“Swing States”

Donald Trump Fading Fast In Public Opinion Polls

Ronald 8 Comments

Donald Trump’s Presidential campaign is imploding very rapidly.

At this time, every public opinion poll indicates that Hillary Clinton is far ahead nationally, and that every one of the 18 “Blue” states is strongly “Blue”, and that the “Swing” states are also clearly in that direction.

Additionally, many “Red” states, reliably Republican, suddenly are not so reliable, and might possibly go “Blue”, including North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, Arizona, Utah, and even Texas.

If that happens, Hillary Clinton would have a massive landslide with close to or over 400 electoral votes.

It is too early to relax, however, as a lot can change over 12 weeks, but the signs are very positive.

This has been accomplished despite Hillary Clinton’s having high levels of distrust and suspicion, mostly connected to her Email problems while at the State Department

Imagine if she did not have that issue, and was doing better on personal traits in public opinion polls.

The Rapidly Growing Population Of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Texas Bode Well For Democrats By The 2020 Presidential Election!

Ronald 12 Comments

Four states are rapidly growing in population, according to the Census Bureau, and all four, while “Red” states in the 2012 Presidential election, have the potential to turn “Blue” either in 2016 or certainly by 2020.

North Carolina seems most likely to go for Hillary Clinton, followed by Georgia and possibly Arizona. Longer term, there is Texas.

With North Carolina having 15, Georgia having 16, Arizona having 11, and Texas having 38 electoral votes now, it is certain that all four will have MORE electoral votes starting in 2024.

And Florida, a “swing” state with constantly growing population, particularly of increased Puerto Rican migration, has 29 electoral votes through the 2020 Presidential election, and assuredly will have more in 2024.

So it is highly likely that the Democratic Party will have, for sure, over 400 electoral votes by 2020, and if not, by 2024, an Electoral College landslide for the long term!

Add the present 80 electoral votes of the four presently “Red” states to the 332 that Barack Obama had in 2012, and you get 412 electoral votes, and again, more by 2024 after the reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives and in the Electoral College after the Census of 2020!

Add the Midwestern states of Indiana (11) and Missouri (10) and you get 433 electoral votes to 105 for the Republicans, but again with probably more total electoral votes by gaining of population in the four Sunbelt states, even with the chance that Indiana and Missouri will not gain, and might lose a seat each.

So expect the chance that the total number of electoral votes could, and with the addition of Florida and California gaining seats as well, be in the high 430s!

Public Opinion Polls Show A Widening Lead For Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump, Even In “Swing” States!

Ronald 4 Comments

Here we are at the end of June 2016, and the public opinion polls show a widening lead for Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump, even in “Swing” states.

Donald Trump is self destructing, and this less than three weeks before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and Republicans running away from Trump in droves, wishing for an alternative, but realistically, not able to gain one, other than maybe voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, former Republican Governor of New Mexico and his running mate, William Weld, former Republican Governor of Massachusetts.

If this trend continues, the reality of a massive landslide seems inevitable, and it would have the effect of a 1964 landslide of Lyndon B. Johnson over Barry Goldwater.

North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia and Arizona, and even possibly Utah, seem possible to go for Hillary Clinton, an unheard of thought just a few months ago, and with Hillary Clinton winning every state that Barack Obama won in 2012.

That would mean an Electoral College total of 401 electoral votes, with 69 being added to the 332 that Obama gained in 2012, and it would mean 32 states and DC out of the 50 states.

Growing Possibility That Donald Trump Will Eventually Resign From Presidential Race When He Realizes He Cannot Win The Election!

Ronald 14 Comments

There are growing rumors that Donald Trump, who hates to lose, will eventually resign from the Presidential race, when he finally realizes that he cannot win the Presidency.

Of course, Trump is all bluster, and claims all of the polls are wrong, and that he will win “Blue” states, as well as “Swing” states.

But it is hard to believe that Trump is as clueless as he makes himself out to be in public gatherings!

Supposedly, there is a offer to pay Trump $150 million to withdraw, but Trump seemed to say that even five times that much would not make him withdraw, although if he were to be offered $5 billion, he would consider it!

In any case, Donald Trump has damaged the Republican Party irreparably, and the nation as well, with his poisonous candidacy!

Middle Class “Rust Belt” Voters (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin) Favor Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump

Ronald 1 Comment

Many Republicans seem to think that middle class “Rust Belt” voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin will abandon their strong support for Democrats in Presidential elections and vote for Donald Trump in 2016.

That is totally delusional, as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have been strongly “Blue” for the past six Presidential elections, and will not change this November.

Ohio is a different story, as it is the ultimate “Swing” state, and that is why Sherrod Brown, Ohio Democratic Senator, might be selected as Hillary Clinton’s Vice Presidential running mate.

If Donald Trump was able to convince Ohio Governor John Kasich or Ohio Senator Rob Portman, to be his running mate for Vice President, the odds of the Republicans winning Ohio would be vastly improved, but there seems to be zero chance of either Ohio Republican office holder taking up such an offer.

Polls so far make it clear that Hillary Clinton is strongly favored to carry all four “Rust Belt” states.

Tone And Temperament Harm Donald Trump With Voters, Will Prevent Expansion Of His Base!

Ronald 1 Comment

Donald Trump’s tone and temperament are harming his Presidential campaign, and will prevent expansion of his base beyond a percentage of Republican voters.

A Bloomberg poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 49-37 today, and that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson with 9 percent.

So if one assumes that Gary Johnson will wither in support, then it seems likely that Hillary Clinton will have a larger lead in the future than just 12 points.

If that happens, then we are on the way to an electoral landslide of massive proportions.

It is still, of course, much too early to predict that, but it is clear that Donald Trump’s tone and temperament are greatly undermining his candidacy, and if he does not pivot very soon, and change his tune of misogyny, nativism, racism, and xenophobia, there is no way that Trump can possibly win the Presidency.

He has very little of an organized campaign in the “swing” states, and lives in delusion that he can, somehow, compete and win in California and New York, the two largest “Blue” states.

Donald Trump is self defeating, and his failure to change his tone and temperament will doom him in November!

British Betting Odds On Democratic Vice Presidential Nominees

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If one goes by British betting odds, the list of potential Democratic Vice Presidential nominees is as follows:

In front is Julian Castro, former San Antonio Mayor, who is presently Secretary of Housing and Urban Development; followed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren; Virginia Senator Tim Kaine; Secretary of Labor Tom Perez (from Maryland); and former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (who was in the Democratic Presidential race).

After those five, the odds on others, in their order, are New Jersey Senator Cory Booker; Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown; and then Minnesota Senators Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar.

Looking at the list, the “safest” choices to make are Castro, Perez, O’Malley, Franken, and Klobuchar, as the first two are cabinet members and not potentially giving up a Senate seat; O’Malley is out of office; and Franken and Klobucar come from a solidly “blue” state that has a Democratic Governor able to appoint a Democratic replacement were either to be elected Vice President.

Warren and Booker come from states with Republican Governors, who would be able to appoint a Republican temporarily as their replacement, while Kaine and Brown comes from “swing states” with a Republican governor in Ohio, and a Democratic Governor in Virginia now under federal investigation in a state which would be Republican if not for northern Virginia’s strong Democratic bent.

Potential Third Party Or Independent Attempt To Deny Clinton or Trump 270 Electoral Votes!

Ronald 11 Comments

If it was left up to Bill Kristol of The Weekly Standard and other conservatives, they would love to form a third party or independent conservative movement to deny Democrat Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump the ability to win 270 electoral votes, the minimum needed to win the White House.

Such a strategy, a real long shot, would have Mitt Romney or Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse or Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton or Florida Senator Marco Rubio or someone else gain financial backing to work to win a few key “swing” states in a three way race, and throw the election to the House of Representatives.

This has not happened since 1824, when John Quincy Adams, the second place finisher, was declared the winner of the Presidency over Andrew Jackson, what became known as a “corrupt bargain”, and fueled the victory of Jackson over Adams in the Presidential Election of 1828.

The most disturbing part is that the Republicans, who control the majority of House delegations in the present Congress, could put that third party or independent nominee in the Oval Office, even if he ended up with the third most electoral and or popular votes, an unprecedented situation, which would be seen as a true “stealing” of the Presidency!

Potential White Male Vice Presidential Nominees For Hillary Clinton’s Presidential Campaign In 2016

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If Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton decides not to go “radical” and select a woman or a person of minority heritage as her Vice Presidential choice for the upcoming Presidential Election of 2016, she has a long list of potential white males to choose from.

She could go for a Senator from a “swing” state, including the following:

Virginia–Senator Mark Warner or Senator Tim Kaine

Ohio–Senator Sherrod Brown (who I projected on December 31 as the likely choice)

Florida–Senator Bill Nelson

But there are other potential nominees, including:

Incumbent Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, which I recommended on this blog in February 2015, and was interviewed about it by John Hockenberry of THE TAKEAWAY on National Public Radio on January 21 of this year, which can be found under “Interviews” on the right side of the blog

Senator Al Franken of Minnesota

Former Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut

Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon

Of these nine potential candidates, the most likely would seem to be Brown, Kaine, and Franken in that order.

Biden and Nelson will both be 74 this year, five years older than Hillary Clinton, while O’Malley opposed Hillary in the early primaries and Merkley is the only US Senator to have endorsed Bernie Sanders, making them less likely.

Warner seems less likely than Kaine from Virginia, due to his close race for reelection in 2014, one he almost lost, and Murphy, one of the brightest young liberals, is more of a “dark horse”, not mentioned by many, but a possible surprise choice.

Asian Americans: The Ultimate Swing Vote In Florida, Virginia, Nevada In the Presidential Election Of 2016, And Influence Nationally!

Ronald 2 Comments

One group that has not gained much attention in the fury of the Presidential Election campaign of 2016 are Asian Americans, the fastest growing group in America.

With a little more than 5 percent of the population, and rapidly growing in Florida, Virginia, and Nevada, and already substantial in New York, California, Illinois, Maryland, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado and other states, Asian Americans are very likely to play a pivotal role in who wins the Presidency.

Asian Americans could also affect Senate and House races, as they are very likely to vote, and the vast majority have tended to vote Democratic in recent years.  The growing numbers of Asian Americans in Central and South Florida, Northern Virginia, and the Las Vegas metropolitan area are likely to insure that those three key swing states should influence the Democratic candidate’s likelihood of winning the Presidency.

Many do not realize how  many different Asian groups are included–including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Filipino, as well as those from India, Pakistan and other nations in Asia.  Very accomplished and very dedicated to their civic duty to participate in the electoral battle is a great way to describe Asian Americans.

And the history of Asian Americans is always in the background–particularly the banning of Chinese immigration from 1882-1943, and the mistreatment of Japanese Americans in California early in the 20th century, and the forced internment of 110,000 Japanese Americans in World War II.

Asian Americans know that they must fight against nativism, racism, and religious discrimination, including those of Muslim faith.

So the Republican Party has a major problem in drawing Asian American support, with 73 percent voting for Barack Obama in 2012!