Northern Virginia

Asian Americans: The Ultimate Swing Vote In Florida, Virginia, Nevada In the Presidential Election Of 2016, And Influence Nationally!

Ronald 2 Comments

One group that has not gained much attention in the fury of the Presidential Election campaign of 2016 are Asian Americans, the fastest growing group in America.

With a little more than 5 percent of the population, and rapidly growing in Florida, Virginia, and Nevada, and already substantial in New York, California, Illinois, Maryland, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado and other states, Asian Americans are very likely to play a pivotal role in who wins the Presidency.

Asian Americans could also affect Senate and House races, as they are very likely to vote, and the vast majority have tended to vote Democratic in recent years.  The growing numbers of Asian Americans in Central and South Florida, Northern Virginia, and the Las Vegas metropolitan area are likely to insure that those three key swing states should influence the Democratic candidate’s likelihood of winning the Presidency.

Many do not realize how  many different Asian groups are included–including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Filipino, as well as those from India, Pakistan and other nations in Asia.  Very accomplished and very dedicated to their civic duty to participate in the electoral battle is a great way to describe Asian Americans.

And the history of Asian Americans is always in the background–particularly the banning of Chinese immigration from 1882-1943, and the mistreatment of Japanese Americans in California early in the 20th century, and the forced internment of 110,000 Japanese Americans in World War II.

Asian Americans know that they must fight against nativism, racism, and religious discrimination, including those of Muslim faith.

So the Republican Party has a major problem in drawing Asian American support, with 73 percent voting for Barack Obama in 2012!

The Complete Reversal Of American Politics: Republicans In The South, Democrats In Large Populated Northeastern, Midwestern And Western States!

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The defeat of Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu on Saturday marks the complete reversal of American politics from the years 1877 to the present.

After the Reconstruction of the South ended, with Union Army troops leaving, twelve years after the Civil War, the South became an area totally dominated by Democrats, resentful of the Republican Party, Abraham Lincoln, the Civil War defeat, and the passage of Amendments 13, 14, and 15, ending slavery, making blacks citizens, and giving the men the right to vote.

The South went into massive resistance, creating Jim Crow segregation to replace slavery, and until the election of Herbert Hoover in 1928 and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, it was always a solid Democratic South with no black voting, due to discriminatory state laws that were ignored by generations of the federal government. Hoover won much of the South due to his Catholic opponent, Alfred E. Smith, in 1928, and Eisenhower won over Adlai Stevenson twice in the 1950s due to his personal popularity and World War II D Day reputation.

But only when the Civil Rights Movement was in full swing, starting in the 1950s, and reaching its peak with the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 under Lyndon B. Johnson, did we see the beginning of a mass exodus of office holders and ordinary white population, to the Republican Party, starting with Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina in 1964, switching parties to back Republican Senator Barry Goldwater against President Lyndon B. Johnson.

As the Democrats started to lose power in the South, the nomination of Southern governors Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and the rise of “New South” Governors like them and others in the Democratic Party, slowed up the switch to the GOP.

But the election of Barack Obama, considered anathema in the South, has now led to the entire wiping out of Southern Democrats in Congress, except for black and Jewish members of the House in districts gerrymandered that give the Republicans more total Congressional and state legislative seats in the South. Only a few other white non jewish members of the House remain, and they are endangered in the political climate of the South in 2014.

Only Virginia has both its Senators and Governor (Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Terry McAuliffe) as Democrats, and only Florida has one other Democratic Senator, Bill Nelson at this point, as we enter 2015.

And both Virginia and Florida have Republican dominated legislatures, as well as the other states that made up the Confederate States of America.

And, of course, Florida includes the heavily Northern South Florida, and Virginia has the heavily Northern North Virginia, influenced by being part of the DC suburbs, and otherwise, these three Senators and one Governor would not be in public office.

So the complete reversal of a century and a half ago has occurred, and is unlikely to be changed for a generation or more, at the least.

This means that the South will remain as it is now for a generation or more, and that the issue of race nearly a century and a half ago, again stands out as the key difference that separates that section from the rest of the country.

Meanwhile, the heavily populated areas of the nation in the Northeast, Midwest and West are more Democratic than ever, and are unlikely to change either over time, creating political deadlock long term over the future, stifling change and creating constant political conflict and deadlock!

Ohio The Crucial State In Presidential Elections Since 1964! Republicans, Be Aware Of That Reality!

Ronald 1 Comment

Ohio, the “Buckeye” state, is the crucial state in Presidential elections since 1964, with the winner in Ohio going on to win the election, and reside in the White House!

This makes it essential for the Republican Party to take this into consideration, and to nominate an Ohioan for the Presidency in 2016. It also makes it essential for Democrats to fight tooth and nail to win this state, although they could win the Electoral College without Ohio.

A recent assessment of the Electoral College theorizes that the Democrats may have the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency in 2016, as the so called “blue” states add up to 257 electoral votes, including all of New England and the Northeast, down to the District of Columbia; the Midwest states of Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota; and the Western states of California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, and Hawaii. Add Virginia and its 13 electoral votes, and the fact that the state has gone “blue” in Senate and gubernatorial elections recently, and is influenced by the power of the Northern Virginia (DC suburbs) population, and you have the precise number of electoral votes needed.

But of course, the desire is not to barely win, so Ohio is crucial for Democrats, but also Republicans!

This author has said before that, therefore, the best choice for the GOP Presidential nomination is either Governor John Kasich or Senator Rob Portman, more than any others, but not even certain that either will run for the Presidency, or do well in the caucuses and primaries, starting in January 2016!

Kasich has accepted Medicaid funding for the poor in his state, and Portman has backed gay marriage after his son came out as gay, and these factors hurt both with the Tea Party base in the Republican Party.

On the other hand, Kasich has a long record of Congressional service in the past, and headed the House Budget Committee in the 1990s; and Portman was Budget Director under President George W. Bush.

Both are mild mannered, not the type to make outrageous or ridiculous or extremist statements, and both seem competent to serve as President, more than most of the other potential alternatives.

The GOP National Convention will be in Cleveland, and there is a good chance of the Democratic National Convention being in Columbus, so Ohio moves to the forefront as a major battleground for 2016, which should not be ignored by either party, but particularly the Republicans!

Realize that six Ohio Republicans went on to become President from 1868-1923—Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, James A. Garfield, William McKinley, William Howard Taft, and Warren G. Harding!

Will the GOP be smart enough to do the right thing? Don’t bet on it!

A Rational, Sensible Proposal: Two Californias, Two Texases, Two Floridas, Two New Yorks, Northern Virginia And Washington DC Unified As A State!

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There has been a lot of speculation and discussion about the creation of new states, and this was discussed in a post on July 4 on this blog.

However, despite the move toward a ballot measure to create SIX Californias, it will NOT happen, and neither will five Texases, nor three New Yorks, nor two Marylands, nor two Illinoises, nor two Pennsylvanias, and even another suggestion, two Colorados!

However, it is NOT unreasonable to suggest that there could be a division of the following states into two states each–California, Texas, Florida, and New York.

A Northern and Southern California would make sense, as the state is overly large, with 38 million people, with a division being the North California state would include San Francisco and Sacramento and the Silicon Valley, and Central California, while South California would include Los Angeles and San Diego, and the heavily populated areas around LA and San Diego.

A Northern and Southern Texas might be divided along the following lines—North Texas being the Panhandle and West Texas along with Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area; and South Texas including East Texas, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio and down to the Rio Grande River boundary line except for the Western area around El Paso, which would be in North Texas.

A division of New York would be the New York City counties, along with Long Island, and Westchester and Rockland Counties, a total of nine counties, with the other 53 counties North of the city of New York (including Albany, Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester) being named New Amsterdam, the original Dutch colony name.

A division of Florida would be Northern Florida and Central Florida as North Florida, and South Florida being the counties of the Keys, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties.

Finally, a good idea would be to add Northern Virginia to Washington DC, name it Columbia, and revive the old failed amendment for statehood for DC, by adding those northern Virginia suburbs to the nation’s capital, and ending the discrimination against the 700,000 residents of DC, by making them part of a state, with the state known as North Virginia!

No more Congressional seats in the House of Representatives would be created, except for the addition of the District of Columbia to the Northern Virginia suburbs, so there would be 436 House members, instead of 435. However, there would then be 55 states, creating ten new US Senators; requiring 56 instead of 51 Senators to be a majority; 61 instead of 55 to end filibuster on executive branch nominations; and 66 instead of 60 Senators to end all other filibusters.

Commentary on this is welcome!

Virginia Gubernatorial Race Going Democratic: Great Sign For 2014 And Beyond!

Ronald 5 Comments

The lead of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe, a close friend and fund raiser for the Clintons, over Republican Attorney General and gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia, is a great sign for the future of the Democratic Party.

Cuccinelli is a truly nightmare nominee, with his extremist right wing views, and his decision to invite Ted Cruz and Rand Paul into the state to campaign for him, signs of true desperation on his part, and a sign of why the GOP is losing its hold in Virginia.

Cuccinelli’s Lieutenant Governor nominee, preacher E W Jackson, is even more of a right wing lunatic than Cuccinelli, and it is clear that young people, minorities, college educated people, women, and those who believe in socially moderate views are not willing to tolerate such narrow minded and bigoted nominees as Cuccinelli and Jackson.

It has often been said that how Virginia goes in the odd year elections affects Congressional elections the next year, and that has often rang true.

So the Virginia election results, now seen as a massive victory for the Democrats, is a good sign that the state is turning more blue, particularly because of northern Virginia federal government workers, but also because the Republican Party has been unduly influenced by its Tea Party lunatics in that state, as well as nationally, and has led to the highest rate of disapproval for the GOP nationally in its entire history, 63 percent!

First Effort To Expand Gay Marriage Should Be To Promote It In Other “Blue” States!

Ronald 4 Comments

Now that gay marriage has been declared constitutional, and that gay Americans are entitled to the same benefits and privileges of straight couples, the next step should be to work to promote passage of gay marriage in the other 13 “Blue” states, states that voted for Barack Obama in 2012.

So far, the six New England states (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island); three Middle Atlantic states (New York, Maryland, Delaware); two Midwestern states (Iowa, Minnesota); and two Pacific Coast states (Washington, California) have accepted gay marriage as legal.

So 13 states have moved to adopt gay marriage, leaving 13 other states which voted Democratic in 2012. The list includes the following:

Middle Atlantic states–New Jersey, Pennsylvania
Southern states–Virginia, Florida
Midwestern states–Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Illinois
Mountain States–Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado
Pacific Coast states–Oregon, Hawaii

Some of these states should be fairly easy to prod in the direction of gay marriage, including New Jersey, Illinois, Colorado, Oregon, and Hawaii.

Other states will be more difficult, but are possible, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Mexico.

The toughest states to accomplish this goal are Virginia and Florida.

Republican Governors will fight to prevent gay marriage in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but if they can be defeated for reelection, if their horrible, anti women, anti labor, anti immigrant policies are made the issue.

Chris Christie is a greater barrier, but do not be surprised if after reelection in New Jersey, he moves in the direction of acceptance of gay marriage!

Northern Virginia and South Florida give a long range hope for those states to accept gay marriage down the road, but not anytime soon.

The struggle for acceptance of gay marriage in more states is a battle worth fighting! Already, about one third of the American people, more than 100 million, live in states that accept gay marriage. It is essential to make that percentage more than two thirds of all Americans, over the next decade!

Of course, there is always the possibility that the Supreme Court might move in the direction of a Loving V. Virginia wide scope decision, as with interracial marriage in 1967. But the state by state battle must, meanwhile, go on!

The Formal Beginning Of Barack Obama’s Presidential Re-election Campaign

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Although the Presidential campaign has been on for months, today, six months and one day before the election date, Barack Obama is formally beginning he re-election campaign with speeches at Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, and Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, Virginia.

Most of the campaign appearances for both Obama and his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, will be centered in both Ohio and Virginia, as Ohio is a state that every Republican winner of the Presidency has won, and Virginia, typically a Republican state in the past half century, has become a real battleground with the growth of the Northern Virginia population near Washington, DC, making the state more likely to go Democratic, as it did in 2008.

As stated elsewhere in this blog, those two states, along with North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada will be the most crucial states, as the seven “swing” states most likely to go either way at this point, but with all seven having gone to Obama in 2008.

Virginia And Florida: Two “Swing” States With Strong “Blue Areas”: Will It Be Enough For Barack Obama?

Ronald 1 Comment

Two “swing” states, crucial to the Presidential Election of 2012, are also Southern states, which have usually been fertile Republican territory, but not necessarily this time, as they were not in the Presidential Election of 2008.

Those two states are Virginia and Florida, where much of the battle for the Presidency will be centered over the next six months.

Virginia had voted Republican since after 1964, until Barack Obama won it in 2008. The key area that helped bring the Obama victory was northern Virginia, near Washington DC. This area has seen a continuous growth of federal government employees, many of them for the Pentagon in northern Virginia, but also other government workers who have settled in that area of the state. Additionally, many young people, African Americans, and Hispanics and Latinos have settled in Northern Virginia in recent years, and women have been alienated from the Republicans, due to the vaginal probe bill introduced by Governor Bob McDonnell, a leading candidate for the Vice Presidential nomination to run with Mitt Romney.

Virginia is really two states, and in that regard, not all that different than many other states, but the Northern Virginia vote was enough to give Obama the win in 2008, and right now, it seems likely that scenario will happen again in 2012.

Florida is another such case, with South Florida the “blue” area of the state, and helping Barack Obama to win the state in 2008, only the third time since the late 1960s to go to the Democrats (the other times being 1976 and 1996 when Southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton carried the state).

The margin of victory in Florida was gained by South Florida support, just as was so in Northern Virginia, and the growth of non Hispanic Cubans, plus the northeastern and Jewish influence in South Florida, seem likely to give Barack Obama another opportunity to gain the state in a close vote finish in November!

Virginia: A “Swing” State, Or Democratic In 2012 Presidential Election?

Ronald 1 Comment

Virginia is typically considered a Southern state, but as Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia terms it, it has become more like a Mid Atlantic state.

The reasons for this include:

1. Northern Virginia has become a substantial part of the population of the state, tends to be more liberal than the rest of the state, and many of the people living in Northern Virginia work for the federal government, are more educated, and tend to vote Democratic.

2. The minority population of the Virginia, of all ethnic groups, has gone up from 20 percent to 30 percent of the state, so if a large percentage of them vote, it is bound to benefit Barack Obama.

3. Virginia voted for Obama in 2008 by about six percent margin, and if the economy continues to improve, it is unlikely that the state will vote against Obama, when one considers the above two factors.

So the likelihood at this point is that the “swing state” of Virginia will stay in the Democratic column this fall, even though the state government is controlled by the Republicans. Presidential elections and state elections do not always synchronize in many states across the nation.

The Virginia Presidential Primary: Romney Vs Paul, With No One Else On Ballot!

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A weird development has set up the Virginia Presidential primary of March 6 to be a potential major factor in the GOP Presidential race.

Virginia is a “swing state” with a Republican state government stronger than ever before; with a Governor, Bob McDonnell, who is a potential Vice Presidential nominee; with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, thought to be supportive of the Tea Party struggles against Speaker of the House John Boehner; and a state with northern Virginia very liberal and the rest of the state more traditional Old South. It is a state that Barack Obama won, and is a crucial state for him to win in 2012.

Considering the significance of Virginia, one would think all seven GOP candidates for President would be on the ballot, but instead only TWO are to be listed–Mitt Romney, the candidate of “Establishment” Republicans; and Ron Paul, the libertarian and Tea Party, small government, and cutting back on interventions overseas, candidate!

Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry failed to gain enough ballot signatures, and Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Jon Huntsman chose not to compete at all in the state.

So, assuming the nomination has NOT been won already, which seems a highly likely scenario, this could be the ultimate battle in many ways of Nelson Rockefeller vs Barry Goldwater, modified of course, but definitely a battle for the soul of the Republican Party in 2012!