Virginia

Final Projection On Congressional Elections Of 2020

With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.

The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.

Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.

The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.

The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:

Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally

Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner

Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins

Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue

Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines

North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis

Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst

Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall

South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham

Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.

Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!

Democrats Gaining In Southeast And Southwest, Likely Transforming American Politics In The 2020s

Indications are that Democrats are starting to gain support in both the Southeast (North Carolina, Georgia) and the Southwest (Arizona), and are running even in Florida and Texas, and keeping their lead in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

If this trend continues, the Midwest Rust Belt states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania), while still important, will be less significant in future Presidential elections.

And it looks as if many of the Senate seats that are being decided this November will end up with a Democratic Senator–as in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.

The electoral map in future elections will be vastly different than it has been in previous election rounds.

Trumpites Put Profit Above Life With Actions In Michigan And Kentucky, And At Houses Of Worship

It is now clear that Trumpites put profit above life, as shown by their marches and demonstrations in Michigan, Kentucky, and threatened actions in North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, protesting the shutdowns ordered by those states’ Democratic governors and Ohio’s Republican Governor.

A number of Christian houses of worship, run by pastors who are always looking for adulation and money, also have endangered their clueless, gullible congregants by holding Easter Sunday services, and denouncing what they call interference with freedom of religion. That was not the purpose of the states’ governors who worry about the spread of the CoronaVirus.

It is essential for the Democratic governors, along with the intelligent, sensible Republican governors of states, including Massachusetts, Maryland, and Ohio, to hold fast and not give in to pressure to reopen society at a delicate time as now!

Will South Carolina Be Joe Biden’s Last Hurrah?

Indications are, based on recent public opinion polls, that former Vice President Joe Biden is likely to win the South Carolina Presidential Primary this Saturday, by a substantial margin.

The endorsement by African American Congressman and House Majority Whip James Clyburn of Biden is a real boost to Biden’s candidacy.

But the question is whether the upcoming vote is the last Hurrah for Biden, as he lacks adequate financial resources, and is not showing up well in Super Tuesday primaries next Tuesday, when 14 states, including California, Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Colorado as the most significant states, conduct their elections. Senator Bernie Sanders is favored to win most of those primaries.

Winning South Carolina might help, but it is only three days to those Super Tuesday primaries, so if Biden does poorly on Tuesday, March 3, it likely will be the end of his dream of becoming the 46th President of the United States!

Tonight’s South Carolina Democratic Presidential Debate A Turning Point

It is clear that Tuesday night’s CBS South Carolina Democratic Presidential debate is a turning point, as Senator Bernie Sanders will have the tremendous advantage if he wins the South Carolina Primary this Saturday.

Sanders is self destructing, however, with his inability to stop praising Cuba under Fidel Castro, and the Chinese government of President Xi Jinping, ignoring their violations of human rights, while improving education and health care.

Sanders seems totally deaf to warnings that he must repudiate his past extreme leftist views on Nicaragua and the Soviet Union in the 1980s, as that is a guarantee to cause the loss of Florida at the least, and likely cause the industrial Midwest and the Southwest to run away from his candidacy, if he is the Democratic nominee for President.

How Sanders could win states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, is impossible to conceive.

Also, any hope of winning Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and come within striking distance of Texas, would be totally gone with a Sanders Presidential candidacy.

And Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada could be in danger, as well as New Hampshire and Virginia, all won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

And this is without addressing the “democratic Socialism” label that Sanders embraces, and his unwillingness to fully explain how all of his ambitious programs, which sound great on paper, could possibly be achieved through Congressional action.

The importance of the federal judiciary and the Supreme Court is at stake, and the nation cannot afford more right wing judges and Justices if Donald Trump is reelected.

Hopefully, we will see moderates unite around one candidate to oppose Sanders after Super Tuesday next week, with the best bet now seeming to be Pete Buttigieg, unless Joe Biden has a major rehabilitation by voters in South Carolina and the 14 states of Super Tuesday.

Is Bernie Sanders An Unstoppable Juggernaut? Not So Fast!

Senator Bernie Sanders’ impressive win in Nevada is a warning sign to many mainstream Democrats that he is unstoppable.

Not so fast, as one cannot judge the battle for the Democratic Presidential nomination based on three small states.

Super Tuesday will be the decisive moment, if any candidate can win the vast number of delegates from the 14 states having primaries on that date, including California, Texas, Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Massachusetts.

After Nevada, however, the candidates that still have a chance to stop Bernie are likely Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden, with the bet being that Pete is more likely.

The debate on CBS this coming Tuesday, followed by the South Carolina Primary on Saturday, will be the stepping stone for Tuesday, March 3!

Alabama Democratic Senator Doug Jones Deserves Everyone’s Support For Reelection For His Courage In Voting To Convict Donald Trump

Senator Mitt Romney of Utah deserves a lot of credit for his decision to convict Donald Trump on one impeachment count.

But Democratic Senator Doug Jones of Alabama deserves equal respect and financial support from anyone who realizes what a gamble he took in voting to convict Trump on both impeachment counts, in a state where the Republican Party has such a strong hold.

Jones is one of only three Democratic Senators in the states that made up the Civil War Confederate States, only joined by Virginia’s two Senators, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner.

Jones has distinguished himself as a “Profile in Courage” in his two years in the Senate, succeeding the infamous Jeff Sessions, and defeating the equally infamous Roy Moore, former Alabama Supreme Court Justice, in the special election that followed.

Jones faces either Sessions or Moore in November, and is the one really endangered Democratic Senator up for reelection.

Let us hope that many contribute to keep Doug Jones in the US Senate!

Realize that Jones was able to have a successful prosecution of those involved in the infamous 16th Street Baptist Church Bombing in Birmingham in 1963, which killed four African American young girls, bringing the perpetrators to justice in 2001 and 2002, nearly four decades after the horrific event.

This is a good, decent man, and Alabama and the nation deserve him to stay in the US Senate!

The Caucus-Primary System In The Future Needs To Be Reformed

The Caucus-Primary system for Presidential elections needs to be reformed, as it is clear that having Iowa and New Hampshire go first, with both being totally lacking in diversity, is not a system for the long term.

The argument could be that California and Texas should go first, as they are very diverse and together have about 20 percent of the national population.

Add states such as Wisconsin and Virginia, and that would be a good start toward a system that would be much more amenable to the promotion of racial and ethnic diversity in a nation that will be majority non white in a generation. Therefore, it would be more reflective of reality, and allow minority candidates a better chance to survival in the process.

It is sad that Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, and Cory Booker have been forced out of the Presidential race for the Democrats, due to lack of financial support. Hopefully, the future can be different.

A Sense Of What Might Happen In The Presidential Election Of 2020

This blogger and author has been away for a few days, and has decided to wait until we know the results of the few elections taking place in 2019, before making an educated guess on the Presidential Election Of 2020. With the upset victory of Andy Beshear over Matt Bevin for the Kentucky Governorship, and the gaining of the majority in both houses of the Virginia legislature for the first time in a quarter century, the situation for Democrats looks very promising for 2020.

Understand, without a clear answer as to who the Democratic Presidential nominee will be, it is far from easy to judge how the nation will go a year from now.

But with signs that college educated people, inner suburbs, women, African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, and young people are alienated from Donald Trump and the Republican Party, here is my estimate of what might happen, subject to change, and a final judgment in late October of 2020.

Let us begin with what states are assured to be in the Democratic camp next year:

New England states—Maine (including the 2nd Congressional district which went to Donald Trump in 2016), Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island–a total of 33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic states–New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia—a total of 59 electoral votes

Southern states—Virginia—13 electoral votes

Midwest states—Illinois, Minnesota—30 electoral votes

Mountain West states—New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado—20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast states—California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii—78 electoral votes

This group of guaranteed states for the Democrats number 20 plus DC, and a total of 233 electoral votes, 37 short of the number needed to win the Presidency.

Now, states likely to go to the Democrats in order of odds—Arizona (11) and Florida (29)–a total of 40 electoral votes, giving the Democrats 273 electoral votes, 3 more than needed to win the Presidency.

Other states that might go to the Democrats—in order of odds—Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16)—a total of 77 additional electoral votes.

This would make for a total of 27 states plus DC, and a grand total of 350 electoral votes.

But also, one more electoral vote is possible, the 2nd Congressional district of Nebraska (Omaha metropolitan area), which voted for Barack Obama in 2008, so a final total of 351 electoral votes, leaving 187 electoral votes for Donald Trump or Mike Pence, or whoever the Republican Presidential nominee might be.

So the Republicans would win 23 states—West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas (all in the South)–Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska except for the 2nd Congressional District, Kansas, Oklahoma in the Midwest and Great Plains—and Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska in the Mountain West—a total of 187 electoral votes!

I welcome commentary on my estimate, and it will be an exciting year to November 3, 2020!

16 Months To Election: 15 States In Contention In Electoral College

With 16 months until the Presidential Election of 2020, the election is settled in 35 states, and the remaining 15 states are in contention, and will decide the Electoral College and the winner of the Presidency.

8 states were Republican last time, but are, in theory, in contention:

Arizona

Florida

Georgia

Michigan

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Texas

Wisconsin

Additionally, Nebraska is Republican, but allows split electoral votes since 1992, and in 2008, Barack Obama won the 2nd District electoral vote, so in theory, that district, including Omaha and its suburbs, is in contention.

The Democrats won 5 states that are, in theory, in contention:

Colorado

Minnesota

Nevada

New Hampshire

Virginia.

Additionally, Maine is Democratic, but allows split electoral votes since 1972, and Donald Trump won the 2nd District electoral vote, so in theory, that district, including most of the state away from Portland, Augusta and nearby coastal areas, is in contention.

So both Nebraska and Maine have the potential to see one electoral vote go to the loser of the state, in the statewide race.

If the Hispanic-Latino vote can be magnified for the Democrats, it gives them the chance to win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

The close Democratic majorities in their five states in contention—Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia—give the Republicans the opportunity to pick up electoral votes there.

It seems clear at this time that when and if the Hispanic-Latino vote increases enough for the Democrats, likely by 2024 and 2028, and with increased electoral votes in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas assured after the 2020 Census, then the Democrats could have a lock on the Presidency for the long term, even if the Midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin become more Republican, and even if Minnesota and Virginia were to become more competitive for the Republicans. And Colorado and Nevada, with increased Hispanic-Latino influence over the next decade, would be more assuredly Democratic as well.

Even Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nebraska would matter far less, as well as Ohio, which now looks out of contention for the Democrats at present.