Arizona

The Rapidly Growing Population Of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Texas Bode Well For Democrats By The 2020 Presidential Election!

Four states are rapidly growing in population, according to the Census Bureau, and all four, while “Red” states in the 2012 Presidential election, have the potential to turn “Blue” either in 2016 or certainly by 2020.

North Carolina seems most likely to go for Hillary Clinton, followed by Georgia and possibly Arizona. Longer term, there is Texas.

With North Carolina having 15, Georgia having 16, Arizona having 11, and Texas having 38 electoral votes now, it is certain that all four will have MORE electoral votes starting in 2024.

And Florida, a “swing” state with constantly growing population, particularly of increased Puerto Rican migration, has 29 electoral votes through the 2020 Presidential election, and assuredly will have more in 2024.

So it is highly likely that the Democratic Party will have, for sure, over 400 electoral votes by 2020, and if not, by 2024, an Electoral College landslide for the long term!

Add the present 80 electoral votes of the four presently “Red” states to the 332 that Barack Obama had in 2012, and you get 412 electoral votes, and again, more by 2024 after the reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives and in the Electoral College after the Census of 2020!

Add the Midwestern states of Indiana (11) and Missouri (10) and you get 433 electoral votes to 105 for the Republicans, but again with probably more total electoral votes by gaining of population in the four Sunbelt states, even with the chance that Indiana and Missouri will not gain, and might lose a seat each.

So expect the chance that the total number of electoral votes could, and with the addition of Florida and California gaining seats as well, be in the high 430s!

The Mormon Factor In The Electoral College Prognostications

The Mormon Church (Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints) is an important factor in the American West.

Usually, Mormons as a group are conservative Republicans, but the odds are growing that states that would usually vote Republican might not vote for Donald Trump, due to his religious bigotry displayed toward Muslims, as Mormons suffered persecution in the 19th century on their trek to Salt Lake City, Utah, and Mitt Romney, himself a Mormon, is vehemently against Trump.

60 percent in Utah, 24 percent in Idaho, and 9 percent in Wyoming are Mormons,with 4-5 percent in Nevada, Arizona, and Montana. Only about 2 percent in America are Mormon, similar to Jews in population and percentage.

The most Mormon states are Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming, with a total of 13 electoral votes. Nevada, Arizona, and Montana follow, with a total of 20 electoral votes. All of these six states, except Nevada, have been reliably Republican.

So we are talking about a possible loss of 27 electoral votes, not counting Nevada’s six electoral votes.

Donald Trump cannot afford to lose these states, but he could, indeed, some or all of them going to Democrat Hillary Clinton over the religious issue!

Public Opinion Polls Show A Widening Lead For Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump, Even In “Swing” States!

Here we are at the end of June 2016, and the public opinion polls show a widening lead for Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump, even in “Swing” states.

Donald Trump is self destructing, and this less than three weeks before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and Republicans running away from Trump in droves, wishing for an alternative, but realistically, not able to gain one, other than maybe voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, former Republican Governor of New Mexico and his running mate, William Weld, former Republican Governor of Massachusetts.

If this trend continues, the reality of a massive landslide seems inevitable, and it would have the effect of a 1964 landslide of Lyndon B. Johnson over Barry Goldwater.

North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia and Arizona, and even possibly Utah, seem possible to go for Hillary Clinton, an unheard of thought just a few months ago, and with Hillary Clinton winning every state that Barack Obama won in 2012.

That would mean an Electoral College total of 401 electoral votes, with 69 being added to the 332 that Obama gained in 2012, and it would mean 32 states and DC out of the 50 states.

Republicans Unifying Around Donald Trump Are Self Destructing As A Result! Destroying Their Careers And Reputations In The Process!

Donald Trump is a total disaster for the Republican Party, and many office holders are backing away as rapidly as possible, but it may not be enough to save them and their careers and reputations in the process.

Many are still unifying around Trump, and will suffer ever more, including Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey and Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama as two examples, because they both have the ambition to be Vice President.

Many others clearly have no desire to run with Trump, and to serve under him would be a nightmare.

The only way to hold on to one’s career in the Republican Party is to repudiate Trump, and condemn his racism, nativism, xenophobia, and misogyny. Republicans in “Blue” states are showing signs of doing so, as for instance, Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker.

Many Republican Senators running for reelection are seeing their likelihood of reelection going down the drain, and are in crisis mode.

Of course, Republicans in solidly “Red” states, particularly in the South, probably do not need to worry as much, although there is no certainty that the “Red” states will all remain “Red”, as there are signs that North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, and even Utah might abandon the Republican Presidential candidate.

The Mexico Wall Will Never Be Reality!

Donald Trump can claim there will be a Mexico Wall when he is President, but that will never happen!

Illegal immigration across the border from Mexico to the United States is at its lowest in many years.

Landowners along the border will not, willingly, give up some of their property to build the wall.

There could be environmental and water supply issues that would become major issues, and cause bloodshed and violence among people in the Southwest, and would violate federal and state laws.

The cost of such a project would be astronomical, and there would be tremendous cost overruns

The wall’s cost would not be paid by Mexico, but instead by Americans, and would undermine US-Mexican relations with a neighbor that shares a massive boundary with the United States from Texas to New Mexico to Arizona to California.

The Republican Party would be badly split over support of such a wall, and it would be prevented by legislative blockages in both houses of Congress, including all Democrats.

The drug cartels would overcome any wall, as they are ingenious at getting their product across the border, including digging tunnels under any barriers that might be created.

We do not need to have bad relations with a neighbor to add to the many foreign policy issues that already exist!

So forget it, the Mexico Wall will never be a reality, and the ultimate reason is that Donald Trump will NOT become the 45th President of the United States!

Are We A Police State? Ted Cruz Suggests Monitoring “Muslim” Neighborhoods! Next, Why Not Monitor Other Minority Groups, Heh, Ted?

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, the only Republican challenger to Donald Trump who could possibly pass Trump in delegates, is trying to outTrump Trump!

His suggestion, after the Belgium terrorist attack yesterday, is that police in America start to monitor and patrol  “Muslim” neighborhoods!

First of all, how does one define a “Muslim” neighborhood?  By name, by appearance, by requiring people to reveal their religious beliefs?

Are we to start allowing police to monitor an Hispanic or Latino neighborhood?  Oh wait, that already happens illegally in Maricopa County, Arizona, where anyone can be checked on their immigration status by the police under Sheriff Joe Arpaio, although it is illegal, and causes stress among Spanish speaking people.

Are we to start allowing police to monitor African American neighborhoods?  Oh wait, that already happens , and is the major cause of so many police shootings and killings.

This insistence on a “police state” mentality can do tremendous harm, in that it can convince ethnic, racial, and religious groups to be disillusioned, and feel a need and desire to strike out against an American society that treats white Christian Anglo Americans as a privileged class, that is treated better than everyone else!

Oh wait, that is already the case in this nation, white privilege, and hasn’t it cost enough trouble already without making it worse, as Senator Ted Cruz, crazily, is promoting?

Trump Effect: Likelihood Of Major Democratic Wave In 2016!

The effect of Donald Trump’s Presidential candidacy is the likelihood of a major Democratic wave in the upcoming Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2016.

Polls indicate that the Electoral College could be a landslide for the Democrats, with the chance to gain such states as North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, major areas of Hispanic and Latino growth, and indications of many registering to vote because of Trump’s anti Hispanic and anti Latino rhetoric, including against the nation of Mexico, which shares a 2,000 mile boundary with the United States.

The Senate has 34 seats facing election, with 24 of those seats being Republican, and at least ten seats of Republicans in danger of being lost, which would create a large margin of Democrats in the upper chamber.

The House of Representatives is a tough nut to crack, due to gerrymandering and the largest Republican majority in the lower chamber since 1928.  At the least, the large GOP majority will dwindle, with an outside chance of a slim Democratic majority, which probably would be lost in the midterm elections of 2018.

But even a two year “window” would allow a Democratic President with both houses of Congress in his favor to accomplish major changes!

And, of course, the transformation of the Supreme Court would occur, which would have a long range effect.

This is what Donald Trump has done to the moribund Republican Party, and it looks more likely by the day!

Asian Americans: The Ultimate Swing Vote In Florida, Virginia, Nevada In the Presidential Election Of 2016, And Influence Nationally!

One group that has not gained much attention in the fury of the Presidential Election campaign of 2016 are Asian Americans, the fastest growing group in America.

With a little more than 5 percent of the population, and rapidly growing in Florida, Virginia, and Nevada, and already substantial in New York, California, Illinois, Maryland, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado and other states, Asian Americans are very likely to play a pivotal role in who wins the Presidency.

Asian Americans could also affect Senate and House races, as they are very likely to vote, and the vast majority have tended to vote Democratic in recent years.  The growing numbers of Asian Americans in Central and South Florida, Northern Virginia, and the Las Vegas metropolitan area are likely to insure that those three key swing states should influence the Democratic candidate’s likelihood of winning the Presidency.

Many do not realize how  many different Asian groups are included–including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Filipino, as well as those from India, Pakistan and other nations in Asia.  Very accomplished and very dedicated to their civic duty to participate in the electoral battle is a great way to describe Asian Americans.

And the history of Asian Americans is always in the background–particularly the banning of Chinese immigration from 1882-1943, and the mistreatment of Japanese Americans in California early in the 20th century, and the forced internment of 110,000 Japanese Americans in World War II.

Asian Americans know that they must fight against nativism, racism, and religious discrimination, including those of Muslim faith.

So the Republican Party has a major problem in drawing Asian American support, with 73 percent voting for Barack Obama in 2012!

A Dozen Republican Governors Are The Most Horrendous In Memory!

It is amazing how so many people seem to believe that the federal government cannot be trusted, and that the true level of competence is state government–legislatures and governors, when the evidence is that, despite the many problems of the federal government, the state governments in many states is absolutely horrendous.

Both parties have their issues in state governments, but it is Republican governors which are particularly wretched as witness the following governors who have set records for the most incompetent and inhumane leadership:

Michigan–Rick Snyder, who has created a major health crisis in Flint, where the water system is totally lead polluted, and is responsible for the poisoning of many infants and young children, who will suffer effects for the rest of their lives.  For this, Snyder should be removed from office, and should be indicted and convicted and sentenced to life in prison, as effectively, he has destroyed thousands of young lives, through his decision to save money by forcing Flint to use polluted water systems.

Maine–Paul LePage, who has been totally off the wall in his rhetoric, and has displayed racism and other indications of insensitivity on a regular basis for the past five years, and faces a likely move toward impeachment and removal from office.

Kansas–Sam Brownback, who has totally bankrupted his state, and has cut education and health care coverage to dangerous levels  that undermine the state, all to cut taxes for the wealthy, and is a great example of a fake religiously devout leader.

Texas–Greg Abbott, who wants to take Texas back to the Civil War, calling for a constitutional amendment to forbid the federal government from having any influence or power over the states, arguing states rights will better protect the nation.

Florida—Rick Scott, who has refused to accept climate change as having an effect, even though his state is already seeing great evidence of the damage that the Sunshine state faces in the next 20-40 years, and also has done everything possible to undermine the lives of the poor in the state.

Wisconsin–Scott Walker, who has engaged in policies to undermine public workers and to destroy the reputation of the state as one of the most advanced states in the nation, and has also engaged in widespread political corruption on a massive scale.

North Carolina–Pat McCrory, who has managed to turn a progressive Southern state into one of the most backward, regressive states in America, one influenced by the corruption and move for dominance by the Koch Brothers in so many areas  of public policy.

Oklahoma–Mary Fallin, one of the most heartless and nasty state leaders, ignoring the growing number of earthquakes caused by the fracking industry, and totally committed to capital punishment even if there are no appropriate drugs to use for execution.

Louisiana–Bobby Jindal, who lost his Presidential ambitions, but set a record as a totally destructive and  heartless governor toward the poor of his state, and destroyed the public education system of New Orleans entirely.

Indiana–Mike Pence, who has caused a major health crisis over AIDS, by his refusal to address the issue of drug abuse, and has shown unwillingness to deal with the needs of those at the bottom of the economic system.

Arizona—Doug Ducey, who has shown total lack of competence or concern for the large number of Latinos in his state, and has shown evidence of corruption on a level that makes one wish former governor Jan Brewer was still in office, as bad as she actually was.

Kentucky—Matt Bevin, with no government experience, and a Tea Party activist, wishing to destroy the ObamaCare Medicaid system of his state, which was a model for the nation, but now is on the chopping block.

 

The Presidency And “Natural Born” Citizenship—Barry Goldwater, John McCain, Barack Obama, YES! George Romney And Ted Cruz, NO!

The question of “natural born” citizenship has arisen in recent years, with the cases of John McCain, Barack Obama, and now Ted Cruz running for President.

It also showed up when Barry Goldwater was running for President in 1964, and George Romney was planning a Presidential campaign in 1968.

It seems clear that the answer as to who of these individuals were or are eligible to run for President is as follows:

Barry Goldwater WAS eligible to run for President in 1964, as he was born in Arizona, which was a territory at the time of his birth in 1909, becoming a state in 1912!

George Romney never actually declared for President in 1968, but arguably, he was NOT eligible to be President, as he was born to Mormon parents in Mexico!

John McCain, when he ran for President in 2000 and again in 2008, WAS eligible to run for President, as he was born in the Panama Canal Zone, which was a US territory from the time of the Panama Canal treaty in 1903. until its turnover to Panama at the end of 1999. And the Canal Zone had a US Military base, which made it US territory!

Barack Obama, when he ran for President in 2008 and 2012, WAS eligible to run for President, as  he was born in the state of Hawaii, which had become a state in 1959, two years before Obama was born, but even if still a territory, Obama was perfectly eligible for the Presidency!

Finally, Senator Ted Cruz’s campaign for President is in dispute, as Cruz was born in Canada and lived there for four years, so despite his statements, he is technically NOT eligible to be President of the United States!

The answer is that IF you wish your son or daughter to run for President fifty or more years from now, make sure that your baby is born on a military base or diplomatic mission of the United States overseas, NOT on foreign soil not related to the United States!

It is ironic that all of the contested cases of natural born citizenship have been Republicans, with the exception of Obama, amazing when one thinks how the Republican Party in modern times is uptight about citizenship and immigration!