Florida

Joe Biden On Road To Presidency, But Without Democratic Senate, A Major Handicap For Success!

Joe Biden is on his way to the Presidency, but sadly, he will not have a Democratic Senate, as the situation now stands.

So this is a major handicap for success of a Biden Presidency.

Mitch McConnell won reelection, and seems almost certain to remain Senate Majority Leader, unless both Georgia seats up for election, not likely to be decided until January, go to the Democrats, which seems highly unlikely! Also still up in the air is Alaska and North Carolina, but it does not look good for the Democrats at this writing, and Michigan Democrat Gary Peters is losing his race at the moment.

Donald Trump will mount legal challenges, but it seems certain that Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the United States, although not under the hoped for landslide that did not develop, as Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas went to the Republicans, leaving Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina still in play in the Electoral College, along with Nevada still not final for Biden at this point. But happily, Arizona and Wisconsin switched from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020!

Biden could gain 270 electoral votes in the next day or two, if and when Nevada, Michigan and Georgia put him over the top! And Pennsylvania and North Carolina are still possible!

Final Projection On Congressional Elections Of 2020

With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.

The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.

Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.

The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.

The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:

Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally

Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner

Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins

Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue

Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines

North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis

Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst

Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall

South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham

Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.

Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!

Democrats Gaining In Southeast And Southwest, Likely Transforming American Politics In The 2020s

Indications are that Democrats are starting to gain support in both the Southeast (North Carolina, Georgia) and the Southwest (Arizona), and are running even in Florida and Texas, and keeping their lead in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

If this trend continues, the Midwest Rust Belt states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania), while still important, will be less significant in future Presidential elections.

And it looks as if many of the Senate seats that are being decided this November will end up with a Democratic Senator–as in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.

The electoral map in future elections will be vastly different than it has been in previous election rounds.

Cuban Americans Are Distinctly Republican, But Competition For The Vote Of Other Latinos Is Strongly Democratic

It is well known that the majority of Cuban Americans have been conservative and supporters of the Republican Party, since the first migration of Cubans to South Florida in 1959, and particularly after the failed Bay of Pigs fiasco under President John F. Kennedy in 1961.

And yet, younger Cubans are much more Democratic, as this scholar and professor discovered in his classes over the years.

Still, the effect of Fidel Castro and his brother Raul Castro permeate the strong anti Communism of Cuban Americans in Florida, New Jersey, New York and California, major centers of Cuban Americans. But Cubans are only about 4 percent of all Latino Americans.

Other Latino Americans still tend to be strongly Democratic, so it is expected Joe Biden will win the vast majority of Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, and other Latino groups from Latin America, with the one exception of Venezuelans.

Florida will be more complex because of the strength of the Cuban vote in South Florida, but the growing Puerto Rican presence, especially in central Florida in the last few years, makes it a real competition for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Elsewhere, the Mexican American vote, and population (which is two thirds of all Latinos in America), makes it likely that Arizona may turn “Blue” and that Texas will be much more competitive than ever in the past thirty years. And Georgia and North Carolina also will be tight races due to Latinos.

Already, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado are strongly Democratic.

So the battle for the Latino vote is very much to be noticed in this upcoming Presidential election, and in Senate and House races.

Nebraska District 2 And Maine District 2 Could Decide Presidential Election Of 2020? Really? Yes!

Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that allow a split electoral vote, with Nebraska having 5 electoral votes and Maine having 4 electoral votes.

But in 2008, Barack Obama won one electoral vote in Nebraska, while the state majority went Republican.

And in 2016, Donald Trump won one electoral vote in Maine, while the state majority went Democratic.

Assuming Joe Biden won back just two Trump states from 2016–Pennsylvania and Michigan, but failed to win back Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, other Obama states in 2012 lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the following possible scenarios could occur!

We would go from 306 for Trump and subtract 20 for Pennsylvania and 16 for Michigan, and Biden would win with exactly 270 electoral votes!

But if the one Maine district stayed with Trump, the electoral vote would be a tie, 269-269, and the House of Representatives would choose the President, as they did in 1800 and 1824, with each state having one vote based on the majority of either party holding Congressional seats in each state.

But the 269-269 vote could be overcome if the one Nebraska district switched to support of Biden, as it did for Obama in 2008, and Biden would have 270 electoral votes!

Right now 26 states have Republican majority delegations, but that could change, if the Democrats were able to win two more states with a majority delegation of their party.

Of course, seven states only have one House member, so that person alone determines the state vote in those seven states.

Also, if we ended up with 25 states having a Republican and 25 having Democratic majority delegations, then there would be a massive constitutional crisis with the tie that would exist!

We could have Inauguration Day approach, and no certainty that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be declared the winner.

So then, Nancy Pelosi, assuming the House of Representatives stayed in Democratic hands, would become Acting President until, somehow, the deadlock was broken!

46 Years Since Richard Nixon Resigned, And Nation Would Benefit If Donald Trump Did The Same, But He Is No Richard Nixon!

In 1974, on this day, August 9, the 37th President of the United States resigned from office, succeeded by Gerald Ford.

That was a great day, as a lawless, corrupt President, Richard Nixon, pressured by Republican leaders in both houses of Congress, willingly left, still a believer that he had been wronged, but ending a constitutional crisis, and giving us a President, Gerald Ford, who was certainly not without faults. But Ford was far better than the horror if Vice President Spiro Agnew had not been discovered for his corruption and forced to resign in October 1973, as Agnew would have been even worse than Nixon, so America was saved.

Now we have a President, even more lawless and corrupt than Richard Nixon, a willing accomplice of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, a scenario that never would have crossed the mind of Richard Nixon. Donald Trump is working to destroy our whole constitutional system of government, and manipulates and distorts and lies, willing to do anything to gain absolute power by being reelected this November.

Richard Nixon had real accomplishments, despite his evil nature, and some of his greatest accomplishments are being destroyed by Donald Trump, who wishes to undo all good done under both Democratic and Republican Presidents in the ninety years since Franklin D. Roosevelt came to the Presidency during the First Great Depression.

Now, Donald Trump is presiding over a Second Great Depression, even more heartless and lacking in empathy or concern than Herbert Hoover.

And his Vice President, Mike Pence, is a religious extremist, with no principles, and hoping to impose his and his wife’s evil, narrow minded views about women’s rights and gay rights upon the nation in the future. He wishes to promote the extreme right wing views of disgraceful hypocrites, such as Franklin Graham, Jerry Falwell, Jr, Ralph Reed, Tony Perkins, and others who want a theocracy in America.

So on the 46th anniversary of Richard Nixon’s resignation, the nation is faced with a crisis that may become worse, with the US Postal Service being politically manipulated to attempt to undermine mail voting. This is occurring in a time of a massive CoronaVirus Pandemic that the government on the national level and in many Republican states, including my resident state of Florida, are failing to deal with. This is creating an even greater health crisis that makes America the embarrassment of the entire world community!

The Battle For The Republican Future After Trump

The Republican Party seems likely to collapse in the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2020, suffering their worst defeat since 1964.

Just as the party collapsed in 1912, and again in 1964, now in 2020, four years late–that is, 56 years, not 52 years—a major regeneration of the party in Congress and the competition for the Presidency seems likely.

It looks right now as if the Democrats will win a lot more than the three to four seats needed to win the majority in the Senate, and that the Republicans will lose another minimum ten seats in the House of Representatives, after losing 42 seats in the 2018 midterm Congressional elections.

And the issue arises, who in the party has a likelihood of competing for President in 2024, with of course, always the possibility someone not yet elected or noticed will enter the fray if successful in this upcoming election.

Youth seems likely to triumph, and there are people in the Senate who can be seen as rivals for the future nomination for President, as well as some not in the Senate.

In the Senate, we have some “old timers”, meaning those who have already run for President, including Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Marco Rubio of Florida. All of them are quite horrific as thoughts as future Presidents, particularly the first two, but really, all three.

Then, we have three others, who clearly, plan to run for President—Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Ben Sasse of Nebraska—and all but Sasse are seen as equally totally horrific.

We also have Nikki Haley, former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor, and for awhile, thought to be “somewhat appealing”, but no more, after her recent total loyalty to Donald Trump, and the halo she once had is gone.

We also have the horror of the possibility of Donald Trump Jr. or Ivanka Trump considering a run!

And we have the disgrace of Florida Senator Rick Scott, who should have been in federal prison for Medicare-Medicaid fraud from years ago, and instead went on to two terms as Florida Governor, and now Florida Senator, winning all three races by about one percent, and all three races very suspect as to vote total manipulation. Just looking at him is enough to make one vomit!

And if one looks to have regular vomiting, think of the disgrace of Fox News Channel’s Tucker Carlson, a true Know Nothing moron, with no ethical or moral compass at all!

Then, there is also Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, who both have handled the CoronaVirus Pandemic responsibly, and are perceived as moderates.

And another Governor, who has handled the crisis horribly, Ron DeSantis of Florida, will probably be angling as well for the Presidency, and makes a Floridian like myself disgusted as to the three state wide office holders in the third largest state, being as obnoxious as Rubio, Scott, and DeSantis!

Of course, if Trump is reelected, Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo might also enter the race, but it is assumed for this article that Trump will lose!

As an “outsider”, a progressive such as myself, if asked, who could one imagine “accepting” as a future President, and with this progressive hiding his eyes behind a total mask, it would have to be Ben Sasse, Larry Hogan, or Charlie Baker, as the rest of the group totally sickens me.

Likely, one of these sixteen will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024, and the odds will be against Sasse, Hogan or Baker, realistically!

The “Red State” Governors Presiding Over Major Disaster Because Of Refusal To Enforce Mask And Other Limits: The Downfall Of Trump Strongholds!

What began as a primarily “Blue State” health crisis has now hit Southern and Western states, what are known as “Red States”, as hard, and in many cases, harder than New York and New Jersey and other states that vote Democratic.

The governors of these states, particularly Brian Kemp of Georgia, Ron DeSantis of Florida, Greg Abbott of Texas, and Doug Ducey of Arizona, can be blamed for this by their lax policies on dealing with the CoronaVirus Pandemic.

This is specifically the issue of face masks being mandated, and since they have not been, the disease has spread like wildfire, causing mass loss of life, and alarming increases in cases.

Donald Trump’s refusal to set a national standard is also causing this crisis, which will destroy the Trump reelection bid, but he has refused, as them, to promote a unified approach.

Donald Trump strongholds will see many Trump supporters dying, but sadly, also those who hate Trump and the Republican Party.

But the Republican Party will pay the price in the fall and in the future, as it now seems possible Trump will lose all of these four states, and also Senate and House seats.

People suffering and dying is not a winning strategy for the Republican Party, which could now be called the Party of Death, not of Life!

Joe Biden Should Seek To Win Strongly “Red” States, To Promote Democratic Strength, And Humiliate Donald Trump!

There is a growing feeling of a Democratic “Tsunami” on the way on November 3, 2020, when the Presidential and Congressional Elections take place across the nation.

Indications are that Joe Biden is working hardest on convincing voters to support him in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three “swing” states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins.

If those three states switched from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, then the former Vice President would win the Electoral College.

But since there is no guarantee, it is important for Biden to work hard to win Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona as well, to allow for any slippage in the three states lost by Clinton by small numbers. So a lot of effort is going into winning those three states listed, as Biden is now comfortably ahead in all three, along with the other three.

If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona it will be a massive victory, which is almost certain to insure that the Senate would go Democratic by more than the three minimum victories needed. And the House of Representatives would add to the Democratic margin gained in the midterm elections of 2018.

But the argument is why not also go for states that seem long shots–Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa, all of which would make Joe Biden a landslide winner by far?

And even further, why not try to win Kansas and Montana?

So if things go well, the Democrats could have the most massive victory for the Presidency since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and could be a sign of a Democratic majority that would be long lasting!

The total humiliation of Donald Trump would be a wonderful event to witness!

Pandemic Now Affecting Sun Belt “Red” States, Not “Blue” States, And Yet Trump Ignores It And Refuses To Wear Face Mask As Example To Americans!

The COVID-19 Pandemic is raging in the Sun Belt, more furious than ever, the so called “Red” states, including Florida, Texas, and Arizona, while before it was more manifested in the Northeast and the Pacific Coast, so called “Blue” states.

But Donald Trump is ignoring the pandemic, which has killed 125,000 Americans in four months, more than World War I, or more than Vietnam and Korea combined!

He continues to refuse to set an example of the importance of wearing a face mask, and has, in a grievous manner, held political rallies in Oklahoma, Arizona and Wisconsin, and intends to do more such rallies, and is exposing thousands to the potential of spreading the virus.

This includes dozens of Secret Service agents, which demonstrates his lack of respect even for those who protect him!

Donald Trump is a total failure in this crisis, and will go down as responding worse than even Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression or James Buchanan in the pre Civil War years!