Virginia

Likely Changes In Electoral Votes And Congressional Seats As Result Of 2020 Census Figures

We are two years away from the 2020 Census, which will determine:

Electoral Vote Changes for 15 or 16 states
Congressional Seat Changes for 15 or 16 states
Federal Funding of Domestic Programs for all states

With Donald Trump’s attempt to cut population growth in the Census by putting fear into undocumented immigrants filling out the Census forms, it could affect all of the above.

As things now stand, 6 states are certain to gain electoral votes and Congressional seats, while 9 other states lose electoral votes by 2024, and Congressional seats by the 2022 midterm elections.

Interestingly, California, which has regularly gained multiple seats for decades, has not grown enough in comparison to the total population of the entire nation, so will for the first time ever gain no seats at all. Of course, with many undocumented immigrants, more than any other state, there is a theoretical possibility that California could, conceivably, lose a seat if enough of this group do not fill out Census forms.

The state of Virginia also has not grown enough, just like California, so is unlikely to gain a new electoral vote or Congressional seat.

Texas will likely gain 3 electoral votes and seats, while Florida will gain 2, and with Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, and Oregon all gaining one each. All these states are in the Sun Belt, except Oregon in the Pacific Northwest.

So a total of 9 seats and electoral votes will be gained by a total of 6 states, which means those 9 seats will come from 9 different states, with 7 coming from the Northeast (Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania) and Midwest (Ohio, Michigan Minnesota, Illinois), and two from the South (West Virginia, Alabama).

It is also possible with changes in population in the next three years, that an additional seat could be lost by Illinois, and gained by Montana in the Pacific Northwest, which has lost a seat before, and might gain it back.

So at a maximum, 16 states will see their electoral votes and Congressional seats change, 7 gaining as a maximum and 9 losing as a maximum. The other 34 states will have no change at all.

Also, with Rhode Island about to lose a seat, it will be left with only one Representative At Large, joining Alaska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Delaware, assuming Montana gains a seat. Otherwise, the total number of states with only one House seat would grow from 7 to 8.

Conor Lamb Victory In Pennsylvania Congressional Race Indication Of Major Democratic Wave This November In Midterm Elections!

Democrat Conor Lamb won the Pennsylvania Congressional race in a strongly gerrymandered Republican district won by Donald Trump in 2016 by more than 20 points.

This should not have happened, and it is a sign of a major Democratic wave this November in midterm Congressional elections.

There are 119 GOP districts which are not as strongly Republican in 2016 as this particular Pennsylvania district.

The suburbs are starting to turn against Republicans nationwide, and that is the key to Democratic victory.

Joe Biden campaigned for Lamb, while Trump campaigned for the Republican nominee, and almost completely ignored him on Saturday night, as he gave the most unhinged imaginable speech, making a fool of himself, and every time Trump gives a crazy speech, he is losing support.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden was a major factor for Lamb, and this will boost his expected Presidential campaign.

People are starting to back away from Trump and his party, and remember only 23 seats are needed as a minimum to gain control of the House of Representatives. Many Republicans have decided not to run for reelection, and those numbers will now grow as a result of this Republican defeat yesterday.

The Democrats have now won 43 races since November 2016, while the Republicans have won just 4, and this includes the Governors of New Jersey and Virginia, and the Alabama Senate seat.

The tide is turning, and the key thing is not expecting that all Democrats must be hard left, as that is a prescription for disaster, and there is a need for more moderate Democrats, who will disappoint on some bills, but will generally back the party when push comes to shove.

17 Democratic Senators Have Learned Nothing From Great Recession, And Are To Be Condemned For Joining Republicans To Cut Back Banking Reforms

In 2008-2009, we saw the collapse of the American economy, with the biggest banks and Wall Street firms guilty of causing it.

None of those banks or Wall Street firms paid a price for their illegal, unethical activities, which destroyed the economy in a manner unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Under Barack Obama, the Dodd-Frank Law was passed to insure accountability of banks and Wall Street, so that what happened a decade ago would never happen again.

But now, under a Republican Congress, the action to destroy the Dodd_Frank Law is occurring, and has been assisted by 17 Democratic Senators, and only with at least 10 of them, could such action to eliminate Dodd-Frank have moved forward.

It is shocking to see 17 of the 49 Democrats and Independents in the Senate become turncoats who effectively joined in this evil act, and all 17 need to be called out and denounced.

The problem is too many politicians gain campaign contributions from the big banks and Wall Street, so it compromises their ability to represent their states in a proper manner.

The problem is that if these Democrats are repudiated, it would only aid Republicans in possibly gaining their seats, so the issue is that it is preferable to have Democrats who will support the party on many issues, even if not on this issue.

Liberals and progressives will argue that they should be “primaried”, but the reality is that would only help promote more Republican senators, so we are in an area that could be described as “between the devil and the deep blue sea”!

But we must at least list these 17 Senators, so we are all aware of their “treason”:

Michael Bennet of Colorado
Tom Carper of Delaware
Chris Coons of Delaware
Joe Donnelly of Indiana
Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire
Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota
Doug Jones of Alabama
Tim Kaine of Virginia
Angus King of Maine (Independent)
Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Claire McCaskill of Missouri
Bill Nelson of Florida
Gary Peters of Michigan
Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
Jon Tester of Montana
Mark Warner of Virginia

Ten of these 17 Senators face an election in 2018—Carper, Donnelly, Heitkamp, Kaine, King, Manchin, McCaskill, Nelson, Stabenow, and Tester.

Of these 10, only Carper, Kaine and King are in states that went to the Democrats. The other seven were Republican states, and makes the task of keeping their seats ever more difficult.

Of the 17 Senators, only 8 of them, those from Colorado, Delaware (2), New Hampshire (2), Virginia (2), and Maine came from states carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

So, sadly, we do not have the privilege and ability to call for the defeat of the ten who are running this year, but even true of the seven who are not running, as they are still better than Republicans to hold the seats.

Otherwise, the Democrats will lose all chance of ever gaining a majority, if they stick to an extreme progressive view of who is acceptable as a Democratic member of the US Senate.

However, one point should be made clear, that none of this list above should ever be considered seriously for President, with the reality that only the two Virginia Senators, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, are even talked about at all as potential nominees.

Tim Kaine may have run for Vice President with Hillary Clinton in 2016, but his support of repeal of the Dodd Frank Law should disqualify him and Warner for future Presidential consideration.

The Key To A Majority Of Democrats In House Of Representatives: Gains In New York, New Jersey, Virginia, Illinois, California

Five “Blue” States for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats have a total of 42 seats of Republicans in the House of Representatives—New York, New Jersey, Virginia, Illinois, California.

All of these states, except Illinois, presently have Democratic Governors, with Bruce Rauner in great trouble in trying to win reelection in Illinois, including the possible Democratic challenger being Chris Kennedy, one of the sons of Robert F. Kennedy.

Five out of nine in New York; four out of five in New Jersey; four out of seven in Virginia; four out of seven in Illinois; and eight out of fourteen in California—these are the vulnerable seats, a total of 25, with the Democrats needing 24 seats to gain majority control of the House of Representatives.

Not all will be won, of course, but some of these Republicans have decided not to seek reelection, which makes their seats even more likely to switch. Altogether, 25 of the 42 seats that are presently Republican in these five states are in play.

of course, there are many other vulnerable seats for Republicans, but if a high percentage of these seats in the five “Blue” states go Democratic, then it is assured that the Democrats will gain majority control in November 2018.

Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania also have contested seats that could go Democratic, so the real battleground is the five “Blue” states and these three states that went to Donald Trump.

Stephen Miller Needs To Be Kicked Out Of Trump Administration And Face Investigation, As He Is Most Dangerous Person Around Trump!

Who would think a 32 year old bully, racist, white supremacist, and nativist, with the credentials of having been on the staff of former Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, and former Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions, would end up becoming in many ways the most dangerous person around Donald Trump?

This blogger and author is referring to Stephen Miller, a disgrace to the Jewish people and religion, who has somehow become the center of the debate over immigration, and is helping to push the President toward extremism on many issues, including immigration and civil rights.

Miller was brought up in a liberal leaning Jewish family in Santa Monica, California, with his mother’s family having escaped from Belarus in the early 20th century, coming to America as non English speaking immigrants who achieved the “American Dream”, that now Miller wishes to deny immigrants from Latin America and from the Middle Eastern nations, including Muslims, and Africa.

In high school, Miller showed intolerance, as he promoted right wing conservatism, including the extremism of National Rifle Association spokesman Wayne La Pierre, and spoke on right wing talk radio as young as 16 years of age. He stirred controversy as he promoted white supremacist views in high school and at Duke University. He had a constant confrontational attitude, and befriended white supremacist Richard Spencer and right wing propagandist David Horowitz, another Jewish public figure who had once been on the left, and then became connected to the Far Right, and has promoted attacks on academic freedom of left leaning college professors.

Miller helped future Virginia Congressman David Brat defeat House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014, and went to work for the Trump campaign early in 2016, and became the warmup speaker for many Trump campaign rallies, and helped to write Trump’s speech accepting the Republican National Convention nomination for President. He became a senior adviser to the White House, connecting himself closely to Stephen Bannon, but has lately separated himself from Bannon, since Bannon left the White House staff and was shown to have given ammunition against Trump in the recently published Michael Wolff blockbuster book, FIRE AND FURY, which has become a best seller. Miller remains closely allied with Trump son in law Jared Kushner, who also looks more outrageous and objectionable on a daily basis, and may be involved in Trump Administration corruption.

Miller helped to write the controversial Inauguration speech of Donald Trump, and has made controversial and confrontational statements on various Sunday news shows, including that the President had absolute authority and “will not be questioned”. He confronted Jim Acosta of CNN about immigration, at a White House appearance in which Miller defended travel bans against Muslims and the promotion of limiting immigration from various parts of the world, against many nations. Most recently, he became combative against Jake Tapper of CNN, and was cut off by the host, and then refused to leave, and was escorted out by security guards.

Stephen Miller is a racist, nativist, white supremacist, all despite the fact of his Jewish heritage, and he is a disgrace, and needs to be kicked out of the Trump Administration and face investigation in the Trump scandals, as Robert Mueller is in the process of doing.

He is clearly the most dangerous person around Trump now, influencing Trump to the point of the present government shutdown, preventing any protection of “Dreamers”, the immigrant children who were protected under the DACA program, but now face deportation to nations they know nothing about, but where they were born before being brought to America as children.

Miller is a peddler of hate, who needs his comeuppance, and should never again be allowed to be interviewed on any news program, unless and until he apologizes for his misbehavior, which most assuredly will never happen.

The thought that comes to mind is that Stephen Miller is the equivalent of Roy Cohn to Senator Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin, infamous for the Red Scare of the 1950s, or Rasputin, the adviser to Czar Nicholas II of Russia, before the Russian Revolution of 1917. In other words, Miller is an evil and dangerous force, who needs to have his rapid gaining of power taken away from him now!

Off Shore Drilling Prevented In Florida By Rick Scott Intervention: Time To Prevent All Off Shore Drilling On All Coasts Of United States!

The Trump Administration and Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke have called for open offshore drilling off the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts, and in the waters surrounding Alaska, a violation of past environmental policies.

Favoring the oil and gas industries over the preservation of our coastlines is an outrage, and all Governors of the states affected have protested, rightfully.

But already, Republican Governor Rick Scott of Florida, who plans to run for Bill Nelson’s Senate seat this fall, has joined Nelson and Republican Senator Marco Rubio in pressing for leaving Florida out of the offshore drilling edict, and the Trump Administration and Zinke have caved in, clearly for political reasons.

But that is not enough, as all states with ocean shoreline should be freed from this cave in to the oil and gas industry, and we do NOT need such exploration of our oceans, and too many oil spills and accidents have occurred, which kill of ocean life and pollute the waters.

The problem is that most of the coastal states are “blue”, or Democratic states,in New England, the Middle Atlantic, and the Pacific Coast. This includes Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia, with only the latter three being Republican states, as is Florida. The Pacific Coast states include Washington, Oregon, and California, along with Hawaii and Alaska, with all but Alaska being Democratic states. Alaska, Florida, and California are the top three in coastline waters.

This should not be a political issue, and the fight to protect our wetlands is one that must be fought in a vehement, no holds barred, manner.

It should also include any new drilling in the Great Lakes area and along our various river systems, as we need to move toward alternative sources of energy, as so many nations in Europe, particularly Germany as an example, are doing.

As 2017 Ends, Trump Approval Rating In Rapid Decline, And Democrats In Rapid Rise Among Major Voting Groups

As 2017 ends, Donald Trump is in free fall in his approval rating.

CNN has just come up with new figures that show the Trump base is rapidly declining in its support of the person they backed in 2016.

The approval rating overall has dropped to an all time low of 32 percent from a high in February of 39 percent right after Trump’s inauguration.

Republicans have dropped from 84 percent to 76 percent in their support, shocking in the fact it has not dropped much more, and a sign that the GOP might be in its death knell, as many observers have predicted.

Men have declined in support from 45 percent to 40 percent.

Whites support for Trump dropped from 49 percent to 41 percent.

Those over 50 years of age declined in support of Trump from 47 percent to 38 percent.

White Evangelicals, a major part of Trump support, despite the hypocrisy involved, went from 78 percent to 61 percent.

And White Non College support went from 56 percent to 46 percent.

When specific groups of voters have dropped 5 points to 17 points in nine months, that is a danger sign for the future.

Beyond these specific groups, it is clear that women, young voters, suburbanites, college educated, and African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans are clearly going over to the Democratic Party, and this is what fueled victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and Alabama.

So the future bodes well for the Democratic Party in the upcoming Congressional and Gubernatorial and state legislative races in November 2018.

Fox News Channel Promoting False Concept Of “Coup” Against Donald Trump By Robert Mueller, When The Threat Is Of Trump Grabbing Absolute Power!

Fox News Channel is engaged in a full scale promotion of the concept of a “coup” being waged against President Donald Trump by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

That right wing propaganda channel, which ignorant, uninformed people think is a news channel, is stirring up hatemongers and congressional Republicans to wage war on Mueller and his investigation of the numerous Trump scandals.

Particularly disgraceful and despicable are Sean Hannity and Judge Jeanine Pirro, both highly trained in sensationalism, hyperbole, and conspiracy theories.

They are enriching themselves in the process of their sycophantic worship of the most dangerous President in American history.

One or both could be swept up in the scandals, as both have links to the White House, and are willing to spread lies on a daily basis.

Only Shepard Smith is gutsy and courageous enough to contradict these sycophants and others at Fox News Channel.

Additionally, there are a large group of principled conservatives who have been critical of and have denounced Donald Trump since before he won the Presidency in a false manner. The list of such conservatives and Republicans is long and distinguished, although it does not include many elected Republicans.

The reality is Hannity and Pirro are promoting the concept of a coup to seize absolute power, and suspend the Bill of Rights and the Constitution, and promote the closing down of a free media, and a judiciary that defends the rule of law. They are supportive of a maniacal, unstable President who admires the authoritarianism of Vladimir Putin, who clearly has a hold over him, and helped him to win the Presidential Election of 2016 in an unethical and illegal manner.

Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, warned us of the threat of the firing of Robert Mueller, and if that occurs, the people must go out into the streets of every American city in large numbers to protest and resist such unconstitutional grabbing of power by the 45th President.

The White, Educated, Republican Suburbs Moving Toward Democratic Party In Age Of Donald Trump

Early signs are that the white, educated Republican suburbs are moving toward the Democratic Party in the age of Donald Trump.

If one goes by the elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and now Alabama, that seems the beginning of a trend.

The Democrats need to pursue this, rather than just attack Donald Trump.

They need to emphasize job growth, education, health care, and the dangers to our national security represented by the “bromance” between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, what seems like Russian Collusion.

They need to show that they have a positive program of change, and rally people around the harm to our environment and consumer protection by the Trump Presidency, as well as the harm done with unqualified judicial appointments, and in our diplomacy with other nations.

If the Democrats work to offer alternatives and point out common goals for people of all races, and both genders, they can win the majority in both houses of the Congress, in many state legislatures, and in the gubernatorial races coming up in November 2018.

Magnificent Victory For Doug Jones In Alabama: Its Meaning

Last night’s magnificent victory in Alabama for Doug Jones in the special election to replace Jeff Sessions in the US Senate has so many meanings.

It is a total repudiation of the despicable former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore.

It is a total repudiation of Donald Trump, who now has lost twice in Alabama, after doing so well in that state in 2016. He lost with Luther Strange and now with Roy Moore.

It is a total repudiation of Steve Bannon, and his continued assault on the “Establishment” in the Republican Party, and is likely to lead to a Democratic House and Senate in the 2018 Midterm Congressional elections.

It is a total repudiation of disgraceful talk show host Sean Hannity on Fox News Channel, who could end up possibly implicated in the Trump Scandals being investigated by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

On a positive vein, it demonstrates that the forces of good are there, even in Alabama, as African Americans, Latinos, women, and young people came out and voted in an off year special election at much higher rates than projected.

It is also a tribute to conservative mainstream Republican Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama, who refused to endorse and support Roy Moore, and told his supporters that he had voted a write in candidate, and that they could do so as well. As it turns out, if all of the write in votes had gone to Moore, it would have been a victory for the combative former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court.

It was also a sign of just how good and decent Doug Jones was and is, as a prosecutor who, almost 40 years later, was able to gain convictions of Ku Klux Klansmen who killed those four young African American girls in that despicable church bombing in Birmingham in 1963. It was wonderful seeing African Americans on the stage with Jones at his victory celebration, showing the race issue does not have to divide Alabama or America.

It is also a sign of the significance of campaign adviser Joe Trippi, who earlier had worked for Walter Mondale, Gary Hart, Jerry Brown, Dick Gephardt, Ted Kennedy, and John Edwards in their various campaigns. What a great adviser Joe Trippi is!

This blogger was emotional about this great victory last night, and more so than even the great victories in New Jersey and particularly Virginia in the November off year elections.

Now it is time to move forward and force Donald Trump, who has divided America in so many hateful ways, to face the punishment he deserves, which is potential impeachment, with moral turpitude to be added to Russian Collusion, Obstruction of Justice, Abuse of Power, and Violation of the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution.

It is also time for the top people around Trump to show they have courage and to demand he resign or they resign en masse. This includes John Kelly, H. R. McMaster, James Mattis, Rex Tillerson, and Nikki Haley.

The time for the cancer of Donald Trump to be excised has come, and the Democrats must use Trump against the Republicans, if they refuse to take responsibility for the dangers and authoritarianism that he represents.

It is time for the Republicans to put nation over party.