The Mormon Factor In The Electoral College Prognostications

The Mormon Church (Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints) is an important factor in the American West.

Usually, Mormons as a group are conservative Republicans, but the odds are growing that states that would usually vote Republican might not vote for Donald Trump, due to his religious bigotry displayed toward Muslims, as Mormons suffered persecution in the 19th century on their trek to Salt Lake City, Utah, and Mitt Romney, himself a Mormon, is vehemently against Trump.

60 percent in Utah, 24 percent in Idaho, and 9 percent in Wyoming are Mormons,with 4-5 percent in Nevada, Arizona, and Montana. Only about 2 percent in America are Mormon, similar to Jews in population and percentage.

The most Mormon states are Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming, with a total of 13 electoral votes. Nevada, Arizona, and Montana follow, with a total of 20 electoral votes. All of these six states, except Nevada, have been reliably Republican.

So we are talking about a possible loss of 27 electoral votes, not counting Nevada’s six electoral votes.

Donald Trump cannot afford to lose these states, but he could, indeed, some or all of them going to Democrat Hillary Clinton over the religious issue!

2 comments on “The Mormon Factor In The Electoral College Prognostications

  1. D July 1, 2016 10:45 am

    If Donald Trump wins a Republican pickup of the presidency, here in 2016, he starts with the 24 states (and 206 electoral votes) carried in 2012 by his party’s losing nominee, Mitt Romney. The pickups begin with the 69 electoral votes combined from bellwether states Florida (29), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), and Colorado (9). These add up to a winning 275. And, depending on the national shift, more that could come would include both Iowa (6) and New Hampshire (4).

    The fact that Utah—U-T-A-H—is in discussion, has even been considered in latest status-of-the-race reports, suggests that Donald Trump will not only lose but that may look like he intends to lose. Utah was the Republicans’ best state—percentage-points margins—in every election, except 2008, since 1976. So, nine of the last ten presidential election cycles—and Utah has been the GOP’s No. 1; which also means it has been the Democrats’ No. 50.

    Please let that be absorbed.

  2. Ronald July 1, 2016 10:54 am

    Very interesting point, D.

    Trump seems more than ever on the way to an historic overwhelming defeat!

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