Nevada

The Mormon Factor In The Electoral College Prognostications

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The Mormon Church (Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints) is an important factor in the American West.

Usually, Mormons as a group are conservative Republicans, but the odds are growing that states that would usually vote Republican might not vote for Donald Trump, due to his religious bigotry displayed toward Muslims, as Mormons suffered persecution in the 19th century on their trek to Salt Lake City, Utah, and Mitt Romney, himself a Mormon, is vehemently against Trump.

60 percent in Utah, 24 percent in Idaho, and 9 percent in Wyoming are Mormons,with 4-5 percent in Nevada, Arizona, and Montana. Only about 2 percent in America are Mormon, similar to Jews in population and percentage.

The most Mormon states are Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming, with a total of 13 electoral votes. Nevada, Arizona, and Montana follow, with a total of 20 electoral votes. All of these six states, except Nevada, have been reliably Republican.

So we are talking about a possible loss of 27 electoral votes, not counting Nevada’s six electoral votes.

Donald Trump cannot afford to lose these states, but he could, indeed, some or all of them going to Democrat Hillary Clinton over the religious issue!

Small States’ (One House Member And Two Senators) Influence In Congress Since 1945

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There are seven states that have had only one member of the House of Representatives, along with two US Senators, in the past 70 years. but despite their small populations, these states have had a massive impact on American politics and history!  In addition, for the first few decades since 1945, Nevada also had one House member until growth caused two, and then, three seats in the House.

The seven states are Vermont, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, and Alaska!

But North Dakota, South Dakota,and Montana had two members of the House until recent decades when reapportionment caused them to lose a second seat.

So only Vermont, Delaware, Wyoming, and Alaska (since 1959) stand alone as consistently having one House member and two Senators per state.

But look at their influence:

Vermont had George Aiken (R) (1941-1975) and has Patrick Leahy (D) for 41 years (1975 to Present) and counting now, and Bernie Sanders since 1990,  who  was the lone House member for 16 years before election to the Senate in 2006,making him the longest serving Independent in the history of both houses of Congress.  Also, Howard Dean, former Governor of the state, was a leading contender for the Democratic nomination in 2004, and then became head of the Democratic National Committee, and helped the rise of Barack Obama with a “50 state” strategy between 2004-2008.

Delaware had Joe Biden as Senator for six terms from 1973-2009, and now as Vice President.  He became one of the longest serving Senators of all time, and sought the Presidency in 1988 and 2008.

Wyoming had Dick Cheney as its lone Congressman for ten years from 1979-1989, before he ended up as Secretary of Defense under the first Bush Presidency, and Vice President in the second Bush Presidency.  Also, Alan Simpson served in the Senate from 1979-1997 as  a Republican, and Gale McGree from 1959-1977 as a Democrat.

Alaska had Ted Stevens in the Senate for 40 years from 1968 to 2009, the longest serving Republican Senator in American history.  Also, Sarah Palin , while Governor, was the Vice Presidential nominee for the Republicans in 2008.

And if one looks at the other states which had one Congressman at least for the last few decades, we have South Dakota and Senator George McGovern (1963-1981), the 1972 Democratic Presidential nominee; Montana, with Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield (D) (1953-1977) from 1961-1977; Nevada with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) (1987-Present) from 2007-2015; and North Dakota Senators Kent Conrad (1987-2013) and Bryan Dorgan (1992-2011).

So the “small” states have really had a major role in American politics, despite their small populations!

Asian Americans: The Ultimate Swing Vote In Florida, Virginia, Nevada In the Presidential Election Of 2016, And Influence Nationally!

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One group that has not gained much attention in the fury of the Presidential Election campaign of 2016 are Asian Americans, the fastest growing group in America.

With a little more than 5 percent of the population, and rapidly growing in Florida, Virginia, and Nevada, and already substantial in New York, California, Illinois, Maryland, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado and other states, Asian Americans are very likely to play a pivotal role in who wins the Presidency.

Asian Americans could also affect Senate and House races, as they are very likely to vote, and the vast majority have tended to vote Democratic in recent years.  The growing numbers of Asian Americans in Central and South Florida, Northern Virginia, and the Las Vegas metropolitan area are likely to insure that those three key swing states should influence the Democratic candidate’s likelihood of winning the Presidency.

Many do not realize how  many different Asian groups are included–including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Filipino, as well as those from India, Pakistan and other nations in Asia.  Very accomplished and very dedicated to their civic duty to participate in the electoral battle is a great way to describe Asian Americans.

And the history of Asian Americans is always in the background–particularly the banning of Chinese immigration from 1882-1943, and the mistreatment of Japanese Americans in California early in the 20th century, and the forced internment of 110,000 Japanese Americans in World War II.

Asian Americans know that they must fight against nativism, racism, and religious discrimination, including those of Muslim faith.

So the Republican Party has a major problem in drawing Asian American support, with 73 percent voting for Barack Obama in 2012!

The Need For A One Day National Presidential Primary In June Of Election Year, Ending The System That Presently Exists!

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The present Primary and Caucus system is a terrible method that encourages an inordinate amount of attention paid to “small” states with fewer people and an unusual mix of factors that distort and manipulate the process used to choose Presidential nominees.

Why should Iowa in a caucus and New Hampshire in a primary, and South Carolina and Nevada, all totally unrepresentative of the nation and of the political parties at large, have such a dramatic effect on the whole process of nominating Presidential candidates?

If anything, it should be “large” states that represent a diversity of America which, if we are to keep the present system, should go first, such as Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Missouri!

But a better alternative, if it could be arranged, which admittedly would be difficult, would be to have a National Primary Day in early June of the election year, similar to Election Day being in early November.

If this was arranged, there could be two to three weeks of early voting in May, as there is for the election in October.

If this idea was adopted, all campaigning would come to a peak over just a few weeks from early voting to the actual Primary Day, and it would better represent the parties as they get ready for the election, and would undermine extreme right and left from having the impact they often do because of the attention given to them by their being first to vote!

Presidential Ambitions, And Political Scandal Destroying Ambitions!

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The ambition to be President is a “disease” which hits many people who think they are a “gift” to the nation, due to their own egotism and arrogance.

We have at least five potential Presidential candidates in the Republican Party who have gone through this metamorphosis of potential candidate, to the point of being engaged in a political scandal, destroying the careers of three of them, and potentially having the same effect on two others.

In the 2012 Presidential cycle, we had:

Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, who became involved in a sex scandal with an Argentine woman, which forced him out of office, and ended his Presidential ambitions, although he is now back in Congress by vote of his Congressional district, from where he had emerged as Governor before his downfall.

Senator John Ensign of Nevada, who also had Presidential ambitions, destroyed by a sex scandal, now back in his veterinarian practice.

Most recently, we had Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia, whose Presidential ambitions went asunder, and now convicted of corruption, faces a prison term, a total downfall.

And then we have in the 2016 Presidential cycle two examples of ambition, egotism, and arrogance!

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are both involved in political scandals, but both seeking to run for President, with the likelihood of failure in their Presidential campaigns at the least, and possible legal issues for both of them at the most!

The Battle Against The Homeless And Hungry: Live And Well In America!

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In a nation in which there is so much emphasis on “Christian” heritage, we find many cities and towns have banned the homeless, and have made the feeding of the hungry a crime!

Fort Lauderdale, Florida, became infamous recently, when it arrested a 90 year old man for doing just that, and fined him for his charitable work!

But Fort Lauderdale is just the tip of the iceberg, no pun intended!

Among the localities that have taken the same despicable action are:

Birmingham, Alabama
Phoenix, Arizona
Los Angeles, California
Daytona Beach, Florida
Jacksonville, Florida
Orlando, Florida
St. Petersburg, Florida
Atlanta, Georgia
Indianapolis, Indiana
Baltimore, Maryland
St. Louis, Missouri
Charlotte, North Carolina
Las Vegas, Nevada
Dayton, Ohio
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Nashville, Tennessee
Dallas, Texas
Houston, Texas
Salt Lake City, Utah
Seattle, Washington

For a nation of so much stature as America is, this is totally reprehensible! We have so many poor people, and we treat them like dirt, blaming themselves for their poverty!

And for those who use religion, somehow, as a way to justify this immoral action, the statement to be made is: “There but for the grace of God go I!”

Imagine A Presidential Election Battle Without Any Previous Candidates In The Race!

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The thought has crossed this blogger’s mind what it would be like if for once, just once, no one who had previously competed for the Presidential nomination of either party, nor had been a Vice Presidential running mate, became involved in the upcoming Presidential Election campaign of 2016.

Think of who would be eliminated from consideration:

Democrats (8)–Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Jerry Brown, John Kerry, Howard Dean, Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich

Republicans (11)–Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, John Kasich

Who would be left to compete?

Democrats (13)–Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kirsten Gillibrand, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Mark Warner, Corey Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Jay Nixon, John Hickenlooper, Brian Schweitzer, Deval Patrick, Rahm Emanuel

Republicans (13)–Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Peter King, Mike Pence, Rob Portman, Scott Walker, Brian Sandoval, Susana Martinez, Nikki Haley

One can wonder who would be competitive for the Presidential nominations, and who would galvanize support among the population and go on to be the nominees of the two major political parties!

We would have a true “donnybrook” situation, with anyone having the potential to be the nominees, “catch fire”, and go on to be the 45th President of the United States!

If this author was to venture an educated guess, one would come to the following conclusions:

Democrats–The major battle would be among Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley and Mark Warner.

Republicans–The major battle would be among Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Mike Pence and Rob Portman.

The final battle would be between Warren and O’Malley for the Democratic nomination, and between Marco Rubio and Mike Pence for the Republican nomination.

The two finalists would be Martin O’Malley and Marco Rubio, with O’Malley being the winner and the 45th President of the United States!

This is due to the reality of the Electoral College, which strongly favors the Democrats to win the White House in 2016 and beyond, as the Northeast, New England, Upper Midwest, and Pacific Coast are strongly “Blue”, and most of the “swing states” are favored to go “Blue” as well, including Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, and Iowa.

Florida and North Carolina would be more difficult for the Democrats, particularly if Rubio is the GOP nominee, but the electoral vote would still be heavily Democratic, even without those two states!

Political Reality: Those Accused Of Corruption Invariably Are Guilty Of Charges, Not Innocent!

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We constantly see political corruption arise to the surface, and the saying is that corruption is as American as Apple Pie!

We are seeing, and have seen, governors, mayors, state legislators, and members of Congress, and even the executive branch, accused of corruption, exposed, and most often, forced out of office over time!

So when we hear that Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, Scott Walker and others are being investigated for corruption of one kind or another, face the facts! Almost certainly, they are guilty as charged, but of course they deny it and fight it.

But it means their political careers are usually over, with an occasional exception such as Senator David Vitter of Louisiana, involved with a prostitution madam, but still reelected to the Senate, and now planning to run for Governor!

In certain states, corruption is more rampant than elsewhere, although it is endemic to American politics. But states such as Louisiana, Illinois, New Jersey, Nevada, Arizona, West Virginia, South Carolina, Texas, Massachusetts, Florida and New York have more than their fair share of crooked politicians of one kind or another!

Right Wing Extremist Groups Multiply Eight Times Since Barack Obama Became President!

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With the tragic news of two police officers murdered in Nevada over the weekend by an extremist right wing couple connected to the Cliven Bundy showoff with the Bureau of Land Management two months ago, it is more clear than ever how dangerous so called “patriot” groups, white supremacists, secessionists, and racists are to the political stability of this country! This is the Ku Klux Klan, Nazi elements, and the John Birch Society remnants come back to life, as if they ever had disappeared!

Statisics show an over 800 percent increase in such groups since Barack Obama became President, and the Republican extremists in the House of Representatives and the Senate, plus the right wing talk shows hosts on radio and Fox News Channel and guests that encourage such bigotry, racism, and fear of the national government, are responsible for what is happening, as they make our President out to be the devil incarnate!

Respect for the government, for law, and for law enforcement officers, has rapidly declined, and more acquisition of firearms by extremists who plot against the government and the police, presents an alarming situation.

And as has been demonstrated by the Secret Service, and other sources, death threats against President Obama continue to multiply, increasing the chances that just one time, it might succeed, and lead to a horrible tragedy.

This author has stated this before, that we must stop the hate, the division, the bigotry, and condemn those who promote it, as we do not wish or need another tragedy, such as the tragedy a half century ago in Dallas, when our youngest President ever elected, and the first Roman Catholic, John F. Kennedy, was brutally assassinated, a tragedy we are still unable to recover from in a complete fashion!

Cliven Bundy And Republican Move Toward Anarchism And Domestic Terrorism Support!

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Cliven Bundy is a rancher in Nevada who has had his cattle grazing on federal land for years, and has refused to pay about $1 million in taxes to the Bureau of Land Management.

Bundy has gathered a group of gun toting haters of the federal government and its authority to control use of federal lands, and they have declared that they do not accept the authority of the federal government. In a confrontation a week ago, the Bureau of Land Management decided to back away as weapons were brandished, signs were aplenty, and women and children were being gathered as a front line of defense against action by the federal government to enforce federal law and authority.

This is an absolutely horrifying situation, and there is fear that violence will ensue when the time comes that the US government determines it will follow through on assertion of federal authority, and the collection of federal taxes due by this lawbreaker, Cliven Bundy.

If the US government does not enforce the law against Cliven Bundy, it will be seen as weak, indecisive, and having been intimidated by a hoodlum who has taken the law into his own hands, and has brought out right wing lunatics to back him up, and yet is cowardly enough to put women and children in the front line of defense! It will convince other ranchers who have obeyed the law and paid their taxes to wonder why they should continue to do so, if Cliven Bundy can bully the government and get away with it!

What is even more troubling than this is that Republicans, including Nevada Senator Dean Heller, usually a fairly moderate person, is backing Cliven Bundy, as is Texas gubernatorial nominee Greg Abbott, the present Texas Attorney General. And reckless right wing Fox News Channel talk show host Sean Hannity has been egging on Cliven Bundy, endorsing his illegal activities and his attack on the US government!

Hannity is inciting violence and riots, is conducting himself as outside the obeying of federal law, and should be condemned for that advocacy, if bloodshed breaks out. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is absolutely correct in calling what is going on as “Domestic Terrorism.”

The Republican Party is starting to move toward endorsement of anarchism, domestic terrorism, law breaking, and if there is a confrontation, which seems inevitable at some point, the Republican Party had better back away from the image that is developing, as if they are seen as endorsing Cliven Bundy over the federal government, that will be the final nail in the coffin of the party of Lincoln, TR, Ike, and even Reagan.

Abraham Lincoln is turning over in his grave right now!