Michigan

Tonight’s South Carolina Democratic Presidential Debate A Turning Point

It is clear that Tuesday night’s CBS South Carolina Democratic Presidential debate is a turning point, as Senator Bernie Sanders will have the tremendous advantage if he wins the South Carolina Primary this Saturday.

Sanders is self destructing, however, with his inability to stop praising Cuba under Fidel Castro, and the Chinese government of President Xi Jinping, ignoring their violations of human rights, while improving education and health care.

Sanders seems totally deaf to warnings that he must repudiate his past extreme leftist views on Nicaragua and the Soviet Union in the 1980s, as that is a guarantee to cause the loss of Florida at the least, and likely cause the industrial Midwest and the Southwest to run away from his candidacy, if he is the Democratic nominee for President.

How Sanders could win states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, is impossible to conceive.

Also, any hope of winning Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and come within striking distance of Texas, would be totally gone with a Sanders Presidential candidacy.

And Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada could be in danger, as well as New Hampshire and Virginia, all won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

And this is without addressing the “democratic Socialism” label that Sanders embraces, and his unwillingness to fully explain how all of his ambitious programs, which sound great on paper, could possibly be achieved through Congressional action.

The importance of the federal judiciary and the Supreme Court is at stake, and the nation cannot afford more right wing judges and Justices if Donald Trump is reelected.

Hopefully, we will see moderates unite around one candidate to oppose Sanders after Super Tuesday next week, with the best bet now seeming to be Pete Buttigieg, unless Joe Biden has a major rehabilitation by voters in South Carolina and the 14 states of Super Tuesday.

New Hampshire Primary: Moderates Dominate, And Joe Biden And Elizabeth Warren In Free Fall

The New Hampshire Primary results are in, and the winners are Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, who together won 44 percent of the vote, compared to Bernie Sanders winning 25.7 percent, only about 3,700 votes ahead of Buttigieg, who had 24.4 percent of the vote on his own.

Even if you add Elizabeth Warren’s poor showing, 9.2 percent of the vote to Sanders’ total, the moderates clearly won, even not including Joe Biden’s embarrassing 5th place finish, with 8.4 percent of the vote.

It is clear that both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are in free fall, and if they do not do well in Nevada and South Carolina, and on Super Tuesday on March 3, they are done as candidates, and it is likely down to Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and the likelihood that Michael Bloomberg may do well on Super Tuesday, after spending about $300 million on advertising so far.

Tom Steyer, Deval Patrick, and Tulsi Gabbard remain technically in the race, which is down to just nine candidates, after Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet withdrew last night.

No one thought that Buttigieg and Klobuchar would get this far as survivors, and the sense is that one or the other, or both as a team, might very well be the Democratic ticket for 2020, two Midwestern candidates, who could, in theory, accomplish what Hillary Clinton could not do in 2016, win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and potentially, even Ohio and Iowa, enough to win the White House!

Major Changes In Electoral College Coming After Census Figures In 2020, And Reapportionment Of Seats In House Of Representatives In 2022 And After

The Electoral College and Congressional Representation in the House of Representatives will change dramatically, after the Census of 2020 leads to seven states gaining electoral votes and Congressional seats, while ten states will lose electoral votes and Congressional seats starting in 2022 for the lower house of Congress, and for the Electoral College in 2024 and 2028.

The big winners will be Texas and Florida, gaining 3 and 2 seats and 3 and 2 electoral votes. Also gaining one seat and one electoral vote will be Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, Montana, and North Carolina.

The ten states that will lose one seat each and one electoral vote are:

California (first time ever)

New York

Pennsylvania

Illinois

Ohio

Michigan

Minnesota

Rhode Island

West Virginia

Alabama

Rhode Island will now only have a Representative at Large, and Montana, which had gone in recent decades from one to two to one member of the House will again have 2 seats in the lower chamber of Congress.

The “Rust Belt” continues to lose in the Northeast and Midwest, while the South and the West, generally called the “Sun Belt”, continues to gain seats and power, although California losing is a surprise. They will still have 52 (instead of 53) House seats and 54 (instead of 55) electoral votes in the 2020s.

New York has lost for seven decades in House seats and electoral votes, from a high of 45 and 47 in the 1930s and 1940s to 26 and 28 in the 2020s. while Florida in the same period has grown from 8 and 10 in the 1950s to 29 and 31 in the 2020s!

Hints That Texas Might Go Against Trump, And If So, Transforming The Presidential Election Of 2020

It is ten months to the Presidential election on November 3, as the year 2020 begins.

There are strong hints that President Donald Trump is facing strong opposition in the Lone Star state of Texas in his reelection bid, and if he loses Texas in the Electoral College next fall, he is done, as there would be no way to overcome the loss of the second largest state in that vote count.

With 38 electoral votes in 2020, and likely 41 in 2024, Texas is the biggest catch for the future for the Democratic Party, but it really seems possible that it could go “Blue” this year.

If so, then the Democrats do not need the Midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin as much as they need them if Texas stays Republican.

One can be sure that there will be major campaigning and financial efforts to switch Texas in 2020 to the Democratic Presidential nominee!

16 Months To Election: 15 States In Contention In Electoral College

With 16 months until the Presidential Election of 2020, the election is settled in 35 states, and the remaining 15 states are in contention, and will decide the Electoral College and the winner of the Presidency.

8 states were Republican last time, but are, in theory, in contention:

Arizona

Florida

Georgia

Michigan

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Texas

Wisconsin

Additionally, Nebraska is Republican, but allows split electoral votes since 1992, and in 2008, Barack Obama won the 2nd District electoral vote, so in theory, that district, including Omaha and its suburbs, is in contention.

The Democrats won 5 states that are, in theory, in contention:

Colorado

Minnesota

Nevada

New Hampshire

Virginia.

Additionally, Maine is Democratic, but allows split electoral votes since 1972, and Donald Trump won the 2nd District electoral vote, so in theory, that district, including most of the state away from Portland, Augusta and nearby coastal areas, is in contention.

So both Nebraska and Maine have the potential to see one electoral vote go to the loser of the state, in the statewide race.

If the Hispanic-Latino vote can be magnified for the Democrats, it gives them the chance to win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

The close Democratic majorities in their five states in contention—Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia—give the Republicans the opportunity to pick up electoral votes there.

It seems clear at this time that when and if the Hispanic-Latino vote increases enough for the Democrats, likely by 2024 and 2028, and with increased electoral votes in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas assured after the 2020 Census, then the Democrats could have a lock on the Presidency for the long term, even if the Midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin become more Republican, and even if Minnesota and Virginia were to become more competitive for the Republicans. And Colorado and Nevada, with increased Hispanic-Latino influence over the next decade, would be more assuredly Democratic as well.

Even Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nebraska would matter far less, as well as Ohio, which now looks out of contention for the Democrats at present.

Michigan Congressman Justin Amash The Only Elected Republican Willing To Stand Up To Donald Trump On Obstruction Of Justice

Michigan Republican Congressman Justin Amash is not someone who progressives would admire, but on the issue of Donald Trump and impeachment, he is the only Congressional Republican willing to stick his neck out, and call for the impeachment of the President for Obstruction of Justice.

Amash is a right wing Republican who has served since 2011, and is one of the most conservative members of Congress, with libertarian beliefs, and a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus and a founder and Chair of the Liberty Caucus in that legislative body. He was an original Tea Party activist in 2009-2010 after Barack Obama became President.

His parents are Palestinian and Syrian Christians, so he is of Arab descent, and he represents western Michigan, including Grand Rapids, the area of Michigan represented by Gerald Ford for 25 years before he became Vice President and President.

He has been a critic of Trump from the beginning, and refused to endorse him, and now House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has repudiated him, claiming he votes with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi more than with his party, which is purely a lie.

Amash has voted against funding for the border wall; has been critical of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement); voted against the Muslim Ban from seven nations promoted by Donald Trump in 2017; opposed renewal of the Patriot Act in 2011 and and is a critic of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act; has served on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform; and believes in Congress having the final say in the commitment of troops to combat overseas.

It seems as if he is a man without a party now, and it is rumored that he might run for the Libertarian Party Presidential nomination in 2020, which if he does, he could help affect the election and help to cause the defeat of Donald Trump, which would be true justice!

Donald Trump’s Greatest Nightmare: Joe Biden, Who Can Take The Midwest And Pennsylvania Away From Him In 2020

It is very clear, a week into former Vice President Joe Biden’s Presidential campaign, that he has alarmed President Donald Trump, who clearly sees him as the most dangerous threat to a potential second term.

We know that because Trump is on a crazed Twitter rant on a daily basis against Biden, and for good reason.

Joe Biden is the closest to an “average guy” who has run for President, and served in high office as a Senator and Vice President.

He has always been seen as one of the “poorest” public officials, as he has few assets, other than his salary and pension; his wife’s teaching job at a community college; their home in Delaware; and whatever he has gained from his book publishing and lectures, nowhere near the level of the Clintons, or the Obamas, by any means.

Joe Biden came from a lower middle class background in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and has always been seen as a person who truly related to the white working class of Pennsylvania, and the Midwest, and to those without a college education,and his capacity for empathy and sincerity and concern for average Americans has always resonated as true and genuine.

This does not mean that others, who had struggles, such as Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, and Julian Castro do not also have empathy and sincerity and concern for average Americans. They most certainly do, but there is something about Joe Biden, with all of his faults and shortcomings, which all of the above have, that makes him seen in polls and generally as the most dangerous barrier to a second Donald Trump term in the Presidency.

Many have felt that if Joe Biden had somehow run in 2016, that he might have been able to overcome Hillary Clinton, win the nomination, and win the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio, and would have taken the Presidency, and saved the nation from the nightmare of Donald Trump.

Democratic “Blue Wave” Victory Much Greater Than Had Been Imagined Possible

It is now evident that the Midterm Elections of 2018 were a revolution in many respects, a true “Blue Wave.”

We now know that 8.8 million more people voted Democratic than Republicans, the widest margin in American history, more than any other midterm election in modern times.

We now know that the Democrats gained 39 seats, and one more possible, in the House of Representatives, greater than anyone could have envisioned, meaning they will have 234 or 235 seats to the Republicans 200 or 201.

We now know that white suburbia, women, younger voters, independents, and racial and ethnic minorities all went over to the Democratic camp by wide margins.

We know know that seven more states have Democratic Governorships, and that such despicable people as Scott Walker, Kris Kobach, David Brat, and all of the Orange County Republican House members (Reagan Country) lost their races to Democrats.

We know that now Arizona and Nevada, along with Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania seem more likely to go Blue in 2020.

However, we also know that Democrats and progressives lost in Florida, Georgia, and in the Texas Senate race, and that seats were lost in the Senate in Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota.

Overall, with some disappointments, a great result, and optimism about 2020.

Two Potential Democratic Presidential Contenders For 2020 From The Midwest: Sherrod Brown And Amy Klobuchar

The importance of the Midwest in presidential elections has always been something to realize, and ever more so after Hillary Clinton lost Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa in 2016.

Many think had she chosen Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, then she might have won those states, along with Pennsylvania, enough to swing the Electoral College.

So, therefore, much attention is being paid to two Midwestern Democratic Senators, both easily reelected in the Midterm Elections of 2018, as potential Democratic Presidential nominees.

One is the same Sherrod Brown, who never thought of himself as a future President, but is now seriously thinking about it. He is giving interviews where he makes clear that he is seriously considering a run for the White House, and is seen as someone that should not be ignored as a serious candidate if he runs.

Brown has been a member of the Senate for 12 years, and before that, of the House of Representatives for 14 years, after having served as Ohio Secretary of State for eight years, and in the Ohio legislature for eight years before that.

He is an unabashed liberal who has had appeal for the working class, something many Democrats have had trouble with, although Joe Biden has been of similar vein. Brown would be 68 in 2020, a full decade younger than Joe Biden, and Ohio has been a crucial state in presidential elections, with six Ohioans elected President between 1868 and 1923, and Ohio being a state every elected Republican President has won from Abraham Lincoln through Donald Trump.

Also reelected to a third term in the Senate is Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, a inheritor of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor tradition of Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, Walter Mondale, and Paul Wellstone. Klobuchar was Hennepin County (Minneapolis) Attorney from 1998 to 2006,and gained a reputation as a tough prosecutor, before her election to the Senate. She has sponsored or cosponsored 98 pieces of legislation, more than any other Senator. She is seen as bipartisan, able to work “across the aisle”, and has a good public image, but not as controversial as Elizabeth Warren or Kirsten Gillibrand, other women thought to be likely to announce for President.

This author has particular feelings of support of Klobuchar for the Presidency, and think she has an excellent chance of being the Democratic nominee for President in 2020, and is more likely to gain support of white working class males, more than Warren, Gillibrand, or Kamala Harris of California. She would be 60 years of age at the time of the Presidential Election of 2020.

Both Brown and Klobuchar are solid possibilities for the Presidency, and are from the “heartland”, rather than the Atlantic and Pacific Coastlines.

So when assessing the upcoming Democratic Presidential race, do NOT dismiss Sherrod Brown nor Amy Klobuchar.

Democrats Won Much Bigger Victory Than Thought On Election Night, Could Be Transformative For Long Term

As more seats are flipping in California, at least four of the 14 previously Republican held seats in the House of Representatives, it looks as if the “Blue Wave” is larger than what occurred for the Republicans in 2010 and 1994, and already is the most for Democrats since 1974 after the Richard Nixon resignation, and the highest percentage voting since 1966, when the Republicans gained seats under Lyndon B. Johnson, in the midst of the Vietnam War escalation.

It is now likely that the Democrats will have gained about 40 seats in the House of Representatives, but also significant are the gains of Democrats in the suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia; Dallas, Texas; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and the gaining of a majority of House seats in Arizona.

It is now possible to say that Suburbia has become more likely to leave the Republicans behind long term, and join urban areas against the constant support of the rural areas of many states for the Republicans.

White rural America is fighting the tide toward urban and suburban educated people, women, racial and ethic minorities, young people, and independents who are abandoning the Republican Party.

It is clear that the Trump Republican Party is losing out in the long run, just as occurred in California in the 1990s when Republican Governor Pete Wilson worked to pass discriminatory legislation against Hispanics in the state, with the result being overwhelming Democratic control in the state legislature, in state executive offices, and in Congress, where the monopoly of Democrats has become a flood.

We can now imagine a turn in the next decade of Arizona, Texas, and Georgia toward support of the Democrats in Presidential elections by 2024 and 2028 for sure, and once Texas goes that direction, the Presidency is safe in the hands of Democrats.

Already, the Northeast and New England are Democratic strongholds, and the Midwest now has Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota controlled by Democratic Governors in time for reapportionment of seats after the Census of 2020. And in the Mountain West, we see Democrats doing very well in New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada, and having the first Democratic Senator in Arizona in more than thirty years. The Pacific Coast of California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii are also solid.

So even though Ohio and Florida were not bright spots for the Democrats, the old adage that Ohio matters may not matter, and realize that the Buckeye State had a split personality on Election Day, as Democrat Sherrod Brown won an overwhelming victory, even though Republican Mike Dewine defeated Richard Cordray.

Florida is not yet settled at this writing, as a recount is going on, but it could be that Florida will be seen as an outlier, and despite their being the third largest state in population and electoral votes, if and when Texas goes “blue”, and joins California and New York, it might not matter what happens in Florida.