking at, even more than Virginia, with regard for how the night will play out is … North Carolina. With Hillary Clinton’s national polling numbers pointing toward a Democratic gain of +6 to +10, over a 2012 Barack Obama’s +4, I suspect the incumbent Republican Party is going to take hits at all three levels in the Tar Heel State for: U.S. President, U.S. Senator, and Governor of North Carolina—with Democratic pickups on all counts.

  4. Ronald July 9, 2016 10:38 pm

    Wow, again, what a great analysis, D, almost mind boggling, and again I commend you for your talent in compiling these statistics.

    I am curious as to what your occupation is, which you could send a response privately, as you are truly brilliant in your contributions! So I would appreciate your letting me know, and thanks! 🙂

  5. Paul Doyle July 10, 2016 8:35 am

    Professor, I think D belongs to a new strain of a political party–
    He’s a Demograph. LOL!

    Great stuff!

  6. Ronald July 10, 2016 9:06 am

    HAHA, Yes, I really appreciate his contributions, yours, and that of the other various regular contributors.

    And have you noticed that Mercy is gone, the troll? LOL

  7. Pragmatic Progressive July 10, 2016 1:05 pm

    I’ve been noticing that he/she is gone for some time now. Thank Goodness!

  8. Paul Doyle July 10, 2016 10:13 pm

    Remember, Professor.
    The Catholic Church has designated this a year for spiritual works of Mercy:

    To Instruct the Ignorant
    To bear wrongs patiently
    are two of them. Your work is not done. LOL!

  9. Ronald July 10, 2016 10:41 pm

    Paul, you are correct! LOL

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