Mitt Romney

512 Paths To White House For Barack Obama; 76 Paths To White House For Mitt Romney

Ronald 5 Comments

The New York Times and Nate Silver today list 512 Paths to the White House for Barack Obama, and 76 Paths to the White House for Mitt Romney in graph form, using different combinations of “swing” or “battleground” states to demonstrate the various paths.

Leave it to Nate SIlver, the most brilliant political statistician in America, who continues to say that Obama has an 85 percent chance of winning a second term, while Romney has a 15 percent chance of winning the White House.

Ultimately, in about 36-48 hours, we should know whether Nate Silver remains the “genius”, or is indeed a “paper tiger”!

Bet on Nate Silver would be this author’s advice!

Final Projection On Presidential Race: Obama-Biden 332 Electoral Votes, Romney-Ryan 206 Electoral Votes

Ronald 6 Comments

This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.

Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.

The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!

So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.

Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.

It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.

Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.

Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.

This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.

Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!

Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!

Mitt Romney Shows His True Character, With His Campaign Criticizing New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

Ronald 1 Comment

Mitt Romney’s campaign is rapidly imploding, and Romney’s spokesman is now criticizing New Jersey Governor Chris Christie for praising President Barack Obama for his quick response to Hurricane Sandy, including touring the area of devastation with Christie.

Rupert Murdoch and other conservatives are already laying the base for blaming Romney’s defeat on Christie, and Romney aides are claiming that Christie is annoyed that he was bypassed for Vice President.

This whole event just demonstrates further how Romney is not fit to be our President, since he does not give a damn for the “47 percent”, and for the Northeast, since he knows he will not be gaining their electoral support on Tuesday. The fact that Christie is doing what he needs to do for his state does not seem to cross Romney’s selfish, mean spirited personality, but it is clear that he is not the proper person to lead us into the future!

Final US Senate Projections: Democrats Gain One Seat, Should Have A Margin Of 54-46

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This author has stated in the past couple of weeks that the US Senate would stay Democratic, and that seems more certain now than ever.

With any gain by Mitt Romney in polls stopped by Hurricane Sandy and the working of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with President Barack Obama, it seems likely that the Democrats will win what was predicted before, a one seat gain. In some states, the popularity of the Democratic Senate candidate might actually carry Obama over the top, rather than the other way around.

So here are my final projections:

The Republicans have ten seats up for election, and will keep six–but lose in Arizona, with Democrat Richard Carmona defeating Republican Jeff Flake; in Indiana, with Democrat Joe Donnelly defeating Republican Richard Mourdock; in Maine, with Independent Angus King defeating his two opponents in the major parties; and in Massachusetts, where Democrat Elizabeth Warren will defeat Scott Brown.

The Democrats have 23 seats up for reelection, and should keep eleven without any trouble, leaving 12 up for play, and are likely to win five others that are in contention—Bill Nelson in Florida; Debbie Stebanow in Michigan; Claire McCaskill in Missouri; Jon Tester in Montana; and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

That leaves seven seats which will definitely have a new Senator–and Virginia should see Democrat Tim Kaine defeat Republican George Allen; Democrat Chris Murphy win over Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut; Democrat Tammy Baldwin defeat Republican Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin; and Democrat Mazie Hirono defeat Republican Linda Lingle in Hawaii.

However, three other Democratic seats will probably be lost, regrettably—including Democrat Bob Kerrey losing to Republican Deb Fischer, a Tea Party favorite in Nebraska; Democrat Martin Heinrich losing to Republican Heather Wilson in New Mexico; and Democrat Heidi Heitkamp losing to Republican Rick Berg in North Dakota.

So this all adds up to four seats taken from the Republicans, but three seats taken from the Democrats, so that adds up to a Senate of:

54 Democrats (including Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine)
46 Republicans

So therefore a ONE SEAT gain by the Democrats!

American Jews, Israel And Barack Obama: Why Two Thirds Of Jews Will Support Obama Over Mitt Romney

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With two days to go until the election, the Republican Jewish Coalition has been actively trying to convince American Jews that Barack Obama is not supportive of Israel, and that they should support Mitt Romney for President.

Will the RJC succeed? To some extent, yes, in the sense that while 78 percent of American Jews backed Barack Obama in 2008, the number will be down to about 60-63 percent in 2012.

There are those Jews who are extremely wealthy and do not wish to pay more taxes, such as the group which met in Boca Raton, at the infamous gathering where Romney talked about the “47 percent”. Those who are corporate, Wall Street, and banking related will wish to have the government abandon any regulations, so they can go about their merry way abusing their industries, as they did in 2008. and earlier, without any care for the damage they were doing to the American economy!

Those who are highly religious will use it as a means to promote prejudice, based on the belief that Obama is a secret Muslim, and of course, being black, is not a plus to highly religious people, whether Jewish or Christian, a sad commentary on what the meaning of religion is all about!

Those who look at Israel as the number one issue will wish to allow Benjamin Netanyahu to influence American policy, even though if any other foreign leader ever attempted to interfere as Netanyahu has, they would be infuriated by such boldness of a foreign leader!

But American Jews, while caring about Israel, will not allow Netanyahu, or religiosity, or counting their money, to be the key factors in their voting. So yes, the percentage will be down, but Jews who do not allow any of the above to influence them will remember that Obama and his party are the party of the New Deal and Great Society reforms, which Romney and the Republicans wish to destroy!

They will know that it was REPUBLICAN Presidents who made life much more difficult for Israel, including Dwight D. Eisenhower, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, even though the RJC conveniently manipulates the truth about that

They will know that Defense Minister Ehud Barak (a former Prime Minister); Shimon Peres (Israel’s President); Haaretz (the oldest Israeli daily newspaper); Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel; and most prominent American Jewish leaders have all endorsed Obama, or said that he has been the best friend of Israel of all American Presidents.

They will know that most American Presidents either never visited Israel, or not in their first term, despite the lies of the RJC.

They will know that Obama has supplied Israel with the IRONDOME missile defense system, and more than $3.1 billion in security spending beyond that, and has defended Israel consistently in international organizations, including the United Nations.

They know that George W. Bush also talked about the 1967 borders as a beginning point for negotiations, the same thing that Barack Obama said.

They know the Jewish tradition of being activists in civil rights; of supporting women’s rights; of being big promoters of labor unions; of being involved in promoting education and the environment on a regular basis; and advocates of aid to the disabled; and of always being against the negativism of the Republican Party on domestic matters, always resisting Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid and every other social, economic and political reform the Democrats have promoted over the past century.

They know that the party of the people is NOT the Republicans, but the Democrats, and they are not about to abandon the party that has done so much good, particularly when we could see the alternative of the most right wing threat in American history since Barry Goldwater in 1964!

American Jews are OVERWHELMINGLY oriented toward reform, progress, change, compassion for those who are discriminated against and less fortunate, and they are intelligent and wise enough not to vote for the party of Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and right wing evangelicals who wish to take away our civil liberties and civil rights!

So close to two thirds of American Jews will repudiate the RJC, and support their President, Barack Obama!

Nate Silver Convincing That Barack Obama Will Be Reelected President On Tuesday

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Nate Silver, the most legitimate prognosticator on the American political scene, who writes for the NY TIMES, has upped the ante on the reelection of Barack Obama to the White House with his declaration that the odds for Obama have been raised to 85 percent, based on 19 of 22 polls in the “swing states” in the past few days, showing him ahead.

Silver has always put Obama in the lead, but now, after Hurricane Sandy, his odds of winning have gone up.

So despite the Gallup and Rasmussen polls that show a near deadlock, Silver claims that Mitt Romney winning is a real gamble, and would not be worth a bet, unless one is prepared to lose a large amount of money!

We all know about the Gallup polls of 1948, which were totally wrong, but this is NOT 1948, and the thought is that the Gallup and Rasmussen polls are wrong, and that Nate Silver and the polls that show Obama winning are correct.

This author has always believed that Obama would win, based on his record, and the multiple faults and weaknesses of Mitt Romney and his campaign.

In about 60 hours, we shall know!

The REAL Issues Of 2012 That Are Being Ignored In The Presidential Campaign

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If one follows the Presidential campaign of 2012, one would think that ONLY the economy matters.

YES, the economy matters, but the newest jobs report demonstrates that this nation is on the mend, and that over the next Presidential term, the economy will recover, with some experts saying that up to 12 million jobs will be created, whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney wins the White House on Tuesday.

Others would say the danger of Iran is the major issue, but even on that, it is clear that both Obama and Romney would react similarly to an actual Iranian attack on Israel or any other part of the Middle East.

So the REAL issues are not the economy or Iran!

Instead, they are the following, although ignored in campaign rhetoric:

Climate Change or Global Warming—the reality of it, as demonstrated yet again by Hurricane Sandy, and the need to take the lead in moving away from oil and coal as the major energy resources. But, of course, Republicans and conservatives deny the reality of this threat, and the oil and coal industries do everything they can to protect themselves at the expense of the nation in the long run.

Gun Violence—as demonstrated by what happened so many times in the past few years, including Tucson, Arizona in 2011 to Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords; the mass murders in the Aurora, Colorado movie complex in 2012; the constant murders in cities such as Chicago, often ignored because the victims are African Americans; and so many other cases. And again, the Republicans and conservatives fight any type of gun control, and allow the National Rifle Association to hold America hostage.

Education—the dire need to promote more people attending and graduating four year colleges and universities. Many would say that having a four year degree does not guarantee that one gets the job he wants or needs. While that is true, the unemployment figures make clear that those with a four year degree or more have an unemployment rate under FOUR percent, while those with less education or dropping out of school have an unemployment rate of TWELVE percent! Is there any evidence other than this to convince parents and children of the urgency of getting an education through a four year degree? And besides, there are intangibles other than just getting a degree for a job, such as improving one’s basic skills of reading, writing, and speaking, and improving one’s mind and knowledge; making one a better person in social situations and parent situations; and raising people up from ignorance, conspiracy theory beliefs, and over reliance on religious doctrine, which unfortunately makes many people unwilling to reason for themselves, and just accept gospel as absolute fact. And of course, Republicans and conservatives argue against extra funding and assistance for education, and would prefer to lean on organized religion to “control” the masses, keep them ignorant, and willing, therefore, to accept ideas without questioning or challenge!

The Supreme Court—not understood by many for the important role it plays, and will continue to play, and the urgency of having a President who will select nominees who wish to look to the future, and not the past, and prevent regression politically, socially, and economically back to the Gilded Age and the 1920s. The Republicans and conservatives and Mitt Romney want more Antonin Scalias, Clarence Thomases, and Samuel Alitos, to insure that we go backward for the next 30 years! So the election of Barack Obama is urgent for the future of constitutional law and the preservation of the advancements of the Earl Warren and Warren Burger Supreme Courts.

These issues mentioned above SHOULD be understood before people, who have not voted before Tuesday, vote for our next President, and the best decision for any sane individual is to vote for the candidate who represents a willingness to deal with the future, President Barack Obama!

Obama Aided Greatly By Events Of The Past Week: Colin Powell, Chris Christie, Michael Bloomberg

Ronald 1 Comment

Barack Obama is closing out his Presidential campaign with some fortunate developments and an image of dealing with the crisis of Hurricane Sandy in a very effective manner.

First, he received the endorsement of Republican former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who despite working for George W. Bush, has kept his credibility and his stature as a great American.

Then, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who had been a key backer of Mitt Romney, put politics aside, worked with President Obama on hurricane relief, and highly praised Obama, who he finally got to know well, and the two men bonded. Christie is still a Romney backer, but showed bipartisanship and statesmanship, which is sorely needed.

And today, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, after first planning not to endorse any candidate for President, changed his mind, and gave his support to Obama because of his stand on abortion rights, gay rights, and climate change. In the process, the former Republican, and former Democrat, now an Independent mayor, criticized Mitt Romney for having abandoned all of his earlier moderate principles, including support of his own RomneyCare in Massachusetts, once it became ObamaCare.

The tragedy of a natural disaster helped to lead to the second and third events, and the support of both Powell and Bloomberg, and the growing friendship and relationship between Obama and Christie, are developments that give hope for a better future, if Obama can be reelected, and these steps help to bring that desired result next Tuesday!

And the criticism of the right wing on radio, Fox News, and in print is something to be totally ignored, as their hate and divisiveness needs to be totally repudiated by sane, intelligent, open minded people! Good riddance, Rush Limbaugh, Michael Savage, Glenn Beck, and the rest of the hate mongers who earn millions dividing America, instead of uniting it!

Traits We Need In Our President: Competence, Compassion, Empathy, Sincerity—Barack Obama Possesses All Four, While Mitt Romney “Maybe” At Most Has Competence!

Ronald 2 Comments

Essential qualities needed in an American President, particularly in this 21st century of a complex world, and a growing population of what is now 315 million people, would include:

Competence
Compassion
Empathy
Sincerity

We need a leader who demonstrates care about ALL of us, not just the elite and wealthy!

We need a leader who has known struggle in his life at some point–such as Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama—whether it is:

Family Problems And Issues While Growing To Adulthood—Truman, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Obama
Personal Health Issues—Roosevelt, Kennedy
Major Challenges To Success—Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, Reagan, Obama

Only the two Bushes really did not have major family problems while growing to adulthood; personal health issues; or major challenges to success.

But even they had compassion and empathy for the disabled (the elder Bush), and for the victims of September 11 (the younger Bush), although later, both the elder and younger Bush botched up the emergency of Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Katrina in a massive wave of incompetence!

Barack Obama possesses all of these qualities mentioned above, while Mitt Romney has not proved his worth in these regards, even so much as competence as Massachusetts Governor, although he has rose colored glasses in looking back on what was, basically, a term in office that made him so unpopular he could not have won reelection as Governor of his state had he decided to run!

Mitt Romney, simply, does not have the qualities needed for our Presidency in the 21st century. He lacks, for sure, compassion, empathy, and sincerity!

He is much more like Herbert Hoover, and yet, even Herbert Hoover first became famous for reacting properly in human tragedies in the time of the Mississippi River Flood of 1927, the massive Soviet relief effort in the 1920s, and the Belgian relief effort in World War I!

So we would have to push Romney back to the Gilded Age of monopoly capitalism, before the Progressive Era ended the concept of a limited government, which had ignored the needs of its citizens en masse!

The 20th century dawned, and the battle for the federal government to play a major role in people’s lives began, and we are not about to revert to the late 19th century!

Sorry, Mr. Romney, your attempt to go back one hundred years and more to the worst times of the Gilded Age is rejected, and YOU ARE FIRED as a potential President of the United States this coming Tuesday, November 6, 2012!

Republicans Have Lost Credibility: Barack Obama Has Proved He Has Competence And Empathy, Winning Factors For Presidential Race

Ronald 2 Comments

The Republican Party has been arguing for four years that President Barack Obama is incompetent, and that he does not care about the American people.

It has been a false argument from Day One, but the tragedy of Hurricane Sandy has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Obama is an extremely competent, courageous leader, who can relate to the crises in ordinary people’s lives, something that George W. Bush displayed that he had no ability to do the same, as in Hurricane Katrina; and something that Mitt Romney has proved throughout the Presidential campaign that he even lacks the gene to care, and to relate to people who are not wealthy and part of his “one percent” class!

Barack Obama has now proved, except for the hate mongers and racists, that he is as able to relate to us, the common folk, as Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry Truman demonstrated regularly!

Like them, he will be elected in difficult times, and with many polls saying he is not favored, to another term as President, with the American people demanding that the opposition start realizing that we all insist on COOPERATION and UNITY, on the scale that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is, courageously, demonstrating to his credit!