Montana

Another Nail In The Coffin Of Donald Trump: The Dallas Morning News Editorial Endorsing Hillary Clinton

Ronald 7 Comments

The Dallas Morning News is a conservative newspaper, which has endorsed Republican Presidential nominees since World War II, but this time they are endorsing Hillary Clinton, and have made it clear that they consider Donald Trump totally unqualified for the Oval Office.

This lack of an endorsement comes as some polls show Texas in play, along with Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Montana, and Utah, all possibly going “Blue” for this election, a development that no one really believes possible, but it seems it could happen.

Donald Trump has made many Republicans and conservatives alienated, with the closest alienation earlier being Senator Barry Goldwater in 1964, which led to a massive defeat, including states that one would have expected to vote Republican.

It is clear that Donald Trump has sealed his fate by his words and actions, along with his corruption and past scandals and failures.

He is ill prepared to be Commander in Chief, has poor judgment and temperament, and his loose mouth is a danger to diplomacy and international order.

The Mountain And Desert West America Going “Blue” For the Future, Following The Pacific Coast States!

Ronald 3 Comments

There are growing indications that much of the Mountain and Desert West part of America is going “Blue” for the future, following the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii.

Already, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada are leaning in that direction, and it seems inevitable that Arizona will join that group of states soon, and also Montana may join in that move.

The states of Wyoming, Idaho and Utah are less likely to do so, but growing Hispanic-Latino and Asian American population in much of the Mountain and Desert West makes Democratic gains in both Presidential elections and state elections much more likely over the next decade.

In the controversy over Hispanic-Latino population growth, many might be surprised to learn that Asian American population is growing at a faster clip in the West, and just as Hispanics and Latinos tend to do, Asian Americans–whether Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Filipino, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi–as well as others, tends to vote Democratic.

The nativism appeal of Donald Trump and the general Republican party line is a warning sign to these Asian American groups, and history reminds us of the discrimination visited in the Western states against particularly Chinese and Japanese immigrants and citizens in the American past.

The Mormon Factor In The Electoral College Prognostications

Ronald 2 Comments

The Mormon Church (Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints) is an important factor in the American West.

Usually, Mormons as a group are conservative Republicans, but the odds are growing that states that would usually vote Republican might not vote for Donald Trump, due to his religious bigotry displayed toward Muslims, as Mormons suffered persecution in the 19th century on their trek to Salt Lake City, Utah, and Mitt Romney, himself a Mormon, is vehemently against Trump.

60 percent in Utah, 24 percent in Idaho, and 9 percent in Wyoming are Mormons,with 4-5 percent in Nevada, Arizona, and Montana. Only about 2 percent in America are Mormon, similar to Jews in population and percentage.

The most Mormon states are Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming, with a total of 13 electoral votes. Nevada, Arizona, and Montana follow, with a total of 20 electoral votes. All of these six states, except Nevada, have been reliably Republican.

So we are talking about a possible loss of 27 electoral votes, not counting Nevada’s six electoral votes.

Donald Trump cannot afford to lose these states, but he could, indeed, some or all of them going to Democrat Hillary Clinton over the religious issue!

Small States’ (One House Member And Two Senators) Influence In Congress Since 1945

Ronald Leave a comment

There are seven states that have had only one member of the House of Representatives, along with two US Senators, in the past 70 years. but despite their small populations, these states have had a massive impact on American politics and history!  In addition, for the first few decades since 1945, Nevada also had one House member until growth caused two, and then, three seats in the House.

The seven states are Vermont, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, and Alaska!

But North Dakota, South Dakota,and Montana had two members of the House until recent decades when reapportionment caused them to lose a second seat.

So only Vermont, Delaware, Wyoming, and Alaska (since 1959) stand alone as consistently having one House member and two Senators per state.

But look at their influence:

Vermont had George Aiken (R) (1941-1975) and has Patrick Leahy (D) for 41 years (1975 to Present) and counting now, and Bernie Sanders since 1990,  who  was the lone House member for 16 years before election to the Senate in 2006,making him the longest serving Independent in the history of both houses of Congress.  Also, Howard Dean, former Governor of the state, was a leading contender for the Democratic nomination in 2004, and then became head of the Democratic National Committee, and helped the rise of Barack Obama with a “50 state” strategy between 2004-2008.

Delaware had Joe Biden as Senator for six terms from 1973-2009, and now as Vice President.  He became one of the longest serving Senators of all time, and sought the Presidency in 1988 and 2008.

Wyoming had Dick Cheney as its lone Congressman for ten years from 1979-1989, before he ended up as Secretary of Defense under the first Bush Presidency, and Vice President in the second Bush Presidency.  Also, Alan Simpson served in the Senate from 1979-1997 as  a Republican, and Gale McGree from 1959-1977 as a Democrat.

Alaska had Ted Stevens in the Senate for 40 years from 1968 to 2009, the longest serving Republican Senator in American history.  Also, Sarah Palin , while Governor, was the Vice Presidential nominee for the Republicans in 2008.

And if one looks at the other states which had one Congressman at least for the last few decades, we have South Dakota and Senator George McGovern (1963-1981), the 1972 Democratic Presidential nominee; Montana, with Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield (D) (1953-1977) from 1961-1977; Nevada with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) (1987-Present) from 2007-2015; and North Dakota Senators Kent Conrad (1987-2013) and Bryan Dorgan (1992-2011).

So the “small” states have really had a major role in American politics, despite their small populations!

Family Names May Not Help Democratic Senators In Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, But Senate Will Remain Democratic With Margin of 53-47 Or 52-48!

Ronald Leave a comment

Three Democratic Senators with famous family names and moderate conservative records in office seem likely to be victims of the Republican opposition, and to lose their seats in November.

Mark Begich’s father was a Congressman from Alaska, but Begich seems likely to lose his seat to Dan Sullivan, the GOP nominee for his seat.

Mark Pryor’s father was a Senator from Arkansas, but Pryor seems likely to lose his seat to Republican Congressman Tom Cotton.

Mary Landrieu’s father and brother were Mayors of New Orleans, but although she is known for winning tight races, it seems likely she will lose her seat in the Senate to Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy.

However, these losses are likely to be matched by victories in Kentucky, Georgia, and Kansas, which will make it an even balance, and Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado, and Oregon are highly likely to remain Democratic. It is also clear that Montana and West Virginia are likely to switch from Democratic to Republican.

So the one seat left to be mentioned is South Dakota, with its four way race of Republican former Governor Mike Rounds; former Republican, now Independent Larry Pressler; and Democrat Rick Weiland, with even a fourth candidate, another Independent, Gordon Howie, making it highly likely that either Weiland or Pressler (who voted for Barack Obama twice despite his earlier GOP service in the Senate) might win this donnybrook of a race and join the Democratic caucus in the US Senate.

So this blogger predicts a final Senate of either 52 or 53 Democrats and Independents, and 47 or 48 Republicans, depending on South Dakota’s final results. That would be a 2 to 3 seat gain in the Senate for the GOP, but control of the Senate continuing for the Democrats!

Washington Post 95% In Belief Republicans Will Win Senate In November: Totally A Delusion!

Ronald 1 Comment

It is amazing that the Washington Post is predicting by a percentage of 95 percent that the Republicans will win the six seats needed to control the US Senate in 2015-2016.

Even if they do, which is highly unlikely, with two thirds of the seats in 2016 having incumbent Republicans, it is certain that the Democrats, if they lose control will regain it with a major margin in 2016!

But to believe that the Republicans will gain six seats is belied by the likely defeat of Pat Roberts in Kansas and Mike Rounds in South Dakota, both which no one had thought possible to go to the Democrats.

And those who think Mary Landrieu is not going to win her seat in Louisiana forget her ability to survive, as the only sane major figure in a state which includes Bobby Jindal and David Vitter, both disgraces in every possible manner!

And Mitch McConnell in Kentucky is not going to win his seat this time around against Allison Lundergan Grimes, and Georgia will go Democratic as well with Michelle Nunn, which means even if the Republicans win six seats, they will lose three in those those two states and Kansas, and will not win one of the so called three “guaranteed” states of South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia!

North Carolina with Kay Hagan seems safe, while admittedly, Arkansas, with Mark Pryor, is in more danger.

Expect overall a three seat Senate gain for the Republicans, with the Senate going from 55-45 to 52-48, including a likely four independents, from Maine, Vermont, South Dakota (or Democrat Rick Weiland winning instead of Independent Larry Pressler), and Kansas!

The Democratic Women In Senate Races

Ronald 1 Comment

The role of women in the Democratic Party Senate races is becoming much more significant, and at this time, there is a good chance that many will be successful, including the incumbent women and the challenger women.

In the first category, we have Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina, and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire.

In the second category, we have Senate candidates Natalie Tennant in West Virginia, Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, Michelle Nunn of Georgia, and Amanda Curtis of Montana.

At this point, two months before the election, the odds are good for Landrieu, Hagan, Shaheen, Grimes and Nunn, with Tennant and Curtis more likely to fail to be elected to replace retiring Jay Rockefeller and Max Baucus.

With 16 women Democratic Senators, it is likely that we will see  a few more in 2015!

Women In Congress And State Governorships

Ronald Leave a comment

With the celebration of Women’s Equality Day yesterday, it is worth attention to point out statistics on women office holders in the history of America.

There have been 298 women House members, starting with Jeanette Rankin of Montana in 1917. There are 82 women House members in the present, with 62 Democrats and 20 Republicans.

There have been 44 women Senators, starting with Hattie Caraway of Arkansas in 1931, after Rebecca Felton of Georgia served for just one day in 1922. Twenty women serve as Senator in the present, 16 Democrats and 4 Republicans.

There have been 36 woman Governors, starting with Nellie Tayloe Ross of Wyoming in 1927. Five women serve as Governor in the present, four Republicans and one Democrat.

Every state has elected women to the House of Representatives except Iowa, Mississippi, Delaware, Vermont, Alaska, and North Dakota, but the last two states have elected women to the US Senate.

Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer Self Destructs His Presidential Campaign!

Ronald 1 Comment

Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer has been hinting very strongly that he plans to run for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, if no one else does, or even if others do run.

Well, Brian, you can forget it after your wild, wooly comments to NATIONAL JOURNAL, which did an interview and detailed article on the former Montana Governor, who actually was quite effective in that position, and can have a charming personality.

But Schweitzer totally unraveled, trying to be funny, but really striking out.

He spoke of California Senator Dianne Feinstein as if she was a street walker when she seemed shocked about government spying, when she well knew such was going on, something one could, rightfully, criticize, but NOT in the way that Schweitzer did. Can you imagine if he were President and had to face Feinstein, a senior Democrat, in meetings at the White House?

But even worse, Schweitzer made the statement that Southern men are effeminate in their moves and gestures, and referred to Eric Cantor, the soon to leave House Majority Leader, stating that Schweitzer’s “Gaydar” made him sense the gayness of Southerners, although he said, apparently, Cantor is not gay.

What kind of comment is that to make about anyone, and to label a whole geographical section of men as being that? This is extremely looney behavior, and not funny at all! And imagine having to deal with Southern members of Congress after saying that!

A President must have diplomacy and tact, which Schweitzer, apparently, does not have at all!

Schweitzer might have made an interesting race, but now it is a joke in concept more than ever, even if he chooses to put himself out there!

The best chance, although highly remote, of a politician from “Big Sky Country” being President is now part of history for sure! Suggestion to Brian Schweitzer, disappear, as you have effectively lost any chance of serving in Washington DC for anything in the future, including an appointment to a Cabinet position by a President Hillary Clinton, or any other Democrat! You have blown any chance you had for national service with your big mouth! Be gone!

Do Not Believe Polls Which Predict GOP Senate Majority!

Ronald Leave a comment

So many polls are now predicting that the Republican Party will win control of the US Senate. But polls have been proved wrong before, and the Democrats should not run scared, just run aggressively against the Do Nothing Republicans, similar to what Harry Truman did in 1948!

The Republican Party is wrong on immigration reform; is wrong on the right of workers; is wrong on the treatment of women at work and in their private lives; is wrong on the environment and climate change; is wrong on the need for gun regulation; is wrong on the use of the race card; is wrong on its refusal to promote infrastructure spending; is wrong on its decision to oppose more expenditures on veterans; is wrong in its opposition to ObamaCare; is wrong in its attacks on Social Security and Medicare; is wrong in its efforts to deny voting rights; is wrong in its advocacy of wars everywhere, rather than pursuing diplomacy and peace; is wrong in their anti intellectual, anti science agenda; is wrong in its promotion of theocracy, rather than separation of church and state; and is wrong in its planned strategy to obstruct all judicial and executive nominations and therefore to cripple operation of the courts and government agencies.

The Democrats are likely to keep the following Senators–Mark Pryor of Arkansas; Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; Mark Warner of Virginia; and Mark Begich of Alaska.

They have a good chance of defeating Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, with their nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes; win the open Senate seat in Georgia with Michelle Nunn; win the open Senate seat in Iowa with Bruce Braley; win the open Senate seat in Michigan with Gary Peters; and an even chance to win the open West Virginia seat with Natalie Tennant over Republican Shelley Moore Capito.

The only seats seen likely to switch from D to R are: South Dakota and Montana; while the Democrats have a good shot at winning Kentucky and Georgia. With West Virginia possibly going Republican with Capito, and Maine having a chance that Republican Susan Collins loses to Democrat Shanna Bellows, if such happens, it is no gain by the Republicans.

The best prediction is that the Republicans MIGHT gain two seats, falling four states short of the six needed to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader, with him likely to lose to Grimes in Kentucky, in any case.

The worst case scenario for the Democrats is the loss of South Dakota and Montana; and the loss of West Virginia, therefore meaning a Republican gain of three seats!

And in 2016, with two thirds of the seats being Republicans, the Democrats are sure, in an election where their Democratic Presidential nominee will be heavily favored, to win a large number of additional seats, nearing up to 60 from a possible low of 52 in 2014!