Grover Cleveland

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Gains Minnesota Support, Now At 205 Electoral Votes!

Ronald 4 Comments

The movement to change the Presidential Election process from the Electoral College system that has allowed five Presidential elections to be won by the national popular vote loser, has made more progress in the past few days, with Minnesota becoming the 16th state plus the District of Columbia to agree to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact!

Five Presidential Elections have seen the “vote of the people” denied with the popular vote loser becoming President as follows:

1824 Andrew Jackson loses to John Quincy Adams despite 38,000 vote lead
1876 Samuel Tilden loses to Rutherford B. Hayes despite 252,000 vote lead
1888 Grover Cleveland loses to Benjamin Harrison despite 90,000 vote lead
2000 Al Gore loses to George W. Bush despite 540,000 vote lead
2016 Hillary Clinton loses to Donald Trump despite 2.86 million vote lead

The total number of electoral votes needed to win the Presidency is 270, with the 16 states and DC adding up to a total of 205 electoral votes.

The problem is in a divided America all of the states and DC that have agreed to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact are “blue” states.

In order of their adoption by the state legislatures and signing by the governors are the following states: (starting in April 2007 until May 2023)

Maryland
New Jersey
Illinois
Hawaii
Washington
Massachusetts
District of Columbia
Vermont
California
Rhode Island
New York
Connecticut
Colorado
Delaware
New Mexico
Oregon
Minnesota

Two states–Maine and Nevada–passed the compact, but in Maine, a followup required vote failed and in Nevada the Republican governor vetoed the legislation. But in the past two weeks, Nevada passed the legislation again, and it seems almost ready to add its six electoral votes to the total, making it, when it happens, 211 electoral votes.

Six other states saw one of the houses of the state legislature pass the bill–Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Michigan (15), North Carolina (16), Oklahoma (7), and Virginia (13). If these six states were to pass such a bill in the future, it would mean 68 more electoral votes, which with the present 205, would add up to 273, three more than needed, and if Nevada joined the list, it would be 279!

But even if more states were to join this compact, it is likely that there would be a constitutional challenge if, in a future Presidential election, this compact came into reality, and it could cause a major division in the nation.

Labor Day Should Remind Us Of Significance Of Labor Unions In American History!

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Monday is Labor Day, a celebration of the contributions and sacrifices of generations of workers who struggled to honor the efforts of working people, who had to combat the power of corporations and commit themselves to reform and humane treatment.

The first national holiday came about in the Presidency of Grover Cleveland in 1894, just as we had the Pullman Strike, which led to the imprisonment of Socialist Eugene Debs, but led to the growing success of organized labor over the next decades.

The ultimate triumph of organized labor came in the New Deal of Franklin D. Roosevelt, and while much of the nation, particularly the Southern states, worked against unionization, there was expansion of labor union membership nationally.

Sadly, the Presidency of Ronald Reagan saw labor union growth come to a halt, and has only recently started to increase once again.

But membership in labor unions is only in the midteens in number right now, when it once was about a third to 40 percent.

President Joe Biden, however, is a champion of organized labor, and will speak on Labor Day tomorrow in Pittsburgh, to commemorate labor, and call for the further expansion of unions for workers!

In the Presidential Election of 2020, Biden gained the backing of 56 percent of union households, crucial to his victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in particular!

The Republican Presidential Campaign Has Begun, With Trump Soon To Be Indicted, So Out Of The Running!

Ronald 1 Comment

Here we are in mid April 2022, seven months before the midterm Congressional and Gubernatorial elections in November, but the Republican Presidential campaign has begun.

It is now clear that Donald Trump will soon be indicted, and that will put him out of the running, and his crowds at rallies are getting smaller and smaller by every estimate.

So Donald Trump will NOT repeat what Grover Cleveland did in 1892, after losing the Presidency in 1888–that is, come back, and run and win the Presidency once again.

And one must realize that even when Grover Cleveland “lost” in 1888, he won the national popular vote, although losing the Electoral College.

So Cleveland actually won the popular vote three times, with only Franklin D. Roosevelt winning four times.

And let us not forget that Donald Trump lost the popular vote by massive margins in 2016 and 2020!

Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee, but the problem is that there are younger, smarter, but even more dangerous “copycats”, who think behaving like Trump, and promoting extremist right wing policies, will be a winnable strategy.

So the fight for 2024 by Democrats and responsible anti Trump Republicans has begun!

Possibility That Neither Donald Trump Nor Joe Biden Will Be On Presidential Ballot In 2024

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The possibility now exists that neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden will be on the Presidential ballot in 2024.

There are good reasons for this scenario.

Joe Biden would be 82 a few weeks after the Presidential Election of 2024, and Donald Trump would be past 78 and a half at the time of the inauguration, making both of them the oldest Presidential contenders in American history.

Donald Trump faces multiple lawsuits, and the strong potential for prosecution, both criminal and civil, which could harm any chance of him being the Republican nominee.

And there are many conservatives and Republicans who would want to be rid of the menace of Donald Trump.

Joe Biden’s age, and the hints of possible cognitive tests being bandied about by critics, makes it harder for him to consider a second term, along with all of the problems he is dealing with, which might undermine his future, particularly if the Democrats lose the House of Representatives, and even, potentially, the US Senate.

The feeling of a fresh start, and younger candidates is very appealing to many Americans.

If it turns out that neither Trump nor Biden, and even Vice Presidents Mike Pence and Kamala Harris, are passed by as alternatives, which could be a possibility, then we would have a scenario rarely seen in US history, of Presidential tickets that have neither the President nor Vice President having been nominated for either office.

The only elections since 1824 where no one nominated was ever on a Presidential ballot before being chosen are the following 12 elections out of a total of 50 elections:

1844 election of James K. Polk
1852 election of Franklin Pierce
1868 election of Ulysses S. Grant
1876 election of Rutherford B. Hayes
1880 election of James A. Garfield
1884 election of Grover Cleveland
1896 election of William McKinley
1920 election of Warren G. Harding
1928 election of Herbert Hoover
1952 election of Dwight D. Eisenhower
2008 election of Barack Obama
2016 election of Donald Trump

Presidential Losers Who Ran Again, And Donald Trump!

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It has been reported that a former Trump advisor is planning to convince Donald Trump NOT to run again in 2024.

According to the report, this person has, or will tell Trump, that he would not wish to be a two time loser for the Presidency, amidst the belief that Trump’s ego could not handle that idea.

Former two time Democratic Presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson (1952, 1956) is mentioned as the example of the most recent two time nominee who lost twice for the White House.

One would think that this advisor would have more knowledge than just mentioning Stevenson, as five other Presidential candidates lost either twice or three times.

These include Republican Thomas E. Dewey (1944, 1948); Democrat William Jennings Bryan (1896, 1900, 1908); and Whig Henry Clay (1824, 1832, 1844), along with Democrat Martin Van Buren (elected in 1836 but losing in 1840, and 1848 (Free Soil Party), and Federalist Charles C. Pinckney (1804, 1808).

All six of these two or three time losers had real credentials and validity, unlike Donald Trump, who will go down as the worst or near worst President in American history!

But also, Andrew Jackson lost the Presidency in 1824, but won in 1828 and 1832, and William Henry Harrison lost in 1836 but won in 1840.

Also, there is the example of Richard Nixon, who lost in 1960, but came back successfully in 1968 and 1972.

And finally, there is Grover Cleveland, elected in 1884, but losing reelection in the Electoral College in 1888, and yet coming back to a second nonconsecutive term in the White House in 1892!

The Afghanistan Crisis Likely Insures A One Term Joe Biden Presidency

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Only about one of every three Presidents historically (14 of 44) through Inauguration Day 2021 has served two terms:

George Washington
Thomas Jefferson
James Madison
James Monroe
Andrew Jackson
Ulysses S. Grant
Grover Cleveland
Woodrow Wilson
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Ronald Reagan
Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
Barack Obama

Additionally, 7 others served more than one term, but not two complete terms:

Abraham Lincoln
William McKinley
Theodore Roosevelt
Calvin Coolidge
Harry Truman
Lyndon B. Johnson
Richard Nixon

And only Lincoln, McKinley, and Nixon were actually elected to two terms, so a total of 17 Presidents elected twice, while TR, Coolidge, Truman, and Johnson succeeded after deaths of their predecessor, and were only elected once to the Presidency.

So a total of 21 Presidents served more than four years, although Lincoln and McKinley for just a few months more, and Coolidge, Johnson and Nixon only months more than a year. So only TR and Truman were very close to two complete terms. Ultimately, 16 out of 44 basically served two terms.

Now we can add Joe Biden to the list of those who will not serve two terms or even be elected a second time, as with the Afghanistan debacle, it seems certain that he will not run again in 2024!

Will Ohio Go Against The National Trend In 2020?

Ronald 8 Comments

The state of Ohio has long been seen as a crucial state, and no Republican has been elected President without winning Ohio, including Donald Trump in 2016.

So only Gerald Ford has been a Republican President and lost Ohio, when he ran for a full term against Jimmy Carter in 1976. Once we knew that Carter had won Ohio, it was clear Ford would not have a full term, after succeeding the resigned Richard Nixon in 1974.

When one looks at party history since the Republican Party was founded in 1854, we find only five elections in which the Republican candidate lost Ohio to a Democrat, as follows:

John C. Fremont 1856 lost to James Buchanan

James G. Blaine 1884 lost to Grover Cleveland

President Benjamin Harrison 1892 lost to former President Grover Cleveland

Thomas E. Dewey 1944 lost to President Franklin D. Roosevelt

Richard Nixon 1960 lost to John F. Kennedy

So only three Democratic Presidents have won the White House without winning Ohio–James Buchanan in 1856, Grover Cleveland in 1884, and John F. Kennedy in 1960, with Cleveland second time and FDR fourth time winning a return to the White House without winning Ohio.

Right now, polls show Donald Trump winning Ohio by 5 points instead of the 8 point lead he had over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

So if polls hold up, Joe Biden will be the fourth Democrat to become President without Ohio, only the sixth time in 166 years, and the first time since 1960.

Ohio has been steadily losing electoral votes, as the balance of population has moved South and West, and will likely lose one electoral vote in 2024 and 2028, going down from 18 to 17, so will have less impact politically in the future!

Likely Republican Field For Presidential Race Of 2024 Very Large

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The Presidential Election of 2020 is upon us in 100 days, but, believe it or not, there are hints already of who might run for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024, whether or not Donald Trump wins reelection.

Likely, there might be someone not talked about yet, who emerges as a serious contender, who has served, or will serve, in the US Senate or a state Governorship.

So what is being discussed here is highly speculative, but let me make it clear: The field is wide open.

So here goes, a list of 17 potential contenders:

if Donald Trump loses election, he would be eligible to run again in 2024, and try to match Grover Cleveland in being President, losing, and then contending again.

Additionally, his son, Donald Jr., seems to have Presidential ambitions, although the level of his competence and intellect is highly doubtful.

Also, Trump’s daughter, Ivanka Trump, is also rumored to be thinking of running, but only if Donald Jr, steps aside, but everyone knows that the President favors his daughter over his other children.

Once we get past the Trump family, here is a list of 14 other potential contenders in no special order:

Vice President or former Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana

Former South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida

Senator Rick Scott of Florida

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky

Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska

Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas

Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri

Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida

Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland

Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of Kansas

And we can finish with, believe it or not, Fox News Talk Show Host Tucker Carlson!

Acceptance Of Defeat In Presidential Elections A Norm, Except For Donald Trump!

Ronald 8 Comments

The American political tradition is that the losers of elections accept defeat in Presidential elections, as well as other elections, and do not act like sore losers!

But we have a “sore loser” President who now says he does not know if he will accept defeat in November!

What does he propose to do? To encourage his supporters to promote violence and bloodshed? To refuse to leave office and barricade himself in the Oval Office?

If any move to promote violence and bloodshed develops as a result of Trump’s bad behavior, it is time to arrest him, even while still President, as a traitor! And were he to refuse to leave office on January 20, 2021, the Secret Service, the Capitol Police, and elements of the military would have to drag him out, maybe in handcuffs and chains, and maybe being ‘rough”, as he suggested to police officers one time on Long Island, New York in 2017!

There is no room for a loser who will not accept loss!

When we look at our history, Samuel Tilden was gracious in defeat in 1876 despite having won the popular vote to Rutherford B. Hayes.

The same happened when President Grover Cleveland lost reelection in 1888 to Benjamin Harrison, despite winning the popular vote.

The same happened when Richard Nixon lost to John F. Kennedy in 1960, in the midst of accusations of fraud in Illinois and Texas.

It also happened in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote over George W. Bush, but lost the electoral vote due to Florida voting for Bush by the official count of 537 votes.

And Hillary Clinton also accepted defeat in 2016, despite a massive nearly 3 million popular vote lead over Donald Trump, but in a very close count, lost the Electoral College by small margins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

What was acceptable for Samuel Tilden, Grover Cleveland, Richard Nixon, Al Gore, and Hillary Clinton MUST be good enough for Donald Trump!

Pete Buttigieg Soars To First In Iowa Caucus Poll

Ronald 5 Comments

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has surged to first place in a new Iowa Caucus poll, the Monmouth University poll, an amazing rise for a mayor of a small sized city in a red state. He has gained 14 points since the summer, rising from 8 percent to 22 percent, three points ahead of Joe Biden.

It is time to start seeing Mayor Pete as a serious contender, rather than as a curiosity.

His major negative is that he has almost no support in the African American community, which right now is smitten with Joe Biden, a surprise when one thinks that either Kamala Harris or Cory Booker would have a strong support in that community, and yet does not do so.

Mayor Pete being gay and having a husband will alienate evangelical Christians, who, however, would never vote Democratic in any case.

One might say that having an urban executive government record of 8 years in South Bend, Indiana, is not a plus, but actually, being a mayor is often more on the front lines of what is America than being a Governor of a Southern state, such as Arkansas (Bill Clinton); or as Georgia one term of four years (Jimmy Carter); or two years as Governor (Woodrow Wilson in New Jersey); or four years as Governor (Franklin D. Roosevelt in New York); or no government experience (Donald Trump); or a much shorter one year mayoralty as Grover Cleveland in Buffalo, New York, or Calvin Coolidge in Northampton, Massachusetts, or Andrew Johnson in Greeneville, Tennessee.

American history is full of surprises, so do not write Mayor Pete off, as he might very well be the Democratic Presidential nominee and the 46th President of the United States!