Michigan

Democrats Gaining In Southeast And Southwest, Likely Transforming American Politics In The 2020s

Indications are that Democrats are starting to gain support in both the Southeast (North Carolina, Georgia) and the Southwest (Arizona), and are running even in Florida and Texas, and keeping their lead in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

If this trend continues, the Midwest Rust Belt states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania), while still important, will be less significant in future Presidential elections.

And it looks as if many of the Senate seats that are being decided this November will end up with a Democratic Senator–as in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.

The electoral map in future elections will be vastly different than it has been in previous election rounds.

Donald Trump Demonstrates Mental Instability And Lunacy, Presenting Issue Of 25th Amendment

The mental health and condition of President Donald Trump is deteriorating rapidly, and he appears more than ever to be displaying mental instability and lunacy, which is bringing up the issue of the 25th Amendment possibly being considered for use.

Trump has been on Twitter during his COVID 19 illness, attacking his own cabinet members, including Attorney General William Barr and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, along with FBI head Christopher Wray.

He is talking about arresting former President Barack Obama; his opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, who is miles ahead of him in all polls; his former opponent, Hillary Clinton; Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who was the subject of a kidnap plot by right wing fanatics; and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, who is calling for Congressional legislation on removal of the President as a threat to national security and safety.

He has also termed Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Kamala Harris as a Communist, endangering her life with extremists by labeling her with such a ridiculous label, reminiscent of former Wisconsin Senator Joseph McCarthy’s Communist “witch hunt” in the 1950s. This will increase the number of threats and dangers to Harris, as she runs for Vice President, and when she is Vice President, a heartbeat away from the Presidency. It will also affect her husband and his two children, who are Jewish. There is a tone of racism in the attack on Harris, as she is of mixed race, with a Jamaican father and Asian Indian mother, a tactic used by the right wing against former President Barack Obama, with his Kenyan African father and his white mother.

As we are down to 25 days until Election Day, and with Trump still apparently affected by powerful steroid drugs, the nation sits on the precipice of the danger of bloodshed and violence, and it seems necessary for powerful leaders in the government to take responsible action to protect the nation from such threat presented by the 45th President of the United States!

Ohio, The Buckeye State, May Again Be Instructive On Presidential Election

Ohio, the Buckeye State, may again be instructive on the Presidential Election of 2020, as it has been 45 out of 54 times in the past, and only twice on the losing side since 1900–1944 and 1960!

No Republican President has won the White House without winning Ohio.

Ohio is 34th largest of the 50 states in land area; 10th most densely populated; and seventh most populous; and it has been losing electoral votes steadily over the decades, as the Sun Belt states have grown larger in population.

But it still matters greatly, and recent polls indicate Joe Biden taking a lead in Ohio over Donald Trump.

As I wrote on this blog on September 15, 2018, Ohio historically has been the most predictable state in the Electoral College results, followed by Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico.

If Donald Trump cannot win Ohio, there is no path for him to win the Presidency for a second term in 2020. The public opinion polls as I write, indicate troubles for Trump also in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, so the Midwest heartland is not for him, as things stand now.

Nebraska District 2 And Maine District 2 Could Decide Presidential Election Of 2020? Really? Yes!

Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that allow a split electoral vote, with Nebraska having 5 electoral votes and Maine having 4 electoral votes.

But in 2008, Barack Obama won one electoral vote in Nebraska, while the state majority went Republican.

And in 2016, Donald Trump won one electoral vote in Maine, while the state majority went Democratic.

Assuming Joe Biden won back just two Trump states from 2016–Pennsylvania and Michigan, but failed to win back Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, other Obama states in 2012 lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the following possible scenarios could occur!

We would go from 306 for Trump and subtract 20 for Pennsylvania and 16 for Michigan, and Biden would win with exactly 270 electoral votes!

But if the one Maine district stayed with Trump, the electoral vote would be a tie, 269-269, and the House of Representatives would choose the President, as they did in 1800 and 1824, with each state having one vote based on the majority of either party holding Congressional seats in each state.

But the 269-269 vote could be overcome if the one Nebraska district switched to support of Biden, as it did for Obama in 2008, and Biden would have 270 electoral votes!

Right now 26 states have Republican majority delegations, but that could change, if the Democrats were able to win two more states with a majority delegation of their party.

Of course, seven states only have one House member, so that person alone determines the state vote in those seven states.

Also, if we ended up with 25 states having a Republican and 25 having Democratic majority delegations, then there would be a massive constitutional crisis with the tie that would exist!

We could have Inauguration Day approach, and no certainty that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be declared the winner.

So then, Nancy Pelosi, assuming the House of Representatives stayed in Democratic hands, would become Acting President until, somehow, the deadlock was broken!

Reality: If Biden Wins Florida, He Only Needs To Win One More Trump State Of 2016!

The odds of Donald Trump being able to pull out a win in November is very poor, particularly if Florida, third in electoral votes with 29, goes to Joe Biden.

The Democratic states of 2016 all seem solid for Joe Biden, although the Republicans are trying to win New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada and New Mexico, but the odds are very long against that occurring.

With Florida being won by Biden, all that the Democratic Presidential nominee needs to hit the 270 mark is win one of the following:

Pennsylvania 20 electoral votes

Michigan 16 electoral votes

Wisconsin 10 electoral votes

North Carolina 15 electoral votes

Arizona 11 electoral votes

Ohio 18 electoral votes

Georgia 16 electoral votes

Right now, in public opinion polls, Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all but the last two states, and one must remember that in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump only won by a combination of 78,000 votes combined in 2016!

Florida is prime territory for Democrats, with the growing Puerto Rican population, enhanced by the hurricane which hit that island in 2017, and by senior citizens notably turning against Donald Trump in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic. Since Trump did not win by very much in Florida in 2016, and with the enhanced Democratic campaign that will be mounted in Florida, the likelihood of Florida going Democratic, along with at least one of the above seven states is, seemingly, not all that difficult.

Also, Florida could end up trending “Blue” on Election Night, throwing the plot of Trump to declare victory that evening out of possibility.

It would be fitting and ironic that the state that Donald Trump has now made his official residence could put the nail in the coffin of Donald Trump staying on as President!

Joe Biden Should Seek To Win Strongly “Red” States, To Promote Democratic Strength, And Humiliate Donald Trump!

There is a growing feeling of a Democratic “Tsunami” on the way on November 3, 2020, when the Presidential and Congressional Elections take place across the nation.

Indications are that Joe Biden is working hardest on convincing voters to support him in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three “swing” states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins.

If those three states switched from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, then the former Vice President would win the Electoral College.

But since there is no guarantee, it is important for Biden to work hard to win Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona as well, to allow for any slippage in the three states lost by Clinton by small numbers. So a lot of effort is going into winning those three states listed, as Biden is now comfortably ahead in all three, along with the other three.

If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona it will be a massive victory, which is almost certain to insure that the Senate would go Democratic by more than the three minimum victories needed. And the House of Representatives would add to the Democratic margin gained in the midterm elections of 2018.

But the argument is why not also go for states that seem long shots–Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa, all of which would make Joe Biden a landslide winner by far?

And even further, why not try to win Kansas and Montana?

So if things go well, the Democrats could have the most massive victory for the Presidency since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and could be a sign of a Democratic majority that would be long lasting!

The total humiliation of Donald Trump would be a wonderful event to witness!

Donald Trump Trying To Suppress The Right To Vote, Unprecedented Since The Voting Rights Act Of 1965

Donald Trump knows he will lose the upcoming Presidential Election of 2020 massively, and is trying to stop people from voting, endangering them with his demand that they must vote in person, not by mail in voting, even though many Americans already use that method, including Donald Trump himself!

He is threatening lawsuits and denial of financial support to Michigan and Nevada, because he knows they are states he must win, but he will not win either, no matter what he does to suppress the vote.

Voting is the most basic right, and this is the first President openly trying to interfere with the right to vote, guaranteed under Amendments 15, 19 and 26, along with the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Right now, Joe Biden leads massively among women, senior citizens, and people of color, and is ahead in some polls by 11 points.

The majority think Biden would do better on health care and the CoronaVirus Pandemic.

Every day, by his refusal to deal with the loss of life, and claiming he has made no mistakes, Donald Trump is just solidifying his sound defeat in November!

50 Years Since Kent State Massacre, And Now Open Carrying Of Firearms On Government Property In Michigan–Both Outrageous!

Yesterday, May 4, was the 50th anniversary of the horrific massacre at Kent State University in Ohio, where the National Guard fired live ammunition at anti Vietnam War demonstrators, killing 4 and wounding 10 students.

Many of the victims had not even been engaged in the rock throwing demonstration, but there has never been any justification for using live ammunition against students.

The Ohio Governor, James Rhodes, and the individual National Guardsmen were never held accountable legally.

Now, we have a situation in which gun toting Trumpites stormed the Michigan Legislature to protest the lockdown ordered by Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, in reaction to the CoronaVirus Pandemic, which is still surging in that state.

Apparently, it is legal for people in Michigan to come into government buildings with firearms, and that should be changed.

Are we going to allow hoodlums to invade government buildings and terrorize government officials doing their duty to protect citizens from a pandemic?

Rightfully, the law enforcement authorities should have prevented the invasion, and ordered everyone out, and if they did not comply , then use force against those who have firearms.

One can be certain that if the gun toting terrorists had been African American or Latino, they would likely have been shot dead.

This is another example of the ongoing racism going on in America, and the growth of Fascist Trumpite followers, who endanger public safety!

The Potential Of Justin Amash To “Mess Up” The 2020 Presidential Election Is High

Michigan Congressman Justin Amash, elected as a Tea Party Congressman in the Republican “wave” of 2010, went on to a ten year career, including heading the “Liberty Caucus” and being a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, an extreme right wing group that warred against Speaker John Boehner and his successor, Paul Ryan.

Amash went on to vote for the impeachment of Donald Trump in 2019, and to leave the Republican Party, and now he is an announced candidate for the Libertarian Party Presidential nomination.

Considering that Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee received about 3.3 percent of the popular vote and 4.5 million votes in 2016, it is a concern whether Amash could perform at the same level in 2020, and whether it would harm Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the election.

Amash is complicated, as he supports the following that could bring over disaffected Democrats who wanted Bernie Sanders:

He voted against religious institutions being eligible for FEMA grants.

He supported gay marriage being left alone after the Supreme Court ruled in favor in 2015.

He has stated his opposition to political gerrymandering.

He voted against the reauthorization of the Patriot Act in 2011.

He voted against the Trump executive order banning migrating of people from seven majority Muslim nations.

He has stated his support of transgender American rights.

He has opposed building a Mexico Wall.

He has refused to support Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) without agreement that there have been abuses that need to be addressed, while believing in the basic mission of ICE.

He has opposed US support of Saudi Arabia in its war against Yemen.

He has voted against any war against Iran by executive decision, only if Congress agreed by majority vote of both houses of Congress.

And of course, he has been a consistent critic of Donald Trump from the beginning.

So, while Amash is a big Trump critic, he could get disaffected Democrats who are not thrilled with Joe Biden, to vote for him, and that could be a decisive factor in his home state of Michigan and other “swing’ states!

Trumpites Put Profit Above Life With Actions In Michigan And Kentucky, And At Houses Of Worship

It is now clear that Trumpites put profit above life, as shown by their marches and demonstrations in Michigan, Kentucky, and threatened actions in North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, protesting the shutdowns ordered by those states’ Democratic governors and Ohio’s Republican Governor.

A number of Christian houses of worship, run by pastors who are always looking for adulation and money, also have endangered their clueless, gullible congregants by holding Easter Sunday services, and denouncing what they call interference with freedom of religion. That was not the purpose of the states’ governors who worry about the spread of the CoronaVirus.

It is essential for the Democratic governors, along with the intelligent, sensible Republican governors of states, including Massachusetts, Maryland, and Ohio, to hold fast and not give in to pressure to reopen society at a delicate time as now!