Illinois

Adam Kinzinger Second Republican Added To January 6 House Committee Investigation By Nancy Pelosi

The House Select Committee on the January 6 US Capitol Insurrection has been greatly improved by the announcement of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi that Illinois Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger has agreed to join the investigation.

Kinzinger, like the other House Republican on the committee, Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming, is a solid conservative who does not support most Democratic Party ideas and values, but they are both, ultimately, patriots who understand that what happened on January 6, 2021 was an attack on the Constitution, American democracy, and the rule of law.

Both Kinzinger and Cheney are strong critics of Donald Trump, and make clear that he has hijacked the Republican Party and the conservative movement, and is a threat to the survival of the Republican Party and the conservative ideology, but both are willing to do what is necessary for the betterment of the nation.

Both have, and will continued to experience, bitter and vicious attacks, and will face tough primaries in the Midterm Congressional elections of 2022, and may lose their seats and even membership on committees as a result.

But they are putting the nation ahead of their own personal interests, and one can wish that they will add a great deal to the investigation of January 6, and help to hold those complicit in that attack on the US Capitol, to the full extent of the law.

Since there would be little chance of the Illinois district of Kinzinger going to the Democrats, and likekly, zero chance of the state of Wyoming At Large Congressional district going Democratic, we can all wish that both Kinzinger and Cheney are successful in retaining their seats in the House of Representatives in November 2022.

Even if that does not happen, they will be well remembered in history as “Profiles in Courage”!

The 2020 US Census Has Surprises, As Announced Today

It is ironic that this author wrote about the 2020 Census yesterday, not aware that precise information would be given out today, Monday.

And there are a few surprises.

The total population of the US is over 331 million people, up from about 309 million in 2010.

Texas will gain only two seats, not three, and Florida will gain one seat, not two.

Colorado, North Carolina, Oregon and Montana will gain one seat each.

Arizona, thought to be likely to gain a seat, will not do so.

New York loses one seat, but only because of a shortage of population by the small total of 89 people!

Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, California, and West Virginia will lose one seat for each state, with California losing representation for the first time ever!

Minnesota and Rhode Island, expected to lose one seat each, avoided such a loss.

So now, with Montana gaining a seat, there will only be 6 states with one statewide House member—Alaska, Delaware, Vermont, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.

This is the second slowest population growth in US history, after the 1930s.

And the trend of the South and West gaining at the expense of the Northeast and Midwest continues as it has for many decades.

When Census Figures Come Out Later This Year, It Will Affect Multiple States

The 2020 Census figures will come out in a few months, and will affect multiple states in Congressional representation in 2022 and beyond, as well as the Electoral College.

A number of the larger populated states will continue to lose representation and electoral votes, as they have faced for several decades.

This includes New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan, but also California is likely to lose a Congressional seat and an electoral vote for the first time ever in America history. Also, West Virginia, Rhode Island and Minnesota are likely to lose a seat and an electoral vote.

The states which will gain include Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, and Montana, with Texas and Florida gaining the most.

Montana will move from one statewide House seat to two, while Rhode Island will move from two seats to one, so Rhode Island will join Vermont, Delaware, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming as the seven states that have only one House member for each state.

Final Projection On Congressional Elections Of 2020

With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.

The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.

Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.

The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.

The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:

Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally

Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner

Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins

Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue

Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines

North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis

Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst

Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall

South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham

Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.

Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!

Ohio, The Buckeye State, May Again Be Instructive On Presidential Election

Ohio, the Buckeye State, may again be instructive on the Presidential Election of 2020, as it has been 45 out of 54 times in the past, and only twice on the losing side since 1900–1944 and 1960!

No Republican President has won the White House without winning Ohio.

Ohio is 34th largest of the 50 states in land area; 10th most densely populated; and seventh most populous; and it has been losing electoral votes steadily over the decades, as the Sun Belt states have grown larger in population.

But it still matters greatly, and recent polls indicate Joe Biden taking a lead in Ohio over Donald Trump.

As I wrote on this blog on September 15, 2018, Ohio historically has been the most predictable state in the Electoral College results, followed by Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico.

If Donald Trump cannot win Ohio, there is no path for him to win the Presidency for a second term in 2020. The public opinion polls as I write, indicate troubles for Trump also in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, so the Midwest heartland is not for him, as things stand now.

Kentucky Has The Two Worst Senators Of Any State!

These days, there are so many Republican Senators who are totally disgraceful, despicable, horrendous, lacking in empathy, humanity, and common decency!

But although many are in this category, it is clear that the worst combination of any state goes to Kentucky, a very poor state, with many poor people, and more who are white than minority, and two Senators who do not give a damn about their own constituents!

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senator Rand Paul share the prize for the most monstrous combination, and it is hoped that McConnell might be defeated in November, at age 77 and 36 years in the Senate!

And if that happens, it would be time to prosecute McConnell for his corrupt actions, and that of his wife, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, as there has been a conflict of interest that McConnell’s wife has been allowed to serve in the Trump Cabinet!

It is outrageous that McConnell is unwilling to offer support for state aid to such states as New York, California, and Illinois, when those states supply a lot of financial aid to Kentucky annually!

And Rand Paul has been a total nightmare, as his libertarianism bent harms his population! Paul even questions the science and medical knowledge of Dr. Anthony Fauci!

It is impossible to explain why Kentuckians do not get the message and vote them out of office, as they clearly do not give a damn about the people of their state!

Major Changes In Electoral College Coming After Census Figures In 2020, And Reapportionment Of Seats In House Of Representatives In 2022 And After

The Electoral College and Congressional Representation in the House of Representatives will change dramatically, after the Census of 2020 leads to seven states gaining electoral votes and Congressional seats, while ten states will lose electoral votes and Congressional seats starting in 2022 for the lower house of Congress, and for the Electoral College in 2024 and 2028.

The big winners will be Texas and Florida, gaining 3 and 2 seats and 3 and 2 electoral votes. Also gaining one seat and one electoral vote will be Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, Montana, and North Carolina.

The ten states that will lose one seat each and one electoral vote are:

California (first time ever)

New York

Pennsylvania

Illinois

Ohio

Michigan

Minnesota

Rhode Island

West Virginia

Alabama

Rhode Island will now only have a Representative at Large, and Montana, which had gone in recent decades from one to two to one member of the House will again have 2 seats in the lower chamber of Congress.

The “Rust Belt” continues to lose in the Northeast and Midwest, while the South and the West, generally called the “Sun Belt”, continues to gain seats and power, although California losing is a surprise. They will still have 52 (instead of 53) House seats and 54 (instead of 55) electoral votes in the 2020s.

New York has lost for seven decades in House seats and electoral votes, from a high of 45 and 47 in the 1930s and 1940s to 26 and 28 in the 2020s. while Florida in the same period has grown from 8 and 10 in the 1950s to 29 and 31 in the 2020s!

Democrats Won Much Bigger Victory Than Thought On Election Night, Could Be Transformative For Long Term

As more seats are flipping in California, at least four of the 14 previously Republican held seats in the House of Representatives, it looks as if the “Blue Wave” is larger than what occurred for the Republicans in 2010 and 1994, and already is the most for Democrats since 1974 after the Richard Nixon resignation, and the highest percentage voting since 1966, when the Republicans gained seats under Lyndon B. Johnson, in the midst of the Vietnam War escalation.

It is now likely that the Democrats will have gained about 40 seats in the House of Representatives, but also significant are the gains of Democrats in the suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia; Dallas, Texas; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and the gaining of a majority of House seats in Arizona.

It is now possible to say that Suburbia has become more likely to leave the Republicans behind long term, and join urban areas against the constant support of the rural areas of many states for the Republicans.

White rural America is fighting the tide toward urban and suburban educated people, women, racial and ethic minorities, young people, and independents who are abandoning the Republican Party.

It is clear that the Trump Republican Party is losing out in the long run, just as occurred in California in the 1990s when Republican Governor Pete Wilson worked to pass discriminatory legislation against Hispanics in the state, with the result being overwhelming Democratic control in the state legislature, in state executive offices, and in Congress, where the monopoly of Democrats has become a flood.

We can now imagine a turn in the next decade of Arizona, Texas, and Georgia toward support of the Democrats in Presidential elections by 2024 and 2028 for sure, and once Texas goes that direction, the Presidency is safe in the hands of Democrats.

Already, the Northeast and New England are Democratic strongholds, and the Midwest now has Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota controlled by Democratic Governors in time for reapportionment of seats after the Census of 2020. And in the Mountain West, we see Democrats doing very well in New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada, and having the first Democratic Senator in Arizona in more than thirty years. The Pacific Coast of California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii are also solid.

So even though Ohio and Florida were not bright spots for the Democrats, the old adage that Ohio matters may not matter, and realize that the Buckeye State had a split personality on Election Day, as Democrat Sherrod Brown won an overwhelming victory, even though Republican Mike Dewine defeated Richard Cordray.

Florida is not yet settled at this writing, as a recount is going on, but it could be that Florida will be seen as an outlier, and despite their being the third largest state in population and electoral votes, if and when Texas goes “blue”, and joins California and New York, it might not matter what happens in Florida.

Final Projection On The 2018 Midterm Elections: Democratic House And Senate, And Massive Gain In Democratic Governors

The time has come, the day before the Midterm Elections of 2018, to come up with a final projection on the results.

The sense is that the Democrats are in better shape than many polls indicate, although it might be seen by many as fanciful thinking on my part.

But I sense that the Democrats will do very well on Tuesday, as the first time, other than special elections, to register the people’s view on Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

Yes, there is the loyal base, but that is below 40 percent of the nation.

It seems clear that Independents, Suburban men and women, millennials of both genders, African Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans, the Jewish community, and Social Justice Catholics are united in their disgust at the behavior, policies, and corruption of Donald Trump and his administration.

The American people are a good people overall, and one must remember that Donald Trump lost the popular vote massively, but now all that matters is winning more votes than any opponent, and in that regard, Trump and the Republicans who refused to take a stand against him, are on the way to a massive repudiation by the voters.

That does not mean that every nasty Republican will lose or every Democrat that many would wish elected will be successful.

And it could be that, as in 2016, this blogger and author could be way off in his assessment, and I am prepared for that, as much as one can be.

But my inner being tells me the following:

There are so many Republican seats in play in the House of Representatives, including those that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, that one has to believe that many are turning Democratic in this election—including in upstate New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, and California. So expect that while in theory there could be as many as maybe 71 or as few as 15 gains by the Democrats, my feeling is that a safe number is 40-45 seats, which if 45, would make for about 240 Democrats to 195 Republicans, basically a switch from what it is now.

In the US Senate, the Democrats would have to win a net gain of two seats, which now seems attainable. This blogger senses a gain of four Republican seats—Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and even Texas with Beto O’Rourke, but with a loss of two seats, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Joe Donnelly in Indiana. But that means Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Bill Nelson in Florida would retain their seats, as all three are tough political leaders. So if this all happened, a bit of a miracle, there would be 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, so the Democrats would control and organize the Senate. This prognosis also means the three leading politicians who this author has placed on his “Dream List” of those he wanted defeated, would be—-Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, and Marsha Blackburn.

As far as Governorships, the Democrats have 16 right now, and my projection is that they would gain the Midwest states of Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Kansas, along with Southern states Florida and Georgia, along with New Mexico, Nevada, and New England states Maine and Vermont, giving them a total of 28 states under Democratic control. This also means that Scott Walker and Kris Kobach would not be elected in Wisconsin and Kansas, making my “Dream List” fulfilled for the first five on the list.

On the other hand, it is likely that Steve King will win in Iowa for his Congressional seat, although this blogger believes David Brat in his Richmond, Virginia Congressional seat, will lose.

So overall, all but Steve King on my “Dream List” to defeat would lose, while all five of my “Dream List” to win—Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams, Richard Cordray, and Gavin Newsom, would be triumphant.

This blogger and author may look silly two or three days from now, but that is my final projection, and we shall see!

Midwest Governorships (Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa) All May Go Democratic In 2018, Affecting Future Reapportionment In States And Congress

With six days to go to the Midterm Elections of 2018, it seems more likely than not that the crucial area of the Midwest will see a tidal wave of Democratic Governorships.

Minnesota is already Democratic controlled in the Governorship, and will likely remain so.

The states of Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa all are tending Democratic, with a victory over Scott Walker in Wisconsin the most heralded election of them all, if it occurs.

If all or most of these states go Democratic in the Governorship races, reapportionment of the state legislatures and the US House of Representatives after the 2020 Census will be under control of Democrats, unlike what happened in 2010 after the last census.

Such victories by Democrats could also have an impact on the Presidential Election of 2020, as it would boost the chances of the leading Midwesterner who might seek the White House, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, part of the tradition of Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, Walter Mondale, and Paul Wellstone. Being from a state that borders on Iowa and its first in the nation caucuses in 2020 is an advantage for Klobuchar.

Another possible gainer would be Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, and both Klobuchar and Brown would have an edge on gaining the white working class support in their section that fell short for Hillary Clinton, and helped Donald Trump to win the Electoral College in 2016.

So watching the Midwest this next Tuesday night and Wednesday will be a center of attention, and also include Congressional districts that are likely to flip Democratic in these states.