Grover Cleveland

The Republican Presidential Campaign Has Begun, With Trump Soon To Be Indicted, So Out Of The Running!

Here we are in mid April 2022, seven months before the midterm Congressional and Gubernatorial elections in November, but the Republican Presidential campaign has begun.

It is now clear that Donald Trump will soon be indicted, and that will put him out of the running, and his crowds at rallies are getting smaller and smaller by every estimate.

So Donald Trump will NOT repeat what Grover Cleveland did in 1892, after losing the Presidency in 1888–that is, come back, and run and win the Presidency once again.

And one must realize that even when Grover Cleveland “lost” in 1888, he won the national popular vote, although losing the Electoral College.

So Cleveland actually won the popular vote three times, with only Franklin D. Roosevelt winning four times.

And let us not forget that Donald Trump lost the popular vote by massive margins in 2016 and 2020!

Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee, but the problem is that there are younger, smarter, but even more dangerous “copycats”, who think behaving like Trump, and promoting extremist right wing policies, will be a winnable strategy.

So the fight for 2024 by Democrats and responsible anti Trump Republicans has begun!

Possibility That Neither Donald Trump Nor Joe Biden Will Be On Presidential Ballot In 2024

The possibility now exists that neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden will be on the Presidential ballot in 2024.

There are good reasons for this scenario.

Joe Biden would be 82 a few weeks after the Presidential Election of 2024, and Donald Trump would be past 78 and a half at the time of the inauguration, making both of them the oldest Presidential contenders in American history.

Donald Trump faces multiple lawsuits, and the strong potential for prosecution, both criminal and civil, which could harm any chance of him being the Republican nominee.

And there are many conservatives and Republicans who would want to be rid of the menace of Donald Trump.

Joe Biden’s age, and the hints of possible cognitive tests being bandied about by critics, makes it harder for him to consider a second term, along with all of the problems he is dealing with, which might undermine his future, particularly if the Democrats lose the House of Representatives, and even, potentially, the US Senate.

The feeling of a fresh start, and younger candidates is very appealing to many Americans.

If it turns out that neither Trump nor Biden, and even Vice Presidents Mike Pence and Kamala Harris, are passed by as alternatives, which could be a possibility, then we would have a scenario rarely seen in US history, of Presidential tickets that have neither the President nor Vice President having been nominated for either office.

The only elections since 1824 where no one nominated was ever on a Presidential ballot before being chosen are the following 12 elections out of a total of 50 elections:

1844 election of James K. Polk
1852 election of Franklin Pierce
1868 election of Ulysses S. Grant
1876 election of Rutherford B. Hayes
1880 election of James A. Garfield
1884 election of Grover Cleveland
1896 election of William McKinley
1920 election of Warren G. Harding
1928 election of Herbert Hoover
1952 election of Dwight D. Eisenhower
2008 election of Barack Obama
2016 election of Donald Trump

Presidential Losers Who Ran Again, And Donald Trump!

It has been reported that a former Trump advisor is planning to convince Donald Trump NOT to run again in 2024.

According to the report, this person has, or will tell Trump, that he would not wish to be a two time loser for the Presidency, amidst the belief that Trump’s ego could not handle that idea.

Former two time Democratic Presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson (1952, 1956) is mentioned as the example of the most recent two time nominee who lost twice for the White House.

One would think that this advisor would have more knowledge than just mentioning Stevenson, as five other Presidential candidates lost either twice or three times.

These include Republican Thomas E. Dewey (1944, 1948); Democrat William Jennings Bryan (1896, 1900, 1908); and Whig Henry Clay (1824, 1832, 1844), along with Democrat Martin Van Buren (elected in 1836 but losing in 1840, and 1848 (Free Soil Party), and Federalist Charles C. Pinckney (1804, 1808).

All six of these two or three time losers had real credentials and validity, unlike Donald Trump, who will go down as the worst or near worst President in American history!

But also, Andrew Jackson lost the Presidency in 1824, but won in 1828 and 1832, and William Henry Harrison lost in 1836 but won in 1840.

Also, there is the example of Richard Nixon, who lost in 1960, but came back successfully in 1968 and 1972.

And finally, there is Grover Cleveland, elected in 1884, but losing reelection in the Electoral College in 1888, and yet coming back to a second nonconsecutive term in the White House in 1892!

The Afghanistan Crisis Likely Insures A One Term Joe Biden Presidency

Only about one of every three Presidents historically (14 of 44) through Inauguration Day 2021 has served two terms:

George Washington
Thomas Jefferson
James Madison
James Monroe
Andrew Jackson
Ulysses S. Grant
Grover Cleveland
Woodrow Wilson
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Ronald Reagan
Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
Barack Obama

Additionally, 7 others served more than one term, but not two complete terms:

Abraham Lincoln
William McKinley
Theodore Roosevelt
Calvin Coolidge
Harry Truman
Lyndon B. Johnson
Richard Nixon

And only Lincoln, McKinley, and Nixon were actually elected to two terms, so a total of 17 Presidents elected twice, while TR, Coolidge, Truman, and Johnson succeeded after deaths of their predecessor, and were only elected once to the Presidency.

So a total of 21 Presidents served more than four years, although Lincoln and McKinley for just a few months more, and Coolidge, Johnson and Nixon only months more than a year. So only TR and Truman were very close to two complete terms. Ultimately, 16 out of 44 basically served two terms.

Now we can add Joe Biden to the list of those who will not serve two terms or even be elected a second time, as with the Afghanistan debacle, it seems certain that he will not run again in 2024!

Will Ohio Go Against The National Trend In 2020?

The state of Ohio has long been seen as a crucial state, and no Republican has been elected President without winning Ohio, including Donald Trump in 2016.

So only Gerald Ford has been a Republican President and lost Ohio, when he ran for a full term against Jimmy Carter in 1976. Once we knew that Carter had won Ohio, it was clear Ford would not have a full term, after succeeding the resigned Richard Nixon in 1974.

When one looks at party history since the Republican Party was founded in 1854, we find only five elections in which the Republican candidate lost Ohio to a Democrat, as follows:

John C. Fremont 1856 lost to James Buchanan

James G. Blaine 1884 lost to Grover Cleveland

President Benjamin Harrison 1892 lost to former President Grover Cleveland

Thomas E. Dewey 1944 lost to President Franklin D. Roosevelt

Richard Nixon 1960 lost to John F. Kennedy

So only three Democratic Presidents have won the White House without winning Ohio–James Buchanan in 1856, Grover Cleveland in 1884, and John F. Kennedy in 1960, with Cleveland second time and FDR fourth time winning a return to the White House without winning Ohio.

Right now, polls show Donald Trump winning Ohio by 5 points instead of the 8 point lead he had over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

So if polls hold up, Joe Biden will be the fourth Democrat to become President without Ohio, only the sixth time in 166 years, and the first time since 1960.

Ohio has been steadily losing electoral votes, as the balance of population has moved South and West, and will likely lose one electoral vote in 2024 and 2028, going down from 18 to 17, so will have less impact politically in the future!

Likely Republican Field For Presidential Race Of 2024 Very Large

The Presidential Election of 2020 is upon us in 100 days, but, believe it or not, there are hints already of who might run for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024, whether or not Donald Trump wins reelection.

Likely, there might be someone not talked about yet, who emerges as a serious contender, who has served, or will serve, in the US Senate or a state Governorship.

So what is being discussed here is highly speculative, but let me make it clear: The field is wide open.

So here goes, a list of 17 potential contenders:

if Donald Trump loses election, he would be eligible to run again in 2024, and try to match Grover Cleveland in being President, losing, and then contending again.

Additionally, his son, Donald Jr., seems to have Presidential ambitions, although the level of his competence and intellect is highly doubtful.

Also, Trump’s daughter, Ivanka Trump, is also rumored to be thinking of running, but only if Donald Jr, steps aside, but everyone knows that the President favors his daughter over his other children.

Once we get past the Trump family, here is a list of 14 other potential contenders in no special order:

Vice President or former Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana

Former South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida

Senator Rick Scott of Florida

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky

Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska

Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas

Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri

Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida

Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland

Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of Kansas

And we can finish with, believe it or not, Fox News Talk Show Host Tucker Carlson!

Acceptance Of Defeat In Presidential Elections A Norm, Except For Donald Trump!

The American political tradition is that the losers of elections accept defeat in Presidential elections, as well as other elections, and do not act like sore losers!

But we have a “sore loser” President who now says he does not know if he will accept defeat in November!

What does he propose to do? To encourage his supporters to promote violence and bloodshed? To refuse to leave office and barricade himself in the Oval Office?

If any move to promote violence and bloodshed develops as a result of Trump’s bad behavior, it is time to arrest him, even while still President, as a traitor! And were he to refuse to leave office on January 20, 2021, the Secret Service, the Capitol Police, and elements of the military would have to drag him out, maybe in handcuffs and chains, and maybe being ‘rough”, as he suggested to police officers one time on Long Island, New York in 2017!

There is no room for a loser who will not accept loss!

When we look at our history, Samuel Tilden was gracious in defeat in 1876 despite having won the popular vote to Rutherford B. Hayes.

The same happened when President Grover Cleveland lost reelection in 1888 to Benjamin Harrison, despite winning the popular vote.

The same happened when Richard Nixon lost to John F. Kennedy in 1960, in the midst of accusations of fraud in Illinois and Texas.

It also happened in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote over George W. Bush, but lost the electoral vote due to Florida voting for Bush by the official count of 537 votes.

And Hillary Clinton also accepted defeat in 2016, despite a massive nearly 3 million popular vote lead over Donald Trump, but in a very close count, lost the Electoral College by small margins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

What was acceptable for Samuel Tilden, Grover Cleveland, Richard Nixon, Al Gore, and Hillary Clinton MUST be good enough for Donald Trump!

Pete Buttigieg Soars To First In Iowa Caucus Poll

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has surged to first place in a new Iowa Caucus poll, the Monmouth University poll, an amazing rise for a mayor of a small sized city in a red state. He has gained 14 points since the summer, rising from 8 percent to 22 percent, three points ahead of Joe Biden.

It is time to start seeing Mayor Pete as a serious contender, rather than as a curiosity.

His major negative is that he has almost no support in the African American community, which right now is smitten with Joe Biden, a surprise when one thinks that either Kamala Harris or Cory Booker would have a strong support in that community, and yet does not do so.

Mayor Pete being gay and having a husband will alienate evangelical Christians, who, however, would never vote Democratic in any case.

One might say that having an urban executive government record of 8 years in South Bend, Indiana, is not a plus, but actually, being a mayor is often more on the front lines of what is America than being a Governor of a Southern state, such as Arkansas (Bill Clinton); or as Georgia one term of four years (Jimmy Carter); or two years as Governor (Woodrow Wilson in New Jersey); or four years as Governor (Franklin D. Roosevelt in New York); or no government experience (Donald Trump); or a much shorter one year mayoralty as Grover Cleveland in Buffalo, New York, or Calvin Coolidge in Northampton, Massachusetts, or Andrew Johnson in Greeneville, Tennessee.

American history is full of surprises, so do not write Mayor Pete off, as he might very well be the Democratic Presidential nominee and the 46th President of the United States!

New York City Mayors, Other Mayors And The Presidency

New York City has had Mayors who have sought the Presidency, but never has a NYC Mayor reached the White House.

With the announcement by present NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio of him becoming number 23 to run for the White House, this is a good time to look back at failed runs for the White House by NYC Mayors, and the history of other Mayors who have run for President.

DeWitt Clinton was the Federalist nominee for President in 1812 against President James Madison, but lost.

John Lindsay switched from the Republican to Democratic Party in 1972, but lost early in the process and withdrew his candidacy by April.

Rudy Giuliani was leading in polls in 2007 as a potential Republican nominee, but flopped badly and withdrew in January 2008.

Michael Bloomberg, a Republican, then an Independent, then a Democrat, considered announcing in 2016 and 2020, but decided not to at the present time, due to Joe Biden entering the race with similar views.

Additionally, a future President ran for Mayor of NYC in 1886 as a Republican, and ended up third, and yet went on to the White House, and that was Theodore Roosevelt.

Additionally, we have former Buffalo, New York Mayor and New York Governor Grover Cleveland who went on to the Presidency in 1884.

Other Mayors who ran for the Presidency include:

Hubert Humphrey of Minneapolis, Minnesota, who went on to the Senate and Vice Presidency, but lost the Presidential election of 1968 to Richard Nixon.

Sam Yorty of Los Angeles, who ran for the Democratic nomination unsuccessfully in 1972.

Dennis Kucinich of Cleveland, Ohio, who also served in Congress, and was a Democratic candidate unsuccessfully in 2004 and 2008.

Martin O’Malley of Baltimore, Maryland, who also served as Maryland Governor, and ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination in 2016.

Additionally, two Presidents who succeeded after the death of the incumbent President, had served as Mayors of small cities–Andrew Johnson as Greeneville, Tennessee Mayor; and Calvin Coolidge as Northampton, Massachusetts Mayor, and was successful in winning his own term as President in 1924.

And now, of course, we have four former Mayors running in the Democratic Presidential competition:

Cory Booker of Newark, New Jersey

Julian Castro of San Antonio, Texas

John Hickenlooper of Denver, Colorado

Bernie Sanders of Burlington, Vermont

We also have three sitting Mayors now running for the Democratic nomination:

Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana

Bill de Blasio of New York City

Wayne Messam of Miramar, Florida

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: A New Rising Star In The Presidential Race

A new rising star in the Democratic Presidential race is South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (pronounced Buddhajudge) who has been the mayor of this mid sized city/ college town since 2012, and has won both four year terms handily with 74 and 80 percent of the vote in his two races.

We have never had a small city mayor elected President directly, and only three Presidents have been mayors, including Andrew Johnson of Greeneville, Tennessee; Grover Cleveland of Buffalo, New York; and Calvin Coolidge of Northampton, Massachusetts, but with Johnson and Coolidge succeeding to the Presidency upon the death of Abraham Lincoln and Warren G. Harding, and none of them in office as mayor for what is now seven years for Buttigieg.

If Buttigieg were to become President, he would be the second Indianan after Benjamin Harrison to become President, but with six Indianans being Vice President (four Republicans and two Democrats)—Schuyler Colfax under Ulysses S. Grant; Charles Fairbanks under Theodore Roosevelt; Dan Quayle under George H. W. Bush; Mike Pence under Donald Trump; Thomas Hendricks under Grover Cleveland, first term; and Thomas Marshall under Woodrow Wilson. Additionally, William English ran with Democrat Winfield Scott Hancock in 1880, and John Kern ran with William Jennings Bryan in 1908.

Also, if Buttigieg were to become President, he would be the first gay President, and also have a husband, who would become First Gentleman, instead of Bill Clinton, who would have had that title if his wife, Hillary Clinton, had won the White House in 2016.

Additionally, he would be, by far, the youngest President at age 39 and one day old on Inauguration Day, 2021, making him about three years and ten and a half months younger than Theodore Roosevelt, and four years and seven and a half months younger than John F. Kennedy.

Buttigieg is impressive as a successful and popular Mayor of South Bend, who has improved the city during his mayoralty; and as a graduate of Harvard University, he went on to be a Rhodes Scholar at Pembroke College of Oxford University in Great Britain. He also served in the US Navy at the rank of Lieutenant, and was a Naval Intelligence Officer who served in the war in Afghanistan, and is still in the Naval Reserve.

Also of note is that Buttigieg won the competition for the “JFK Profiles In Courage Essay Contest” in 2000, writing about the integrity and courage of then Independent Congressman Bernie Sanders, and traveled to the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library to accept the award from Caroline Kennedy, and met other members of the Kennedy family. Buttigieg had been valedictorian of his high school class, and was a member of Phi Beta Kappa at Harvard University, and graduated Magna Cum Laude from Harvard with a degree in History and Literature.