Pennsylvania

“Swing” States Becoming Fewer Every Election: Locking In Electoral Votes!

The number of “Swing” states in a Presidential election are becoming fewer in each four year cycle, and locking in the Electoral College outcome, to a much greater extent than ever before.

At this point, for the 2016 Presidential Election, it can be said there are ONLY ten states that are truly up for grabs, barring some unforeseen events:

These states are:
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Iowa
Indiana
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada

Even these ten states are not truly ten, as North Carolina for now is more likely to go Republican; New Hampshire and Iowa are more likely to go Democratic; Indiana is more likely to go Republican; and New Mexico is almost certainly Democratic!

So only Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada are truly “swing’ states for 2016, and most of the campaigning in the general election period will be in those five states, plus the other five more certain to be in one political camp over the other.

The Northeast and New England, with the exception of New Hampshire, are locked up for the Democrats, as are the Upper Midwest and Illinois, and the three Pacific Coast states and Hawaii!

The Great Plains states, the Mountain West except for the three states mentioned above, and the South, with the exceptions of the three states mentioned above, and West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, and Alaska seem locked up for the Republicans, making for more states than the Democrats, but many of them low electoral vote states. And when Texas and Georgia evolve, with more Hispanic-Latino voters in the next decade, the Electoral College will be locked up for the Democrats for the long haul, unless the GOP can convince many states’ voters to swing over from the Democrats, highly unlikely!

The move to allow states to vote by congressional district, as is so in Nebraska and Maine in theory, if it spreads to major states, such as Pennsylvania, where it has been proposed, COULD change the whole dynamic, and make for a much more competitive Electoral College race in the future!

The Battle Against The Homeless And Hungry: Live And Well In America!

In a nation in which there is so much emphasis on “Christian” heritage, we find many cities and towns have banned the homeless, and have made the feeding of the hungry a crime!

Fort Lauderdale, Florida, became infamous recently, when it arrested a 90 year old man for doing just that, and fined him for his charitable work!

But Fort Lauderdale is just the tip of the iceberg, no pun intended!

Among the localities that have taken the same despicable action are:

Birmingham, Alabama
Phoenix, Arizona
Los Angeles, California
Daytona Beach, Florida
Jacksonville, Florida
Orlando, Florida
St. Petersburg, Florida
Atlanta, Georgia
Indianapolis, Indiana
Baltimore, Maryland
St. Louis, Missouri
Charlotte, North Carolina
Las Vegas, Nevada
Dayton, Ohio
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Nashville, Tennessee
Dallas, Texas
Houston, Texas
Salt Lake City, Utah
Seattle, Washington

For a nation of so much stature as America is, this is totally reprehensible! We have so many poor people, and we treat them like dirt, blaming themselves for their poverty!

And for those who use religion, somehow, as a way to justify this immoral action, the statement to be made is: “There but for the grace of God go I!”

Governorships Turning “Blue” A Trend!

The Tea Party Movement won a lot of state governorships in the past four years, but the game is up, and many states with Republican Governors will see their repudiation next week, and this will have a positive effect on state primaries and caucuses in 2016, and insure that a majority of states, including most of the large populated states, with more electoral votes, will go “blue” and give us a Democratic President on Inauguration Day in 2017.

The following states should have Democratic Governors come January:

Maine–with the removal of Paul LePage
Pennsylvania–with the removal of Tom Corbett
Georgia–with the removal of Nathan Deal
Florida–with the removal of Rick Scott
Michigan–with the removal of Rick Snyder
Wisconsin–with the removal of Scott Walker
Kansas–with the removal of Sam Brownback

It will be a glorious moment when these seven Governors, so outrageously terrible in office, are retired from office against their will!

60 Days To Midterm Elections Of 2014, And Republicans On The Run!

Two months from now, the Midterm Elections of 2014 will occur, and at this point, the Republican Party is, rightfully, on the run!

They have demonstrated that they are only interested in obstruction, and to undermine any possibility of progress on crucial domestic issues, and unwilling to support Barack Obama on the massive challenges this nation faces in foreign policy!

The odds of a Republican Senate seem more unlikely, and  now Kansas offers the possibility of an Independent winning, and allying with the Democrats, bringing about the first non Republican Senator from that state since the Great Depression.

It also looks more likely that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will be forcibly retired, and we could end up with just about the same number of Democrats and Independents in the Senate, presently 55.

Republican Governors are also running scared, as with Scott Walker in Wisconsin, Rick Snyder in Michigan, Paul LePage in Maine, Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania.  Rick Scott in Florida,  and Nathan Deal in Georgia, therefore insuring a gain in Democratic Governors nationwide.

Disillusionment with the Republicans is obvious, and they are running scared, and they offer no real alternative, except negativism, and the Tea Party Movement has harmed their brand, an embarrassment to their history!

A Rational, Sensible Proposal: Two Californias, Two Texases, Two Floridas, Two New Yorks, Northern Virginia And Washington DC Unified As A State!

There has been a lot of speculation and discussion about the creation of new states, and this was discussed in a post on July 4 on this blog.

However, despite the move toward a ballot measure to create SIX Californias, it will NOT happen, and neither will five Texases, nor three New Yorks, nor two Marylands, nor two Illinoises, nor two Pennsylvanias, and even another suggestion, two Colorados!

However, it is NOT unreasonable to suggest that there could be a division of the following states into two states each–California, Texas, Florida, and New York.

A Northern and Southern California would make sense, as the state is overly large, with 38 million people, with a division being the North California state would include San Francisco and Sacramento and the Silicon Valley, and Central California, while South California would include Los Angeles and San Diego, and the heavily populated areas around LA and San Diego.

A Northern and Southern Texas might be divided along the following lines—North Texas being the Panhandle and West Texas along with Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area; and South Texas including East Texas, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio and down to the Rio Grande River boundary line except for the Western area around El Paso, which would be in North Texas.

A division of New York would be the New York City counties, along with Long Island, and Westchester and Rockland Counties, a total of nine counties, with the other 53 counties North of the city of New York (including Albany, Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester) being named New Amsterdam, the original Dutch colony name.

A division of Florida would be Northern Florida and Central Florida as North Florida, and South Florida being the counties of the Keys, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties.

Finally, a good idea would be to add Northern Virginia to Washington DC, name it Columbia, and revive the old failed amendment for statehood for DC, by adding those northern Virginia suburbs to the nation’s capital, and ending the discrimination against the 700,000 residents of DC, by making them part of a state, with the state known as North Virginia!

No more Congressional seats in the House of Representatives would be created, except for the addition of the District of Columbia to the Northern Virginia suburbs, so there would be 436 House members, instead of 435. However, there would then be 55 states, creating ten new US Senators; requiring 56 instead of 51 Senators to be a majority; 61 instead of 55 to end filibuster on executive branch nominations; and 66 instead of 60 Senators to end all other filibusters.

Commentary on this is welcome!

Republican Governors On The Run!

A number of Republican Governors, who have done a horrible job in office, are on the run, facing major challenges by Democratic opponents in November.

These include:

Rick Scott, facing a challenge from Charlie Crist in Florida.

Tom Corbett, facing a challenge from Tom Wolf in Pennsylvania.

Sam Brownback, facing a challenge from Paul Davis in Kansas.

Paul LePage, facing a challenge from Mike Michaud in Maine.

Scott Walker, facing a challenge from Mary Burke in Wisconsin.

Nathan Deal, facing a challenge from Jason Carter in Georgia.

Additionally, GOP gubernatorial nominee Greg Abbott, successor to Texas Governor Rick Perry, is facing a challenge from Wendy Davis.

Hopefully, many of these despicable GOP Governors, plus Greg Abbott in Texas, will lose in November!

Nations Breaking Up: Could It Happen Among American States?

We are living in a world where nation states have broken up, and where the potential for more such breakups is increasing.

Yugoslavia broke up into multiple nations in the 1990s, as did the old Soviet Union, and Czechoslovakia.

Sudan broke up into two nations in 2011, and Iraq seems on the road to a similar breakup, sadly through religious revolution, fanaticism and loss of life.

There has been the threat in the past of Quebec breaking away from Canada, although that seems less likely now.

Scotland will decide whether to split from the United Kingdom in a referendum this September.

There are threats of the breakup of Belgium and Spain, where strong nationality groups wish for independence.

At the same time, there has been secessionist talk by right wing groups in Texas, and even outgoing Governor Rick Perry talked up the idea a few years back, and then abandoned such talk.

But seriously, without violence, not like the Civil War in the 1860s, there are ideas floating out on the political wilderness of the possible future breakup of eight states, and the theoretical creation of an additional 16 states as a result, requiring an additional 32 US Senators, making the total possibly 132, instead of the present 100, in the upper chamber, while not changing the number of members of the House of Representatives.

These possibilities are as follows:

California–six states instead of one—Jefferson (rural Northern California); North California (centered about Sacramento, the state capital); Silicon Valley (San Francisco and San Jose); Central California (Bakersfield, Fresno and Stockton); West California (Los Angeles and Santa Barbara); and South California (San Diego and Orange Counties).

Texas–five states instead of one—New Texas (Austin, the present state capital and College Station); Trinity (Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington and Tyler); Gulfland (Houston, Corpus Christi, Galveston); Plainland (Lubbock, Amarillo, Waco, Abilene); and El Norte (San Antonio, El Paso, Brownsville).

New York–three states instead of one—Suburban counties of Southeast New York (Westchester, Rockland, Dutchess and Orange Counties) and Long Island (Nassau and Suffolk); New York City (Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, Bronx, Staten Island); and Upstate New York (including the rest of the state, including Rochester, Buffalo, Syracuse, Binghamton).

Florida—two states instead of one—South Florida (the Keys, Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach); and Northern Florida (the rest of the state).

Illinois–two states instead of one—Chicago and near suburbs; and the rest of the state.

Pennsylvania–two states instead of one—Philadelphia and near suburbs; and the rest of the state, including Pittsburgh and Harrisburg).

Virginia–two states instead of one—Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC; and the rest of the state.

Maryland–two states instead of one—Baltimore, Annapolis, and Washington DC suburban counties (including Montgomery and Prince George’s County) and three rural eastern shore counties; and Western Maryland.

Is any of this likely to happen? Probably not, but great food for thought. It would require revolutionary changes in the US Senate, and would create new issues of which party would benefit, the Democrats or the Republicans, since the major metropolitan areas would be separate from the more rural counties in these eight states, and it would create a new dynamic in American politics hard to predict long term!

Significant Fourths Of July, And The Most Important One Of All!

It has been 238 years since the Declaration of Independence, declared in Philadelphia on this day in 1776.

Some of the Fourth of Julys that have followed have been more significant than others.

In 1801, the 25th anniversary, the nation celebrated the first turnover of government to the opposition being conducted successfully four months earlier, as Thomas Jefferson succeeded John Adams.

In 1826, the 50th anniversary, Presidents John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, both intimately involved in the document’s formulation, died, during the administration of Adams’ son, John Quincy Adams.

In 1831, the 55th anniversary, President James Monroe died, marking three of the first five Presidents dying on Independence Day, but it has never occurred since then. This death occurred during the administration of Andrew Jackson.

In 1876, the nation celebrated its first century of independence during the administration of Ulysses S. Grant.

In 1901, the 125th anniversary, the nation celebrated the new century, during the administration of William McKinley.

In 1976, the bicentennial was celebrated during the administration of Gerald Ford.

In 2001, the 225th anniversary was celebrated during the administration of George W. Bush.

But none of these anniversaries mattered as much as July 4, 1863, the 87th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, as the Battle of Gettysburg in Pennsylvania, fought the three previous days, and won on July 3 by the Union Army over the Confederacy, insured that the Union would be preserved, the ultimate purpose of Abraham Lincoln leading the nation into the Civil War in 1861. The last real chance of the South to win independence was lost, although the war continued for another 21 months.

So July 4, 1863 is more to be celebrated than any other July 4, and we must remain thankful that those who wanted to break up the United States were overcome. We must be ready to react against any threat of further secession put forth by right wing propagandists who want America to lose its whole purpose of creation, the establishment of a democracy which would be the beacon for people all around the world, who would want to come here and be part of the American experiment in freedom. It is immigration that makes, and has made, America the great nation that it is!

Six Cities For Democrats and Four For Republicans Competing For 2016 National Conventions!

The bids are in for the two national conventions of the major political parties competing for the Presidency in 2016.

The Democrats have bids from Birmingham, Alabama; Cleveland, Ohio; Columbus, Ohio; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; New York City (Brooklyn); and Phoenix, Arizona.

The Republicans have bids from Cleveland, Ohio; Dallas, Texas: Denver, Colorado; and Kansas City, Missouri.

It would be interesting if both parties chose Cleveland, as the parties have, occasionally, chosen the same city for their conventions, but somehow, this author does not see either party actually choosing Cleveland.

What makes the most sense is to choose a city in a state that is competitive, or significant enough to be considered possibly a win for the political party involved.

Going on that assumption, it makes no sense for Birmingham, Alabama to be chosen by the Democrats.

New York City (Brooklyn) would be a popular favorite, but New York is guaranteed to the Democrat Presidential nominee in 2016.

Philadelphia would be a good choice, in a state which could be competitive, although the Democrats are a heavy favorite to win the state, so it seems unlikely as the choice that will be made.

So that leaves Columbus, Ohio and Phoenix, Arizona as the remaining choices, as both states are highly competitive, but with Ohio more likely to go Democratic, and being, in many ways, the key swing state.

So the prediction of this blogger is that Columbus will be the host for the Democratic National Convention, the capital city of the state, and a better choice, overall, than Cleveland would be.

As far as the Republicans are concerned, the best choice, in the opinion of the blogger, is Denver, Colorado, a true swing state, but Dallas would be the backup if the GOP wants to send the message just how important Texas is, as the danger of an eventual move toward becoming a “blue” state becomes more possible as the years go by.

So the emotional favorite for this author for the Democrats is his home of New York, which he left for Florida 25 years ago, but the likelihood that Columbus will be chosen, with a backup of Phoenix.

While the author has no emotional favorite for the Republicans, the likely emotional choice for them would be Dallas, but with the likelihood that Denver will be chosen, and doubtful for Kansas City and, particularly, for Cleveland!

We shall see how accurate the author is in his predictions of Columbus for the Democrats and Denver for the Republicans!

The Rise Of The Women Candidates In The Democratic Party!

Women already have 16 of their gender as Democrats in the US Senate, as compared to four Republicans.

Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire all face challenges, but are likely to win their reelection bids.

At the same time, Michelle Nunn in Georgia, Allison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, Natalie Tennant in West Virginia, and Shenna Bellows in Maine all have reasonable chance to win their races, with Tennant facing another woman, Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia; and Shenna Bellows facing another woman, Senator Susan Collins in Maine.

Meanwhile, in gubernatorial races, Wendy Davis in Texas; Allyson Schwartz in Pennsylvania; and Mary Burke in Wisconsin have competitive races for the Democrats!

The likelihood is that there will be at least 22 women in the Senate, with 18 being Democrats, in the 2015 Senate, and that at least one of the three Democratic women running for Governor will win, and possibly two of them!