New Hampshire

Medicare Will Decide The Election: IF Obama Wins Florida AND New Hampshire Of “Battleground” States, He Wins The Presidency!

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Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet The Press just demonstrated how close Barack Obama is to a victory for the White House.

Showing an electoral vote map with 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp and 191 in Mitt Romney’s camp, Todd demonstrates that there are NINE true “battleground” or “swing” states, and if Obama wins Florida and New Hampshire, he has the second term he wants in the White House! And the issue of Medicare, brought to central focus by Paul Ryan and his budget plans on that program, will be the center of the victory of Obama for the Presidency!

Even if Romney wins the other seven contestable states—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada—he would lose the Electoral College 270-268, due to Florida’s 29 electoral votes and New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes!

But, to assume that Obama would really lose all seven of those states is also delusional, as it is certain that he will win some, and probably, most of them!

This author has been saying this for a long time, and has found some readers of this blog, conservative and Republican friends and associates, and people on Fox News Channel and talk radio, act as if only the public opinion polls, which often show a close race in many states and nationally, should be paid attention to, but that is NOT the case!

The election is decided by the Electoral College, NOT the popular vote nationally,and do not forget that George W. Bush LOST the popular vote in 2000, but was declared the winner of the Electoral College! The same happened to Benjamin Harrison, Rutherford Hayes, and John Quincy Adams in the past!

But to conclude that, somehow, Barack Obama will lose the national popular vote, with the Republican alienation of Hispanics-Latinos, African Americans, women, young voters, the middle class, senior citizens, gays and lesbians, the poor, labor, educators, consumer advocates, environmentalists, and secular voters—in each case, the majority, not all of any group, of course—indicates that those believing what they do are indeed delusional, and cannot be helped by ordinary medical intervention!

Latest Poll Averages Show Obama Ahead Of Romney In Eleven Of Twelve Battleground States!

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Barack Obama may be only slightly ahead of Mitt Romney nationally in the average of various polls–47.3 percent to 44.7 percent, but when one looks at twelve battleground or swing states, he is ahead of Romney in all but North Carolina, where he trails Romney by 48.5 to 46.5, two percentage points.

Obama is ahead by almost 6 points in Ohio; by 2.5 points in Virginia; by 3 points in Florida; by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania; by almost 4 points in Iowa; by 5.5 points in Nevada; by 5 points in Wisconsin; by 7 points in New Mexico; by 6.5 points in Michigan; and by almost 3 points in New Hampshire. In Colorado, the margin is only two tenths of one point for Obama over Romney, nearly an even split.

So Obama is ahead in 10 of the 12 states listed, all of which he won in 2008, nearly even in Colorado, and only behind in North Carolina!

Not bad considering the blistering attacks and lies and deception that have been going on for three and a half years as President, greater than any President since the last one who was called every name in the book, and yet won a landslide victory in 1936 in the midst of the Great Depression, with unemployment levels still much higher than they are in 2012.

The author is referring here to Franklin D. Roosevelt!

Republicans, Women And Hispanics: Antagonism Self Induced And Irretrievable!

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The Republican Party has been suicidal in this Presidential campaign, and likely nominee Mitt Romney, as well as Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, have all effectively killed off the chances of the party wooing large percentages of two key voting groups–women and Hispanics.

Joe Scarborough, former Florida Congressman and host of Morning Joe on MSNBC has warned the party of the self induced damage they are doing, but the party leadership and candidates have been tone deaf to it.

And now a new series of polls show Mitt Romney way down in percentage with both women and Hispanics, and with seven months to go, no one, realistically, can see how the former Massachusetts Governor is going to turn the tide in his favor.

Trying to appeal to the right wing has harmed Romney in the nation, while not convincing the right wing to like him.

In the South and Midwest, in more rural and evangelical Christian areas, Romney has been unable to win, or promote loyalty for his candidacy. It is still doubtful that large numbers of these voters will come out for Romney in the Fall campaign.

So the story goes that he must pick a very conservative running mate for the Vice Presidency to appeal to these right wingers, but if so, it will only guarantee that Romney will lose the middle, the center of the population–including women, Hispanics, and also the all important Independents.

Without women, Hispanics, and Independents, how is Romney going to win the all important “swing states” in the South, the Midwest, and the Mountain States, as well as New Hampshire?

The answer is that the election is effectively over, as Romney cannot appeal to the “swing states” adequately, and cannot count on strong right wing support either.

What it comes down to is that Romney, by being a person who one cannot trust as to his views and beliefs, has effectively alienated the middle, while not being trusted even now by the right wing of his party.

And if, by some miracle, Romney won, he would see his dark hair turn grey quickly, as he would have no natural constituency to support him!

The Democrats would fight to weaken him, and the Republicans would feel no loyalty, and would work to move him to the extreme right, making it impossible to get anything done!

If one thinks Barack Obama has had troubles getting things done, imagine a President Romney trying to get things done, whether with Democratic or Republican control of the Congress!

The Advancement Of Gay Marriage Rights In California And Washington State

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Events of this week are very promising regarding the expansion of gay marriage rights.

California’s Ninth Circuit Court has declared Proposition 8, which banned gay marriage in 2008 as unconstitutional, upholding a district court ruling, and this makes it likely that gay marriage will be on the Supreme Court docket very soon, possibly even this year, already full of turning point cases on the Obama Health Care plan, voting rights, and illegal immigration restrictions in Arizona and Alabama.

Additionally, the state of Washington is about to become the seventh state to allow gay marriage, after passage by the state legislature and a soon to be signing by the governor of the state.

So Washington joins Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, and Iowa as states that allow gay marriage, along with Washington DC, and hopefully, it will return to California where it was legal for a period of time before being overturned.

Twenty to thirty years from now, when gay marriage is a normal thing, many will wonder what was the fuss back in the early part of the century, much like when one looks back to before 1967, one wonders why the big deal over racial intermarriage, which was not legal until a Supreme Court decision in 1967.

Marriage cannot be forced on any religious group, but there is no legal reason why gay marriage cannot be done outside of religious institutions that reject change. It is a question of basic human rights, and equal treatment under the Constitution!

Florida: A Complex State Politically, And Hard To Predict Its Impact

Ronald 1 Comment

With the Florida Republican Primary just eight days away, and with many Republican voters having already engaged in early voting or absentee mail ballots, the question arises as to what one can expect to happen on January 31.

Mitt Romney has the most money and is seen as the moderate in the race, although he professes to be conservative.

Newt Gingrich, flush off his victory in South Carolina, would seem to have an edge, although Florida is not quite the same as South Carolina electorally, being much more unpredictable.

Florida is really multiple states in electoral behavior, as the Panhandle, particularly west of Tallahassee, the state capital, is very much like South Carolina or “southern Alabama”, strongly evangelical Christian and Tea Party oriented. But central Florida, including Tampa and Orlando, tends to be made up of people from the Midwest, while South Florida has large concentrations of Cubans, but also Northeasterners, including Jews in large numbers. And Puerto Ricans are found in Orlando in large numbers, and liberal strongholds exist in Tallahassee due to Florida State University’s presence, and in Gainesville, home of the University of Florida.

So if Florida comes across in the GOP Primary as too conservative, that can affect the balance among Hispanics, African Americans, and Jews, heavily concentrated in South Florida and portions of Central Florida, when it comes to the Presidential election in November.

Florida has a “split personality”, and being a megastate, more representative of the nation than Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, it could turn out to be very unpredictable in its impact on the Republican Presidential battle, and in the fall campaign against Barack Obama.

Newt Gingrich’s Hubris Has No Limits!

Ronald 1 Comment

Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, has called upon fellow Presidential contenders Rick Santorum and Rick Perry to withdraw from the race and back him as the alternative to Mitt Romney. What hubris he has beyond belief!

The fact that Rick Santorum may have won Iowa, if not ending up eight votes behind Romney, does not seem to impress Gingrich.

The fact that Rick Santorum came in fourth, ahead of Gingrich, who ended up fifth, in New Hampshire, does not seem to impress Gingrich.

The fact that more than two thirds of evangelical Christian leaders meeting in Texas over the past weekend decided to throw their support to Santorum, does not seem to have impressed Gingrich.

Gingrich sees himself as brilliant, intelligent, far above all other candidates in capabilities, even though a vast majority of former House associates and Republican political leaders nationally have attacked his candidacy on many grounds.

Instead, it is Todd Palin, and now his wife Sarah, either endorsing or speaking up for Gingrich, with Sarah avoiding going as far as her husband.

Is not that involvement by the Palins enough of an answer about the legitimacy of Newt Gingrich? The Palins, particularly Sarah, have loads of hubris like Gingrich, but not even with his intelligence and brilliance! They are the mark of the STUPID group within the GOP, which includes former candidates Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain!

Newt Gingrich has stated that if he does not win South Carolina this coming weekend, that the race is over. Let’s hope that such is the case, and that we will stop having to listen to the braggadocio of this pompous, overbearing, obnoxious, egotistical person who has passed his prime long ago!

The Multi Headed Monster: The Republican Party “Bloodshed” Ahead!

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Now that the Iowa Caucuses are over, any semblance of peace and compromise in the battle for the Republican Presidential nomination is a distant dream.

With Rick Santorum ending up ONLY EIGHT votes behind Mitt Romney; Romney gaining SIX FEWER votes than in 2008; Newt Gingrich furious at his so called mistreatment by Romney related PACs bad mouthing him and his record; Rick Perry strangely deciding to reverse himself and fight on in South Carolina; Jon Huntsman ridiculing Iowa and continuing his quest to turn things in his favor in New Hampshire; and Ron Paul continuing his quixotic quest to turn America and the Republican Party against “big” government and “interventionist” foreign policy, we are far from any resolution of the struggle, and lots of “bloodshed” is ahead of us!

The “Establishment” Republicans and Wall Street Republicans want Mitt Romney.

The “Social Conservatives” can choose between Rick Santorum, likely to gain their mantle due to his success, but also Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich competing for their support.

The “Tea Party Movement” Republicans still believe in Ron Paul.

The more moderate and foreign policy oriented Republicans realize that Jon Huntsman is superior to all others in foreign affairs knowledge, but many want a more aggressive attitude on foreign policy, a la the “neoconservatives”, preferring the hard line of Santorum, Perry or Gingrich.

The Republican Party is a multi headed monster which is looking for its “soul”, but it may NOT have one!

Obama Strategies To Win Reelection In 2012: Alternative Routes To Victory

Ronald 1 Comment

Barack Obama seems extremely likely to win the entire Northeast from Maine to Maryland and Washington, DC in 2012, with possibly New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as exceptions. So that would be 112 electoral votes, or without Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, 88 electoral votes.

He is expected also to win the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon and Washington as well, which would mean 74 electoral votes.

In the Midwest, Illinois is a certainty, and the upper Midwest seems strongly Democratic too, including Michigan, WIsconsin, and Minnesota, which means these four states are together a total of 56 electoral votes.

So far, that adds up to 218 electoral votes, without New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and with them, it is 242, 28 short of the number needed, 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency.

So what is needed to guarantee an Obama victory?

1, The state of Florida with 29 electoral votes would put Obama over the top with all of the above states, and add Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, all with growing Hispanic and Latino populations, and supportive of Obama the last time, and you get 26 electoral votes, to replace a possible loss of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

2. Another scenario is to win Ohio and Missouri, the two states most representative of the winning Presidential candidates, with Ohio being with the GOP nominee every time he has won in US History, and Missouri wrong only twice on the Presidential winner since 1900–1956 and 2008–with their combined 28 replacing Florida or Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

3. Another strategy is to try to win in Georgia and Arizona, along with Missouri, three states won by John McCain in 2008, but all susceptible to moving to Obama with growing Hispanic and Latino populations. This way one gains 37 electoral votes, replacing either Florida OR Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

4. Also, if Obama wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins 28 electoral votes and does not need Florida, OR Ohio and Missouri, OR Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado!

The point is that Obama has many scenarios to win, and it is very hard to imagine that all of the above combinations of states will go to a Republican party as right wing and divided as it now is, demonstrated even more by the debacle over the middle class tax cut continuation, leading to a split between Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

So Obama supporters need to work hard, but the future looks bright!

As Iowa Caucuses Near, Growing Problems For Front Runners Paul, Gingrich, Romney

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As the Iowa Caucuses near, just eight days from now, there are growing problems for the front runners in the polls.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul is having problems explaining away the hateful, prejudiced, racist, anti Semitic, anti gay rants on his newsletters in the 1980s and 1990s, claiming he is not responsible for what was published under his name.

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is having his account of his first divorce challenged, as court records show that he pursued the divorce, rather than his first wife. Also, it has been noted that Gingrich, even in the 1970s and early 1980s, expressed interest in running for President one day, and stated the view that his first wife, considerably older than himself, would be a burden to run with, because of the age difference and his view that she was not attractive enough to be First Lady!

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the acknowledged wealthiest person running for President, has refused to release any financial records, which only a small number of presidential possibilities have failed to do in the past. This is an issue that will not go away, particularly because of the knowledge that when he worked at Bain Capital, his goal was to cut work forces at companies controlled by that corporation, rather than to increase job opportunity, something he claims he would be good at, as compared to Barack Obama.

So more than ever, the Iowa Caucuses seem more muddled, and probably insignificant, since the number of participants are so small, and so one sided in their views, that they are not representative of the nation, or really, even New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada, the other “early states”!

The Newt Gingrich-Jon Huntsman “Lincoln-Douglas” Debate In New Hampshire: A Big Yawn!

Ronald Leave a comment

Yesterday, Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman had a Lincoln-Douglas style debate at St. Anselm College In New Hampshire.

It was supposed to be a major moment for Jon Huntsman, and instead, it turned out to be a major yawn!

The two men, both admittedly bright and intelligent, were very respectful and generous in compliments toward the other.

Both demonstrated a knowledge of foreign affairs greater than any of the other GOP Presidential candidates in the nomination race.

But no major breakthroughs were accomplished by Huntsman, a major disappointment, as this event was billed by his camp as a major turning point in the campaign, which it most certainly was not!

There is no question of Huntsman’s outstanding attributes, but it seems clear that he should look to 2016, having gained exposure this time, but not making so far any major headway.

The odds of Huntsman winning New Hampshire, and becoming a major challenge to Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich now seems remote!