Presidential Election Of 1992

The Complete Reversal Of American Politics: Republicans In The South, Democrats In Large Populated Northeastern, Midwestern And Western States!

The defeat of Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu on Saturday marks the complete reversal of American politics from the years 1877 to the present.

After the Reconstruction of the South ended, with Union Army troops leaving, twelve years after the Civil War, the South became an area totally dominated by Democrats, resentful of the Republican Party, Abraham Lincoln, the Civil War defeat, and the passage of Amendments 13, 14, and 15, ending slavery, making blacks citizens, and giving the men the right to vote.

The South went into massive resistance, creating Jim Crow segregation to replace slavery, and until the election of Herbert Hoover in 1928 and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, it was always a solid Democratic South with no black voting, due to discriminatory state laws that were ignored by generations of the federal government. Hoover won much of the South due to his Catholic opponent, Alfred E. Smith, in 1928, and Eisenhower won over Adlai Stevenson twice in the 1950s due to his personal popularity and World War II D Day reputation.

But only when the Civil Rights Movement was in full swing, starting in the 1950s, and reaching its peak with the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 under Lyndon B. Johnson, did we see the beginning of a mass exodus of office holders and ordinary white population, to the Republican Party, starting with Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina in 1964, switching parties to back Republican Senator Barry Goldwater against President Lyndon B. Johnson.

As the Democrats started to lose power in the South, the nomination of Southern governors Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and the rise of “New South” Governors like them and others in the Democratic Party, slowed up the switch to the GOP.

But the election of Barack Obama, considered anathema in the South, has now led to the entire wiping out of Southern Democrats in Congress, except for black and Jewish members of the House in districts gerrymandered that give the Republicans more total Congressional and state legislative seats in the South. Only a few other white non jewish members of the House remain, and they are endangered in the political climate of the South in 2014.

Only Virginia has both its Senators and Governor (Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Terry McAuliffe) as Democrats, and only Florida has one other Democratic Senator, Bill Nelson at this point, as we enter 2015.

And both Virginia and Florida have Republican dominated legislatures, as well as the other states that made up the Confederate States of America.

And, of course, Florida includes the heavily Northern South Florida, and Virginia has the heavily Northern North Virginia, influenced by being part of the DC suburbs, and otherwise, these three Senators and one Governor would not be in public office.

So the complete reversal of a century and a half ago has occurred, and is unlikely to be changed for a generation or more, at the least.

This means that the South will remain as it is now for a generation or more, and that the issue of race nearly a century and a half ago, again stands out as the key difference that separates that section from the rest of the country.

Meanwhile, the heavily populated areas of the nation in the Northeast, Midwest and West are more Democratic than ever, and are unlikely to change either over time, creating political deadlock long term over the future, stifling change and creating constant political conflict and deadlock!

It Looks As If The Bush Dynasty Is Not Done: Hints That Jeb Bush Will Announce For President!

It now seems clear that Jeb Bush, the former Florida Governor; and brother of the 43rd President, George W. Bush; and son of the 41st President, George H. W. Bush, will soon announce his candidacy for the 2016 Republican Presidential nomination.

Jeb has not run for political office since 2002, and has not been in political office since 2006, but he is making the rounds of appropriate sites and venues, and speaking out on the issues as he sees them, many of them alienating the Tea Party Movement within the GOP, but soothing the mainstream, “Establishment” Republicans, who tend to control the party machinery when it comes to actual nomination battles, including those of Bob Dole in 1996, John McCain in 2008, and Mitt Romney in 2012.

If Jeb does run, he will run as a hawk in foreign policy, and sympathetic on immigration and “common core” educational standards in domestic policy, all of which will irritate many who are part of the right wing extremists in the party in 2014.

If he runs, it will also make the Bush family a true dynasty covering nearly 40 years of American politics, as his dad was considered as a possible Vice Presidential alternative, instead of Gerald Ford, when Spiro Agnew resigned at the time that Richard Nixon was under fire for Watergate.

Ford also thought of George H W Bush as a possible running mate in 1976, maybe not seriously, but under consideration, and then Bush became a Presidential candidate in 1980, ended up as the runner up, and agreed to join Ronald Reagan as Vice President for two terms. This was followed by one term in the White House, and then a bitter defeat to Bill Clinton in 1992.

But his two oldest sons then ran for the Governorships of Texas and Florida in 1994, and when Jeb lost in Florida by a very small margin, he set his sights on 1998, when he won in Florida, and then served as Florida Governor for two terms, while brother George W. went to the White House for two controversial terms.

Jeb running would create great controversy, but the Bush Family is not afraid of that, and it seems doubtful now that mother Barbara arguing against Jeb running will be listened to anymore.

Were he to win and serve two terms, Jeb would add to the fact that the Bush Dynasty would have lasted longer than any other, even more than the Adamses (John and John Quincy, and with THREE Presidents, not two. And the theoretical Kennedy dynasty would look quite insignificant, since only John F. Kennedy had the opportunity to serve as President, despite the desires of many that Robert and Ted Kennedy might do the same.

So although the Bush dynasty might not seem as glamorous as the Kennedy dynasty has often been seen, it is still making history!

Jerry Brown’s Fourth Presidential Campaign Coming In 2016?

California Governor Jerry Brown is one of the most fascinating figures in American politics.

Always a bit different than other politicians, and often seen in his younger days as “flaky”, Brown is now 76 years old, and will begin his fourth term as governor of the largest state in the Union, California, next month.

Brown became noticed nationally precisely forty years ago when he succeeded Ronald Reagan, who had defeated Brown’s dad, Pat Brown, who had served two terms as Governor, before Reagan’s two terms.

Brown was 36 years old when he began his first term as Governor. Now he is 76 years old, and has proved to be a true survivor over four decades of American history.

After leaving the California Governorship at the end of 1982, and having lost a race for the US Senate, Brown ended up in public office again as Mayor of Oakland, and State Attorney General, before deciding to run again for Governor in 2010, 28 years after his having left that office.

Brown came into a state reeling from economic disaster under previous Governor Gray Davis, who was removed from office in a recall election in 2003, but his successor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, had little more luck on the economy.

But now, the California economy is flourishing by comparison, with the budget deficit overcome by tax increases and some budget cuts.

So there are observers who think Brown might just announce his fourth Presidential candidacy, having challenged ultimate nominee Jimmy Carter in 1976; President Carter in 1980; and ultimate nominee Bill Clinton in 1992.

And the thought that Brown might challenge Hillary Clinton, 24 years after challenging her husband, is, in itself, a fascinating story.

Is there any chance that Jerry Brown, 40 years after first trying for the Presidency, could actually be elected the 45th President?

The odds would be astronomical, but considering that we had a failed candidate (Richard Nixon) come back in 1968; an obscure peanut farmer from Georgia (Jimmy Carter) win in 1976; a losing Presidential contender nearly 70 (Ronald Reagan) come back to win in 1980; a candidate who had a sex scandal erupt during the battle for the nomination in 1992 (Bill Clinton), but overcome it to win: and an mixed race first term US Senator with an unusual name (Barack Obama) win in 2008; who can say this could not happen?

Two Experienced National Presidential Campaigners Who Could Challenge Hillary Clinton For Democratic Presidential Nomination: Al Gore And Jerry Brown!

The basic belief that goes around in political circles is that Hillary Clinton has the Democratic Presidential nomination for the asking, and has more experience and background than anyone who could possibly run against her in the primaries, with the major exception of Vice President Joe Biden!

But it is also noted that, actually, there are two very experienced Democrats who have run for President before, along with Hillary and Joe, and yet few are paying any attention to these two men!

I am talking about former Vice President Al Gore, who lost the Presidency in 2000 to George W. Bush, despite having won the national popular vote by about 540,000, but losing the contested election in Florida in the Supreme Court case of Bush V. Gore. Also, Gore sought the Presidency in 1988, before losing the nomination to Michael Dukakis.

I am also referring here to three time Democratic Presidential seeker, California Governor Jerry Brown, who sought the nomination in 1976 and again in 1980 against Jimmy Carter, and against Bill Clinton in 1992!

Both are tested, although both are from “long ago” in many people’s minds, since Gore has never tried for public office since 2000, and sixteen years is a very long time in politics. One could say that Hillary and Joe are also from “long ago”, but they have continued to hold public office consistently since the new century began, with Hillary only “retiring” in 2013 to write her memoir on her years as Secretary of State!

Jerry Brown goes back much further having been Governor of California at age 35, serving from 1975 to 1983; then later being Oakland Mayor and California Attorney General; and then returning to the Governorship 28 years after leaving it, and becoming the oldest Governor in the history of the state in 2011, and now running for a second term at age 76.

There have been rumors that Brown would love to run again, and dog the Clintons, as he did Jimmy Carter. It would be ironic if he was to challenge Hillary as he did her husband in 1992!

Of course, Brown would be nearly 79 were he to become President in 2017, and Al Gore would be nearly 69, just five months younger than Hillary Clinton, while Joe Biden would be 74 at the time of the inauguration!

One might say that having all these “old folks” running or considering the Presidency is disturbing, and add to that mix, two liberals who are rumored to run, If Hillary chooses not to run, or possibly even if she does—Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who would be 67 on Inauguration Day, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (technically a Socialist), who would be 75.

While we are at it, why not add Secretary of State John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic Presidential nominee, to the list, with him being 73 if elected to the Presidency in 2016!

These people, all seven of them, represent a lot of talent and experience and brilliance, but ranging from 67 to 79 is NOT a good trend, particularly with the strong likelihood that the Republican Party will nominate someone much younger, probably by a full generation, or close to it, in years!

Happy 90th Birthday, President George H. W. Bush!

Today is the 90th birthday of former President George H. W. Bush, whose wife, Barbara Bush, celebrated her 89th Birthday just four days ago! Bush is the third of four recent Presidents to reach the age of 90, along with Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan, and when Jimmy Carter reaches 90 on October 1, it will mean four consecutive Presidents have reached that magical age. Only John Adams and Herbert Hoover, of earlier Presidents, reached that age!

The Bushes are the longest lasting marriage of all Presidential marriages in history, and will reach 70 years early next year!

President Bush seemed close to the end just 19 months ago, at Thanksgiving 2012, but miraculously overcame the crisis, and now, despite being in a wheelchair full time, the 41st President remains active with family and intellectual matters!

Bush has now been out of office for 21 plus years, and his time in office began a quarter century ago in 1989!

Bush has become much respected and loved as the years have gone by, even though he suffered a bitter defeat to Bill Clinton in 1992, the second worst performance of an incumbent President running for reelection in American history.

The Bush Presidency continues to be an area of growing interest and debate, but Bush has become an elder statesman, much admired and appreciated.

So Happy Birthday, Mr. President!

Age Issue Shows Itself Again With Karl Rove Statement On Hillary Clinton

The age issue is rearing its ugly head again with Karl Rove’s comment on Hillary Clinton and her health issue in the last months of her time as Secretary of State, when she fell, hit her head, and was hospitalized for a few days, and took a month to recuperate.

One must remember that Hillary Clinton set records for travel mileage as Secretary of State, enough to cause anyone health issues temporarily, but there is no hint that she is not up to the challenge of running for President.

Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden too, are both extremely qualified for the Presidency, and Karl Rove is going in dangerous territory in using the age issue, particularly when it is clear that Ronald Reagan was never the same after his gunshot wound ten weeks into his Presidency, and seemed lacking in alertness when debating Walter Mondale in the first Presidential debate in 1984; fell asleep with the Pope, and at cabinet meetings; is rumored to have been in early stages of dementia and Alzheimers in his second term; and had trouble answering questions on a constant basis at press conferences. It was often said that Nancy Reagan was his eyes and ears in more ways than one.

Since both Hillary and Joe are, clearly, intellectually, superior to Reagan, Rove’s comment only draws more attention to the shortcomings of Reagan, but also to other recent GOP nominees Bob Dole and John McCain, both of whom were in their 70s. Or is this sexism, because Hillary is a woman?

Having said all of the above, it is still reality that a younger Republican Presidential nominee in 2016 will likely be seen as having some edge over a much older Democratic nominee, as only Reagan has had the edge as the older nominee over much younger opponents. So it brings up the question as to whether it would be better for a younger, newer generation Democratic nominee, as with JFK in 1960, Carter in 1976, Clinton in 1992, and Obama in 2008. It is well worth careful consideration!

March Of Second Year Of Presidential Term Not Good Time To Assume Presidential Nominees For Next Term, Proved By History!

As March 2014 ends, Hillary Clinton is the runaway favorite for the Democratic Presidential nomination, which is comforting to her, but going by history, no guarantee of her nomination in the summer of 2016.

Witness the following facts:

Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts was the front runner in polls for 1976, 1980, and 1984, in March 1974, March 1978, and March 1982.

Senator Gary Hart of Colorado was the front runner in polls for 1988, in March 1986.

Governor Mario Cuomo of New York was the front runner in polls for 1992, in March 1990.

Former Vice President Al Gore was the front runner in polls for 2004, in March 2002.

Senator Hillary Clinton of New York was the front runner in polls for 2008, in March 2006.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani was the front runner in polls for 2008, in March 2006.

Did anyone ever know of a President Ted Kennedy, a President Gary Hart, a President Mario Cuomo, a President Al Gore (other than the contested Election Of 2000), a President Hillary Clinton for the past five years, or a President Rudy Guiliani?

Who was seriously thinking of Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, or Barack Obama in 1974 or 1990 or 2006? And who was seriously thinking of Michael Dukakis in 1986 or John Kerry in 2002? The answer is that none of the top five in polling in all these different March second year of the term polls were these five listed in this paragraph, including the last three Democratic Presidents!

So the game of Presidential candidacy is far from resolved at this early point of the battle for the next Presidential nominations in both parties!

Jerry Brown: A Legend In California Politics!

California Governor Jerry Brown has had an amazing career, and apparently, will continue it at nearly age 76, as he has announced a campaign for a second consecutive term as Governor of the largest state in the Union!

Brown, the son of former Governor Edmund G. (Pat) Brown, who governed the state from 1959 to 1967 (and lost in 1966 to Ronald Reagan), first was elected to office in 1970, serving as California Secretary of State, at age 32. Then, he won two consecutive terms as Governor in 1974 and 1978, becoming Governor at age 36. He also was a Democratic contender for the Presidency in both 1976 and 1980 against Jimmy Carter. He later challenged Bill Clinton and other Democrats for the Presidency, in a third round, in 1992.

After leaving the Governorship, Brown was out of politics for 16 years, having lost a Senate race, his only political loss in 1982. But he went on to become Mayor of Oakland from 1999-2007, and then State Attorney General from 2007-2011. until elected Governor again, after 28 years earlier having left the Governorship.

So Brown was the youngest California Governor in modern history, and is now the oldest, and will be nearly 81 when he finishes his fourth term in that office in January 2019. an election this fall which is guaranteed to succeed.

Brown has become a legend in California politics, and one should not be so sure that IF Hillary Clinton seems to falter, Brown just might enter the Presidential race in 2016, although he denies any such intention.

The Potential For A Massive Hillary Clinton Landslide Of Historic Proportions In 2016!

The Republican Party is managing, by its rhetoric, including most recently, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, to insult women about their libidos, and that only helps the Democratic Party and its likely Presidential nominee in 2016, Hillary Clinton.

Between the issue of women, and also alienation of African Americans, Hispanics and Latinos, gays and lesbians, labor, environmentalists, the struggling middle class, the poor, those who believe in science’s validity over religious dogma, and those who have an open mind on social issues, the GOP is continuing to promote its own suicide, and the potential is there for a massive Hillary Clinton landslide of historic proportions, particularly for a Democrat!

The assumption is that Hillary Clinton can count on the 26 states and the District of Columbia which voted for Barack Obama in 2012.

Additionally, the potential for Indiana and North Carolina, which voted for Obama in 2008 but then turned “Red””, to go back to the Democrats, is seen as highly likely.

Then, the states of South Carolina, Georgia, and Texas in the South, along with Arizona and Montana in the West, and Missouri in the Midwest, (usually a bellwether state but not so in 2008 and 2012) to go Democratic in 2016, particularly with the growing Hispanic and Latino population, is seen as possible, or if not in 2020 for sure.

That would make 34 states, and then there is the issue of five other states which went for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but then turned “Red”, so the question is could the wife of Bill Clinton, because of the Clinton brand 20-25 years ago, by 2016, be able to convince those five states (West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana) to switch over to the Democrats, with those states also having growing numbers of Hispanics and Latinos? After all, Arkansas is the Clintons’ “home” state, and Tennessee was Vice President Al Gore”s “home” state, while the other three states, all extremely poor and deprived, were Democratic in the 1990s!

So the maximum number of states could be 39, plus the District of Columbia, leaving only eleven states which were solidly Republican in the 1990s, and have remained “Red” ever since—Alabama, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska.

So were those eleven states to vote predictably, which is extremely likely, the GOP nominee for President would have ONLY 55 electoral votes, meaning Hillary Clinton would have won a grand total of 483 electoral votes! Imagine an election of 483-55 for the Democratic Party, which would certainly make for a Democratic dominance in the Senate and a majority in the House of Representatives, as well, as such an electoral vote landslide would insure a “coattail” effect!

The Dominance Of Political Family Dynasties

It now seems clear that Hillary Clinton will be running for the Presidency, and that she is very likely to become the 45th President of the United States, and its first woman President.

Every poll imaginable shows her far in the lead against any Democratic challenger, including Vice President Joe Biden, who is the only other Democrat to even score more than a couple of percent in any poll, but about 50-60 points behind the former First Lady, former Senator, and former Secretary of State.

And every poll also shows that NO Republican comes anywhere near Hillary Clinton, with the only one who seemed to compete, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, rapidly collapsing in the midst of the “Bridgegate ” and associated scandals, with the issue of funding of projects with federal money for Hurricane Sandy the more dangerous scandal for Christie and his future.

Hillary Clinton enters the 2016 campaign almost as if she was an incumbent, and really, no one has ever been in as enviable a position as she seems to be. But this means that she must not take anything for granted, run hard and vigorously and not assume victory as Republican nominee Thomas E. Dewey thought in 1948, before he lost in an upset victory by President Harry Truman.

Hillary Clinton must be able and willing to take as much flak and attacks on everything imaginable in her record and life story, and she does seem to be tough enough to deal with that, plus the inevitable death threats which will be visited upon her at a rate probably at least equivalent to Abraham Lincoln, and possibly at the same astronomical rate of President Barack Obama, who faces, approximately, 30 death threats in some form per day!

Many might think that a person who will be 69 and three months of age at the time of the inauguration, making her the second oldest inaugurated President in American history, after Ronald Reagan, who was about eight months older at his first inauguration, would think twice about spending the next ten years of her life, until age 77 and three months, if she served two complete terms, with the pressure cooker and stresses of running for President, and dealing with an increasingly complex and troubled world and nation. But she seems game for the challenge, and would certainly come into office more experienced and better equipped for the Presidency than almost any occupant of the Oval Office we have seen.

But her likely accession to the Presidency, with the full team support and financial backing of many Obama Administration and campaign functionaries, is a true sign that Vice President Joe Biden should give up the quest for the White House, as he is about five years older, and would be the oldest first term President, and if he were to serve two terms, would be past 82 at the end. This author is a great Joe Biden fan, but it does seem time for party unity, in the midst of Republican chaos and anarchy, for him to accept reality, and as soon as Hillary Clinton announces, to be gracious and announce he will not challenge her for the nomination.

There is no likelihood of any Democrat bothering to challenge her, particularly if Biden drops out, and the long range shot by former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer would only be like a Don Quixote battling a windmill!

If Hillary Clinton succeeds in her quest, she will have made the Clinton dynasty the most dominant in modern American history, without any debate. Consider that her husband, Bill Clinton affected the nation from the time he ran in 1992 until he left in 2001, followed by Hillary as Senator from New York for eight years, and then four years as Secretary of State, making for a total of 21 years, now followed by two years in private life, but ten years into the future of campaigning, and possible two terms in the Presidency, which would make for a grand total of 31 years of national influence. And even these two years of private life, Hillary Clinton remains a national figure of great respect and renown, so one could say 33 years, a third of a century, the Clintons may have been the dominant influence in American history–between 1992 and 2025!

The dominance of the Clintons is only matched recently by the Bushes, with father George H. W. on the political radar from his 1980 challenge to Ronald Reagan until his forced retirement in 1993, after losing to Bill Clinton. Then, his son George W. came on the scene as Texas Governor in 1995 and son Jeb as Florida Governor starting in 1999. When George W. ran in 2000, and then won two terms, leaving in 2009, it meant a total of 14 years of senior Bush, followed by 14 years of junior Bush, for a total of 28 years. Ironically, if Jeb were now to run, which his mother does not advise him to do, and which Speaker of the House John Boehner thinks he should do, and were he to win, he could surpass the potential Clinton family record!

Compared to the Clintons and the Bushes, no other family dominates, as the Kennedy generation of John and Robert only lasted 8 years, and after Ted Kennedy lost his only real chance for the Presidency in 1980 against Jimmy Carter in the primaries, it meant a total of maybe 20 years of Kennedy dominance, although Ted did stay as an influential Senator until his death in 2009.

The only other family worthy of mention are the Roosevelts, if one counts Teddy and Franklin as part of the same dynasty, although different parties and generations completely. But even TR and FDR were only dominant for a total of 20 years combined, although TR remained a national figure for the ten years after his Presidency until his death.

It would certainly be ironic if we ended up with Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush opposing each other in 2016, as a battle of the titans, the two families who have more dominated American politics than any other in American history!